-Well...last week went poorly...0-2 to bring posted record to 19-13-1 on the season. I have 4 system plays...and one additional game I like. System plays are those that identify dogs that have chance to rise up (based on passing offense and defense).
System Plays:
Dallas +8
NYG +3.5 (buy the hook)
Hous +3.5 (buy the hook)
Additional Play:
Carolina -2.5
TB -4.5 1st half (this is a system where one bets against west coast team with 1pm start in east....like starting game at 10am for them)
Now...Dall and Hous have not panned out well under the system play the past few weeks. That raises the caution flag to me...as teams get selected by the system in streaks...and if the team selected in streaks keeps failing to cover, my experience has been that they are a risky play.
However, having said that....the Cowboys moved the ball reasonably well last week vs. the Eagles. A couple long TD passes and a muffed punt and special teams score gave 4 TDs to Philly. I don't expect Balt offense to be as successful, and not as likely to hit the big play as Phil did. I think Dallas can move the ball on Balt -- the biggest weakness for Balt D is secondary, and Dallas offense totally depends on the pass. So...getting 8 when much of the whole world will assume Balt at H is a lock is fair. In fact, my guess is that at a site like BoDog the line will close at gametime at probably 8.5 or 9. If Dallas doesn't cover, I suspect it must be due to Balt D scoring a couple TDs (directly or indirectly with a turnover deep in dall territory).
Houston is still capable. The offense has been a bit "dormant" the past few weeks, but I think that they can match up relatively well vs. Packers in terms of passing game. Plus, the system has been much stronger when it identifies a home dog (25-12-1) than when it identifies a road dog (63-55-2) since 2002. I think Carr will be able to successfully throw on GB, and keep the game close.
System Plays:
Dallas +8
NYG +3.5 (buy the hook)
Hous +3.5 (buy the hook)
Additional Play:
Carolina -2.5
TB -4.5 1st half (this is a system where one bets against west coast team with 1pm start in east....like starting game at 10am for them)
Now...Dall and Hous have not panned out well under the system play the past few weeks. That raises the caution flag to me...as teams get selected by the system in streaks...and if the team selected in streaks keeps failing to cover, my experience has been that they are a risky play.
However, having said that....the Cowboys moved the ball reasonably well last week vs. the Eagles. A couple long TD passes and a muffed punt and special teams score gave 4 TDs to Philly. I don't expect Balt offense to be as successful, and not as likely to hit the big play as Phil did. I think Dallas can move the ball on Balt -- the biggest weakness for Balt D is secondary, and Dallas offense totally depends on the pass. So...getting 8 when much of the whole world will assume Balt at H is a lock is fair. In fact, my guess is that at a site like BoDog the line will close at gametime at probably 8.5 or 9. If Dallas doesn't cover, I suspect it must be due to Balt D scoring a couple TDs (directly or indirectly with a turnover deep in dall territory).
Houston is still capable. The offense has been a bit "dormant" the past few weeks, but I think that they can match up relatively well vs. Packers in terms of passing game. Plus, the system has been much stronger when it identifies a home dog (25-12-1) than when it identifies a road dog (63-55-2) since 2002. I think Carr will be able to successfully throw on GB, and keep the game close.
