SPORTS WAGERS
The Masters
Augusta National is one of the most iconic courses in golf, and home to some of the sport’s most unforgettable moments. This 7,435 yard, Par 72 stretch was the baby of Rees Jones and originally opened in 1933, but to keep The Masters as competitive and as unpredictable as possible, the course has undergone all manner of reboots and overhauls in that time.
In 2002, Tom Fazio was commissioned to give some TLC to this beloved track, and he did just that by lengthening holes, tightening fairways and overseeing a change from the old Bermudagrass greens to their current Bentgrass composition. It is upon these greens that champions are made and dreams crushed: they typically run at a rapid 13.5 on the stimpmeter. Built on the site of an old nursery, Augusta remains heavily tree-lined to this day, and each hole is named after a species of tree. The stroke average is generally over par most years, and we can understand more about the unique contours of Augusta by looking at each hole in detail:
Hole 1: Tea Olive (Par 4, 445 yards) – With a stroke index of 4.36 in 2016, the first hole was the second hardest on the course 12 months ago and it is easy to see why: your tee shot has to be threaded through overhanging trees, while the contoured green features brutal run-off areas. With nerves likely on the first tee, a par here is a decent way to start.
Hole 2: Pink Dogwood (Par 5, 575 yards) – The first Par 5 of Augusta and the easiest hole on the course, so it is one that players must take advantage of. The scoring average here 12 months ago was just 4.64, and that’s because there are no demons; just keep your tee shot to the right and enjoy a fantastic line in to the green.
Hole 3: Flowering Peach (Par 4, 350 yards) – This is a tough Par 4 that played at 4.14 in 2016, and that is largely because of the risk and reward approach in place: an iron off the tee can yield a secure par, while a long drive *can* yield results for those taking on the huge fairway bunker. The front of the green is capped by a huge slope, so pitching in well is key.
Hole 4: Flowering Crab Apple (Par 3, 240 yards) – A beastly Par 3, this was the third hardest hole on the course last year and it’s not hard to see why with that heavily sloping green and long yardage. This is where many dreams have been shattered early on Championship Sunday.
Hole 5: Magnolia (Par 4, 455 yards) – Sign for a par here and you have done a pretty good job. A scoring average of 4.22 this time last year tells its own tale of a hole that requires a pretty hefty draw off the tee for ideal position.
Hole 6: Juniper (Par 3, 180 yards) – With its huge slope downhill to the green, the sixth has become iconic as players have to hit over spectators’ heads off the tee! A small green and huge downslope requires optimum distance judgment and club selection, especially if the wind is swirling.
Hole 7: Pampas (Par 4, 450 yards) – One of Augusta’s tightest fairways, a long, straight hit will get you in prime position off the tee. Anything wayward can be catastrophic however: this was the fifth hardest hole last year. Five greenside bunkers enhance the challenge yet further.
Hole 8: Yellow Jasmine (Par 5, 570 yards) – Another Par 5, another chance to score. Danny Willett played this hole at just -1 a year ago, but on average it was the third easiest on the course. Steeply uphill, the tee box was moved back as part of one of the more recent overhauls and a tactically placed bunker can negate the advantage of the bombers. But, clear the sand and there is the outside chance of finding the dancefloor in two.
Hole 9: Caroline Cherry (Par 4, 460 yards) – One of the easier Par 4 stretches at Augusta, a devastatingly sloping green requires sensible course management; approach shots have been known to roll more than 50 yards away if pitching on the downslope. One of the few holes at Augusta where long-drivers hold a significant advantage.
Hole 10: Camellia (Par 4, 495 yards) – The start of the back nine and a well-shaped draw here can propel the ball towards the optimum landing area at a rate of knots. The trees on the right-hand side are where Bubba played his miraculous escape shot to win his first Masters in 2012.
Hole 11: Magnolia (Par 4, 455 yards) – Here we go: Amen Corner. And what a way to start with the hardest hole on the course. The scoring average in 2016 was 4.52, and you sense that most in the field would be happy to take a five and move on. To get to the top of the fairway hill a huge drive is required, while guarding the left-hand side of the green is a huge water feature that has provided the backdrop to many a collapse over the years. Willett played the 11th in level par last year, which will have helped his confidence no end.
