Teddy Davis
Feb 22 '17, 8:30 PM
NCAA-B | Minnesota vs Maryland
Play on: Minnesota +4½ -109 at 5Dimes
We already know that the betting public will be all over Maryland here. Maryland did win the first meeting between the two, but they shot nearly 60% from three! They are now getting a Gopher team who is red hot and playing with a ton of confidence as they have won 5 straight. Minnesota wants revenge in the worst way, plus a win here would really go a long way toward the tournament.
Feb 22 '17, 8:30 PM
NCAA-B | Minnesota vs Maryland
Play on: Minnesota +4½ -109 at 5Dimes
We already know that the betting public will be all over Maryland here. Maryland did win the first meeting between the two, but they shot nearly 60% from three! They are now getting a Gopher team who is red hot and playing with a ton of confidence as they have won 5 straight. Minnesota wants revenge in the worst way, plus a win here would really go a long way toward the tournament.
Larry Ness
Oregon St. vs. Stanford
Pick: Stanford
Stanford fired Johnny Dawkins (Mr, NIT) after the Cardinal finished 15-15 last year (Dawkins' eighth). There was only one NCAA appearance in that run and while Stanford captured two NIT titles in his tenure at Palo Alto, enough was enough. However, Jerrod Haase's first season with Stanford has hardly been anything special, as the Cardinal check in at 13-13 overall, including 5-9 on Pac 12 play.
Oregon State visits Maples Pavilion tonight, 5-23 overall, including 1-14 in Pac 12 games. The Beavers' season ended for all practical purposes when 6-8 forward Tres Tinkle (20.2-8.3), the coach's son, broke his wrist after six games. Guards Thompson (16.8 & 4.4) and McLaughlin (11.1-3.1 APG) plus the 6-10 Eubanks (14.7 & 8.) are quality players but the Beavers just don't have enough talent. Oregon State opened the season by going 4-9 in non-conference play but lost its first 14 Pac 12 games, before breaking through this past Sunday. The Beavers rallied from a 13-point second-half deficit to record their first league victory, 68-67 over Utah. Stephen Thompson Jr. set career highs with five three-pointers and 31 points "Our guys deserve to taste some success. Not one of them has gone south on us. They bring it every day,” Oregon St head coach Wayne Tinkle told reporters
Speaking of "big wins," the Cardinal took down hated rival Cal in their last game, 73-68 this past Friday (only game that week). The 6-8 Reid (17.3 & 8.6) had 19 points and nine rebounds against Cal plus helped foul out both of the Bears’ centers, Guard Marcus Allen continued his late-season surge with 11 points but Pickens had a team-high 23 points. The 6-9 Humphrey (9.4-6.4) joins Reid up front with the team's best perimeter players being Pickens (12.5), Allen (7.2), Cartwright (7.1-3.5 APG) and Sheffield (7.0),.
Reid missed the first meeting between these two schools, a 62-46 Stanford win in Corvallis back on Jan 19, but Humphrey scored a game-high 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting in last month’s win over the Beavers. Stanford fired Dawkins because it wanted NCAA not NIT appearances but an NIT appearance in Haase's first season might be a welcome sight, after all. Stanford is 20-2 at Maples Pavilion against Oregon State since 1993 and the Beavers are 0-11 SU on the road this year, getting outscored 80.8-to-63.0 PPG in lined games.
Oregon St. vs. Stanford
Pick: Stanford
Stanford fired Johnny Dawkins (Mr, NIT) after the Cardinal finished 15-15 last year (Dawkins' eighth). There was only one NCAA appearance in that run and while Stanford captured two NIT titles in his tenure at Palo Alto, enough was enough. However, Jerrod Haase's first season with Stanford has hardly been anything special, as the Cardinal check in at 13-13 overall, including 5-9 on Pac 12 play.
