SPORTS WAGERS
FedEx St. Jude Classic
As tests of pure ball-striking go, TPC Southwind is right up there with the best of them. This Bermudagrass set-up features the unholy duo of tight fairways and smaller-than-average greens, and to make matters worse, these are super-fast as well. The difference between an uphill and a downhill putt is stark. Thus, accurate striking and course management is key, as is the ability to make the most of Par 4s: Southwind is a Par 70 measuring 7,244 yards with just two Par 5s to take advantage of.
Built on the site of an old dairy farm in Memphis, former US Open champions Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green joined forces with Ron Pritchard on design duties, although a 2004 redesign changed the nature of the track. Trees were removed and the Bentgrass was replaced by Bermuda for a test more in keeping with the hot conditions. Even so, hazards remain – Southwind navigates its way past naturally-formed streams, lakes and ponds, and the rough is kept deliberately long in an attempt to simulate US Open style toughness.
Minimizing mistakes is obviously crucial to winning golf tournaments – that’s a given, but at certain courses where birdie chances are at a premium (there’s only two Par 5s at Southwind) avoiding bogeys or worse is essential. A year ago, Daniel Berger (last year’s winner) bogeyed just six of the 72 holes he played – or, in other words, just 8%. He only recorded birdie or better at 28%, so that speaks volumes of the kind of player we’re looking for this week. Generally speaking, one can keep the ball on a string or whack it miles and scramble well, but the key point is finding lots of greens in regulation and making putting easier with clever approach play that leaves uphill putts that are a lot slower against the grain……that’s s the shortcut to success in Memphis.
A week shy of the second major of the year, it’s not a big surprise to see a relatively sparse field make the trip to Memphis, Tennessee this week. The early suggestion is that Erin Hills will provide a beastly test for those in the field and perhaps the elite of world golf can be forgiven for working on their game behind closed doors ahead of the year’s second major. Due to the absence of so many great players, this is one of our favorite betting events of the year. Hopefully one or more of the following will be in the mix on Sunday.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
Chad Campbell 125-1
The perennial ‘sleeper’ when conditions suit, Chad Campbell can deliver a fine performance for anyone in search of a great value play. He’s seven-for-seven at Southwind, with a T8 in 2015 and a T3 in 2012 the obvious standouts and once again he has had a fine season at shorter tracks where careful course management is key. T6 at the CareerBuilder Challenge, T11 at Valspar, T13 at Byron Nelson, and T13 at the RSM Classic have all come in this term and lest we forget those are all played at courses of below 7,400 yards (this course is 7,244 yards). So the upshot is get Campbell on a shorter track and he invariably comes up with the goods. Whether you focus on his performance this season or his record at TPC Southwind, both hit the center of the fairway when it comes to the kind of workmanlike expectation he's established throughout his career and this is as good a spot as any for him. The price is sweet too (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups for Campbell so we’re going to insert an unrelated one here. The bet is Luke List to finish ahead of Nick Watley:
List has missed five cuts from his last six starts but when he’s on song, there’s few birdie merchants as reliable as he. List ranks 13th on Tour for Birdie Average and so if he can just make the weekend, we’re very confident this bet will cash. He is a monster off the tee – not the most accurate as a result, but he still finds 68% of greens which suggests his powers of redemption are excellent.
L. List +101 over N. Watley (risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units).
D.A. Points 175-1
Make no mistake, the Puerto Rico Open is a second grade PGA TOUR event but it still takes some winning regardless. D.A. Points’ return of -20 was an outstanding effort. He very rarely features on leaderboards of top-tier Tour events because he is so short off the tee with an average drive of 272 yards. However, this is a three-time PGA TOUR winner who is super accurate off the tee, and he finished T18 on his last trip to TPC Southwind 12 months ago. That combination of factors makes him an outside bet for success this week and when the field is this wide open, we could do a lot worse Points ranks 4th ON TOUR in Approaches from 50-125 yards, 25th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 33rd ON TOUR in Driving Accuracy (risking 0.2 units to win 35 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups for D.A. Points so we’re going to insert another unrelated one here. The bet is Sy Noh to finish ahead of William McGirt
In his title defense at Muirfield Village last week, McGirt finished T67. He closed with an 83 but started the final round outside the top 25, anyway. Now poised for his sixth appearance at TPC Southwind where he owns a pedestrian record (2-for-5 with one top 30), it is advised to wait him out for a site where his horse-for-a-course value exists. This isn’t it, thus this is more a fade on McGirt. #7029 S. Noh +129 over W. McGirt (Risking 1 unit to win 1.29 units)
Brandon Hagy 160-1
One day soon, Brandon Hagy is going to open up some eyes. The 26-year-old Web.com Tour Finals grad is a first-time member of the PGA TOUR but he's not technically a rookie because he made eight starts in 2014-15. He's also not necessarily struggling like one. Currently 130th in the FedExCup standings, the Californian is 11-for-16 with a trio of top 25s this season. His most recent came in his last start, a T18 at the Wells Fargo Championship where he either matched or improved on his previous score in every round. Stupid long off the tee despite an average frame, a slight tweak to improve his accuracy would make him a threat almost every week. Hagy ranks 4th ON TOUR in driving distance (309.5), 2nd ON TOUR in Club Head Speed and 22nd on TOUR in Sand Save percentage. Hagy just missed qualifying for the U.S. Open, thus he figures to be super focused here on the task at hand while many others will be looking ahead Hagy is looking at a busy summer. He said he will be traveling and playing for several months without a break (risking 0.2 units to win 32 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups for Brandon Hagy so we’re going to insert another unrelated one here.