Hole 12: Golden Bell (Par 3, 155 yards) – If you get through Magnolia unscathed don’t rest on your laurels just yet. The 12th was the ultimate undoing for Spieth 12 months ago with his quadruple bogey, and while the yardage is short the approach from the tee box is tricky.
Hole 13: Azalea (Par 5, 510 yards) – One of the few holes to play under par last year, you can sense the pressure is on the players to really make their mark here after the Magnolia-Golden Bell double header. A decent drive sets up a mid-range iron over Rae’s Creek, and a birdie here really is a must.
Hole 14: Chinese Fir (Par 4, 440 yards) – Willett played this in -2 last year, and while that does do a disservice to its difficulty, the sense is that Chinese Fir can be attacked. There are no bunkers or major hazards here, just a multi-shelved green that can be overcome with a decent approach.
Hole 15: Firethorn (Par 5, 530 yards) – The last of the Par 5s and another to play under par; helped by the expansive landing area off the tee. There is a water hazard at the front of the green and the downward sloping nature of the putting surface has seen many a ball roll off and into oblivion.
Hole 16: Redbud (Par 3, 170 yards) – Perhaps the easiest Par 3 at Augusta, but with nerves jangling as the finishing line approaches and water and sand framing the green, it is anything but a gimme. Willet’s Sunday birdie here kept his title challenge alive.
Hole 17: Nandina (Par 4, 440 yards) – One of the most wildly undulating greens in world golf plays out some putting disasters on the course’s penultimate hole, and if your approach pitches badly then you can once again be 50 yards or more from immortality.
Hole 18: Holly (Par 4, 465 yards) – The final hole of a torturous 18 and this played some 0.24 over par 12 months ago. It looks fairly nonthreatening to the naked eye, but carefully placed bunkers and overhanging trees can make life a misery. But a decent iron in that catches the right slope (this green goes off in crazy directions) can lead to a mid-range putt for birdie. And who knows, perhaps the title of Masters champion 2017!
So what will transpire in the 2017 edition of The Masters? Who knows, but one thing is for sure: there will be plenty of ups and downs as part of this exhilarating thrill-ride in a small town in Texas. The numerous sub-plots are in place. Has any golfer in history been in better form heading into a Masters renewal than Dustin Johnson? This is a guy who has won the last three tournaments he has entered, and is helping to take the sport into a whole new stratosphere. A first try on of the Green Jacket would be a fitting epitaph to a wonderful year for DJ.
As for Rory McIlroy, it’s now nearly a year since he won anywhere and two-and-a-half years since he triumphed in a major. You sense that the Ulsterman is desperate to get back in the saddle. Questions remain around the psychological wellbeing of Spieth as he returns to Augusta for the first time, as well as the mental and physical health of Jason Day too.
So, could this be the year that an outsider wins The Masters? That was certainly the case last year when Danny Willett romped home at a sportsbook price of 125-1 and while he is the longest-priced winner for a number of years, Augusta still throws up some surprises. Matt Fitzpatrick, the English rookie, marked his second trip to Augusta – and his first as a pro – with a T7 finish after an error-free Sunday round of 67. In 2014, young upstart Spieth had a chance of glory in his first trip to the course, as did wily old veterans Miguel Angel-Jimenez, Jonas Blixt, and Thomas Bjorn. Bubba Watson would eventually seal his second Masters triumph with a steady final round of 69. Those at longer odds with the Vegas books must not be ignored, as they often have a part to play in the destination of the Green Jacket and that will be our focus here.