Oregon State visits Maples Pavilion tonight, 5-23 overall, including 1-14 in Pac 12 games. The Beavers' season ended for all practical purposes when 6-8 forward Tres Tinkle (20.2-8.3), the coach's son, broke his wrist after six games. Guards Thompson (16.8 & 4.4) and McLaughlin (11.1-3.1 APG) plus the 6-10 Eubanks (14.7 & 8.) are quality players but the Beavers just don't have enough talent. Oregon State opened the season by going 4-9 in non-conference play but lost its first 14 Pac 12 games, before breaking through this past Sunday. The Beavers rallied from a 13-point second-half deficit to record their first league victory, 68-67 over Utah. Stephen Thompson Jr. set career highs with five three-pointers and 31 points "Our guys deserve to taste some success. Not one of them has gone south on us. They bring it every day,” Oregon St head coach Wayne Tinkle told reporters
Speaking of "big wins," the Cardinal took down hated rival Cal in their last game, 73-68 this past Friday (only game that week). The 6-8 Reid (17.3 & 8.6) had 19 points and nine rebounds against Cal plus helped foul out both of the Bears’ centers, Guard Marcus Allen continued his late-season surge with 11 points but Pickens had a team-high 23 points. The 6-9 Humphrey (9.4-6.4) joins Reid up front with the team's best perimeter players being Pickens (12.5), Allen (7.2), Cartwright (7.1-3.5 APG) and Sheffield (7.0),.
Reid missed the first meeting between these two schools, a 62-46 Stanford win in Corvallis back on Jan 19, but Humphrey scored a game-high 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting in last month’s win over the Beavers. Stanford fired Dawkins because it wanted NCAA not NIT appearances but an NIT appearance in Haase's first season might be a welcome sight, after all. Stanford is 20-2 at Maples Pavilion against Oregon State since 1993 and the Beavers are 0-11 SU on the road this year, getting outscored 80.8-to-63.0 PPG in lined games.
Wunderdog
Fordham @ Duquesne
Pick: Over 136
Duquesne has gone OVER four games in a row after its 77-70 loss to George Washington on Sunday when Mike Lewis II led the Dukes with 22 points. Duquesne has allowed an average of 82 points over its last six games with five of them going OVER. The Dukes won the first meeting 75-72 on Dec. 30 and the game went OVER by 13.5 points even though both teams shot under 40 percent. Emile Blackman scored 17 points for the Dukes and JaVontae Hawkins scored 18 points for the Rams. Duquesne has gone OVER six of its last eight home games and eight of the last 10 meetings have gone OVER. The linesmakers have posted a low total but Duquesne allows 75.1 points per game while scoring 71.6. Also, Fordham gives up an average of 71.3 points on the road.
Fordham @ Duquesne
Pick: Over 136
Duquesne has gone OVER four games in a row after its 77-70 loss to George Washington on Sunday when Mike Lewis II led the Dukes with 22 points. Duquesne has allowed an average of 82 points over its last six games with five of them going OVER. The Dukes won the first meeting 75-72 on Dec. 30 and the game went OVER by 13.5 points even though both teams shot under 40 percent. Emile Blackman scored 17 points for the Dukes and JaVontae Hawkins scored 18 points for the Rams. Duquesne has gone OVER six of its last eight home games and eight of the last 10 meetings have gone OVER. The linesmakers have posted a low total but Duquesne allows 75.1 points per game while scoring 71.6. Also, Fordham gives up an average of 71.3 points on the road.
