Week 14

[ofred]

Not much action this week until Friday. Bypassing the MAC games.

Last week
Large: 6-4
Small: 5-5

Cumulative
Large: 63-36
Small: 45-43

Small:
Tulane -13.5 (-115) I saw this spread and thought that the books are really fishing for Memphis money. Sort of like Indiana getting 13 last week, and like an idiot, I bought in. Other than the opening drive by Indiana, OSU was clearly the superior team. Tulane needs a convincing win here, and vs. Army next week, to have any chance at a CFP spot. Memphis is a pretty good team with only 2 losses, but oh what a creampuff schedule. Still, they do have an offense, and get turnovers on defense. The issue is that their defense can also get gouged badly vs. teams like Tulane. Tulane is at home and their D is even better at getting turnovers- 6 defensive TDs lead the nation. Another difference here is how much better Tulane is at pass defense. I expect Tulane's run game will wear down Memphis, and their QB will continue to be efficient in not making mistakes or turning it over. The Memphis offense will accumulate plenty of yards, but got a feeling they will settle for FGs, or not score at all. Still...lot of points, so keeping it small.

 

[indiana]

Fred........thank you for your early thought's buddy.......
BOL....on them with you......indy

 

[G-Man!]

Wonderful season Ofred.
BOL this week.

 

[jchooker]

Thx as always Fred... Always a good read ... Keep it up

 

[ofred]

Wonderful season Ofred.
BOL this week.

Thanks. Also, congrats to your profitable season. GL.

 

[ofred]

Small:

Ball State +15 Ohio has been on a nice run, but not sure they can win convincingly 5 weeks in a row. They are a fairly young team, and not sold on Parker Navraro as a consistent passer. Ball State has been pesky this season, and their offense has been surprisingly good- though also inconsistent. Weather should be cold and windy, but not too bad. Just think that teams like Ohio don't usually dominate week after week.

Minnesota +3 (-122) Wisconsin is so unlike their teams of the past, except for the mediocre QB part. The defense is average at best, although they have a few standout players. Nebraska carved them up pretty good, but a sleepwalking Oregon team didn't. I think Minnesota can find success passing the ball, and just as likely hold the Badgers passing game in check. Wisconsin also doesn't have the great OL or running game anymore, so defenses don't have to load the box with run defenders. Not sure who is calling the plays for UW since Longo was fired. Fickel said it is by committee.??

Oregon State +19 Jeanty went down with a bent leg injury in the 3rd quarter vs. Wyoming, but returned to play. You got to wonder if it was the adrenaline, and if he is completely healthy. Either way, he has taken a beating this season, running the ball 30 times a game. The Boise QB is okay, but has faltered in recent games. He's about 5'10" with his shoes on, and is asked to manage the game more than be an offensive standout. The line has dropped a bit, and also have to wonder if Jeanty has been seen limping or not attending practice. Now that the Beavers have a QB that can actually make their passing attack work, they have a balanced offense with a decent run game. Boise has really only won easily once in their last 5 games- vs. SD State. Odd staring time at 9:00 AM.

 

[ofred]

Large:

Texas State -1 Texas State has been really good when they are ON and then really bad when they lose- like last week's loss to Georgia State. Yet they often respond well to losses, and their offense can be really difficult to defend. Jordan McCloud has really grown as QB since his USF days. Puts up some ridiculous number while avoiding the turnovers and poor decisions. South Alabama is bowl eligible, but I just don't see where they shine in any one area. Other than their ULL win, nothing stands out as a signature win. Their young QB has done well, but their run game only looks good vs. weak teams. SA already has a starting CB declaring he will transfer, and is missing a key OL this week.

Utah St./ CSU- over 58 (-117) There is some analysis that CSU has become a good defensive team, but if you see their schedule, it has been vs. some really bad offenses. Utah State is different. They have two pretty dynamic QBs, a strong run game, and some playmakers with speed and shiftiness. But then Utah State plays defense like UNT, badly. I expect CSU's run game, which has been very good, to break off some monster runs Friday. They can run up scores without passing much. CSU's OL has been one of the best in the Mt. West.

Nebraska +5 Two good defenses, and both with run games that can eat up clock. Iowa going with Jackson Stratton, who passed little vs. Maryland last week. Probably due to weather, probably because Maryland couldn't stop the run. Their starter, McNamara, was truly awful so gotta question how Stratton didn't play before this. I think the Nebraska run defense is key here and can limit Kaleb Johnson. Going to be very cold and windy so the 5 points could be nice in a tight back and forth game.

Ole Miss +25 This has the feel of a massive blowout, thus the large spread. Ole Miss has a tiny chance of making the CFP, and that's why it's good they are playing Friday. Not much to say other than Ole Miss's defense will stuff the Bulldogs all day, and that will be key to points via turnovers and short fields. Ole Miss also responds well after a poor game. The way they beat Georgia, SC and Arkansas looks like a blueprint for this game.

