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Essentials: NBA back with a bang
By Tony Mejia

A number of NBA teams probably would’ve preferred to keep right on playing through the All-Star break. LeBron James got to co-host a fashion show and hang with budding star Amy Schumer, whose upcoming comedy he’s got a cameo in. Still, riding out the surge his Cavs were on may have had its benefits. One could argue last Thursday’s loss to the Bulls could be hung on Cleveland looking ahead to the weekend. Before then, the Cavs had won 14 of 15 games. Ironically, James was consulted by Commissioner Adam Silver when this change was being considered.
“I had a say and I thought it would do everybody in our league good,” James said. “It wasn’t just for me or for the players or the All-Stars. It was for everyone and the commish definitely was all for it. I think it’s going to help everyone.”

In theory, it should, giving players an opportunity to get extended rest. Most teams aren’t practicing until Wednesday. Decompression may be good for the mind and will certainly do a few ailing bodies a solid, but there figure to be some disadvantages. Inevitably, it will become a disaster for whatever teams lose focus or can’t get back in a rhythm.

Chicago actually exits the break with the NBA’s longest winning streak, owning wins in four straight. Toronto and Milwaukee have won eight of 10. Memphis is the only team in the Western Conference that has run that hot of late, so it will be interesting to see whether they can hold off the Rockets, Mavericks and Spurs to secure the league’s toughest division. They’re the final team to get back in the swing of things, off until taking the court at Portland on Sunday night. Here’s what to be on the lookout for as teams reconvene with anywhere from 26 to 31 regular-season games remaining:

First out of hiding

Action returns on Thursday with a TNT Western Conference doubleheader consisting of Mavericks-Thunder and Spurs-Clippers. OKC is just a half game behind Phoenix in the race for the eighth seed, while Dallas, San Antonio and the L.A. Clippers each have 19 losses, currently taking up seeds 5-to-7.

The Mavericks are expected to have Amar’e Stoudemire in uniform when they tip off with the Thunder, having locked up his commitment upon clearing waivers on Wednesday. The Spurs and Clippers were among the teams interested in his services after news he’d reached a buyout with New York leaked out. Stoudemire has experience working with Tyson Chandler, albeit not successfully since it came with the Knicks, but he should immediately become Dallas’ first big off the bench.

Beyond seeing how he fits in, other variables the Mavericks will be dealing with include the health of Monta Ellis (hip), Rajon Rondo (facial fracture) and Chandler (ankle). All of them were hurting entering the break, so it will be interesting to see whether any or all will return, not to mention how quickly they can get back in a rhythm. Following the visit to OKC, Dallas hosts Houston, Charlotte and Toronto before going back on the road to face Atlanta on Feb. 25, a stretch of five challenging games in seven days.

Conversely, the Mavs are the only team with a winning record the Thunder will see until a challenging road back-to-back at Phoenix and Portland at the end of the month. Expect Oklahoma City to be favored in its next four games, giving it an opportunity to claim a firmer grip on No. 8.

The Clippers returned to Staples Center just before the All-Star break after their eight-game Grammy road trip that saw them lose five of eight games, not to mention Blake Griffin (staph infection). Though it beat the Rockets handily without him, we’ll see just how much L.A. will miss him immediately since it hosts San Antonio, Sacramento and Memphis out of the gate.

The Spurs, embarked on their nine-game Rodeo road trip, will be playing Game 4 of the lengthy stretch and faces Golden State on Friday. Given all the veterans involved, not to mention coaches Gregg Popovich and Doc Rivers, expect playoff-like intensity as both teams are likely to have their sense of urgency ratcheted up.

Pelicans play waiting game

Anthony Davis had to miss the All-Star game with a shoulder strain, while sixth man Ryan Anderson has been nursing a right elbow sprain and Jrue Holiday has been out with a leg injury. The break should do New Orleans wonders as a result, but it’s still unclear exactly who will be ready to return when it tries to snap a three-game losing streak at Orlando on Friday.

Tyreke Evans has been incredibly productive handling point guard duties and Dante Cunningham has settled in nicely as the starting small forward, so head coach Monty Williams has some decisions to make on the two-game run through Florida that continues in Miami on Saturday night. The Pelicans had lost four of five SU and ATS, while seeing six of seven games go over the posted total, but neither trend can be trusted until we see who the team has back and how they’re going to be utilized going forward.