Jesse Schule
Boise State vs. Nevada
Play: Nevada -4½
The Nevada Wolfpack host the Boise State Broncos in a battle for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. Both teams are tied with a 10-4 record within the conference, and the winner will move into a first place tie with Colorado State. Nevada was the favorite coming into this season, and they've failed to disappoint at home. They are 11-1 on their home floor, averaging 81.7 points per game on 47.3 percent shooting in those contests. They've led by double digits at halftime in each of their last two home games, and I think they'll get off to a good start here against Boise State. The Broncos lost their last road game at New Mexico, and they trailed the Lobos by double digits at the half in that game. The Wolfpack have been a cash cow at home over the last few seasons, going a stellar 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
Boise State vs. Nevada
Play: Nevada -4½
The Nevada Wolfpack host the Boise State Broncos in a battle for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. Both teams are tied with a 10-4 record within the conference, and the winner will move into a first place tie with Colorado State. Nevada was the favorite coming into this season, and they've failed to disappoint at home. They are 11-1 on their home floor, averaging 81.7 points per game on 47.3 percent shooting in those contests. They've led by double digits at halftime in each of their last two home games, and I think they'll get off to a good start here against Boise State. The Broncos lost their last road game at New Mexico, and they trailed the Lobos by double digits at the half in that game. The Wolfpack have been a cash cow at home over the last few seasons, going a stellar 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
Chip Chirimbes
Oregon vs. California
Play: California +4.5
No. 6 Oregon has been a buzz-saw just cutting up Pac-12 opponents winning their last three and eight of their last 10 both straight-up and ATS. The Ducks are now just one-game behind Arizona. California won seven of eight before dropping their last two and were dismantled by the Ducks 86-63 in Eugene last month and are looking to repeat last year's 83-63 home win over the Ducks. Even though Oregon is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall they are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Revenge is sweet.
Oregon vs. California
Play: California +4.5
No. 6 Oregon has been a buzz-saw just cutting up Pac-12 opponents winning their last three and eight of their last 10 both straight-up and ATS. The Ducks are now just one-game behind Arizona. California won seven of eight before dropping their last two and were dismantled by the Ducks 86-63 in Eugene last month and are looking to repeat last year's 83-63 home win over the Ducks. Even though Oregon is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall they are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Revenge is sweet.
Oskeim Sports
Utah State at San Jose State
Play: San Jose State -1
San Jose State head coach Dave Wojcik has done a tremendous job this season as the Spartans have their most conference wins (7) since 1995-96. Looking to end an 18-game losing streak to Utah State, the Spartans hope to secure their fifteen win of the season in this Mountain West Conference affair.
San Jose State has shown incredible poise this season, posting four wins in games in which it trailed by double-digits. The most recent come-from-behind win occurred on Saturday against Air Force wherein the Spartans erased a 13-point deficit to ultimately prevail 83-78 in overtime. The Spartans trailed 41-28 at halftime and 64-54 with 7:13 left in the second half before fueling their comeback.
The Spartans are 9-5 SU at home this season where they are averaging 77.6 points per game and converting 72.8% of their free throws. The Spartans have also won and covered five of their last six games over which time they are averaging 74.4 points per game and making 74.3% of their foul shots.
Overall, San Jose State is mediocre offensively (74.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 74.0 points per game), but that is good enough to have success against a pedestrian Utah State stop unit that is allowing 75.9 points per game on the road. The Aggies are allowing opponents to make 38.0% of their three-pointers on the road, including 40.3% from beyond the arc over their last five games.
Those defensive numbers are appealing for San Jose State investors in light of the fact that the Spartans are shooting 48.7% from the field over their last five games and are converting 35.6% of their tree-point attempts at home.
I also like the fact that San Jose State is limiting its opponents to just 33 rebounds per game at home (7 offensive boards), while the Aggies are averaging a woeful 32 rebounds per game on the road (7 offensive boards).
Utah State is 2-10 SU and 2-9 ATS on the road this season where its averaging just 66.2 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field. Over its last five contests, the Aggies are averaging 66.2 points on 40.5% shooting from the floor. One also has to question how much gas Utah State has left in the tank after losing four of its last five games, including back-to-back defeats against San Diego State and Nevada.
From a technical standpoint, Utah State is a money-burning 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games overall, 3-10 ATS in its last thirteen games following a loss, 3-10-1 ATS in its last fourteen games as an underdog and 1-7 ATS in its last eight road affairs. With San Jose State standing at 5-1 ATS in its last six Mountain West Conference games, take the Spartans and invest with confidence.
