[h=1]Week 15 fantasy projections[/h][h=3]Carson Palmer, Reggie Bush and Marques Colston look like good starts[/h]By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders
If you're still coming here for lineup advice, that means you're still alive in the playoffs, so congratulations for making it this far. Here's hoping we can help get you to the next round. The players with the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 15 are as follows:
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Carson Palmer (plus-5 points)
Palmer once again had a productive fantasy day against Denver last week despite -- no, because of -- his team getting throttled. During Oakland's current six-game losing streak, he's thrown multiple touchdown passes five times. This week, he faces a Kansas City pass defense that ranks 27th in DVOA, 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and has given up the third most passing touchdowns in the league.
Josh Freeman (plus-3 points)
<offer>In Week 7 against the Saints, Freeman produced his best fantasy game of the season, throwing for 420 yards and three touchdowns. Since then, the Saints' defense has improved slightly, but they still rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Last week, Eli Manning posted 24.7 points, and the Saints have given up an average of -- wait for it -- 24.7 points to quarterbacks in their past three home games.
<!-- begin inline 1 --> [h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Matthew Stafford (minus-6 points)
Lost in the utter embarrassment of last week's 58-0 loss in Seattle is the fact Arizona's pass defense allowed only 10.6 fantasy points to Russell Wilson. The game before that, they picked off Mark Sanchez three times, and ushered in a short-lived Greg McElroy era. Granted, neither Wilson nor Sanchez is on a pass-heavy offense like Stafford, but the Cardinals also limited Matt Ryan to 4.8 points in Week 11. Overall, Arizona's pass defense ranks second in DVOA and fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Reggie Bush (plus-3 points) and Daniel Thomas (plus-2 points)
This duo has been relatively quiet recently, but let's not forget that their past three games have been against Seattle, New England and San Francisco. In Week 15, they finally get a much-needed breather in the form of the Jacksonville run defense. The Jaguars rank 28th in run defense DVOA, and allow the third most fantasy points to opposing backs.
David Wilson (plus-1 point)
With Ahmad Bradshaw's status uncertain, Wilson may very well be the Giants' workhorse back this week. If so, he's an attractive option against an Atlanta Falcons run defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Bryce Brown (plus-1 point)
We listed Brown as our "Fall Back to Earth" player of the week last week, but even we didn't think he'd fall back that hard (2.0 fantasy points against Tampa Bay). This week should be the proverbial "bounce back" game, as Cincinnati ranks 26th in run defense DVOA, and has given up double-digit fantasy points to every No. 1 running back not named Ryan Mathews over the past month.
Vick Ballard (minus-2 points)
The Houston Texans might be getting shredded on pass defense recently, but their run defense has held up well. In fact, they haven't allowed more than 80 yards to an opposing back since Week 4. Also of note in the context of a running back like Ballard, the Texans rank seventh in pass defense DVOA on running back targets.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Marques Colston (plus-1 point) and Lance Moore (plus-1 point)
<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Tampa Bay has a defense against which you shut down your running game in favor of throwing it every down. For New Orleans, that just means it can run its normal offense, which is great news for Colston owners. The Buccaneers rank 24th in pass defense DVOA, dead last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and this duo combined for 25.4 points against them in Week 7.
Denarius Moore (plus-1 point) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (plus-1 point)
Since scoring 16.0 points in Week 10, Moore has done a disappearing act, scoring 20.5 total points over his past four games. The good news for both Moore and Heyward-Bey is that, when these two teams played in Week 8, the duo combined for 26.5 points. Especially promising for Moore is that Kansas City ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA against No. 1 wideouts.
Randall Cobb (minus-1 point), Jordy Nelson (minus-1 point) and Greg Jennings (minus-1 point)
It seems like Green Bay wideouts show up every week in this piece, either having a great matchup (like last week) or a bad matchup (like this week). Despite their recent slump, Chicago remains the No. 1 pass defense in terms of DVOA, and the Bears are currently sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Hakeem Nicks (minus-1 point)
Nicks has been picking up touchdowns here and there, but he really hasn't been himself since his Week 2 injury. Unfortunately, the Falcons' pass defense has given up only six touchdowns to wide receivers all season, which is the fewest in the league. In terms of DVOA, Atlanta's pass defense ranks 10th, seventh against No. 1 wideouts and third against No. 2 wideouts.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Brandon Myers (plus-1 point)
Kansas City's pass defense may be in the middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but -- as I mentioned above -- they're 27th in pass defense DVOA. Just two weeks ago, Myers had 19.0 points against a Cleveland Browns pass defense that gives up the fourth fewest points to tight ends.
Tony Scheffler (minus-1 point)
In contrast, file this one under, "I don't trust our own numbers." As mentioned previously, Arizona has the second best pass defense according to DVOA, which should depress Stafford's output somewhat. However, since Titus Young's benching, Lions tight ends have averaged 15 targets per game, and, after Brandon Pettigrew's injury in the first quarter of last week's game against Green Bay, Scheffler got 10 targets, scoring 8.0 fantasy points.
