Recap of last week's plays
Top Plays
3Team 10Point Teaser--Den-1/Jets+15.5/NE-1-3 Units-W
2Team 7Point Teaser--Balt.-2.5/Colts-3-2 Units-W
Balt/NYG Over 32.5-1.5 Units-W
Chiefs +2-1.5 Units-W
2ndary Plays
KC/Ten Over 52-1 Unit-W
Jaguars-7_1 Unit-W
Chargers-5_1 Unit-W
Panthers-6.5_1 Unit-W
NE/Cincy Over44_1 Unit-W
Saints+7_1 Unit-W
NO/Dallas Over 46.5_1 Unit-L
Pitt/NYJ Over 35.5_1 Unit-L
Wash+15/Browns+16_1 Unit-L
Lions+15.5/Vikes-.5_1 Unit-L
Wash+15/Lions+15_1 Unit-W
Jets+6_1 Unit-L
YearToDate=81.5-60.5-1 +21 Units
Recap of what I do: I put box scores into Excel, which calculates point spreads and totals for me based on my formulas. I add injuries and weather to the spreadsheet as well. My program is quite extensive and rates performances for each team not just per matchup, but according to how each opponent has done against all of it's other opponents as well. I used to post here 4 years ago, I think I might have been "TheSportsCruncher" back then, but I forgot my login, lol. I won the "Who's Da Man" contest one week with an earlier version of my current spreadsheet program. I lost my hard drive and program after that season, and not until this summer did I attempt to redesign it. It's now much bigger and more detailed than my previous version.
Back then I posted a long story of when I'd worked at a SportsBook that offered a Sunday/Monday Night parley card that let you parley the 1st and 2nd halfs with the game total on sides and totals. You bet the 3-team parley on both sides and totals -- 1st H, 2nd H, Game, and only had to win 1st and 2nd H. to win the 3-teamer, so you could hedge at half time if you wanted. It was the most broken bet ever, and I took my own employer for thousands of dollars before they cancelled the card with a few weeks left in the season. Anyway, a year after I'd quit there, I ran into one of the assistant managers. He was rather inebriated at the time, but he told me, after I'd asked, that the SB top managers had been in on the scam. It was a mom and pop SB, and they'd designed the card. I don't know if they were in on it, but I know they were both working for a Cal-Neva book 3 months after the football season ended. I may write a screenplay about the whole thing sometime, it was an interesting time in my life, to say the least! Moving on to this week's lines...
Away Team__PS__My PS__Side Value
Home Team_Total_MyTotal_Total Value
Steelers_-10__-10.95__Steelers .95 Value
Giants___34___37.40__Over 3.40 Value
Giants D. injured & in shambles, Pitts. 28 points on offense and 7 points on defense = the Over, I reckon, lol. Good defenses have hammered the Giants the last 2 weeks, this should be more of the same.
Redskins_-5.5__-4.16__49ers 1.34 Value
49ers____37____33.51_Under 3.49 Value
After updating injuries, I don't like the 'Skins as a play so much anymore. I did get them at -3 buying the hook, so I'll just stick with that play, and the Under.
Panthers__+3.5__+1.48__Panthers 2.02 Value
Falcons___42.5___40.76__Under 1.74 Value
Now that Duckett's out for Atl. and the way Carolina's been improving, they just might cover that spread.
Seahawks_+6.5__+9.45__Jets 2.95 Value
Jets______40.5__42.82__Over 2.32 Value
The betting this week is finally shifting towards the Jets in this game, as well it should. Against a banged up D, the Jets offense should get back on track this week, and the Jets D. is just plain consistent week in and week out.
Cowboys__+12.5__+13.34__Eagles .84 Value
Eagles____45.5___44.83___Under .67 Value
Will the Eagles let up and give the Cowboys a back door cover in this one? It's entirely possible, but I think the Eagles will at least get the victory, so I've got them in the big tease.
Vikings__-3__-.04__Lions 2.96 Value
Lions____49__43.95_Under 5.05 Value
I do like the Under here, as both teams have been inconsistent on offense. I can't go with my computer's pick of the Lions here because Harrington has been so inconsistent. If anything I'd take the Vikings.
Chargers__-10__-8.09__Browns 1.91 Value
Browns____42__43.66__Over 1.66 Value
Well, after the Browns put up 17 yards of offense last week, you obviously can't play them or the Over this week, lol
Bills___-1__-1.91__Bills .91 Value
Bengals_43.5_40.91_Under 2.59 Value
The improving Palmer having to sit this one may be enough to give Buffalo the victory this week, though Kitna is no slouch, of course. The Buffalo defense could be the other dfference maker in this game.
Jaguars__+3.5__+1.65__Jaguars 1.85 Value
Packers__39____42_____Over 3.00 Value
Jags have been flying under the radar all season long, not always playing up to their potential OR getting the public to play on them much, so they've always had pretty good line value. Packers have been playing to the level of their competition, generally, so I like taking the points in this one. I'm not playing the Over, because the weather could be bad and the Jags tend to play low-scoring games.