Utah State at San Jose State
Play: San Jose State -1
San Jose State head coach Dave Wojcik has done a tremendous job this season as the Spartans have their most conference wins (7) since 1995-96. Looking to end an 18-game losing streak to Utah State, the Spartans hope to secure their fifteen win of the season in this Mountain West Conference affair.
San Jose State has shown incredible poise this season, posting four wins in games in which it trailed by double-digits. The most recent come-from-behind win occurred on Saturday against Air Force wherein the Spartans erased a 13-point deficit to ultimately prevail 83-78 in overtime. The Spartans trailed 41-28 at halftime and 64-54 with 7:13 left in the second half before fueling their comeback.
The Spartans are 9-5 SU at home this season where they are averaging 77.6 points per game and converting 72.8% of their free throws. The Spartans have also won and covered five of their last six games over which time they are averaging 74.4 points per game and making 74.3% of their foul shots.
Overall, San Jose State is mediocre offensively (74.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 74.0 points per game), but that is good enough to have success against a pedestrian Utah State stop unit that is allowing 75.9 points per game on the road. The Aggies are allowing opponents to make 38.0% of their three-pointers on the road, including 40.3% from beyond the arc over their last five games.
Those defensive numbers are appealing for San Jose State investors in light of the fact that the Spartans are shooting 48.7% from the field over their last five games and are converting 35.6% of their tree-point attempts at home.
I also like the fact that San Jose State is limiting its opponents to just 33 rebounds per game at home (7 offensive boards), while the Aggies are averaging a woeful 32 rebounds per game on the road (7 offensive boards).
Utah State is 2-10 SU and 2-9 ATS on the road this season where its averaging just 66.2 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field. Over its last five contests, the Aggies are averaging 66.2 points on 40.5% shooting from the floor. One also has to question how much gas Utah State has left in the tank after losing four of its last five games, including back-to-back defeats against San Diego State and Nevada.
From a technical standpoint, Utah State is a money-burning 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games overall, 3-10 ATS in its last thirteen games following a loss, 3-10-1 ATS in its last fourteen games as an underdog and 1-7 ATS in its last eight road affairs. With San Jose State standing at 5-1 ATS in its last six Mountain West Conference games, take the Spartans and invest with confidence.
Andrew Lange
Texas A&M at Arkansas
Play: : Over 144.5
In the first meeting between Arkansas and Texas A&M in College Station, the Aggies were able to control tempo (64 possessions) but still lost 62-60. The venue switches to Bud Walton Arena where the Razorbacks tend to control pace and score at a higher clip. A&M coach Billy Kennedy on tonight's game: "We’re going to need to score,” he said. "You get opportunities to score in transition against them. We need to make good decisions and put the ball in the hole. You’ve got to take good shots against them. If the game is in the 80s or 90s we’re in trouble.” They'll have their chances tonight as Arkansas ranks last in the SEC in strength of schedule according to Ken Pom and yet still own the league’s third-worst defensive efficiency. A&M hasn't been shy about putting up points on some of the SEC's "all offense, no defense" teams. Against LSU, the Aggies hung 92 and 85. Against Ole Miss they hit for 80. And last time out against Auburn, they notched 81. Also note that the first meeting had 102 points with just under 10 minutes to play and both teams went ice cold. Market with the assist here as the opener was bet down from 147 to a very playable 144.5.
Texas A&M at Arkansas
Play: : Over 144.5
In the first meeting between Arkansas and Texas A&M in College Station, the Aggies were able to control tempo (64 possessions) but still lost 62-60. The venue switches to Bud Walton Arena where the Razorbacks tend to control pace and score at a higher clip. A&M coach Billy Kennedy on tonight's game: "We’re going to need to score,” he said. "You get opportunities to score in transition against them. We need to make good decisions and put the ball in the hole. You’ve got to take good shots against them. If the game is in the 80s or 90s we’re in trouble.” They'll have their chances tonight as Arkansas ranks last in the SEC in strength of schedule according to Ken Pom and yet still own the league’s third-worst defensive efficiency. A&M hasn't been shy about putting up points on some of the SEC's "all offense, no defense" teams. Against LSU, the Aggies hung 92 and 85. Against Ole Miss they hit for 80. And last time out against Auburn, they notched 81. Also note that the first meeting had 102 points with just under 10 minutes to play and both teams went ice cold. Market with the assist here as the opener was bet down from 147 to a very playable 144.5.
