Week 14 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:
UTSA at No. 25 Army (-7; 55)
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ETArmy fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week in a 49-14 loss to Notre Dame. However, it will not affect the Black Knights’ pursuit of an AAC Championship, as they are in next week’s title game vs. Tulane. Then, the annual Army-Navy showdown looms the following week.
First, they have to deal with an all-of-a-sudden hot UTSA team that has won four of its last five and should have won all five had the Roadrunners not blown a 35-7 lead at Tulsa. This is the proverbial sandwich spot for Army.
Furthermore, Army is likely beat up, having just faced Notre Dame last week. In fact, every team that has faced Notre Dame has had some hangover effects the following week.
This nugget courtesy of VSiN’s own Tim Murray:
Tim Murray on X: “The following week after playing Notre Dame… Teams are now 0-8 ATS (0-9-1 ATS if you include NIU & FSU) Army -7 vs UTSA on Saturday
UTSA also matches up relatively well against the nation’s No. 1 rushing attack, as the Roadrunners rank Top 10 nationally against the run.
As the world’s most famous roadrunner would say, “Meep Meep”.
Week 14 College Football Best Bet: UTSA +7
No. 8 Tennessee (-11; 48.5) at Vanderbilt
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ETTennessee rose three spots on Tuesday to No. 8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings and are likely in a “win and in” situation this Saturday at Vanderbilt.
However, this number is a fairly hefty tax against their in-state rival, Vanderbilt, who is already going bowling for the first time in six seasons.
It is also a hefty tax to give giant-killer Vandy QB Diego Pavia, considering he has covered as a double-digit underdog seven times over the last two seasons, including five times this season (Vanderbilt is 7-1 ATS as an underdog in 2024), which include three outright victories over Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia Tech.
All of the pressure is on Tennessee here and Vanderbilt will play loose and free.
Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Vanderbilt +11
No. 5 Notre Dame (-7.5; 52.5) at USC
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETNotre Dame is likely in the College Football Playoff even with a loss as a 30-point favorite to Northern Illinois. Since that shocking defeat, the Irish have gone 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. Now, they close out the regular season against a rival.
This is not the easiest scheduling spot for Notre Dame, considering they were in the Bronx last weekend, came home, and now go across the country to Los Angeles. This week also marks Notre Dame’s first true road game since September 14th at Purdue.
While 6-5 is certainly a disappointing season for USC, they have played a bit better of late since the switch to Jayden Maiava at QB, as he is the better runner and more of a fit for Lincoln Riley’s offense than Miller Moss.
Surprisingly enough, USC is one of six teams in the country to hold a fourth-quarter lead in every game this season. The other five are Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, Boise State, and UNLV, all with the likelihood or potential to reach the College Football Playoff.
Keep in mind, USC was getting +3.5 at home to Penn State, who is rated just one spot ahead of Notre Dame in the CFP. This is a slightly inflated number.
Week 14 College Football Best Bet: USC +7.5
No. 3 Texas (-5.5) at No. 20 Texas A&M
Saturday, 7:30 p.m ETTexas and Texas A&M had met 118 times (Texas leads 76-37-5) until their last meeting in 2011, when A&M left for the SEC. The Longhorns have now joined the Aggies in the SEC, and now the rivalry resumes after a 13-year hiatus.
The rivalry also resumes with high stakes as the winner will face Georgia next week in the SEC Championship Game.
Texas has been rated near the top of the College Football Playoff Rankings all season despite its schedule. Five of the Longhorns’ six conference wins are against conference foes with losing records in conference play. In their one showcase against an elite team, Texas was handled easily at home by Georgia.
Now they get an opportunity to clinch its CFP spot against Texas A&M. The Aggies were hanging on the periphery of the CFP until losing in 4 OT at Auburn last weekend.
Texas has not impressed against upper-level defenses, and now QB Quinn Ewers is battling an ankle injury. Meanwhile, A&M put up 41 points and 464 yards on a highly-ranked Auburn defense. This week, the Aggies step up in class, facing Texas’s No. 2 defense. However, Texas has faced several weak offenses in the SEC, such as Kentucky, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. The Aggies offense is also a step up in class for the Longhorns.
Gig’ Em.
Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Texas A&M +5.5
BEST OF THE REST
Northwestern +7.5 vs. Illinois
Eastern Michigan +7 -120 at Western Michigan
Arizona +9 vs. Arizona State
Western Kentucky -116 ML vs. Jacksonville State
New Mexico -3 at Hawaii