Sun setting on Dragic’s time in Phoenix?

Even though the Suns are invested in making the playoffs after falling just short last season, a decision must be made regarding the future of guard Goran Dragic. Phoenix’s second-leading scorer isn’t going to exercise his player option this summer, which means he’s certain to be an unrestricted free agent unless an extension can be agreed upon.

As a result, the reigning Most Improved player is the biggest name on any most-likely-to-be-dealt list put out between now and Thursday’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline. Even though the team is committed to a run at the postseason, it wouldn’t be good business to risk him leaving in a few months without getting anything return. GM Ryan McDonough has done a nice job acquiring young talent and definitely has offers to weigh if an extension with Dragic can’t be reached, so there’s a very good chance the Slovenian point guard could be wearing another uniform when Phoenix takes the court in Minnesota on Feb. 20.

Other players virtually certain to be moved between now and the deadline include New York’s Jose Calderon, Boston’s Brandon Bass and Denver wings Arron Afflalo and Wilson Chandler. Brooklyn’s Brook Lopez and Oklahoma City’s Reggie Jackson are also available, but there isn’t as great a sense of urgency to move them as there is with the other players mentioned.

Friday night fights

The league’s schedule makers certainly got it right when it came to setting up appealing matchups for the first full evening of action. Division leaders meet in Atlanta when the Raptors challenge the Hawks, looking to beat the team with the Eastern Conference’s top record three out of four times. Although Toronto lost the most recent meeting at home by a humbling 110-89 margin on Jan. 16, it won the first two games rather handily. The 126 points scored the Raps scored in Philips Arena on Nov. 26 remains the highest output Atlanta has allowed this season.

Cleveland visits Washington in the opening game of ESPN’s doubleheader coverage. Not only is it a duel between All-Star point guards Kyrie Irving and John Wall, it’s also another opportunity for Paul Pierce to try and get under James’ skin, something he’s done quite capably over the years. The teams have split their two meetings thus far and square off at the Q in a potentially vital regular-season finale on April 15.

Houston visits Dallas to continue perhaps the league’s most underrated rivalry. Owner Mark Cuban has made no secret of his disdain for his in-state and division foe, not only stealing Chandler Parsons out from under them but also calling out GM Daryl Morey to spice things up. He’s undoubtedly relishing the fact that the Rockets comes in Dwight Howard-less, especially since his team has lost the last two meetings on the road. The Mavs also host the final regular-season showdown between the Southwest Division contenders on April 2.

The ESPN nightcap yields San Antonio at Golden State. Hopefully Popovich doesn’t feel the need to rest players given the extended break, but this is the second of a back-to-back for the Spurs, so you never know.
 
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Six angles every NBA bettor should follow after the All-Star break
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Fans of the NBA will enjoy approximately 30 games worth of wagering opportunities per team once the Association returns from its annual All-Star festivities on Thursday, February 19.

Here are six storylines bettors should consider as we get set to enter the home stretch of the 2014-2015 regular season.

Will the bubble burst?

The Golden State Warriors owned a Western Conference-best 42-9 record as well as a profitable 31-19-1 mark against the spread. It’s been all sunshine and rainbows in the Bay Area as MVP frontrunner Steph Curry and dynamic two-way sidekick Klay Thompson have scorched the opposition for a combined average of almost 50 points per game.

But here’s the thing: Just like we witness every so often in regards to the stock market, at some point the bubble is going to burst. The average Golden State point spread has risen in every month this season, so the time is nearing when this franchise will be overvalued to the point where bettors should be able to turn a profit fading the Dubs. Check out this month-to-month breakdown of the 2014-2015 season:

October: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, average point spread of -4.5
November: 13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS, average point spread of -7.2
December: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS, average point spread of -7.82
January: 12-3 SU, 10-4-1 ATS, average point spread of -9.4
February: 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, average point spread of -10.1

The return of Rondo

After swinging a blockbuster December deal with the Boston Celtics to acquire All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo, the Dallas Mavericks looked prime to assume a position as one of the preeminent teams in the Western Conference. But that dream lasted barely a month before Rondo was knocked out of action with a facial injury.