Texans__+1_-3.5__Texans 4.5 Value
Bears___35__35.95_Over .95 Value
Urlacher is out and the Bears still have a week offense. Texans have done poorly on the road versus good teams. So, yeah, I think they win this one. Carr hasn't had a good game in quite some time, I can only hope that he gets back on track in this one.
Saints__+8.08__8___Bucs.08 Value
Bucs____44___41.39_Under 2.61 Value
After injury updates, I don't like the Saints anymore, so I'm going to tease the Bucs and hope to catch the middle. The Bucs did outgain SD by 100 yards last week.
Rams____-3__+4.13__Cards 7.13 Value
Cardinals_41.5_39.59__Under 1.91 Value
No word yet whether Bulger, Fault, or S. Jackson will play this week and the line has still gone up to 3? Is there something I'm missing here? No, seriously! Folks, the Rams have been just as bad as the Cards, so I don't know why they are 3 point favorites on the road.
Titans___+2.5__+4.23__Raiders 1.73 Value
Raiders__47.5__45.37__Under 2.13 Value
Sign me up for the Drew Crew! That kid knows how to catch the ball. You can't bet the Raiders right now, so don't even think about it. I'm leary of the Under in any game with the Titans, as well.
Ravens__+8__+5.42__Ravens 2.58 Value
Colts____49___48.37_Under .63 Value
Ravens looking better on Offense now with Todd Heap and Jamal Lewis back. Boller plays alright against poor defenses, just look out for Freeney coming at your blind side!
Broncos__-1__-3.33__Broncos 2.33 Value
Chiefs___52.5_50.19_Under 2.31 Value
I like how the Chiefs played defense last game. Realizing they couldn't cover anyone, they just blitzed over and over and hoped for the best, lol! Volek had an amazing game--he can unload in a hurry--the Titans should have won. Plummer will rollout a lot in this game too, could open up some big plays for the Broncos. He'll have to throw the hot receiver, though, if the Chiefs come from the ends again, though. I think the Denver d. makes the difference in this game and they get the road victory.
Patriots__-9.5__-11.99__Patriots 2.49 Value
Dolphins__41___41.63__Over .63 Value
You have to be a little afraid of the better teams letting up late in games this week, that's why I'm hoping the big teasers I'm playing are the best way to play these playoff bound teams.
Plays in the next post.
Top Plays
3Team 10Point Teaser--Den-1/Jets+15.5/NE-1-3 Units-W
2Team 7Point Teaser--Balt.-2.5/Colts-3-2 Units-W
Balt/NYG Over 32.5-1.5 Units-W
Chiefs +2-1.5 Units-W
2ndary Plays
KC/Ten Over 52-1 Unit-W
Jaguars-7_1 Unit-W
Chargers-5_1 Unit-W
Panthers-6.5_1 Unit-W
NE/Cincy Over44_1 Unit-W
Saints+7_1 Unit-W
NO/Dallas Over 46.5_1 Unit-L
Pitt/NYJ Over 35.5_1 Unit-L
Wash+15/Browns+16_1 Unit-L
Lions+15.5/Vikes-.5_1 Unit-L
Wash+15/Lions+15_1 Unit-W
Jets+6_1 Unit-L
YearToDate=81.5-60.5-1 +21 Units
Recap of what I do: I put box scores into Excel, which calculates point spreads and totals for me based on my formulas. I add injuries and weather to the spreadsheet as well. My program is quite extensive and rates performances for each team not just per matchup, but according to how each opponent has done against all of it's other opponents as well. I used to post here 4 years ago, I think I might have been "TheSportsCruncher" back then, but I forgot my login, lol. I won the "Who's Da Man" contest one week with an earlier version of my current spreadsheet program. I lost my hard drive and program after that season, and not until this summer did I attempt to redesign it. It's now much bigger and more detailed than my previous version.
Back then I posted a long story of when I'd worked at a SportsBook that offered a Sunday/Monday Night parley card that let you parley the 1st and 2nd halfs with the game total on sides and totals. You bet the 3-team parley on both sides and totals -- 1st H, 2nd H, Game, and only had to win 1st and 2nd H. to win the 3-teamer, so you could hedge at half time if you wanted. It was the most broken bet ever, and I took my own employer for thousands of dollars before they cancelled the card with a few weeks left in the season. Anyway, a year after I'd quit there, I ran into one of the assistant managers. He was rather inebriated at the time, but he told me, after I'd asked, that the SB top managers had been in on the scam. It was a mom and pop SB, and they'd designed the card. I don't know if they were in on it, but I know they were both working for a Cal-Neva book 3 months after the football season ended. I may write a screenplay about the whole thing sometime, it was an interesting time in my life, to say the least! Moving on to this week's lines...
