Hello all, I'm going to list my lines and values first, with ytd updates and this weeks plays later today.
Away Team__PS__My PS__Value
Home Team_Total_MyTotal_Value
Packers__+3__+3.99__Vikings .99 Value
Vikings___56__50.65__Under 5.35 Value
Could be a shoot-out, I'm not betting the Under
Raiders__+7.5__+5.57__Raiders 1.93 Value
Chiefs____59____51.51__Under 7.49 Value
30 points per team is quite a bit, though these teams have been involved in games doing just that lately. Winds 10-20 and freezing temps may make the Under a play though. Ace-Ace loves the Chiefs this week, which is probably reason enough not to bet the Raiders, lol.
Broncos__-4__-6.88__Broncos 2.88 Value
Titans___50.5__44.5__Under 6.5 Value
The Titans string of staying in games with tons of offense may come to end in this one. Are the Broncos going to perform to their earlier level at all for the rest of the season? Maybe they just don't have the talent. Still, the Titans are still very injured, especially on the defensive side. The Broncos really need to get some momentum started this week. Temps at 20 degress will help the Under.
Ravens___+5__+4.53__Ravens .97 Value
Steelers___34___37.02_Over 3.02 Value
Should be a defensive battle, so I'm not betting the Over, except maybe in a teaser. I liked the Ravens more earlier in the week, now I don't consider them that strong of a play, and I'll probably hedge back half of what I bet.
Bears___+6__+10.83__Lions 4.83 Value
Lions____36___34.22__Under 1.78 Value
There's been a simple formula for success in the last month, bet against the Bears (barring the Minny debacle). No reason to buck the trend this week, the Bears stink.
Giants___+6.5__ +7.5__Bengals 1.00 Value
Bengals__44____42.46__Under 1.54 Value
Proceed at your own risk.
Chargers__+7__+6.45__Chargers .55 Value
Colts_____57___54.16*__Under 2.84 Value
Honestly, I wouldn't play the Chargers in a 10 point teaser this week. Peyton will get the record this week, and then some. *Any time I get a total from my spreadsheet up that high, I like to bet the Over.
Texans__+7__+6.31__Texans .69 Value
Jaguars__37.5__40.09_Over 2.59 Value
Texans won the previous matchup, and I liked the Jaguars laying 7 only vs. the Bears, lol. I do like the Over a little bit here.
Panthers__+3__+.35__Panthers 2.65 Value
Bucs_____39.5__38.8_Under .70 Value
Should be close, I'll take the points.
Falcons__+4.5__+2.79__Falcons 1.71 Value
Saints___44.5___43.71__Under .79 Value
Even without Vick, if I had to choose, I'd take the FG+ and hope the Atl. D. keeps them in the game. I think W. Dunn is the only healty rb for Atl., though.
Patriots__-2__+3.26__Jets 5.26 Value
Jets_____43__43.85__Over .85 Value
The Pats were exposed a bit last week, their defense just isn't up to snuff right now, and Brady couldn't get the job done late. Jets win by a field goal.
Bills___-11.5__-9.34__49ers 2.16 Value
49ers___44___36.28__Under 7.72 Value
See my Week 16 early plays thread for the reasons I love the Under in this one. Plus, 60% chance of rain and 10-15 mphs wind forecasted. 49ers did lose a couple more players to injury, but the Bills are not an offensive juggernaut, despite the large number of points they've been putting up lately.
Redskins__-2__+1.78__Cowboys 3.78 Value
Cowboys__37___36.93_Under .07 Value
My final line ended up being the books opening line. Hmm. Earlier in the week I had a line favoring the 'Skins, and I'd bet them at -1. With their improved play, I'll stick with that pick.
Cardinals__+7__+5.35__Cardinals 1.65 Value
Seahawks__43.5_39.64__Under 3.86 Value
60% chance of rain, but I can't see taking the Under here, both teams too volatile. The Seahawks need to see that little man in Oz about getting a heart. I see the Cards matching their intensity this week as they are both alive in the division race.
Browns___+7__+3__Browns +4 Value
Dolphins__40.5_37.31_Under 3.19 Value
Wait a second, the Dolphins win their 3rd game of the year, and all of a sudden they're a touchdown favorite? I don't think so, even if it is against the woeful Brownies. McCown is getting more snaps under his belt and should be improving a little bit. Take the Browns and the Under.
Eagles__+2.5__-2.14__Eagles 4.64 Value
Rams___47____46.87__Under .13 Value
The Rams, quite simply, blow. The Eagles may be out to prove this week that they can score without TO. Maybe they will, maybe the won't, lol, but their D. will still send Bulger back to the bench with a sore ass. I even gave the Rams 3 points vs. the spread as a Christmas bonus "Must Win" game. Even still, I have the Eagles winning outright.