[h=3]Elite players[/h]Finally, below is the list of the week's elite fantasy players I've left out of the tables, as well as their actual plus-minus scores. I recommend starting these players regardless of their matchups, but this information could come in handy if you're in a league with shallow rosters or are particularly flush with talent at a given position:
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 15 Projections For Elite Players[/h]
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If you're still coming here for lineup advice, that means you're still alive in the playoffs, so congratulations for making it this far. Here's hoping we can help get you to the next round. The players with the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 15 are as follows:
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Carson Palmer (plus-5 points)
Palmer once again had a productive fantasy day against Denver last week despite -- no, because of -- his team getting throttled. During Oakland's current six-game losing streak, he's thrown multiple touchdown passes five times. This week, he faces a Kansas City pass defense that ranks 27th in DVOA, 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and has given up the third most passing touchdowns in the league.
Josh Freeman (plus-3 points)
<offer>In Week 7 against the Saints, Freeman produced his best fantasy game of the season, throwing for 420 yards and three touchdowns. Since then, the Saints' defense has improved slightly, but they still rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Last week, Eli Manning posted 24.7 points, and the Saints have given up an average of -- wait for it -- 24.7 points to quarterbacks in their past three home games.
<!-- begin inline 1 --> [h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
| Pos | Team | Name | +/- Fan. Pts. |
| QB | OAK | Carson Palmer | +5 |
| QB | HOU | Matt Schaub | +5 |
| QB | MIA | Ryan Tannehill | +3 |
| QB | CIN | Andy Dalton | +3 |
| QB | TB | Josh Freeman | +3 |
| RB | MIA | Reggie Bush | +3 |
| RB | OAK | Darren McFadden | +3 |
| RB | MIA | Daniel Thomas | +2 |
| QB | STL | Sam Bradford | +2 |
| RB | ATL | Michael Turner | +1 |
| WR | OAK | Denarius Moore | +1 |
| QB | MIA | Matt Moore | +1 |
| WR | MIA | Brian Hartline | +1 |
| RB | PHI | Bryce Brown | +1 |
| RB | NYG | David Wilson | +1 |
| TE | OAK | Brandon Myers | +1 |
| WR | OAK | Darrius Heyward-Bey | +1 |
| WR | NO | Marques Colston | +1 |
| WR | MIA | Davone Bess | +1 |
| QB | KC | Brady Quinn | +1 |
| WR | NO | Lance Moore | +1 |
| WR | STL | Danny Amendola | +1 |
| WR | STL | Brandon Gibson | +1 |
| WR | HOU | Kevin Walter | +1 |
| WR | STL | Chris Givens | +1 |
| TE | MIA | Anthony Fasano | +1 |
| WR | TB | Mike Williams | +1 |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Matthew Stafford (minus-6 points)
Lost in the utter embarrassment of last week's 58-0 loss in Seattle is the fact Arizona's pass defense allowed only 10.6 fantasy points to Russell Wilson. The game before that, they picked off Mark Sanchez three times, and ushered in a short-lived Greg McElroy era. Granted, neither Wilson nor Sanchez is on a pass-heavy offense like Stafford, but the Cardinals also limited Matt Ryan to 4.8 points in Week 11. Overall, Arizona's pass defense ranks second in DVOA and fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Reggie Bush (plus-3 points) and Daniel Thomas (plus-2 points)
This duo has been relatively quiet recently, but let's not forget that their past three games have been against Seattle, New England and San Francisco. In Week 15, they finally get a much-needed breather in the form of the Jacksonville run defense. The Jaguars rank 28th in run defense DVOA, and allow the third most fantasy points to opposing backs.
David Wilson (plus-1 point)
With Ahmad Bradshaw's status uncertain, Wilson may very well be the Giants' workhorse back this week. If so, he's an attractive option against an Atlanta Falcons run defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Bryce Brown (plus-1 point)
We listed Brown as our "Fall Back to Earth" player of the week last week, but even we didn't think he'd fall back that hard (2.0 fantasy points against Tampa Bay). This week should be the proverbial "bounce back" game, as Cincinnati ranks 26th in run defense DVOA, and has given up double-digit fantasy points to every No. 1 running back not named Ryan Mathews over the past month.