Executive Sports
Minnesota at Maryland
Play: Minnesota +4.5
The Golden Gophers protect the rock very well. They are averaging only 10.5 turnovers per game the past 8 games. And, they have 40 or more rebounds in each game over the past 6. They have won 5 in a row, and now take on the challenge of going on the road to upset #24 ranked Maryland. The Terps only have 5 losses on the season, but 3 of those have come recently in just the past 5 games.
Minnesota at Maryland
Play: Minnesota +4.5
The Golden Gophers protect the rock very well. They are averaging only 10.5 turnovers per game the past 8 games. And, they have 40 or more rebounds in each game over the past 6. They have won 5 in a row, and now take on the challenge of going on the road to upset #24 ranked Maryland. The Terps only have 5 losses on the season, but 3 of those have come recently in just the past 5 games.
Zack Cimini
Duke vs. Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse
If Syracuse wants to make their tournament chances more probable tonight is a golden opportunity against Duke. Duke's won seven straight but all have been by ten points or less. All season Syracuse's strength offensively has been when they can get feature points in the interior with freshman Taurean Thompson, Tyler Lydon, and Tyler Roberson. Look for the Orange to attack a sore spot of the Blue Devils in the interior, which features a key senior to senior matchup in Tyler Roberson and Amile Jefferson. An area Roberson has dominated as he has averaged sixteen points and thirteen rebounds in the last three match ups against Duke.
Duke vs. Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse
If Syracuse wants to make their tournament chances more probable tonight is a golden opportunity against Duke. Duke's won seven straight but all have been by ten points or less. All season Syracuse's strength offensively has been when they can get feature points in the interior with freshman Taurean Thompson, Tyler Lydon, and Tyler Roberson. Look for the Orange to attack a sore spot of the Blue Devils in the interior, which features a key senior to senior matchup in Tyler Roberson and Amile Jefferson. An area Roberson has dominated as he has averaged sixteen points and thirteen rebounds in the last three match ups against Duke.
David Banks
Butler vs. Villanova
Pick: Villanova -10
The nation’s No. 2 team, Villanova, has an impressive 26-2 overall record. One of those two losses was to Butler, the team the Wildcats will face on Wednesday night at home in The Pavilion. Villanova, 13-2 in Big East play, has not lost since a 74-72 upset defeat at the hands of Marquette. The Wildcats have won seven in a row since thanks in large part to the nation’s 18th-best scoring defense. Villanova allows opponents just 63 points per game.
On Jan. 4, Butler (20-6, 9-5) defeated Villanova 66-58 to end the Wildcats 20-game winning streak. The Bulldogs outshot (45% to 37%) and outrebounded (33 to 24) Villanova to gain the victory. They will need to repeat that performance and get great play from their experienced stars. The Bulldogs are led by 6-7 junior Kelan Martin who averages 15.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Andrew Chrabascz is a 6-7 senior who has been around for what seems like forever. Chrabascz adds 11.6 points and 4.6 rebounds a game. Butler has won its last two after struggling for a stretch where they lost three of four games.
Villanova has possibly the nation’s best starting five led by the talented Josh Hart who shoots 51 percent from the floor and scores 18.8 points per game. Jalen Brunson adds 14.6 points a game and last year’s national championship game hero, Kris Jenkins, scores 13.3 per game. After facing Butler on Wednesday night, the Wildcats will face No. 20 Creighton at home on Saturday afternoon.
