Week 14 early plays with WA lines!

[thecruncher]

Hi all. As promised, here are the top plays for week 14 with widely available lines (though they're moving fast).

3 Team 10 point Teaser
Pats-1/Den-1/Jets+15.5 3 Units

2 Team 7 point Teaser
Balt-2.5/Colts-3 2 Units

Balt/NYG Over 32.5 1.5 Units
You saw the 'Skins put up 31 on the NYG crippled D. last week. If the Gints can scrape up 10 points, this one's going over -- or the Ravens might do it alone.

Jaguars -7 1 Unit

BOL!

 

[ElIguana]

Ravens' UNDER play used to be a goldmine.....but they have very quietly gone over the point total in their last several games. I agree with you--if Manning, Barber & Company can help out at all, this will go over. GL

 

[thecruncher]

Adding Pittsburgh/Jets Over 35.5 1 Unit
Both teams can do it on the ground and in the air. Both teams do have good defenses, it's true, but it's worth taking a shot at this low number. Could be a classic 17-17 tie that guarantees the Over in OT! lol.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding San Diego -5 1.5 Units

 

[thecruncher]

Adding New Orleans +7 1 Unit
Adding New Orleans/Dallas Over 46.5 1 Unit

 

[thecruncher]

Adding NE/Cincy Over 44 - 1 Unit
Waited a little too long to pull the trigger on this one, as it initially dropped down to 43.5, but has rebounded up to 44. Dillon should run roughshod over the Cincy run D., which will open up some big passing plays for Brady. Cincy's offense has certainly had some momentum with C. Palmer proving he can throw the ball with success against a good Baltimore D.

 

[wahook]

Hi all. As promised, here are the top plays for week 14 with widely available lines (though they're moving fast).

3 Team 10 point Teaser
Pats-1/Den-1/Jets+15.5 3 Units

2 Team 7 point Teaser
Balt-2.5/Colts-3 2 Units

Balt/NYG Over 32.5 1.5 Units
You saw the 'Skins put up 31 on the NYG crippled D. last week. If the Gints can scrape up 10 points, this one's going over -- or the Ravens might do it alone.

Jaguars -7 1 Unit

BOL!

I like the ten point teaser, but why don't you put the Colts in there instead of the Jets. In your 2 game teaser you have the Colts at -3. Just a suggestion. I learned the hard way to not make teasers just to have more to watch on TV, our goal is to win money. Basically, put more money on your 3 game teaser and none or less on the 2 game teaser. Maybe I am misreading your thought process, but it sounds like mine a year ago. GL and win big!!!!!

wahook:drink:

 

[thecruncher]

I like the ten point teaser, but why don't you put the Colts in there instead of the Jets. In your 2 game teaser you have the Colts at -3. Just a suggestion. I learned the hard way to not make teasers just to have more to watch on TV, our goal is to win money. Basically, put more money on your 3 game teaser and none or less on the 2 game teaser. Maybe I am misreading your thought process, but it sounds like mine a year ago. GL and win big!!!!!

wahook:drink:

Well, in a game that figures to be low-scoring (Pitt/NYJ, even though I like it go over 35.5), it's asking a lot of a team to beat the other team by 14+ points when they are only a 5 point favorite. The line is basically telling us that this game should be close, and indeed I think it will be close, as I think Pitt is about a 4 point favorite. The moral of the story = the lower the total AND point spread, the less likely it is for one team to spank the other by a large margin. That's why I liked teasing Jax up to 10 last week, it's the same kind of scenario this week. Now, if the total were 52 or something, anything can happen because a lot of points are figured to be scored. This is the case in the Indy/Houston game, where the total is 56. With such a high-scoring game likely, taking the Colts as a pick or -3 doesn't make that much of a difference, because the higher total number of points scored in the game, the less likely the final number is going to fall within a specified 3 point range, so I'm willing to give up the possibility of pushing the bet with the Colts winning by exactly 3, because it's less likely to end up there then in a low-scoring game. Plus, I thought the Jets had a little more value as a pick than the Colts vs. the line, so to me the way I played the teasers makes sense. So there's my answer, and thanks for the advice, Wahook! Keep up the good work.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding KC +2 for 1.5 Units. Over KC/Ten for 1 Unit.

I have this line at KC -4 (before updating injuries), so it's one of the highest values vs. the spread that I've got this week. This game figures to be high-scoring, with Volek proving he can sling it like a seasoned vet, so I'm going to make a 1 Unit play on the Over as well. Weak defenses and both teams being able to play catch-up through the air will help. Weather should be clear after some rain Friday/Saturday, but winds are forecasted at 10-20 mph, so I'd keep an eye on that.

 

[ElIguana]

I like KC/Tenn to go over too, Cruncher, but I wouldn't put a DIME on KC +2. (And I'm not talking about $1000, I'm talking about 10 cents!)

Chiefs have found new ways each week to lose games they should win easily. This is exactly the type of game that KC should win by 10, but they will fumble or throw an INT w/ 2:00 left in the 4th and their sorry defense will let Titans drive the length of the field and score. Tennessee will win a shoutout at home. GL

 

[thecruncher]

Hola, El Iguana! The Titans are so banged-up on defense right now that the Chiefs should score at will, even without Priest Holmes. The Chiefs O-Line is a little dinged up, so that concerns me just a tad. If you want to talk about teams losing games, look no further than the Titans, who've played a grand total of 1 good game all year, vs. the Packers. So, right now, the Chiefs have the better offense, and considering the Titans injuries, a near equal defense. Even giving the Chiefs -.75 points for being on the road a 2nd week in a row, I still have them winning the game by 4. The Chiefs do have the worst pass defense in the league, and have lost a couple of safeties within the last month, so maybe the Titans still have a slight edge on D., in spite of having (according to my personal analysis) the 3rd worst rush defense. The Chiefs have hung with good teams and beaten average teams, and the Titans have been below average, so I look for a Chiefs upset in this one. Time will tell!

 

[thecruncher]

Oh, and how do you expect the game to go Over 52 with the Titans pitching a shutout? lol. I'll lay you 50 to 1 the Chiefs manage at least a safety in this one!

 

[ElIguana]

OOPS! That was supposed to be "shootout," not shutout. Your entire analysis is right on, Cruncher, Chiefs could very well win this one outright. But I am only willing to put $$ on the over. The Cheifs have underachieved and :hump: me EVERY time I took them this year except vs. Baltimore. I trust them to put up a lot of points but not to win the game. GL if you take them.....I am a Chiefs fan and can't decide if I would rather see them win this game or lose for a better draft pick at this point. :banger:

 

[thecruncher]

Adding Carolina -6.5 for 1 Unit

Rams are suddenly hurting on Offense, and their defense is not going to win many games for them. Panthers have turned a corner and are playing solid ball now. Could get ugly in Carolina this weekend.

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

You put a lot of work in your writeups Crunch. I commend you on a nice job. I'm considering KC on AP's this week.

 

[johnskelington]

Good Luck Today Cruncher!