Rondo’s impact on the Dallas lineup was more than noticeable, as the Mavericks went 11-5 (.687) through 16 games with the former Celtic on the floor as opposed to 25-14 (.641) without him. But the big difference came in Rondo’s ability to upgrade the Dallas defense.

With Rondo: 99.12 pts per game allowed, 203.3 total pts per game scored
Without Rondo: 102.26 pts per game allowed, 210.02 total pts per game scored

Mavericks games are averaging an additional 6.72 points per game scored without Rondo in the lineup, which means that bettors should keep a close eye on Dallas Unders once the nine-year veteran returns to action.

Clicking in Cleveland

Predictably, except for those in the media who assume team chemistry is something that should brew quicker than a cup of instant coffee, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have hit their championship stride. After opening the season an underwhelming 19-20 straight-up and pathetic 13-26 against the spread, the Cavs have gone streaking into the break with a 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS record.

The most noticeable improvement that’s taken place during Cleveland’s turnaround has come on the defensive side of the floor, where the Cavaliers have permitted the opposition to score 100 or more points in a game just three times over the club’s last 14 outings. Contrast that with Cleveland surrendering 100 or more points in 24 of 41 contests (58.5 percent) to open the season and you can see why this team is enjoying so much success as of late.

Hoops fans should circle February 26 on their respective calendars, as Steph Curry and the white hot Golden State Warriors pay a visit to Quicken Loans Arena.

Tank you very much

The Knicks (10-43), Timberwolves (11-42), Sixers (12-41) and Lakers (13-40) enter the All-Star break primed for a second-half tank job designed to acquire the most ping pong balls in the race for 6-foot-11, 270-pound Duke standout Jahlil Okafor.

In recent years, the ability to identify the NBA’s worst franchise has led to profitable late-season results. Three seasons ago, the Charlotte Bobcats went 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS over the team’s final 15 games of the season. During the 2012-2013 campaign, the Orlando Magic concluded their tanking with a 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark. And just last year, the Milwaukee Bucks went 1-9 SU and 3-6-1 ATS over their final 10 outings.

Moral of the story? Pay close attention to the NBA’s bottom-feeders during the final month of the season.

Wheeling and dealing

The NBA trade deadline arrives on Thursday, February 19 and while several teams will be looking to either stock up for the 2015 postseason or acquire assets for further down the road, keep a real close eye on the East-leading Atlanta Hawks.

At 43-11 SU and 37-17 ATS, the Hawks recently dealt rookie power forward Adreian Payne to Minnesota in exchange for a future first-round draft selection. The transaction means that Atlanta is now $4.9 million under the salary cap in addition to the fact that the club now has an open roster spot, which puts the Hawks in excellent position to swing a deal by the deadline.

If you thought this team was cooking with gas now, wait until they replace a rookie who appeared in just three games with an established veteran. The Hawks are currently listed at 6/1 to win the championship and 11/5 to win the Eastern Conference.

Stone-cold closers

At 36-17 and in third place in the Western Conference, it’s easy to overlook the Portland Trail Blazers, who conclude the majority of their games long after the good people living on the east coast have gone to bed.

But while teams like the Warriors (+7.3, first in NBA), Hawks (+4.6, second) and Mavericks (+3.6, third) have been manhandling the opposition during the first half of their respective contests, the Blazers enter the break as the league’s top second half squad, outscoring their opponents by an average of 4.2 points per game.

Those of you who dabble in either second half or live wagering would be wise to keep a close eye on the Blazers coming off the break, especially when Portland is playing at home (plus-7.4 margin of victory in second half, first in NBA).
 
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Soccer CL - Round of 16
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

The Champions League returns this week as the last 16 teams in Europe’s Premier club competition face three knockout rounds and a final to see who will be crowned champion. The current favourite is Bayern Munich at 5/2, just a shade ahead of the 11/4 holders Real Madrid. After Real come Barcelona, while Chelsea are the fourth favourites at 7/1. Bookies consider these to be the front-runners. Outsiders such as Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund are 14/1 and 33/1 respectively, while Manchester City are chalked up at 16/1.

