Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: 8* Play on: Atlanta Hawks (+) over Minnesota T'Wolves
Today I step out with a large wager on the Atlanta Hawks (+) over the Minnesota Timberwolves. This really is the perfect spot for a bet ON Atlanta and AGAINST Minnesota and I’ll take advantage of a generous number by the oddsmakers. Atlanta comes into this game fully rested as they’ve been off since last Saturday which has given them valuable practice time the past three days. Minnesota meanwhile is coming off a game last night at Indiana and this will be their 3rd game in a four night span, 4th in six nights and 5th game in eight nights. Not to mention last night they expended a ton of energy in a dramatic come from behind win over the Pacers. Fatigue was certainly a factor last night as evidenced by the T’Wolves 21 turnovers which is a sure sign of mental weakness. On the season the Wolves are just 7-15-1 ATS at home and in their last 18 home games they are 6-12 SU but only ONE of those wins came against a team with a winning record which was New Orleans who had injuries at the time. Overall the T’Wolves are 2-11 ATS at home against teams with a better than .500 record.
Now some of you are questioning how we could take the Hawks tonight without their All-Star guard Joe Johnson but that will be a POSITIVE in our favor. You see, Johnson really hasn’t been playing that well lately and typically when a big name starter misses a game the bench players elevate their play the first game out when getting more minutes. Johnson is having a poor season shooting the ball as his season average of 42.7% FG percent is the lowest of his career. In his last seven games he’s really struggled with his ‘stroke’ as he was just 44 of 119 or 37%. Replacing Johnson in the starting lineup will be Mo Evans but he’s not the guy that will pick up JJ’s scoring load. That will fall on the shoulders of Ronald Murray and we’re quite confident he’ll rise to the occasion and here’s why. Murray doesn’t get nearly as many minutes as Johnson gets but take a look at what he’s done his last seven games. Murray is 49 of 105 from the field for 47%, averaging over 18 ppg. So no, the Hawks won’t struggle to score points without Johnson on the floor tonight AND they are getting their starting center Al Horford back tonight who will be fresh and able to contain Al Jefferson in the post. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season but with the Wolves in a tough scheduling spot we like the Hawks to win this game by double digits. Play Atlanta!