The bet is K. Stanley to finish ahead of Ryan Palmer
This one is interesting to say the least but it’s our KEY MATCHUP of the event and thus, we’re playing it to win 2 units.
What sticks out to us is that Pinnacle Sports has no head-to-head match-ups available for Ryan Palmer. That’s telling considering that Palmer is only 40-1 and the 12th shortest price on the board. That’s curious so it prompted us to delve a little deeper. As it turns out, Palmer still has a chance to play in the U.S. Open next week as the first alternate from the U.S. Open sectional qualifier Monday and Tuesday at Lakewood Country Club in Dallas. Palmer tied for fourth place — the top three automatically qualify — shooting 7-under and won a playoff for the first alternate spot over Edward Loar and Alvaro Ortiz. Thus, Palmer is waiting (anticipating) a spot in the US open. He’s 40 years old and is coming off a +10 over at the Dean & DeLuca. He’s not in good form at all and also had to play Monday and Tuesday for a chance to qualify for next week’s major event. Perhaps most telling in relation to this bet is that Pinnacle Sports (the sharpest book in the land) has Kyle Stanley -151 to beat Bill Horschel. At Bet 365, we get Stanley as a -138 favorite to beat Palmer and we couldn’t be more confident about a bet.
A classic ball striker’s test requires a classic ball striker to make hay while the sun shines and in the past few months Kyle Stanley has been absolutely dialed in with his irons. Ranking second on Tour for Greens in Regulation (GIR), third for Proximity, seventh for Strokes Gained: Approach, and ninth for Par 4 Performance, Stanley is ideally suited to Southwind. With three top-10’s in his last five starts, the form is certainly there to vastly improve upon his past record in the St. Jude Classic, and an examination of his best work this term – T4 at TPC Sawgrass, T6 at Muirfield Village, and T8 in Houston – suggests he is best suited to shorter tests of clean hitting.
Stanley is not only a great bet here, he’s our “horse for the course” in DFS but this bet to beat Palmer looks very strong.
John Peterson 160-1
We could easily make an argument that Southwind is the perfect course for John Peterson and his T19 finish in his last outing here in 2014 suggests that there is plenty of evidence to support our claim. Not the longest by any means, Peterson can certainly keep the golf ball on a string when required, ranking 35th for Driving Accuracy, 41st for GIR, and 12th for Approaches from 175-200 yards. He even ranks 13th for Scrambling to highlight his redemptive powers. Peterson is not a regular on the PGA TOUR and so his form is patchy as a result, but T12 at the Phoenix Open and T14 at the OHL Classic this season identifies what he is capable of on his day. Born in Texas and schooled in Louisiana, the hot weather won’t faze Peterson this week. He ranks 30th ON TOUR in Approaches from 100-125 yards and 41st ON TOUR for Greens in Regulation. This week, we took four golfers at big odds because we strongly trust that this is the week that a bomb or two will be on the first page of the leaderboard. There are many to choose from and Peterson joins our list of bombs above that have a legit shot of things fall right (risking 0.2 units to win 2).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups for J. Peterson so we’re going to insert another unrelated one here. The bet is S. Brown to finish ahead of J. Furyk.
This is really a fade against Furyk although we would not be a bit surprised of Scott Brown had a very good tournament. Brown has had two second place finishes already this year at the Genesis Open and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, not to mention a T12 at the Dean & DeLuca juast two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Furyk is not that far removed from terrific form post-wrist surgery in 2016. Alas, he arrives in Memphis having missed five consecutive cuts (since the Masters) and without a top-35 finish in stroke-play competition this year. Also hasn't seen TPC Southwind since his debut in 1994. #7047 S. Brown +102 over J. Furyk (Risking 1 unit to win 1.02).