Vick Ballard (minus-2 points)
The Houston Texans might be getting shredded on pass defense recently, but their run defense has held up well. In fact, they haven't allowed more than 80 yards to an opposing back since Week 4. Also of note in the context of a running back like Ballard, the Texans rank seventh in pass defense DVOA on running back targets.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Marques Colston (plus-1 point) and Lance Moore (plus-1 point)
<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
| Pos | Team | Name | +/- Fan. Pts. |
| QB | DET | Matthew Stafford | -6 |
| QB | IND | Andrew Luck | -6 |
| QB | BAL | Joe Flacco | -3 |
| QB | BUF | Ryan Fitzpatrick | -3 |
| QB | TEN | Jake Locker | -3 |
| RB | IND | Vick Ballard | -2 |
| QB | NYG | Eli Manning | -2 |
| RB | JAC | Montell Owens | -2 |
| RB | CIN | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | -2 |
| QB | MIN | Christian Ponder | -2 |
| RB | NO | Darren Sproles | -2 |
| RB | CAR | DeAngelo Williams | -2 |
| RB | GB | Alex Green | -1 |
| WR | GB | Randall Cobb | -1 |
| RB | NE | Danny Woodhead | -1 |
| WR | GB | Jordy Nelson | -1 |
| WR | IND | T.Y. Hilton | -1 |
| WR | IND | Donnie Avery | -1 |
| WR | GB | Greg Jennings | -1 |
| WR | DET | Kris Durham | -1 |
| WR | NYG | Hakeem Nicks | -1 |
| TE | DET | Tony Scheffler | -1 |
| TE | IND | Dwayne Allen | -1 |
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Tampa Bay has a defense against which you shut down your running game in favor of throwing it every down. For New Orleans, that just means it can run its normal offense, which is great news for Colston owners. The Buccaneers rank 24th in pass defense DVOA, dead last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and this duo combined for 25.4 points against them in Week 7.
Denarius Moore (plus-1 point) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (plus-1 point)
Since scoring 16.0 points in Week 10, Moore has done a disappearing act, scoring 20.5 total points over his past four games. The good news for both Moore and Heyward-Bey is that, when these two teams played in Week 8, the duo combined for 26.5 points. Especially promising for Moore is that Kansas City ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA against No. 1 wideouts.
Randall Cobb (minus-1 point), Jordy Nelson (minus-1 point) and Greg Jennings (minus-1 point)
It seems like Green Bay wideouts show up every week in this piece, either having a great matchup (like last week) or a bad matchup (like this week). Despite their recent slump, Chicago remains the No. 1 pass defense in terms of DVOA, and the Bears are currently sixth in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Hakeem Nicks (minus-1 point)
Nicks has been picking up touchdowns here and there, but he really hasn't been himself since his Week 2 injury. Unfortunately, the Falcons' pass defense has given up only six touchdowns to wide receivers all season, which is the fewest in the league. In terms of DVOA, Atlanta's pass defense ranks 10th, seventh against No. 1 wideouts and third against No. 2 wideouts.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Brandon Myers (plus-1 point)
Kansas City's pass defense may be in the middle of the pack when it comes to fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but -- as I mentioned above -- they're 27th in pass defense DVOA. Just two weeks ago, Myers had 19.0 points against a Cleveland Browns pass defense that gives up the fourth fewest points to tight ends.
Tony Scheffler (minus-1 point)
In contrast, file this one under, "I don't trust our own numbers." As mentioned previously, Arizona has the second best pass defense according to DVOA, which should depress Stafford's output somewhat. However, since Titus Young's benching, Lions tight ends have averaged 15 targets per game, and, after Brandon Pettigrew's injury in the first quarter of last week's game against Green Bay, Scheffler got 10 targets, scoring 8.0 fantasy points.
[h=3]Elite players[/h]Finally, below is the list of the week's elite fantasy players I've left out of the tables, as well as their actual plus-minus scores. I recommend starting these players regardless of their matchups, but this information could come in handy if you're in a league with shallow rosters or are particularly flush with talent at a given position:
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 15 Projections For Elite Players[/h]
| Pos | Team | Player | Proj | Pos | Team | Player | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | NO | Drew Brees | +2 | WR | HOU | Andre Johnson | +2 |
| QB | ATL | Matt Ryan | 0 | WR | CIN | A.J. Green | +1 |
| QB | NE | Tom Brady | 0 | WR | TB | Vincent Jackson | +1 |
| QB | DEN | Peyton Manning | -1 | WR | SD | Danario Alexander | +1 |
| QB | CAR | Cam Newton | -1 | WR | CHI | Brandon Marshall | +1 |
| QB | GB | Aaron Rodgers | -6 | WR | ATL | Roddy White | 0 |
| RB | HOU | Arian Foster | +5 | WR | ATL | Julio Jones | 0 |
| RB | TB | Doug Martin | +3 | WR | NE | Wes Welker | 0 |
| RB | KC | Jamaal Charles | +2 | WR | DEN | Demaryius Thomas | -1 |
| RB | BUF | C.J. Spiller | 0 | WR | NYG | Victor Cruz | -1 |
| RB | CLE | Trent Richardson | 0 | WR | IND | Reggie Wayne | -1 |
| RB | SEA | Marshawn Lynch | 0 | WR | DET | Calvin Johnson | -1 |
| RB | WAS | Alfred Morris | 0 | TE | HOU | Owen Daniels | +1 |
| RB | DAL | DeMarco Murray | 0 | TE | NO | Jimmy Graham | +1 |
| RB | NE | Stevan Ridley | -2 | TE | NE | Aaron Hernandez | 0 |
| RB | SF | Frank Gore | -2 | TE | ATL | Tony Gonzalez | 0 |
| RB | BAL | Ray Rice | -2 | TE | PIT | Heath Miller | 0 |
| RB | MIN | Adrian Peterson | -3 | TE | CAR | Greg Olsen | 0 |
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