 

[baseballdave]

Hey buddy !!

I follow your picks, especially the large ones and they are good !!

One thing, I think where you have Ole Miss, they are -25 not plus 25 !! LOL !!

Wish they were getting 25 against a bad Miss St team !!

Good luck and thanks for the plays !!

 

[ofred]

Hey buddy !!

I follow your picks, especially the large ones and they are good !!

One thing, I think where you have Ole Miss, they are -25 not plus 25 !! LOL !!

Wish they were getting 25 against a bad Miss St team !!

Good luck and thanks for the plays !!

Thanks Dave. That is of course is -25. Appreciate those of you who catch my mistakes.

 

[ofred]

Small:

Georgia Tech +19.5 Georgia will hope to stay healthy facing next week's SEC Championship game, and the CFP after that, but this rivalry is called Hate Week for a reason. Georgia will be as motivated as GT will be. However, this Georgia team has a number of injuries and the RB room is depleted. Beck also lost some great receiving options to the NFL. The defense is not one of their best compared to recent years- again, losing so much to the NFL draft. The GT defense is better this season, and they'll need to pressure Beck to hopefully cause him to turn it over, or hurry a pass. GT will again go with their 2 QB system, King running and Philo on obvious passing downs. I can foresee Georgia barely covering, and just as likely see GT making a game of it and staying close.

 

[mskorish]

Small:

Georgia Tech +19.5 Georgia will hope to stay healthy facing next week's SEC Championship game, and the CFP after that, but this rivalry is called Hate Week for a reason. Georgia will be as motivated as GT will be. However, this Georgia team has a number of injuries and the RB room is depleted. Beck also lost some great receiving options to the NFL. The defense is not one of their best compared to recent years- again, losing so much to the NFL draft. The GT defense is better this season, and they'll need to pressure Beck to hopefully cause him to turn it over, or hurry a pass. GT will again go with their 2 QB system, King running and Philo on obvious passing downs. I can foresee Georgia barely covering, and just as likely see GT making a game of it and staying close.

 

[mskorish]

Thoughts on sc v. Clem

 

[LexingtonGambler]

GL!!!!!!

 

[ofred]

Thoughts on sc v. Clem

Looking.

 

[ofred]

On to Saturday, large:

Vanderbilt +10.5 Tennessee really has played a light schedule for an SEC team. They usually have a decent yardage advantage in their victories, but they don't always covert this to TDs. Vanderbilt is off a 2 game losing streak, but they are what you'd call a live dog at home. The defense is not great, but they are better than expected, and well-coached. The Vols are not in the SEC Championship game, but do need a win here to guarantee a spot in the CFP. Feels like a tight game as Diego Pavia is a gamer.

Ohio State -19.5 Michigan has played better of late, beating the pants off of NW, and playing Indiana close. Yet this rivalry game is usually lopsided when one team is clearly better than the other. And Michigan is not only hated by the Buckeye fans, but also by its players. Ohio State very well could be the champ this season and I think in a rematch with Oregon, will win. Michigan's offense will be add to the OSU point totals when facing 3rd down passing plays and with 3 and outs/ short fields for the OSU offense.

UTSA +7 (-120) Army will struggle with this UTSA offense as UTSA's defense will struggle defending Army. UTSA should pass as often as possible, unlike what UNT tried to do. And UNT has a mess of a defense, with LBs that look like they are running in mud. UTSA could pull off the upset, but 7 is a nice bonus. Owen McCown has also become a serious running threat of late, which adds another option while scrambling to pass, and runs both planned and impromptu.

 

[ofred]

Small:

South Carolina +3 (-126) Thought about this as a larger play, but Clemson being at home is a big factor. On the medium side for me. Clemson's OL is either missing players or they are banged up. This might be a problem for their run game and pass blocking which has been pretty good this season. Clemson has beaten up on some ACC weaklings or semi-weaklings, while looking not so good vs. the better teams. South Carolina's defense has been really good 2nd half of the season, as has Sellers at QB.

Louisville -3 1H Kentucky playing their freshman QB in his first start, behind a pretty crappy pass-blocking OL. Gotta think UL puts the pressure on early and causes a few mistakes. The kid might settle down and play better as the game progresses, and KY's defense is pretty good. This is Kentucky's bowl game so treading carefully game-wise, but early on, I think UL gets off to a decent lead.

 

[ofred]

Large:

Air Force -4 (-115) Air Force is a team that has grown a lot as the season progressed. They still don't have much passing-wise(although they had 110 passing yards vs. OSU), but their run attack, and especially their defense, has improved as young players gained experience. Of the 3 academies, they often get the most athletic talent, and you can see that next season will be much better record-wise. SD State can't really expect to handle the AF run game, and the Aztec defense in general is as bad as any in the Mt. West- including UNM.