FedEx St. Jude Classic
As tests of pure ball-striking go, TPC Southwind is right up there with the best of them. This Bermudagrass set-up features the unholy duo of tight fairways and smaller-than-average greens, and to make matters worse, these are super-fast as well. The difference between an uphill and a downhill putt is stark. Thus, accurate striking and course management is key, as is the ability to make the most of Par 4s: Southwind is a Par 70 measuring 7,244 yards with just two Par 5s to take advantage of.
Built on the site of an old dairy farm in Memphis, former US Open champions Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green joined forces with Ron Pritchard on design duties, although a 2004 redesign changed the nature of the track. Trees were removed and the Bentgrass was replaced by Bermuda for a test more in keeping with the hot conditions. Even so, hazards remain – Southwind navigates its way past naturally-formed streams, lakes and ponds, and the rough is kept deliberately long in an attempt to simulate US Open style toughness.
Minimizing mistakes is obviously crucial to winning golf tournaments – that’s a given, but at certain courses where birdie chances are at a premium (there’s only two Par 5s at Southwind) avoiding bogeys or worse is essential. A year ago, Daniel Berger (last year’s winner) bogeyed just six of the 72 holes he played – or, in other words, just 8%. He only recorded birdie or better at 28%, so that speaks volumes of the kind of player we’re looking for this week. Generally speaking, one can keep the ball on a string or whack it miles and scramble well, but the key point is finding lots of greens in regulation and making putting easier with clever approach play that leaves uphill putts that are a lot slower against the grain……that’s s the shortcut to success in Memphis.
A week shy of the second major of the year, it’s not a big surprise to see a relatively sparse field make the trip to Memphis, Tennessee this week. The early suggestion is that Erin Hills will provide a beastly test for those in the field and perhaps the elite of world golf can be forgiven for working on their game behind closed doors ahead of the year’s second major. Due to the absence of so many great players, this is one of our favorite betting events of the year. Hopefully one or more of the following will be in the mix on Sunday.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
Chad Campbell 125-1
The perennial ‘sleeper’ when conditions suit, Chad Campbell can deliver a fine performance for anyone in search of a great value play. He’s seven-for-seven at Southwind, with a T8 in 2015 and a T3 in 2012 the obvious standouts and once again he has had a fine season at shorter tracks where careful course management is key. T6 at the CareerBuilder Challenge, T11 at Valspar, T13 at Byron Nelson, and T13 at the RSM Classic have all come in this term and lest we forget those are all played at courses of below 7,400 yards (this course is 7,244 yards). So the upshot is get Campbell on a shorter track and he invariably comes up with the goods. Whether you focus on his performance this season or his record at TPC Southwind, both hit the center of the fairway when it comes to the kind of workmanlike expectation he's established throughout his career and this is as good a spot as any for him. The price is sweet too (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups for Campbell so we’re going to insert an unrelated one here. The bet is Luke List to finish ahead of Nick Watley:
List has missed five cuts from his last six starts but when he’s on song, there’s few birdie merchants as reliable as he. List ranks 13th on Tour for Birdie Average and so if he can just make the weekend, we’re very confident this bet will cash. He is a monster off the tee – not the most accurate as a result, but he still finds 68% of greens which suggests his powers of redemption are excellent.
L. List +101 over N. Watley (risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units).
D.A. Points 175-1
Make no mistake, the Puerto Rico Open is a second grade PGA TOUR event but it still takes some winning regardless. D.A. Points’ return of -20 was an outstanding effort. He very rarely features on leaderboards of top-tier Tour events because he is so short off the tee with an average drive of 272 yards. However, this is a three-time PGA TOUR winner who is super accurate off the tee, and he finished T18 on his last trip to TPC Southwind 12 months ago. That combination of factors makes him an outside bet for success this week and when the field is this wide open, we could do a lot worse Points ranks 4th ON TOUR in Approaches from 50-125 yards, 25th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 33rd ON TOUR in Driving Accuracy (risking 0.2 units to win 35 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups for D.A. Points so we’re going to insert another unrelated one here. The bet is Sy Noh to finish ahead of William McGirt
In his title defense at Muirfield Village last week, McGirt finished T67. He closed with an 83 but started the final round outside the top 25, anyway. Now poised for his sixth appearance at TPC Southwind where he owns a pedestrian record (2-for-5 with one top 30), it is advised to wait him out for a site where his horse-for-a-course value exists. This isn’t it, thus this is more a fade on McGirt. #7029 S. Noh +129 over W. McGirt (Risking 1 unit to win 1.29 units)
Brandon Hagy 160-1
One day soon, Brandon Hagy is going to open up some eyes. The 26-year-old Web.com Tour Finals grad is a first-time member of the PGA TOUR but he's not technically a rookie because he made eight starts in 2014-15. He's also not necessarily struggling like one. Currently 130th in the FedExCup standings, the Californian is 11-for-16 with a trio of top 25s this season. His most recent came in his last start, a T18 at the Wells Fargo Championship where he either matched or improved on his previous score in every round. Stupid long off the tee despite an average frame, a slight tweak to improve his accuracy would make him a threat almost every week. Hagy ranks 4th ON TOUR in driving distance (309.5), 2nd ON TOUR in Club Head Speed and 22nd on TOUR in Sand Save percentage. Hagy just missed qualifying for the U.S. Open, thus he figures to be super focused here on the task at hand while many others will be looking ahead Hagy is looking at a busy summer. He said he will be traveling and playing for several months without a break (risking 0.2 units to win 32 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups for Brandon Hagy so we’re going to insert another unrelated one here.