Butler vs. Villanova
Pick: Villanova -10
The nation’s No. 2 team, Villanova, has an impressive 26-2 overall record. One of those two losses was to Butler, the team the Wildcats will face on Wednesday night at home in The Pavilion. Villanova, 13-2 in Big East play, has not lost since a 74-72 upset defeat at the hands of Marquette. The Wildcats have won seven in a row since thanks in large part to the nation’s 18th-best scoring defense. Villanova allows opponents just 63 points per game.
On Jan. 4, Butler (20-6, 9-5) defeated Villanova 66-58 to end the Wildcats 20-game winning streak. The Bulldogs outshot (45% to 37%) and outrebounded (33 to 24) Villanova to gain the victory. They will need to repeat that performance and get great play from their experienced stars. The Bulldogs are led by 6-7 junior Kelan Martin who averages 15.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Andrew Chrabascz is a 6-7 senior who has been around for what seems like forever. Chrabascz adds 11.6 points and 4.6 rebounds a game. Butler has won its last two after struggling for a stretch where they lost three of four games.
Villanova has possibly the nation’s best starting five led by the talented Josh Hart who shoots 51 percent from the floor and scores 18.8 points per game. Jalen Brunson adds 14.6 points a game and last year’s national championship game hero, Kris Jenkins, scores 13.3 per game. After facing Butler on Wednesday night, the Wildcats will face No. 20 Creighton at home on Saturday afternoon.
Black Widow
DePaul vs. Georgetown
Play: DePaul +13
Bets on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off six or more consecutive losses in Wednesday games are 44-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This situation's record is 6-2 this season alone. The Blue Demons have actually lost 10 straight now, but are 4-2 ATS in their last six games. Oddsmakers are overadjusting for this losing streak knowing that the betting public wants nothing to do with them. I think this is a flat spot for Georgetown off its 17-point loss at Creighton. The Hoyas now have virtually no chance of making the NCAA Tournament unless they win the Big East Tournament. They will just play out the string at this point.
DePaul vs. Georgetown
Play: DePaul +13
Bets on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off six or more consecutive losses in Wednesday games are 44-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This situation's record is 6-2 this season alone. The Blue Demons have actually lost 10 straight now, but are 4-2 ATS in their last six games. Oddsmakers are overadjusting for this losing streak knowing that the betting public wants nothing to do with them. I think this is a flat spot for Georgetown off its 17-point loss at Creighton. The Hoyas now have virtually no chance of making the NCAA Tournament unless they win the Big East Tournament. They will just play out the string at this point.
Jack Jones
Providence vs. Creighton
Play: Providence +7
The Providence Friars need to keep winning if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They are doing a good job of it with back-to-back victories over Butler and Xavier at home. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall as they've clearly been an undervalued commodity.
Now Providence will be out for revenge from a 64-78 home loss to Creighton in their first meeting back on January 7th. The difference is that the Bluejays had star PG Mo Watson Jr healthy for that game, but now he's out for the season.
We've seen Creighton lose at home to both Marquette and Xavier without Watson Jr. I wouldn't be surprised if they get upset here, too. Creighton is at a big disadvantage in rest after playing on Sunday, while Providence has had a full week to prepare having played last Wednesday.
Providence is 11-3 ATS as an underdog this season. The Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Providence is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog. The Friars are 8-1 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Providence vs. Creighton
Play: Providence +7
The Providence Friars need to keep winning if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. They are doing a good job of it with back-to-back victories over Butler and Xavier at home. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall as they've clearly been an undervalued commodity.
Now Providence will be out for revenge from a 64-78 home loss to Creighton in their first meeting back on January 7th. The difference is that the Bluejays had star PG Mo Watson Jr healthy for that game, but now he's out for the season.
We've seen Creighton lose at home to both Marquette and Xavier without Watson Jr. I wouldn't be surprised if they get upset here, too. Creighton is at a big disadvantage in rest after playing on Sunday, while Providence has had a full week to prepare having played last Wednesday.
