2* Penn State -11 Going against a public dog here, although that doesn't really matter. I just think MSU shot their wad last week vs. OSU. You can see other games where MSU looks played out and incompetent on offense- such as their losses to Illinois and Maryland. Penn State will have a lot to play for here IF Ohio State wins. But, I think they play well nevertheless. This is a team that has crawled out of the mess of the sex abuse scandals, loss of recruits and losing football. I think we'll see an energized team that is improving in all aspects of their game. HC Franklin has done a remarkable job getting his players to buy in, and their win vs. OSU was a turning point. MSU has a multitude of injuries on both sides of the ball, and I think D'Antonio plays some of his younger players here to get a look at what they can do. Many have already been playing. I also do not like the pass blocking of the Spartans- it always seems like their QBs are throwing in a hurry. Run blocking has been much better. Penn State has a dynamic offense that put up 35-45 here in their final home game.
2* Michigan +6 Where did that 6.5 go? I still like Michigan here. Ohio State has struggled all season vs. even marginally good defenses and this is the best one by far. Ohio State has some OL injuries/ depth issues and this could make JT Barrett less effective. A key to this game is that Michigan QB O'Korn is allowed to pass beyond 5-10 yards. He is definitely capable of it, but Harbaugh will not have much of a chance unless they open up the passing some. I know the general thinking is that Ohio State has the offensive edge, and Michigan has struggled to score- which is true. But in these types of games, you often see players step up and that is what I'm hoping to see from the Michigan running game and passing game. There's a good chance both teams will have a difficult time running and passing the ball. Barrett has been off target often in long and medium passes. I'll take the points in a game Michigan can pull the upset. Their D is 2nd to Alabama's in their ability to cause disruption in the front 7.
2* Michigan +6 Where did that 6.5 go? I still like Michigan here. Ohio State has struggled all season vs. even marginally good defenses and this is the best one by far. Ohio State has some OL injuries/ depth issues and this could make JT Barrett less effective. A key to this game is that Michigan QB O'Korn is allowed to pass beyond 5-10 yards. He is definitely capable of it, but Harbaugh will not have much of a chance unless they open up the passing some. I know the general thinking is that Ohio State has the offensive edge, and Michigan has struggled to score- which is true. But in these types of games, you often see players step up and that is what I'm hoping to see from the Michigan running game and passing game. There's a good chance both teams will have a difficult time running and passing the ball. Barrett has been off target often in long and medium passes. I'll take the points in a game Michigan can pull the upset. Their D is 2nd to Alabama's in their ability to cause disruption in the front 7.
Boise letdown. Scored 20 points vs. AF pass D?
4* USF -10(-120) What makes this game so attractive is that even though UCF could cover this spread, with their offense, they have almost no chance of winning. 10 isn't too rich in a game that I think USF will treat something like a bowl game. In many bowl games, explosive offenses tend to play at an even higher level than usual. This is USF's final home game, maybe their final game with Coach Willie Taggart. UCF coach, Scott Frost, has also done an amazing job with a team that won zero games last year. And even though his defense is fairly stout, no one has been able to stop Quinton Flowers and crew. Last week was a good example- UCF in their final home game just couldn't keep up with Tulsa, losing by 15. The UCF QB is a 5'11" freshman QB who is still fairly raw in the decision making dept. UCF also has a fairly weak run game, lacking an explosive runner.
USF's Flowers is not the highlight film that Lamar Jackson is, but he might be more efficient and consistent. Flowers is known for his incredible running abilities, but he has also become an adept passer at 61%, with 22 TDs, only 6 interceptions, and is very difficult to sack. USF is also loaded with other playmakers that make them nearly impossible to defend. USF will definitely be "on" this game since they play earlier in the day than Temple, whom they need to beat out for their AAC East Division title. Willie Taggart is also a great motivator, and he'll have no problem motivating his team here.
4* USF -10(-120) What makes this game so attractive is that even though UCF could cover this spread, with their offense, they have almost no chance of winning. 10 isn't too rich in a game that I think USF will treat something like a bowl game. In many bowl games, explosive offenses tend to play at an even higher level than usual. This is USF's final home game, maybe their final game with Coach Willie Taggart. UCF coach, Scott Frost, has also done an amazing job with a team that won zero games last year. And even though his defense is fairly stout, no one has been able to stop Quinton Flowers and crew. Last week was a good example- UCF in their final home game just couldn't keep up with Tulsa, losing by 15. The UCF QB is a 5'11" freshman QB who is still fairly raw in the decision making dept. UCF also has a fairly weak run game, lacking an explosive runner.
USF's Flowers is not the highlight film that Lamar Jackson is, but he might be more efficient and consistent. Flowers is known for his incredible running abilities, but he has also become an adept passer at 61%, with 22 TDs, only 6 interceptions, and is very difficult to sack. USF is also loaded with other playmakers that make them nearly impossible to defend. USF will definitely be "on" this game since they play earlier in the day than Temple, whom they need to beat out for their AAC East Division title. Willie Taggart is also a great motivator, and he'll have no problem motivating his team here.
Rough day for my plays. Got a few smalls for Saturday:
1* Iowa State +7 Iowa State has this for their final game/ bowl game, and has found their offense in recent weeks. No reason they can't pull the upset here. WVU's Skylar Howard is back to turning the ball over like last season.
1* Florida +7.5 Beat LSU, Georgia, slaughtered Ky and Missouri. Only the Arky game was a really bad performance. They can hang in there here. Probably the best D FSU has faced this year.
1* Charlotte/ UTSA- over 54.5 These two teams both have offenses that can score when facing defenses like they'll see Saturday. UTSA has a nice running game, and Sr. QB Jared Johnson can pass better than the guy they benched. Charlotte also has nice running game, and has been competitive in the 2nd half of the season.
1* Utah State +18 BYU playing in-state rival, USU. BYU has defensive issues, and should struggle with USU QB Kent Myers enough to keep this game close.
1* Iowa State +7 Iowa State has this for their final game/ bowl game, and has found their offense in recent weeks. No reason they can't pull the upset here. WVU's Skylar Howard is back to turning the ball over like last season.
1* Florida +7.5 Beat LSU, Georgia, slaughtered Ky and Missouri. Only the Arky game was a really bad performance. They can hang in there here. Probably the best D FSU has faced this year.
1* Charlotte/ UTSA- over 54.5 These two teams both have offenses that can score when facing defenses like they'll see Saturday. UTSA has a nice running game, and Sr. QB Jared Johnson can pass better than the guy they benched. Charlotte also has nice running game, and has been competitive in the 2nd half of the season.
1* Utah State +18 BYU playing in-state rival, USU. BYU has defensive issues, and should struggle with USU QB Kent Myers enough to keep this game close.
1* Stanford -20.5 1H Rice is the perfect soft defense for this Stanford running game. But I think Shaw will also work in the passing game since it needs work. Rice has won its last 2 games, but UTEP and Charlotte are almost as bad as they are. Stanford DL eats up the Rice OL and makes running impossible. Rice has one chance- through the air.
Finally crossed the 50 unit mark. Got hammered in the 1*s, and regret a couple of those, but don't regret the ASU play. Todd Graham's players must of laid down to get rid of that miserable SOB for Arizona to blow them out. Considering the opponent, by far ASU's worst defensive performance. Will update in Week 14 thread.