Let's handicap UEFA Champions League: Round of 16.

The Banker: Real Madrid to win at Schalke 04 at 4/9

Schalke are a strange team: they have enough money to keep them somewhere near the top table of European football, qualifying for the Champions League and regularly getting out of their group, but are always so badly deficient in certain areas that they are often on the end of thrashings when they come up against the best. Schalke lost this fixture 6-1 last year, and also lost 5-0 at home to Chelsea on matchday 5 of the group stages this season. Schalke were rather fortunate to make it out of an easy group, and there is no reason Real Madrid cannot finish this tie in the first leg. The La Liga table-toppers had a stutter after the winter break in Spain, but got back on track with a 2-0 win over Deportivo La Coruña. At 4/9 they are a very safe bet.

The Solid Bet: PSG to draw with Chelsea at 9/4

This is a repeat of last year’s quarter-final, where Chelsea squeezed through on away goals thanks to Demba Ba scoring in the 88th minute of the second leg. Nearly a year on, Chelsea have progressed massively and sit seven points clear at the top of the Premier League, while PSG have stagnated, or arguably regressed. Despite having by far the biggest budget in French football, the Parisians sit third in Ligue 1. They managed to throw away a two-goal lead at home to lowly Caen in the last few minutes at the weekend. Both they and Chelsea are 9/5 shots at the Parc des Princes. While Chelsea may be the better value, a draw is a better result for them than for PSG, so it may be worth taking the stalemate at 9/4 Mourinho is an expert in digging results out of matches like these, and if the scores are level going into the last 15 minutes, you can bet Mourinho will tell his troops to sit back and take the draw.

The Outsider: Manchester City to beat Barcelona at 5/2

Being seven points behind Chelsea, this tie could be make-or-break for City’s season. They faced Barcelona at the same stage last season, and lost 2-0 at home, but only after Martin Demichelis had been sent off at 0-0. City put in a respectable performance to lose 2-1 in the Nou Camp. While they should not be favourites for this game, they are perhaps longer than they should be at 5/2. Barcelona’s La Liga form has been fantastic lately, while City’s league form has dipped, but this should not sway bettors too much. City’s season was transformed by their unlikely qualification away to Roma for the knockout round of this competition, and if they can recapture that kind of performance, they can give Barça a good game.

The First Goalscorer: Arjen Robben for Bayern Munich at Shakhtar Donetsk at 9/2

Arjen Robben has outscored every other Bayern Munich player in the Bundesliga this year with 14 goals, and he looks a good bet at 9/2 to open the scoring for the Bavarians away to Shakhtar Donetsk. Big summer signing Robert Lewandowski has scored just eight, and Robben has a magnificent record in the Champions League, including scoring the winner in the final for Bayern in 2013. Shakhtar will be hugely unsettled by the conflict in their native Eastern Ukraine - which they have had to vacate for the foreseeable future. Bayern should have few problems here.
 
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PGA Jim Furyk Chokes Again
By Dan Daly

I want to thank Jim Furyk. Two weeks ago when I said, "Jim Furyk will blow at least one golf tournament this year. Actually…make that two. With zero wins." I didn't realize he would make it so easy on me. I mean the man didn't waste any time at all. His first start of the season led to his first 54-hole lead of the season which of course led to his first blown 54-hole lead of the season. It's amazing the man can finish an entire meal without needing the Heimlich maneuver.

People like to play the hypothetical game, "What would you do if you won the lottery?" My answer is very simple. I would hold on to the money until Furyk led a PGA Tour event through 54 holes, take the redeye to Vegas and bet every penny on him to lose said tournament. I would be the first person to ever double my lottery winnings in less than 24 hours.

Furyk managed to not close the deal at Pebble Beach for the NINTH consecutive time he's had at least a share of the 54-hole lead since 2010. I'm getting to the point now where I'm actually more impressed than anything else. I think Ron Burgundy summed it up best.

People say Tiger Woods has made the PGA Tour players more money than anyone else with the TV money that came with him…I respectfully disagree. I think at this point its Jim Furyk in a landslide with the amount of money he donates to players every Sunday.