FIU -9 FIU is a better team than their record, and should have a couple more wins. They have played competitively with the top Conf. USA teams, their defense is much improved from 2023. QB Keyone Jenkins is a serious dual threat that FIU has to be hoping doesn't enter the transfer portal. I think a frustrated FIU team at home takes it out on a terrible opponent like MTSU. MTSU's passing numbers are inflated only because they are always far behind and have to pass almost every down to catch up. Garbage time passing yards. Also, MTSU has a dreadful run defense with LBS and safeties that can't tackle too well/ and are slow.

ODU -4 (-117) Going with ODU again this week. Like FIU, they play better on both sides of the ball than their record indicates. Really great run game and solid run defense. Arkansas State's offense will be one dimensional since they don't run well anyways. AS also has a dreadful defense. They beat South Alabama, and have a 7-4 record, but those kinds of things even out over a complete season, and one more game is left. This spread crossed the 3 and ballooned up to 4.5 for a reason. Statistically, the Red Wolves are down near the bottom with S. Miss. in their conference in a number of areas.

Notre Dame -7 (-122) USC has had a disappointing season, but they have an improved defense, and two QBs that are good at one thing but not the other. I just don't like them the week after playing their rival UCLA. I also don't like their OL trying to keep out the ND pass rush. ND will have to do more than unleash their very strong running attack. I think ND OC Mike Denbrock adjusts to playing a much different defense than what they have faced in recent weeks. ND fans also travel well, and this will feel almost like a neutral site.

 

[ofred]

Capping mistake on my part. Glad it was a small play. The books weren't fishing for Memphis money, they were counting on Joe Public overrating Tulane. Memphis also plays up or down to the competition...Lesson learned.

Last large plays:

Rice +6 It's hard to win on the road at the end of the season when you are already bowl eligible. USF has just pounded two teams that are really bad defensively. Rice will make their offense work a lot harder to score. Rice has a lot of seniors and upperclassmen, and will want to make this their final statement on their college careers. And it is their bowl game. Turnovers have killed them the past 2 weeks, so I'm guessing that is ahuge emphasis this week in practice. USF also has a long history of being undisciplined. The Rice offense, without the TOs, has a nice passing attack.

Texas A&M +5.5 I don't think Texas has beaten a ranked team, but not sure? A&M sure seemed to be in look ahead mode last week at Auburn...and Auburn looked really fired up. Marcel Reed will be a handful to contain and I think this week the Aggie defense will be fired up. Quinn Ewers is likely going to be leaving for the NFL (he's not ready, but has the physical attributes) or will transfer out since Manning is waiting in the wings. These two teams are not that far apart. A&M has been frustrated going back under Jimbo, and a win here will help them move on from some of that. Kyle Field will be rocking if the Aggies look good early.

 

[ofred]

Believe it or not, left a lot of small plays off the card...but these I like:

EMU +7 EMU, under Chris Creighton, has been a surprising underdog over many years. They seem to play beyond their talent. Besides, going to be cold, maybe snowing, windy in Kalamazoo- which should limit the WMU offense a bit, which has already faltered in recent games.

Oklahoma +5.5 LSU was able to get by Vandy last week (by 7), but did outplay them by more. OKlahoma off their incredible upset of Bama. But what I noticed about the Sooners is just how good their D is, and how well they can run the ball. Good ingredients for bowl games and upsets. LSU going to a so-so bowl game, players might be considering the portal, and Kelly has lost some of the team perhaps. Nussmeier was a strength of this team earlier in the season, now seen as playing poorly in bigger games or vs. better Ds.

CMU +11.5 NIU has a pretty good D and can run the ball, but they might have the worst QBs in the MAC except for Kent St. Though CMU also has that issue, their defense is respectable. CMU runs the ball okay and keeps it close on a brutally cold day. Too many points for NIU to cover when they can't pass on 3rd down, and have to deal with the weather. Small crowd expected.

Washington +18 Had to take this one. Such high interest on this here in the Pacific Northwest. Washington will likely play their speedy, elusive young QB quite a bit here. Demond Willams also a decent passer. The Ducks played their best game vs. Ohio State, but otherwise haven't wowed us. Most seasons, we see 2-3 dominant teams. This year, I'm not sure anyone is like Michigan last year, or Georgia the year before. Oregon could lose the Big 10 Championship game, and a playoff game. WR Tez Johnson back, but you know how shoulder injuries often take longer to fully heal. Other injuries also plague Oregon. And Jonah Coleman returning to UW for 2025. Encouraging.

Nevada +17.5 This Nevada team is so lucky to have QB Brendan Lewis. Without him, they'd be a one win team and getting smeared a lot. But actually the defense has played better than expected. UNLV has really shined after their staring QB left in September. They are only average defensively, and their QB while being a very good runner, is not that accurate passing. Rivalry game, +17.5, on it. I think UNLV is favored by so much because they need a win to make the Mt. West Championship game. Nevada just needs to cover.

 

[ofred]

Big shout out to Haynes King. What a gamer. Wish I had played the GT game large instead of small.