Providence is 11-3 ATS as an underdog this season. The Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Providence is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog. The Friars are 8-1 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.
Dave Price
Louisville vs. North Carolina
Play: Louisville +8
The Key: This is a big number for a team that caliber of Louisville to be catching tonight at North Carolina. The Cardinals are 22-5 SU on the season, but the evidence of them being undervalued is in the fact that they are 17-8 ATS in lined games. UNC is being overvalued here off its 65-41 blowout win over Virginia, but that was a Cavaliers team that is really struggling right now. Louisville will fight you tooth and nail for 40 minutes and won't be a pushover here. The Cardinals are 11-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season. UNC is 6-15 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who score 84 or more points per game this season.
Louisville vs. North Carolina
Play: Louisville +8
The Key: This is a big number for a team that caliber of Louisville to be catching tonight at North Carolina. The Cardinals are 22-5 SU on the season, but the evidence of them being undervalued is in the fact that they are 17-8 ATS in lined games. UNC is being overvalued here off its 65-41 blowout win over Virginia, but that was a Cavaliers team that is really struggling right now. Louisville will fight you tooth and nail for 40 minutes and won't be a pushover here. The Cardinals are 11-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season. UNC is 6-15 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who score 84 or more points per game this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Oregon vs. California
Play: Oregon -3
I really like the value here with the Ducks as a short road favorite against the Golden Bears. No disrespect to Cal, who is 18-8 overall, 9-5 in the Pac-12 and 14-2 at home, but they are outclassed against an elite Oregon team. Note that the Ducks already smoked Cal 86-63 at home earlier this season. I just don't believe that a change in venue is going to be enough to propel the Golden Bears to an outright win, which is basically what it would take with this short line. Keep in mind that Cal's two home losses were both against elite teams in Virginia and Arizona. Oregon is every bit as good as both of those teams, if not better.
The Ducks enter off a 101-73 win at home against Colorado and in doing so shot 16-29 (55.2%) from behind the 3-point line. Oregon is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 off a conference home win, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a conference win by 20 or more points, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 75 or more points in 4 straight games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they shot 50% or better from behind the 3-point line.
Oregon vs. California
Play: Oregon -3
I really like the value here with the Ducks as a short road favorite against the Golden Bears. No disrespect to Cal, who is 18-8 overall, 9-5 in the Pac-12 and 14-2 at home, but they are outclassed against an elite Oregon team. Note that the Ducks already smoked Cal 86-63 at home earlier this season. I just don't believe that a change in venue is going to be enough to propel the Golden Bears to an outright win, which is basically what it would take with this short line. Keep in mind that Cal's two home losses were both against elite teams in Virginia and Arizona. Oregon is every bit as good as both of those teams, if not better.
The Ducks enter off a 101-73 win at home against Colorado and in doing so shot 16-29 (55.2%) from behind the 3-point line. Oregon is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 off a conference home win, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a conference win by 20 or more points, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 75 or more points in 4 straight games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they shot 50% or better from behind the 3-point line.
John Martin
Oregon vs. California
Play: California +4
The Oregon Ducks have only had seven true road games this season, going just 4-3 in them. Now they head to Cal, where the Golden Bears are 14-2 at home this season, only losing to Virginia by four and Arizona by five. I like this Cal team that ranks 1st in the Pac-12 in both scoring defense and field-goal percentage defense. The Bears are also second in the conference in rebounding margin at plus-7.3. They beat Oregon 83-63 at home last season and are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Ducks.
Oregon vs. California
Play: California +4
The Oregon Ducks have only had seven true road games this season, going just 4-3 in them. Now they head to Cal, where the Golden Bears are 14-2 at home this season, only losing to Virginia by four and Arizona by five. I like this Cal team that ranks 1st in the Pac-12 in both scoring defense and field-goal percentage defense. The Bears are also second in the conference in rebounding margin at plus-7.3. They beat Oregon 83-63 at home last season and are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Ducks.