If Jim Furyk was a lottery ticket he would only get the first five numbers right every time. Sure it's still a nice payday but he will never cash the check that matters.

If Jim Furyk was a football team he would be the Buffalo Bills of the 1990's. In fact I'm pretty sure if you ask him who the most clutch QB of all-time is, he would say Jim Kelly.

Ok, one more…

If Jim Furyk was a movie, he would be Titanic. Grossing a ton of money but everyone knows the ship crashes and sinks before they even start watching.

I will leave you with this one final thought regarding Furyk. Of the top FIFTY players to make the cut he was only one of two players to shoot over par on Sunday.

The Senior Tour and their 54-hole tournaments can't get here fast enough for Furyk…unfortunately for him though their majors are four rounds as well.

Congrats to Sneds though, one bogey in 72 holes is pretty frickin impressive. Glad to see he qualified for the Masters, big fan of his. Hopefully this is what he needed to get back to where he was prior to his rib injury.

Same for DJ, he may not have won but after "some time off" glad to see him playing so well so soon. Everything is just a tune up for his PGA Championship win coming this August to a TV near you.

But the biggest story of the week for me and many others was the heart break felt over the weekend by one John Patrick Daly. I guess it was appropriate that it came over Valentine's weekend though. I already hated Valentine's Day. I think it is a stupid corporate driven day that Hallmark created to sell some candy and a few more cards. After this weekend I really hate it now. The only way I can properly explain my feelings is of course in a Valentine's Day poem to JD.

It was just another Thursday that started off rather slow,
I had no idea you were going to go so low.
I logged on to the leaderboard and much to my surprise,
I saw the name John Daly beginning to rise.
A birdie here, a birdie there,
I knew you were hung-over but I didn't care.
With every shot, you made my heart skip a beat,
As you continued to knock it within 5 feet.
With an opening round of seven under you were off to a great start,
You were number two on the leaderboard but number one in my heart.
It was off to Hooter's to celebrate your opening round 65,
It was the first time in years I finally felt alive.
I know it was early but I thought it was meant to be,
I could already imagine the party with strippers and boos in the RV.
I couldn't wait to get up Friday and see what else you had in store,
Was it a one day tease or was there going to be an encore?
I screamed like a little girl when you took the lead,
But when you made a bogey on your eighth hole my heart began to bleed.
Another followed on ten, and then the twelfth hole as well,
Watching your name fall down the leaderboard was my own personal hell.
After a second round 72 I knew the dream of winning was done,
But even for that early brief moment on Friday the dream sure was fun.
When Valentine's Day rolled around the cut was still in sight,
But with a third round 73 you faded into the night.
At that moment, this tournament was dead to me,
But my man crush on you will always be.
Thanks for giving me even a glimmer of hope this Valentine's Day,
Your gift to me will always be watching you play.

Mark your calendars now folks…April 28, 2016. That is when JD is officially eligible for the Senior Tour and my man is going to dominate.

Finally, the Weekly Waggle is going to be taking periodic breaks the remainder of the year due to other obligations. I will be here for all the majors, both before and after, as well as the other bigger tournaments and of course any breaking stories that involve alleged drugs, hookers or fire hydrants.
 
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PGA Tour stays West

Tournament: Northern Trust Open
Date: Feb. 19 - 22
Venue: Riviera Country Club
Location: Pacific Palisades, CA

The PGA finishes its “West Coast Swing” at Riviera Country Club before the players head east to Florida the following week. As usual for this time of the year, the field is fairly weak with just seven of the top-25 players from the OWGR teeing it up as nice additions from across the pond in No. 7 Sergio Garcia and No. 16 Victor Dubuisson make their first starts on U.S. soil this season.

Another big storyline is the mixture of different players that have won so far on the year, with no multiple victors on the season, as 10 different members attempt to change that this week. Bubba Watson will be trying to defend his title from last year in this tourney and will also be looking to be the first player in 2015 to have multiple wins after coming away with the trophy at the WGC-HSBC Champions back in November. Last year, he was able to card two consecutive 64’s on the weekend as he finished with a score of 15-under; just edging out Dustin Johnson, who was two shots back.

