Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Wednesday
Two personal plays for the upcoming week have been posted here as free plays the last couple of days. Today’s comp is on another NFL Sunday game, but as of now this one is just an opinion. That could change later in the week, and if it does, I’ll update both here as well as on Twitter.
PATRIOTS at CARDINALS 8:30 PM
TAKE: CARDINALS -6
I could write a lengthy piece building a case for the Cardinals in this game, but to be perfectly candid, this opinion is based solely on one huge factor. That, of course, is the absence of Tom Brady, who will be serving the first of his four-game suspension.
As far as my numbers are concerned, Brady is the single most important player in the entire NFL. Maybe I’m overrating his suspension, but the fact is I docked the Patriots a full seven points in making my line for this matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo might make me look foolish on Sunday night, but let’s just say I’m going to have to be convinced.
With Brady on the field, this game would be a tossup. I would have Arizona as just a one-point favorite playing host to the Patriots. But with the untested Garoppolo taking the snaps, I now make the Cardinals -8. So based on where the current line resides, it reads advantage Arizona.
The holdup on going ahead and releasing this as a personal service play is also based on one individual. That would be Bill Belichick. In addition to being a very dangerous guy to lay points to under almost any circumstances, if there’s one coach who can overcome such obvious adversity, Belichick is absolutely that coach.
There’s still a possibility this game ends up on my card, as I see this as an extraordinarily tough spot for Garoppolo to make his first NFL start. I’d be shocked if the Cardinals don’t try to pressure him into mistakes, and I’m not sold that the New England running backs are going to be able to do enough damage on a consistent basis to prevent Garoppolo from having too many obvious passing situations.
Again, I’ll update later in the week as to whether this remains an opinion or gets upgraded to a personal play. But it’ll definitely be Cardinals or pass for me.