Week 12

[ofred]

Last Week:

Large 6-4
Small 2-6, included in that 0-3 on weekday plays. But here we go:

Buffalo -3 (-127) These two teams are considered the mid-level MAC teams, which means they are pretty awful. UB has played much better at home than on the road. Their QB has become a better dual threat in recent games, passing with better accuracy. They also have nice run game, and multiple options at receiver. Ball State has surprised us. They were supposed to be down at the bottom of the MAC with Kent State. Yet they are playing teams close, winning a few. They are a really young team that has a great TE, but not much else. Got a feeling Ball State is overdue for a poor outing on the road.

Akron +15 NIU is an enigma kind of. They really have very little in the way of a passing attack. Their QB has some of the worst passing numbers in the MAC. Good running game though, and a strong DL. They really dink and dunk their way down the field to supplement their run game, but use a lot of time. Even though their DL is one of the best in the mAC, the defense is vulnerable at times to a decent passing attack. Akron is not at their level, but they are a really high effort team. They lost to Rutgers, Ohio State and South Carolina, but otherwise can compete with MAC opponents. A decnet offense with some balance of running and passing. QB Ben Finley, formerly of NC State, gives Akron their first legit QB in many years. I think NIU will burn a lot of clock, and settle for a FG or two, giving Akron a chance to cover the 15.

 

[Aristo]

Sorry Fred, these plays are small or large? Keep up the great work! Year in and year out, you are consistently great!

 

[JBS39]

GL Fred

 

[ofred]

Small.

 

[ofred]

Who would've thought Buffalo would score 45 in regulation and be lucky to get a push? OVER was the right play.

Large:

Houston +1.5 Arizona is off a bye, but I'm wagering they won't be able to fix their broken offense. They have 2 number one draft choices on the offense, but can't do anything with the talent they have. A lot of blame rests with Brennan and his coaching staff. They do have some injuries, and the run game has stalled. The defense has steadily regressed. Their earlier upset of Utah doesn't look so good anymore. And their loss to an injury riddled WVU team was embarrassing. If you look at offensive team stats for the Big 12, Arizona is right down at the bottom with Houston...although Houston's stats are modified somewhat with their two shutout losses earlier. Houston's offense was mired with a glut of penalties, and poor decisions by then QB Donovan Smith. Now they have cleaned up their game, have discovered some very good young RBs, and a dual threat QB In Zeon Chriss- a QB that who won't wow you with passing stats, but has decent touch. And their defense has been their calling card. Very good tacklers, keep to their assignments, etc.

Washington -3 (-127) Washington coming off a beatdown at PSU. Penn State was due for that kind of game after their loss to OSU. UW is a better team at home, beating Michigan and USC there, and it should be a cool and damp Friday night. Good football weather vs. a SoCal team. Both UW and UCLA have issues with their OLs. UW has an outstanding RB in Coleman, UCLA has Garbers making plays while running for his life. UW will start Will Rogers at QB, who has played pretty well at home(71% completion rate), with their backup QB also playing to give them a running option. UCLA off of 3 straight upset victories over Iowa, Rutgers and Nebraska. I don't think they have another upset in them. In their 5 losses, they only averaged 14 points per game.... and do turn it over quite a bit.

 

[ofred]

Early Saturday Large:

Northwestern +29.5 The venue of Wrigley Field just makes me think this game gets a little wonky. Grass, divots, weird layout of the field. Northwestern will need their QB to play as he has a for a few games this season, and not like the crappy others. In other words, at least a game manager with some RPO and scrambling to pass. Ohio State has Indiana on tap next week, and I doubt they'll need to run up the score and risk injury in the 2H. I'm not sure, but I think the Wrigley greass is pretty thick, and this could slow down the OSU receivers a bit. OSU looks like the number 2 team in the country, but not as good as previous OSU teams.

Arkansas +13.5 The feeling here is that Texas is a bit overrated and hasn't faced many good QBs or offenses this season. Arkansas has their star RB back, and Taylen Green can make things interesting with his mobility. Arkansas off a bye, Texas off a beatdown of Florida playing with a QB that has no business playing FBS football. Pittman's teams have had some upsets and close losses over the past few years, and this could be another.

