Week 1 NFL 9/9 - 9/13

[BlackampGold]

All Plays One Unit
Preseason: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season: 0-0 0.00% +0.00U
Total = +6.47U


9/9 Thursday


New England -3 -113

I normally wouldn't consider taking a defending Super Bowl Champion as a home favorite on opening day but... just can't make a case for Indy here; NE is on a 15 game SU winning streak, were 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS at home last season and allowed an average of just 6.25 PPG at home in their last eight home games including the playoffs. Yes, that was last year but while NE returns their team + Corey Dillon, Indianapolis may have actually weakened their defense by letting both of their 2003 starting corners walk. Projected starting CB Jefferson is out and 2 other secondary members (Doss & Strickland) are battling injuries and are officially listed as questionable. I expect Brady to spread the field and attack the inexperienced and banged up secondary of the Colts. Preseason is not an accurate predictor of regular season performance but it should be noted that the Colts 1st team offense was anything but sharp in the preseason often struggling to mount sustained drives yet alone score. Consensus seems fairly split as Manning and the Colts are getting their fair share of money so I don't feel the burden of backing a big public favorite here. I'm putting my money on the champs in what should be a very entertaining game.

 

[jaypaw]

plus colvin


no?

 

[BlackampGold]

Yes, Jaypaw, good point but minus Teddy Washington. No major holes in that New England defense unlike Indy is the way I see it.

 

[jaypaw]

ahh but they did get a couple of big tubs to fill the hole left by the departure of TW

especially traylor - theres a tub o lard for ya

hopefully colvin can be the axe murderer that he used to be

 

[BlackampGold]

9/12 Sunday


SD/Houston OVER 43.5 -111

I have a hard time seeing how either of these defenses are going to stop anyone. Houston allowed more rushing YPG than all but one team & more rushing TDs than all but nine last season. Houston really struggled against pass-catching backs as well which makes the task of facing Tomlinson in week 1 not very promising. For what it is worth, SD score more points than any team in preseason racking up big totals versus Arizona & San Francisco. While Houston's defense is better than these teams, I still see San Diego being able to score in this game. The Chargers allowed more than 180 yards rushing 5 times last season and the Texans should be able to open up big holes with their BIG O-line against the Chargers. SD allowed multiple TD passes 11 times last season and all reports on Carr is that he is sharp and poised for a breakout year. I bought a 1/2 point at Pinnacle to get this total to 43.5 so 24-20 is a winner. 72% of the public @ wagerline likes the under which is probably in reaction to a high number with 2 bad teams. The defenses are the weakness for both teams so I like the over.



Jacksonville/Buffalo UNDER 35 -104

Mike Mularkey has been working with Bledsoe to change from his gunslinging ways to a short pass, ball-control offense. They will surely be looking to run the ball with Travis Henry quite a bit as well. This is partly due to an offensive line that really struggled last season and doesn't look to be much better this year. The Bills draw a very tough defense in Jacksonville. If the Jags have a weakness it is in their secondary so running the ball and short passing will not expose that group. Travis Henry rushed 21 times for just 26 yards last season against the Jags. Jacksonville's 1st unit struggled to find any rhythm in the preseason and also have a tough draw with the Bills defense on the road. The Bills were #8 in the NFL against the run last season and return the same D-line. With a tough core of LB's and a secondary that won't miss a beat(subtract Winfield, add Vincent), the Bills should be able to control the Jags offense. 62% are on the OVER at wagerline which is the second highest "over" consensus on the card right now.

 

[BlackampGold]

NY Giants/Philadelphia OVER 42 -107

I have some confidence that the Giants may be able to post a modest point total in this game contrary to popular belief. Kurt Warner is an experienced QB and the Giants have enough weapons to make a dent if the offensive line can just hold its own (BIG IF I know). The Eagles have two new starting corners this season, lost Carlos Emmons to free agency, and their depth on defense(especially LB) has been minimized due to injuries. I saw a stat that recently signed Giants kicker Steve Christie allowed the worst starting field position in the league last year due to short kickoffs. Well, that is the last thing the Giants defense needed because the Eagles should have little trouble against the Giants defense. McNabb is healthy and has Terrell Owens and an improved offensive line to work with against a bad Giants secondary (even if Will Allen was/is 100%). Philly could approach 30 in this game in my opinion which will leave little for the Giants to push this over. Consensus appears to be split on this total but Pinnacle has pushed the total to 43 after opening at 41.5.

 

[BlackampGold]

Denver -3 -102

Denver made it a point to upgrade their defense in the offseason and I'm sure the Chiefs were the primary motivation. Adding Champ Bailey and John Lynch upgrades the secondary and Elliss, Coleman, & Johnson join Price in what should be an improved line. These moves should lead to a stingier defense and allow more of a pass rush to try and disrupt Trent Green. Green has a hobbled, unimpressive WR core but still has Holmes & Gonzalez. Bottom line is KC should have a more difficult time with this defense than in the past. On the other side of the ball, Lelie is a bad matchup for KC's corners who lack size and speed plus Rod Smith had two of his best games last year versus the Chiefs. KC is missing their first and second team middle LB's which will only make a bad run defense worse. KC is going with an impressive rookie kicker but he is still a rookie and this is an ESPN Primetime game so you wonder if nerves may cause a miss or two as well.

 

[BlackampGold]

9/13 Monday


Green Bay/Carolina OVER 43.5 -104

 

[Co-Captain]

B&G...Best of luck to you this season...Lets have a good and fun time again...Kick Ass my friend and Aloha as always...CC.

 

[BlackampGold]

Lots of success to you also Co-Cap.


Record update after week one:

All Plays One Unit
Week 1: 4-1 80.00% +2.96U
Preseason: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season: 4-1 80.00% +2.96U
Total = 20-10 66.67% +9.43U