Away Team__PS__My PS__Side Value
Home Team_Total_MyTotal_Total Value
Steelers_-10__-10.95__Steelers .95 Value
Giants___34___37.40__Over 3.40 Value
Giants D. injured & in shambles, Pitts. 28 points on offense and 7 points on defense = the Over, I reckon, lol. Good defenses have hammered the Giants the last 2 weeks, this should be more of the same.
Redskins_-5.5__-4.16__49ers 1.34 Value
49ers____37____33.51_Under 3.49 Value
After updating injuries, I don't like the 'Skins as a play so much anymore. I did get them at -3 buying the hook, so I'll just stick with that play, and the Under.
Panthers__+3.5__+1.48__Panthers 2.02 Value
Falcons___42.5___40.76__Under 1.74 Value
Now that Duckett's out for Atl. and the way Carolina's been improving, they just might cover that spread.
Seahawks_+6.5__+9.45__Jets 2.95 Value
Jets______40.5__42.82__Over 2.32 Value
The betting this week is finally shifting towards the Jets in this game, as well it should. Against a banged up D, the Jets offense should get back on track this week, and the Jets D. is just plain consistent week in and week out.
Cowboys__+12.5__+13.34__Eagles .84 Value
Eagles____45.5___44.83___Under .67 Value
Will the Eagles let up and give the Cowboys a back door cover in this one? It's entirely possible, but I think the Eagles will at least get the victory, so I've got them in the big tease.
Vikings__-3__-.04__Lions 2.96 Value
Lions____49__43.95_Under 5.05 Value
I do like the Under here, as both teams have been inconsistent on offense. I can't go with my computer's pick of the Lions here because Harrington has been so inconsistent. If anything I'd take the Vikings.
Chargers__-10__-8.09__Browns 1.91 Value
Browns____42__43.66__Over 1.66 Value
Well, after the Browns put up 17 yards of offense last week, you obviously can't play them or the Over this week, lol
Bills___-1__-1.91__Bills .91 Value
Bengals_43.5_40.91_Under 2.59 Value
The improving Palmer having to sit this one may be enough to give Buffalo the victory this week, though Kitna is no slouch, of course. The Buffalo defense could be the other dfference maker in this game.
Jaguars__+3.5__+1.65__Jaguars 1.85 Value
Packers__39____42_____Over 3.00 Value
Jags have been flying under the radar all season long, not always playing up to their potential OR getting the public to play on them much, so they've always had pretty good line value. Packers have been playing to the level of their competition, generally, so I like taking the points in this one. I'm not playing the Over, because the weather could be bad and the Jags tend to play low-scoring games.
Texans__+1_-3.5__Texans 4.5 Value
Bears___35__35.95_Over .95 Value
Urlacher is out and the Bears still have a week offense. Texans have done poorly on the road versus good teams. So, yeah, I think they win this one. Carr hasn't had a good game in quite some time, I can only hope that he gets back on track in this one.
Saints__+8.08__8___Bucs.08 Value
Bucs____44___41.39_Under 2.61 Value
After injury updates, I don't like the Saints anymore, so I'm going to tease the Bucs and hope to catch the middle. The Bucs did outgain SD by 100 yards last week.
Rams____-3__+4.13__Cards 7.13 Value
Cardinals_41.5_39.59__Under 1.91 Value
No word yet whether Bulger, Fault, or S. Jackson will play this week and the line has still gone up to 3? Is there something I'm missing here? No, seriously! Folks, the Rams have been just as bad as the Cards, so I don't know why they are 3 point favorites on the road.
Titans___+2.5__+4.23__Raiders 1.73 Value
Raiders__47.5__45.37__Under 2.13 Value
Sign me up for the Drew Crew! That kid knows how to catch the ball. You can't bet the Raiders right now, so don't even think about it. I'm leary of the Under in any game with the Titans, as well.
Ravens__+8__+5.42__Ravens 2.58 Value
Colts____49___48.37_Under .63 Value
Ravens looking better on Offense now with Todd Heap and Jamal Lewis back. Boller plays alright against poor defenses, just look out for Freeney coming at your blind side!
Broncos__-1__-3.33__Broncos 2.33 Value
Chiefs___52.5_50.19_Under 2.31 Value
I like how the Chiefs played defense last game. Realizing they couldn't cover anyone, they just blitzed over and over and hoped for the best, lol! Volek had an amazing game--he can unload in a hurry--the Titans should have won. Plummer will rollout a lot in this game too, could open up some big plays for the Broncos. He'll have to throw the hot receiver, though, if the Chiefs come from the ends again, though. I think the Denver d. makes the difference in this game and they get the road victory.
Patriots__-9.5__-11.99__Patriots 2.49 Value
Dolphins__41___41.63__Over .63 Value
You have to be a little afraid of the better teams letting up late in games this week, that's why I'm hoping the big teasers I'm playing are the best way to play these playoff bound teams.
Plays in the next post.