Louisiana Tech +14 (-115) After I trashed LT last week in my Jacksonville St. bet, I've reconsidered. WKU has played garbage most of the season and gave up over 300 yards rushing to NMSU recently. LT QB Evan Bullock is showing growth and the ability to drive his team down the field. They should have beaten JS last week. WKU has a habit of not being able to put teams away, and LT's defense is respectable enough to make that true again.

Tulane -7 If you've seen Tulane play, you know how good they are on both sides of the ball. If they can properly keep their defensive assignments vs. this Navy team, they can absolutely beat them convincingly. Tulane has such a dynamic offense, and I just can't see the Navy defense able to physically match stop them. Tulane will probably be left out of the playoff seeding, and that early K. State loss will be one of the reasons. They matched up easily with them, but blew it late.

 

[indiana]

Fred.....thank you for your early thought's my friend.....
BOL with all your action this weekend.......indy

 

[ofred]

Small:

Utah +7 1H (-120) A 10 AM start time. In Boulder, it'll barely be above freezing at that time of day. Who schedules this ridiculous time? They can't play at noon? Will the college kids even be recovered from their Friday night hangovers? Might be a sparse crowd until halftime. Anyways, Utah is down to their last QB, except for the backup walk-on. Utah's best quality might be their pass defense, and that might slow down the Sanders attack a bit...at least early. Seems like there is more talk about Sanders in the NFL draft than on the Buffs game this week. A bet against the hype.

 

[sidthekid]

Small:

Utah +7 1H (-120) A 10 AM start time. In Boulder, it'll barely be above freezing at that time of day. Who schedules this ridiculous time? They can't play at noon? Will the college kids even be recovered from their Friday night hangovers? Might be a sparse crowd until halftime. Anyways, Utah is down to their last QB, except for the backup walk-on. Utah's best quality might be their pass defense, and that might slow down the Sanders attack a bit...at least early. Seems like there is more talk about Sanders in the NFL draft than on the Buffs game this week. A bet against the hype.

Na not sure if I wanna back Issac Wilsonor Rose

 

[ofred]

Rose out for the year. It's Wilson and Bottari. Bottari actually played vs. Colorado last season in a game Utah won.

 

[ofred]

Large:

ODU +3 (-126) ODU has been a thorn in the side for teams with better records and more publicity. But this ODU team actually has a decent QB, unlike earlier versions of the team. They can run the ball, the defense is just okay, but play with high effort. They are at home, coming off a bye, and have a solid coaching staff.Part of the play is that JMU is a tad overrated and has made mush of the worst of FBS teams. A little on the ML.

ULL -7 (-120) ULL plays smart, and they will take what defenses allow them. Senior Ben Woolbridge has really played well at QB, making good reads, not turning the ball over and avoiding sacks. Not really a runner, but has mobility. In watching S. Alabama, they seem a bit slow on defense, and the OL allows lots of pressure. They have won 4 games, and other than their road win vs. a defense-less App. State team, none were impressive.

Georgia -9 (-112) Tennessee QB under concussion protocol and might not play. In fact, the Vols can lose this game, and should still easily win their last 2 to go to the playoffs. Not that they will play any worse, but that kind of thing can permeate the mind of a player or coach when facing an angry team like Georgia on the road. Georgia is short on RBs, but I think they'll adjust and find ways to both run and pass the ball effectively. Tenn. backup QB is more of a game manager. Georgia defense will have to play like they did vs. Texas or 2H vs. Alabama.

SMU -19 Insanely large spread, but it feels like a blowout coming. BC named a new QB, and Castellanos immediately left the program. Grayson James did a nice job in their Syracuse win, going 5 for 6 passing, but I remember him at FIU. He was awful. got a feeling SMu's very strong DL makes his life miserable, maybe makes BC go their 3rd option. SMU is being ranked like a Group of 5 team, and is pissed off a bit. They'll try to prove that they deserve a shot at a playoff spot.

Wake Forest +11 UNC almost always finds a way to F it up when things are going well. Mack Brown's MO I guess. Wake has a pretty poor defense, but will show up here well enough. Their offense can also keep up with UNC scores. This is one of those games where it feels like Wake can upset UNC.

 

[indiana]

Fred.....solid looking add ons buddy.....
have a winning weekend.....indy

 

[ofred]

Thanks Indy. GL on your plays.

Did that Louisiana Tech line drop to 11?

