Week 1

ESQAJM · Aug 11, 2004

Picks For Week One-Don't ask me for reasons as I can't give you any solid handicapping reasons for my picks. But my system works well for me in the preseason, year after year. All plays rated from 1 to 5 stars.

Baltimore -Under 33.5 2*
Giants -2.5 2*
Pitt +3 3*
Pitt -Over 35.5 2*

Teaser:
Pitt) +9
Pitt) Over 29.5 3*

I really like SF/Oakland Over 35.5, but I don't know how the SF QBs will perform so I'm passing.
ESQAJM

ESQAJM · Aug 12, 2004

Additional Info:

Bets should be made based on the number of stars each play has.

Each star represents 1 betting unit. Because of the uncertainty of these games I will never have a 1 unit play.

To give you a further idea, I consider a 3* play a 65% to 70% certainty to win. In other words I should win about 2 out of 3 of my 3* plays.
ESQAJM

BigLou+ · Aug 12, 2004

ESQAJM,

Good luck to you sir.

Big Lou

hansenbros. · Aug 12, 2004

great call on the under ajm!!!!

gl

ESQAJM · Aug 14, 2004

Preseason Record: 2-0 +4 Units

I just found out that Charlie Batch, a veteran QB, who was the backup QB for Pittsburgh had season ending surgery on his knee yesterday.

In my picks for week 1, I had Pitt +3 and Over 35.5 as top plays. I don't feel comfortable with those picks anymore knowing that Ben Roethlisberger and Brian St Pierre, two rookies who have never played an NFL game in their lives
will play 3 quarters of the game for Pitt.

I am canceling my 2 plays on Pitt +3 and Over 35. I will leave my teaser going, but will downgrade it from a 3* play to a 1* play. There will be better games to wager on next week.
ESQAJM

ESQAJM · Aug 14, 2004

Sunday Plays:

Denver -2.5 2*

Teaser:
Denver +3.5
Denver O29 2*

It bothers me to know that I could have had this game at pick or -1 a few days ago. I usually have a rule that when I like a favorite I bet them as early in the week as possible because I find from experience that 80% of line moves are favorites going higher.But I feel that it's a good value anyway and Denver should score a bunch of points.
ESQAJM