Let’s take a look at a few golfers who could be at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Golfers to Watch:

Webb Simpson (+3500): Simpson has played in a mere four events this year, but has looked great in all of them, finishing in the top-10 twice and has shot a 70 or better in all but one of his rounds. In that time he has hit 75% of GIR, good enough for fifth-best on tour, as he also owns the best scoring average (68.93). Simpson had a poor showing here last season, finishing 70th, but was great in his previous two starts, getting 6th in 2013 and 15th back in 2010. Look for Simpson to be competitive each day and target his fifth career PGA win.

Charl Schwartzel (+3000): Schwartzel has played in the U.S. just twice so far this year with mixed results, but he has three top-15 finishes in five European Tour starts and has a nice track record at this event. He was four shots off Watson’s win last year as he netted a fifth-place finish with a score of 11-under after three straight 68’s to finish off the week. Last year, the South African ranked in the top-30 on tour in driving distance and scoring average and should get some nice numbers this week.

Bernd Wiesberger (+6000): Wiesberger has been tearing up the courses overseas with a top-six finish in each of his four events this year, shooting14-under or better each time out. He’s jumped all the way up to 36th in the OWGR with his stellar play as he is hitting 78.1% of GIR on the European Tour (11th on tour). He could also have some confidence in the United States after a nice 15th-place standing at the PGA Championship back in August where he shot 68-68-65 over the first three days before falling apart with a 74 on Sunday. He could be a sneaky pick that not many think of with his rare appearances in the States.

Cameron Tringale (+13000): Tringale hasn’t exactly had a great season thus far as he flip-flops between making the cut and heading home early from week to week. He will hope to pick up his year with a strong showing at a course where he has played some great golf over the past four seasons. He’s placed in the top-25 each of those years and is coming off his best finish (12th) last season when he shot 11-under on the par-5s over the week. Tringale won’t wow you with any specific part of his game, but has talent and should feel comfortable at Riviera this week.

Vaughn Taylor (250/1): Taylor has never been much of a force in his career, as his two PGA victories coming back in 2004 and 2005. In the past five seasons, he has managed just two top-10 finishes and has done worse in the FedEx Cup standings each successive year. With all that said, Taylor has seemed to find his stroke in the early going this season with top-20 finishes in each of his first two starts as he comes off a nice tie for 10th last week at Pebble Beach. Taylor could just as easily be cut after two rounds, but sometimes you need to look for a flash in the pan and run with it.