Small:

USF -2.5 It looks like USF will get its QB back this weekend at Charlotte. Byrum Brown is practicing, and is still questionable officially. Part of this play is that Charlotte has no good options at QB. This will enable USF to sell out to stop the run at times, and force their QBs to pass more than Charlotte would like to. Charlotte is still holding onto their one good win vs. ECU, but overall they have been a mess.

Stanford +20 Talk about a mess, that has been Stanford for its last 5-6 games. But this Stanford team has some positive attributes. They are off a bye, have 2 QBs that are at least competent, although turnover prone. Ashton Daniels is the better option. They also have some skill players that can make plays. The coaches will have an extra week to help the OL work on technique. This game is like Stanford's bowl game. They have nothing to lose. This UL team has a way with allowing lesser teams stay close, like their BC and Virginia games. Their defense is average.

Nebraska +7 Nebraska has shaken things up offensively, hiring Dana Holgorsen as their OC. Their QB is healthy off their bye. And Nebraska still has a pretty good defense, especially up front. USC will go with Jayden Maiava at QB, the former UNLV QB. Maiava gives USC more of a dual Threat than Miller Moss, but is not that polished as a passer. USC has lost 4 out of 5, and USC fans are souring on Lincoln Riley. Riley hasn't proved to be the offensive genius he was made out to be. The defense is better than 2023, but USC still finds ways to lose. USC lost 5 of their last 6 regular season games in 2023, and that was with Caleb Williams at QB. Their one win was a 1 point win vs. Cal.

 

[ofred]

Small:

Georgia Southern -7 (-125) Georgia Southern improved their defense from last year's team, the 2023 version being awful. Their only bad loss, except for power 5 games, was on the road to ODU. Good spot for them here at home, off a bye, sitting at 6-3 and wanting to sew up a bowl spot. Troy has had issues with their young team, and at QB, and a defense that makes too many tackles in the secondary and gets very few turnovers.

 

[ofred]

USF not getting Byrum Brown back today. Downgrading that play, but still have it.

 

[Creeg]

Oh Fred!!!

 

[ofred]

Large 7-3
Small 3-3
Thank you Wake for that backdoor cover.

 

[indiana]

Fred....sell done buddy....
thank you.....indy

 

[lakrfan2000]

Nice day Fred!

 

[gander1]

Early Saturday Large:

Northwestern +29.5 The venue of Wrigley Field just makes me think this game gets a little wonky. Grass, divots, weird layout of the field. Northwestern will need their QB to play as he has a for a few games this season, and not like the crappy others. In other words, at least a game manager with some RPO and scrambling to pass. Ohio State has Indiana on tap next week, and I doubt they'll need to run up the score and risk injury in the 2H. I'm not sure, but I think the Wrigley greass is pretty thick, and this could slow down the OSU receivers a bit. OSU looks like the number 2 team in the country, but not as good as previous OSU teams.

Arkansas +13.5 The feeling here is that Texas is a bit overrated and hasn't faced many good QBs or offenses this season. Arkansas has their star RB back, and Taylen Green can make things interesting with his mobility. Arkansas off a bye, Texas off a beatdown of Florida playing with a QB that has no business playing FBS football. Pittman's teams have had some upsets and close losses over the past few years, and this could be another.

Louisiana Tech +14 (-115) After I trashed LT last week in my Jacksonville St. bet, I've reconsidered. WKU has played garbage most of the season and gave up over 300 yards rushing to NMSU recently. LT QB Evan Bullock is showing growth and the ability to drive his team down the field. They should have beaten JS last week. WKU has a habit of not being able to put teams away, and LT's defense is respectable enough to make that true again.

Tulane -7 If you've seen Tulane play, you know how good they are on both sides of the ball. If they can properly keep their defensive assignments vs. this Navy team, they can absolutely beat them convincingly. Tulane has such a dynamic offense, and I just can't see the Navy defense able to physically match stop them. Tulane will probably be left out of the playoff seeding, and that early K. State loss will be one of the reasons. They matched up easily with them, but blew it late.

Terrific write-up on the Tulane game. They were superior to Navy on both sides of the ball with motivation to still make the playoffs. Meanwhile, Navy's dream of an unbeaten season and Top 25 ranking had gone up in smoke prior to the Tulane game. Perfect receipt for a blowout and you nailed it as a large play. Congrats!