Dave Cokin
Wednesday Bonus Play 7:10 PM MLB
(923) OAKLAND ATHLETICS at (924) NEW YORK METS
Take: (923) OAKLAND ATHLETICS -110
Since I wrote about the immediate next game impact of first ever complete game shutouts above, I might as well take my shot at the pitcher that fits the theory tonight. Zack Wheeler threw the gem last time out as he blanked the Marlins. This was a superb performance by the talented Mets righty. He’s not always a control master, but he was in this spot and I can tell you that luck had very little to do with him recording the whitewash. Wheeler caught one good break following a leadoff single in one inning, as the next hitter ripped a rope that appeared headed down the right field line. Instead it went directly into the first baseman’s glove and resulted in a double play. But that can’t take away from how well Wheeler pitched against the Marlins.
The trick for Wheeler now is to avoid the bounce. That won’t be easy. One can figure the Athletics weren’t exactly thrilled at getting annihilated by the Mets last night, and the A’s are playing .621 ball of a loss this season. Wheeler has pitched roughly to the same level at home as he has on the road, but all his wins this season have come on enemy turf, as he’s still without a win at Citi.
Brad Mills will be Wheeler’s opposite number tonight. Mills is a finesse lefty who has carried the Quad-A label for some time now. His stuff is good enough for him to have put together some really fine stretches in the minors, but he just hasn’t been able to cut it at the big league level. This year has been more of the same for Mills, as he was lighting it up at Nashville, before being moved to the A’s by the Brewers. But sure enough, he struggled in his first start for Oakland, with less than impeccable control the culprit. That’s actually been the big issue for Mills at the highest level. He can’t generate swings and misses outside the zone against major league bats, and he’s a guy who needs to nibble to have success.
The good news for Mills is that he’s facing a lineup that has largely struggled at home vs. lefties all season, with last night standing out as what I would call a blip. I’m expecting much less offense from the home team tonight, even against a mediocre southpaw in Mills. On the flip side, it’s a decent spot to back the A’s off a bad loss and Wheeler is in a prime bounce situation. It’s my feeling the line here is based too heavily on the starting pitchers, and too little on the team aspects. Thus, a rare spot where I can back the best team in the majors at a very cheap price. I’ll call for the Athletics to rebound from the Tuesday debacle with the win over the Mets tonight.