Northern Trust Open Betting Odds

Bubba Watson 10/1
Dustin Johnson 10/1
Jordan Spieth 10/1
Jimmy Walker 15/1
Brandt Snedeker 20/1
Hideki Matsuyama 25/1
Bill Haas 28/1
Jim Furyk 28/1
Sergio Garcia 28/1
Charl Schwartzel 30/1
Harris English 30/1
J.B. Holmes 30/1
Nick Watney 35/1
Webb Simpson 35/1
Keegan Bradley 40/1
Hunter Mahan 50/1
Graham Delaet 55/1
Bernd Wiesberger 60/1
Justin Thomas 60/1
Russell Henley 60/1
Ryan Moore 60/1
Sang-Moon Bae 60/1
Scott Stallings 60/1
Charles Howell III 65/1
Charlie Beljan 65/1
Gary Woodland 65/1
Marc Leishman 65/1
Brendon Todd 70/1
Kevin Chappell 70/1
Robert Streb 75/1
Brian Harman 80/1
Luke Donald 80/1
Pat Perez 80/1
Francesco Molinari 85/1
Brendan Steele 90/1
Jason Kokrak 90/1
Aaron Baddeley 100/1
Alex Prugh 100/1
Cameron Tringale 100/1
Charley Hoffman 100/1
Paul Casey 100/1
Shawn Stefani 110/1
Matt Jones 120/1
Tony Finau 120/1
Jhonattan Vegas 130/1
Kevin Na 130/1
Seung-Yul Noh 130/1
K.J. Choi 140/1
Rory Sabbatini 140/1
Brendon de Jonge 160/1
Ernie Els 160/1
John Senden 160/1
Kevin Streelman 160/1
Scott Piercy 160/1
Michael Putnam 170/1
Daniel Summerhays 175/1
Ben Martin 180/1
Brian Stuard 180/1
Bryce Molder 180/1
William McGirt 190/1
Andrew Putnam 200/1
Andrew Svoboda 200/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Geoff Ogilvy 200/1
Jeff Overton 200/1
Lucas Glover 200/1
George McNeill 210/1
Spencer Levin 210/1
Andres Gonzales 230/1
John Peterson 230/1
Adam Hadwin 250/1
Alex Cejka 250/1
Andres Romero 250/1
Billy Hurley III 250/1
Blayne Barber 250/1
Bo Van Pelt 250/1
Brian Davis 250/1
Carlos Ortiz 250/1
Chad Campbell 250/1
Chez Reavie 250/1
Chris Stroud 250/1
Colt Knost 250/1
D.A. Points 250/1
Danny Lee 250/1
David Hearn 250/1
Derek Fathauer 250/1
Erik Compton 250/1
Fred Couples 250/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 250/1
Hudson Swafford 250/1
Jim Herman 250/1
John Huh 250/1
John Merrick 250/1
Justin Hicks 250/1
Kevin Kisner 250/1
Kyle Reifers 250/1
Luke Guthrie 250/1
Mark Wilson 250/1
Martin Flores 250/1
Matt Every 250/1
Michael Thompson 250/1
Morgan Hoffmann 250/1
Nick Taylor 250/1
Padraig Harrington 250/1
Retief Goosen 250/1
Robert Allenby 250/1
Ryo Ishikawa 250/1
Scott Langley 250/1
Steven Bowditch 250/1
Tim Wilkinson 250/1
Troy Merritt 250/1
Vaughn Taylor 250/1
Zac Blair 250/1
 
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Daytona 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts

For those of those us that were starving for any type of NASCAR action through a January with no testing, we sure had our cravings satisfied over the weekend with a wreck-filled Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 qualifying. Sure, we can all say we don’t like crashes and that only the feeble-minded are attracted to the sport because of it, but come on, we’ve been waiting for anything NASCAR for so long and they showed up with a literal bang.

What I learned the most over the weekend was that I didn’t need to learn that much because the cars ran almost exactly like last season. That was my biggest fear coming into the season without preseason testing -- the uncertainty. And while you can never be certain about any restrictor-plate racing because of the volatile nature, we can be certain there is nothing new that will throw us for a loop like tandem racing did a couple years ago.

We can almost say the racing is a continuation of 2014 and that was confirmed when we saw Joe Gibbs Racing finish first and third in the Sprint Unlimited and Hendrick Motorsports put two of their cars on the front row during Daytona 500 qualifying. Last season JGR won the Sprint Unlimited and both Budweiser Duel races as well as the first Talladega race while HMS won the Daytona 500 with Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Despite having a good read on who has the competitive advantage, it stills means very little in the grand scheme of things because things happen so fast at Daytona where one lap you’re leading and the next lap you’re involved in a 14-car pile up.

Because of that volatile nature, you don’t want to go crazy with wagers. Yes, we’re excited because racing is back, but you also have to be realistic and play the percentages. Next week in Atlanta following practices, the odds are in your favor because the top drivers will hold more true to their rating where you’ll start with maybe eight drivers that present the best value at the beginning of the week, and then you‘ll narrow it down to maybe four or five after final practices and then have a great shot at showing a profit for the week. For Daytona, even though we’re all excited about it being the first real race of the year, you should be betting only half of what your normal weekly NASCAR bankroll is.

There will be 43 drivers starting in Sunday’s race and 35 of them have a legitimate shot to win. Next week in Atlanta, there are only 15 drivers that a legitimate case can be made for. Translation: Daytona odds favor the sportsbooks, which is why most are willing to give double-digit odds to win on all of them. You won’t see a favorite as high as 10/1 odds on any other non-restrictor plate track like Earnhardt Jr. is this week at the Westgate SuperBook.

This week, we get some kind of NASCAR racing almost every day up until Sunday. There will be two practices on Wednesday, a practice Thursday and then two Budweiser Duel qualifying races later that night, which wagering will also be offered. Friday there are two more practices then final practice Saturday and then the Great American Race on Sunday. That’s quite a bit of action to take in for one week after being starved for so long.