Away Team__PS__My PS__Value
Home Team_Total_MyTotal_Value
Packers__+3__+3.99__Vikings .99 Value
Vikings___56__50.65__Under 5.35 Value
Could be a shoot-out, I'm not betting the Under
Raiders__+7.5__+5.57__Raiders 1.93 Value
Chiefs____59____51.51__Under 7.49 Value
30 points per team is quite a bit, though these teams have been involved in games doing just that lately. Winds 10-20 and freezing temps may make the Under a play though. Ace-Ace loves the Chiefs this week, which is probably reason enough not to bet the Raiders, lol.
Broncos__-4__-6.88__Broncos 2.88 Value
Titans___50.5__44.5__Under 6.5 Value
The Titans string of staying in games with tons of offense may come to end in this one. Are the Broncos going to perform to their earlier level at all for the rest of the season? Maybe they just don't have the talent. Still, the Titans are still very injured, especially on the defensive side. The Broncos really need to get some momentum started this week. Temps at 20 degress will help the Under.
Ravens___+5__+4.53__Ravens .97 Value
Steelers___34___37.02_Over 3.02 Value
Should be a defensive battle, so I'm not betting the Over, except maybe in a teaser. I liked the Ravens more earlier in the week, now I don't consider them that strong of a play, and I'll probably hedge back half of what I bet.
Bears___+6__+10.83__Lions 4.83 Value
Lions____36___34.22__Under 1.78 Value
There's been a simple formula for success in the last month, bet against the Bears (barring the Minny debacle). No reason to buck the trend this week, the Bears stink.
Giants___+6.5__ +7.5__Bengals 1.00 Value
Bengals__44____42.46__Under 1.54 Value
Proceed at your own risk.
Chargers__+7__+6.45__Chargers .55 Value
Colts_____57___54.16*__Under 2.84 Value
Honestly, I wouldn't play the Chargers in a 10 point teaser this week. Peyton will get the record this week, and then some. *Any time I get a total from my spreadsheet up that high, I like to bet the Over.
Texans__+7__+6.31__Texans .69 Value
Jaguars__37.5__40.09_Over 2.59 Value
Texans won the previous matchup, and I liked the Jaguars laying 7 only vs. the Bears, lol. I do like the Over a little bit here.
Panthers__+3__+.35__Panthers 2.65 Value
Bucs_____39.5__38.8_Under .70 Value
Should be close, I'll take the points.
Falcons__+4.5__+2.79__Falcons 1.71 Value
Saints___44.5___43.71__Under .79 Value
Even without Vick, if I had to choose, I'd take the FG+ and hope the Atl. D. keeps them in the game. I think W. Dunn is the only healty rb for Atl., though.
Patriots__-2__+3.26__Jets 5.26 Value
Jets_____43__43.85__Over .85 Value
The Pats were exposed a bit last week, their defense just isn't up to snuff right now, and Brady couldn't get the job done late. Jets win by a field goal.
Bills___-11.5__-9.34__49ers 2.16 Value
49ers___44___36.28__Under 7.72 Value
See my Week 16 early plays thread for the reasons I love the Under in this one. Plus, 60% chance of rain and 10-15 mphs wind forecasted. 49ers did lose a couple more players to injury, but the Bills are not an offensive juggernaut, despite the large number of points they've been putting up lately.
Redskins__-2__+1.78__Cowboys 3.78 Value
Cowboys__37___36.93_Under .07 Value
My final line ended up being the books opening line. Hmm. Earlier in the week I had a line favoring the 'Skins, and I'd bet them at -1. With their improved play, I'll stick with that pick.
Cardinals__+7__+5.35__Cardinals 1.65 Value
Seahawks__43.5_39.64__Under 3.86 Value
60% chance of rain, but I can't see taking the Under here, both teams too volatile. The Seahawks need to see that little man in Oz about getting a heart. I see the Cards matching their intensity this week as they are both alive in the division race.
Browns___+7__+3__Browns +4 Value
Dolphins__40.5_37.31_Under 3.19 Value
Wait a second, the Dolphins win their 3rd game of the year, and all of a sudden they're a touchdown favorite? I don't think so, even if it is against the woeful Brownies. McCown is getting more snaps under his belt and should be improving a little bit. Take the Browns and the Under.
Eagles__+2.5__-2.14__Eagles 4.64 Value
Rams___47____46.87__Under .13 Value
The Rams, quite simply, blow. The Eagles may be out to prove this week that they can score without TO. Maybe they will, maybe the won't, lol, but their D. will still send Bulger back to the bench with a sore ass. I even gave the Rams 3 points vs. the spread as a Christmas bonus "Must Win" game. Even still, I have the Eagles winning outright.
