Week 13 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 13 college football best bets:No. 13 SMU (-10; 57.5) at Virginia
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ETSMU remains the lone undefeated team in ACC play. They are just outside the Top 12 for the College Football Playoff. The Mustangs have won seven games in a row and are only one of three teams that can make the ACC Championship Game (Miami (FL), Clemson). They have caught a break in their first year in the ACC not having to face either Miami (FL) or Clemson. It is all set up for SMU, with only Virginia and Cal remaining. However, it might not be all that easy. Virginia is playing for bowl eligibility here before the Commonwealth Cup showdown with rival Virginia Tech.
Virginia could play two QBs here, as Anthony Colandrea, who was benched last week, is more of the big play signal caller, while Tony Muskett is the veteran who did get UVA in the backdoor late last week at Notre Dame.
The pressure may be starting to get to some of these teams late in the CFP process, and SMU is no exception.
Three of SMU’s four road victories this year are by 7 or less, and UVA head coach Tony Elliott is 13-3 ATS as an underdog in ACC play, including a 3-1 mark this season.
Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Virginia +10
North Carolina (-3; 55) at Boston College
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ETAfter a 3-0 start, the Tar Heels gave up 70 in a loss to James Madison. That started a four-game losing streak. Post-bye week, North Carolina has won three games in a row and just got bowl-eligible with a 31-24 victory over Wake Forest last week.
Often, when a team gets bowl-eligible the week prior, there is a sense of accomplishment that can cause a letdown the next time out. That could ring especially true this week with a trip to 5-5 Boston College, who is also striving for bowl eligibility.
Boston College started 2024 with a 4-1 record but has lost four of its last five games. However, a change at QB may have started to right the ship. Thomas Castellanos was benched two weeks ago vs. Syracuse and backup Grayson James, along with the one-two punch of Kye Robichaux and Jordan McDonald in the backfield (331 yards, 3 TDs combined), beat the Orange. Castellanos went in the portal and James, the better passer, assumed the role of starter for BC, who made a good showing last week as just under three TD underdogs at SMU as it was a three-point game until the final minute.
The Tar Heels have a potent rushing attack of their own with Omarion Hampton (1422 yards, 14 TD), who only ranks behind Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty in rushing yards per game.
While North Carolina’s defense has certainly improved from last year’s horror show, they still rank in the high 70s for both yards and points per game allowed.
BC has the higher sense of urgency here.
Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Boston College +3
No. 4 Penn State (-11.5; 45) at Minnesota
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETBarring a major slip-up either here at Minnesota or next week vs. Maryland, Penn State is heading to the College Football Playoff. However, this is a bit of a tricky spot for the Nittany Lions at Minnesota, who has a Top 20 defense in points per game, yards per game, points per play, and fourth down conversion percentage.
On offense, Minnesota has been more successful throwing the ball recently with Max Brosmer. The Gophers had been run-heavy in recent years but have struggled to run the ball, which may not matter much here as Penn State ranks fifth in the country for rushing yards per game allowed (98.6).
While Indiana has gotten much of the national ire from some of the college football chattering class (particularly those in the South), Penn State has caught a bit of a pass for only one victory of reasonable note (Illinois).
The Nittany Lions offense ranks 103rd in pass attempts per game (26.7) because they are a Top 25 rushing offense but also because they lack explosive playmakers at the receiver position.
Minnesota should be able to slow the game down and not allow Penn State to get much of margin.
Row the Boat!
Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Minnesota +11.5
No. 16 Colorado (-3; 59.5) at Kansas
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETColorado, along with Arizona State, controls its destiny to reach the Big XII Championship Game.
Two-way player Travis Hunter is the Heisman frontrunner and QB Shedeur Sanders has had a big-time season. The defense has also improved from last season. In fact, Colorado has improved about everywhere except running the football, where they rank near or at the bottom in every rushing category.
However, the Buffs have played a relatively easy conference schedule as its opponents’ combined record is just 20-29. They have victories over three of the four worst teams in the conference (UCF, Arizona, and last week vs. Utah).
Meanwhile, an unlucky (1-5 in one-score games) Kansas bunch has defeated Iowa State and BYU in the last two weeks and lost at Arizona State by four with :20 to play and by two at Kansas State.
The Jayhawks have been more battle-tested and have to win out in order to get bowl-eligible after a 1-5 start.
Dating back to his tenure at Buffalo, Lance Leipold is one of the best underdog coaches in the country, especially at home (technically neutral this week in Kansas City), where he is 17-7-1 ATS.
Seemingly, the whole world is going to want to bet Coach Prime and Colorado here, but be careful because this number is that low on the Jayhawks for a reason, just like it was at BYU last week.
Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Kansas +3
Baylor (-8; 50.5) at Houston
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ETAfter a tough 2-4 start, Baylor won four games in a row and got bowl-eligible with a victory at West Virginia last week. On the other side, Houston had its moments in an overall tough campaign in Willie Fritz’s first year. The Cougars have pulled upsets at TCU, vs. Utah, and vs. Kansas State.
Houston’s offense has been anemic, to put it mildly, averaging just 14 points per game (131st) and 296.1 yards (125th). It has improved a bit since Zeon Chriss has taken over at QB for Donovan Smith as Chriss is the better runner.
The Cougars offense may actually have a shot to move the ball on a Baylor defense that has given up an average of 36 points per game over its last seven games.
Baylor is off three payback wins over Texas Tech, TCU, and West Virginia, and it just got bowl-eligible. This could be the letdown.
Week 13 College Football Best Bet: Houston +8
BEST OF THE REST
Maryland +6 vs. Iowa
Northwestern +11 at Michigan
Oklahoma State +4.5 vs. Texas Tech
Fresno State -3 vs. Colorado State
UL Monroe/Arkansas State UNDER 52.5
