Week 14 NFL 12/12-12/13

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Go Pittsburgh!
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
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Preseason Straight Plays: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season Straight Plays: 47-44 51.65% +0.06U
Total Straight Plays: 63-53 54.31% +6.53U

Half-time Plays: 1-4 20.00% -3.14U
Money Line Underdogs: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U

Teasers: 7-6 53.85% +0.30U
Parlays: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U

All Plays One Unit
YTD Total: +1.69U



Seattle +7 -107
Atlanta -7.5 -101
New Orleans/Dallas OVER 48 -110

7 Point TEASE Atlanta -.5 & SF/Arizona UNDER 44 -120
6 Point TEASE Dallas -1 & Seattle.Minnesota OVER 46 +100


Leans to Tampa Bay, Washington, & Wash UNDER but no play yet.

 

Chomping at the bits
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
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Howdy, B&G. There you go teasing those totals again, lol. I saw you hit one last week, though, so good on ya'. I really don't see any value in the Seattle and Atlanta games, personally. I don't think Seattle has any receivers 100% healthy and can't imagine their morale is very high right now. Minny is fighting for playoff position and should show a little more spunk than Seattle. Atlanta has been anything but consistent versus the point spread, but Oakland has lost Curry at WR, in addition to their lack of good healthy rb's right now, so you've got that working for you.

Here are some of my thoughts on teasing totals. The lower the original total, the more value you get by teasing it. This is an obvious point, but I'm not sure how many people think of it. If a total is 36 points and you are playing a 6 point teaser, you are moving the line 1/6th of it's total. If a line is 48 points, the same 6 point tease is moving the line 1/8th of it's total. As you can see, you get more total value from teasing lower totals. That's why about the only teases on totals I like to do are teasing numbers from 30-35 down to Over 24-29. By this logic, you are getting more value from your SF/AZ tease, and less from your Minny/Seattle Over. Just something for people to think about.

GL this week!
 

Go Pittsburgh!
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
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Crunch -

Thanks for the input. I agree with your thoughts on value with teasing totals. I cap what I feel to be minimum and maximum scoring outputs for teams in a game and factor in defensive/special teams scores, etc. If teasing the total will get me to the number I feel is safe, I do it. Good luck today.


Last 2 plays -


Cleveland/Buffalo UNDER 37.5 -104

10-point TEASE Buffalo -1.5, Baltimore PK, TB +14.5 -120




GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!!
 

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