The beauty of The Masters is that it is played at the same venue year in, year out, and the upshot of that is we have a huge raft of stats and trends to work with. For example, in the last 20 years we know that only four players have missed the cut the week before they triumphed at Augusta. That suggests an 80% chance that the likes of Spieth, Stenson, Scott, and Patrick Reed won’t get the job done this week. Of course, these patterns are there to be broken, but some of the evidence is so compelling that it would be foolish not to consider these points prior to making your bets or drafting your fantasy players. All of the below stats were correct at the point the champions in question won their Masters title:
2016: Danny Willett
How many times in Masters: 1
Masters finish the year before: T38
Best Masters finish: T38
Form heading in: 28-23-3-45
Past three major appearances: 54-6-MC (PGA ’15, The Open ’15, US Open ’15)
2015: Jordan Spieth
How many times in Masters: 1
Masters finish the year before: 2
Best Masters finish: 2
Form heading in: 2-2-1-17
Past three major appearances: MC-36-17 (PGA ’14, Open ’14, US Open ’14)
2014: Bubba Watson
How many times in Masters: 5
Masters finish the year before: 50
Best Masters finish: 1
Form heading in: WD-9-2-1
Past three major appearances: MC-32-32 (PGA ’13, Open ’13, US Open ’13)
2013: Adam Scott
How many times in Masters: 11
Masters finish the year before: 50
Best Masters finish: 2
Form heading in: 33-3-30-10
Past three major appearances: 11-2-15 (PGA ’12, Open ’12, US Open ’12)
There are a few anomalies to consider, but really the clues are here in neon Technicolor. Each of the past four winners of The Masters were in good form heading into their triumphant appearance; which might sound obvious, but each of this quartet had recorded a top-five finish in their four tournaments prior to Augusta. Bubba had won (Northern Trust Open) and finished second (WGC Cadillac), while Spieth has been a winner (Valspar Championship), lost in a play-off (Houston Open) and recorded another podium place at the Texas Open. Form and confidence heading to Augusta is a necessity.
You’ll note that each had played reasonably well in The Masters the year before; a high finish isn’t essential, but the stats would suggest at least making the weekend is: each of the last 10 Masters champions had made the cut the year before they slipped into the Green Jacket. Three of the last four Masters champs had recorded a top-20 in their prior three major appearances as well, and the anomaly – Bubba – can perhaps be forgiven seeing as though he is a multiple-time Augusta victor. And finally, each of the last 10 Masters winners had all played Augusta at least once prior to their triumph. Sorry, Mr Rahm! Other Masters stats that are of interest:
Each of the last 10 winners was aged 40 or under at the time of their win.
Eight of the last 10 were ranked in the world’s top 30 at the time.
Nine of the last 10 winners were non-European; 5x American, 2x South African, 1x Argentinean, 1x Australian.
No world number one (at the time) has won The Masters in the past decade. Can Dustin Johnson break that cycle in 2017? As for what kind of players we should be looking for this week? Driving distance has typically been more important than accuracy: Spieth and Willett ranked just 52nd and 32nd for Driving Accuracy in their winning efforts. A natural accomplice of the above is that a decent week of Scrambling is essential to rescue position, while clearly putting well on these fast and cruelly undulating greens is essential. Finally, here’s how the last 10 champions combined have played the course:
Par 3s: -4
Par 4s: -12
Par 5s: -90
Little else needs to be said about that.
While guys like DJ, McElroy, Spieth, Matsuyama, Day or Fowler can certainly win this event, we’re not interested in short odds because there is no value whatsoever in a guy like Dustin Johnson at 5 or 6-1. For fantasy players, it’s different so at the bottom of this page, we’ll add our “high priced” FANTASY golfer favorite. From a betting standpoint, however, we’re looking for a sweet payout and hopefully one or more of the following will be in contention on Sunday. Enjoy this wonderful event
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Louis Oosthuizen 50-1
The South African has enjoyed himself at Augusta over the years, and it really is a course that suits his game. Not the most accurate off the tee, Oosthuizen comes alive in the final third of a hole and as long as his putter is hot, there is no obvious reason why he can’t go close again. A run of 15-19-25-MC-2 speaks for itself. At 50-1, we are getting a major winner (2010’s Open) who has also finished runner-up in three other ‘biggies’. That experience could prove to be crucial down the back nine on Sunday. Oosthuizen is also in form this season including a third at the Phoenix Open, a T21 at the Honda Classic and T28 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. One thing is for sure, in a nerve-racking finale, Oosthuizen is a man to have onside. (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
L. Oosthuizen -108 over B. Snedeker (risking 1.08 units to win 1)
Kevin Kisner 100-1
Given the fragility he showed with victory at his mercy at the Arnold Palmer Invitational just a couple of weeks ago, we have to be cautious when talking up the chances of Kevin Kisner. But then, to even get into a position of such authority, you have to be playing great golf, right? Kisner led by four strokes at one point during the back nine of his title assault, and his subsequent collapse was something of a concern. However, that decent showing came on the back of almost top-10s at the WGC Mexico (T11), AT&T Pebble Beach (T10), and the Sony Open (T4), so we know that the University of Georgia graduate is playing great golf right now. He made his one-and-only Augusta appearance last year, finishing T37. Where did Danny Willett finish in his sole start here prior to winning the championship? T38. Kisner is worth a bet. (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
K. Kisner -118 over Z. Johnson (risking 1.18 units to win 1)
Hudson Swafford 175-1
The Shell Houston Open is deliberately placed in the PGA TOUR calendar to fall a week prior to The Masters and the reason for that is that the Golf Club of Houston offers plenty of similarities to Augusta. It’s eye-catching then that Swafford fired three rounds in the 60s on his way to a T6 finish, which extends his fine run of form to three top-10s in his last seven starts; including that maiden victory at the CareerBuilder Challenge. Two Georgians have won the Masters – Larry Mize and Bubba Watson – and Swafford, an honorary Georgian after studying there and setting up home in St. Simon’s, will be looking to join the distinguished club. Nice overlay here. (Risking 0.2 units to win 35 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
In the head to head matchups, Swafford is -148 over Sullivan and while it`s tempting, we don’t lay that price in anything, especially at a course like this where things can turn sour so quickly.