The bet is K. Stanley to finish ahead of Ryan Palmer
This one is interesting to say the least but it’s our KEY MATCHUP of the event and thus, we’re playing it to win 2 units.
What sticks out to us is that Pinnacle Sports has no head-to-head match-ups available for Ryan Palmer. That’s telling considering that Palmer is only 40-1 and the 12th shortest price on the board. That’s curious so it prompted us to delve a little deeper. As it turns out, Palmer still has a chance to play in the U.S. Open next week as the first alternate from the U.S. Open sectional qualifier Monday and Tuesday at Lakewood Country Club in Dallas. Palmer tied for fourth place — the top three automatically qualify — shooting 7-under and won a playoff for the first alternate spot over Edward Loar and Alvaro Ortiz. Thus, Palmer is waiting (anticipating) a spot in the US open. He’s 40 years old and is coming off a +10 over at the Dean & DeLuca. He’s not in good form at all and also had to play Monday and Tuesday for a chance to qualify for next week’s major event. Perhaps most telling in relation to this bet is that Pinnacle Sports (the sharpest book in the land) has Kyle Stanley -151 to beat Bill Horschel. At Bet 365, we get Stanley as a -138 favorite to beat Palmer and we couldn’t be more confident about a bet.
A classic ball striker’s test requires a classic ball striker to make hay while the sun shines and in the past few months Kyle Stanley has been absolutely dialed in with his irons. Ranking second on Tour for Greens in Regulation (GIR), third for Proximity, seventh for Strokes Gained: Approach, and ninth for Par 4 Performance, Stanley is ideally suited to Southwind. With three top-10’s in his last five starts, the form is certainly there to vastly improve upon his past record in the St. Jude Classic, and an examination of his best work this term – T4 at TPC Sawgrass, T6 at Muirfield Village, and T8 in Houston – suggests he is best suited to shorter tests of clean hitting.
Stanley is not only a great bet here, he’s our “horse for the course” in DFS but this bet to beat Palmer looks very strong.
John Peterson 160-1
We could easily make an argument that Southwind is the perfect course for John Peterson and his T19 finish in his last outing here in 2014 suggests that there is plenty of evidence to support our claim. Not the longest by any means, Peterson can certainly keep the golf ball on a string when required, ranking 35th for Driving Accuracy, 41st for GIR, and 12th for Approaches from 175-200 yards. He even ranks 13th for Scrambling to highlight his redemptive powers. Peterson is not a regular on the PGA TOUR and so his form is patchy as a result, but T12 at the Phoenix Open and T14 at the OHL Classic this season identifies what he is capable of on his day. Born in Texas and schooled in Louisiana, the hot weather won’t faze Peterson this week. He ranks 30th ON TOUR in Approaches from 100-125 yards and 41st ON TOUR for Greens in Regulation. This week, we took four golfers at big odds because we strongly trust that this is the week that a bomb or two will be on the first page of the leaderboard. There are many to choose from and Peterson joins our list of bombs above that have a legit shot of things fall right (risking 0.2 units to win 2).
Head-to-head matchup:
There are no head-to-head match-ups for J. Peterson so we’re going to insert another unrelated one here. The bet is S. Brown to finish ahead of J. Furyk.
This is really a fade against Furyk although we would not be a bit surprised of Scott Brown had a very good tournament. Brown has had two second place finishes already this year at the Genesis Open and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, not to mention a T12 at the Dean & DeLuca juast two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Furyk is not that far removed from terrific form post-wrist surgery in 2016. Alas, he arrives in Memphis having missed five consecutive cuts (since the Masters) and without a top-35 finish in stroke-play competition this year. Also hasn't seen TPC Southwind since his debut in 1994. #7047 S. Brown +102 over J. Furyk (Risking 1 unit to win 1.02).