Bill Haas 80-1
Haas is as close to a Mr. Dependable as you can get at Augusta: he’s a perfect seven-for-seven here, and at a decent rate of 24-12-20-20-37-42-26 too. He should make the cut and could very well be in contention on Sunday. The form is in place, and a really impressive showing at the WGC Match Play locked Haas in place for us. He’s made eight cuts from as many starts this campaign and only finished outside the top-30 twice. 17 of Haas’ last 25 rounds of golf have been in the 60s so this is a guy currently at the peak of his powers. Haas has some key stats working too, as he’s ranked 4th on TOUR in Shots Gained Around-the-Green, 16th on TOUR in Shots Gained Tee-To-Green and 19th on TOUR in Greens in Regulation. Rarely will you get a pro in this fine form at these long odds. (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
B. Haas -125 over JB Holmes (risking 1.25 units to win 1)
Emiliano Grillo 125-1
The majestically talented Argentine is another who seems to save his best golf for the big tournaments. He delivered three top-20 finishes in four major starts in 2016, including T12 at The Open, T13 at the PGA Championship and T17 at The Masters. The 2017 campaign hasn’t gone that well for Grillo, but timing – being the darling that it is – reveals that he delivered his best finish in his last strokeplay start: T7 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But for a third round of 78, he might well have clinched his second PGA TOUR title. Grillo’s natural game is well suited to Augusta, and the majors seem to bring out the best in a prodigiously talented young man.
(Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
E. Grillo -117 over B. Grace (risking 1.17 units to win 1)
Brooks Koepka 66-1
There was genuine concern for the golf game of Brooks Koepka recently, who seemed to be spending more time snapping clubs than making birdies. But a decent showing at the WGC Match Play, where he beat the likes of Reed, Dufner, and Kisner, suggested the old magic had returned, and for a fine young talent that has developed a taste for the majors (4-DNP-13-21-5-10) that is timely indeed. A lack of any real stroke-play form may just see Koepka slide under the radar this week, especially in FANTASY and so whether you are betting this event or playing DFS, Koepka is someone that shouldn’t be ignored. He ranks 5th on TOUR in Driving Distance, 22nd on TOUR in Shots Gained Putting and 32nd on TOUR in Birdie Average. Those are some impressive numbers that could certainly catapult him into contention on Sunday. (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units)
Head-to-head matchup:
C. Koepka +104 over M. Leishman (risking 1 unit to win 1.04 units)
FOR ALL FANTASY PLAYERS, OUR TOP PICK THIS WEEK HAS TO BE DJ:
While it’s true that no world number one at the time has ever donned the Green Jacket, if anybody can break that voodoo its DJ, whose form in PGA TOUR events in recent weeks reads a ridiculous 1-1-1-3-MC-6-3, which is basically binary code rather than a formline of a professional golfer. When making our draft, we ask ourselves who is likely to pick up the most points this week? Johnson, who ranks first on tour for Strokes Gained: Total, SG: Tee-to-Green and Greens in Regulation, is surely that man. The improvement in his wedge and short iron game speaks for itself in his results. Is DJ well suited to Augusta? You bet: 4-6-MC-13 is as competitive a formline as you will read here, and don’t forget that he was still yet to get the major monkey off his back until the US Open last year, and so now he can play The Masters with less pressure on his shoulders. Dude is in a Jack Nicklaus/Tiger Woods-like zone right now and it’s for that reason, we simply have to draft him if we’re going to play DFS.