My betting strategy is pretty simple here. I’m not betting it like a normal race, but the wagers will be spread across a few of the Joe Gibbs drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski (12/1) in both matchups and odds to win. Because it’s Daytona, I’ll also throw in a couple of long shots like Greg Biffle at 35/1 and Paul Menard at 50/1. We’ve seen the likes of Trevor Bayne, David Ragan and Aric Almirola cash in a odds of 50/1 of higher at Daytona in recent years, so it’s not a bad idea to take a shot with one or two drivers with long odds.

A driver I have had some good luck picking against in Daytona matchups over the years has been Jimmie Johnson. I actually had him to win the 2006 Daytona 500 as my main driver, and I was burned by going against him in 2013 when he swept the season, but I've had more success on the track betting against the No. 48. He's finished 20th or worse in seven of his last 10 Daytona races -- including the summer 400 mile event. There aren't too many matchups in NASCAR plate races where you can say there is value, but Johnson has proven to be a good bet against.

Overall, I'm sticking with the Joe Gibbs drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski to win. To me, it just has a feel of being Keselowski's turn. He's in his prime right now, has a championship and knows how to run well with the plates on. He has three wins at Talladega, but has yet to win at Daytona, although he did have a career-best third-place in the 2014 Daytona 500. I wish I had something more concrete to state my case for Keselowski other than 'it just feels right' but that's kind of the guessing game you play when wagering the Daytona 500, which is why you shouldn't bet too much. It worked last year when I took Junior to win with my most weighted odds to win wager, and he hadn't won a plate race since 2004.

The bottom line is that there is really no bad bet to win the race until it losses. It's a crap shoot and I'm just hoping my toss of the dice comes up snake eyes with the No. 2.

Now the real key is finding a place to watch it with sound on. On Sunday, you’re going to have to state your case brilliantly to a sports book supervisor that the Super Bowl of NASCAR deserves to be on with sound more than the Cavaliers/Knicks NBA game or Ohio State/Michigan college hoops. It helps sway their opinion if several people ask showing that a large portion of the guests in the room want the race on with sound. It also helps if you show them some bet tickets on the race at their property.

For an event like this you don’t want to stay at home to watch it, you want to be around several others hootin’ and hollerin’ for your driver, but finding a spot was difficult so I just started going to the race itself with a few buddies. If I had to make a bet on the sports book most likely to have the race on with sound it would be at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point sports book. I won’t be at Daytona this year, so I might try my luck with those two places on Sunday.

Top-5 Daytona 500 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
2) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1)
3) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
5) #16 Greg Biffle (35/1)

Does Sprint Unlimited win equate to 500 win?

Since 1979, there have been only five occasions between four drivers that someone has won the Unlimited and Daytona 500 in the same year. The first to do it was Bobby Allsion in 1982, then Bill Elliott in 1987, Dale Jarrett in 1996 and Jeff Gordon the next year in 1997. Jarrett would do it again in 2000 and no has done it since.

Sprint Unlimited Quote of the Night

Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano, who have a history on run-ins, had a late race incident and Harvick wasn’t too happy about Logano’s aggressive driving. “It was a helluva race but just really dumb driving there at the end. You’ve got to be aggressive but you’ve also got to use our head. You can’t just detach it lay it on the floor board.”

Does Duel win equate to 500 win?

You might think we’d have more drivers win one of the Budweiser Duels and Daytona 500 in the same year, but it’s only happened nine times since 1959. The last driver to accomplish the feat was Matt Kenseth in 2012. Before him it was Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2004 and then Dale Earnhardt did it in 1998 -- the only year he ever won the Daytona 500. Cale Yarborough is the only driver ever to do it twice (1977 and 1984). The first driver to do it was Fireball Roberts in 1962. Others include Bill Elliott (1985), Bobby Allison (1988) and Sterling Marlin (1995).

Budweiser Duel Race No. 1 Finish Prediction:

1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (6/1)
3) #27 Paul Menard (20/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
5) #1 Jamie McMurray (12/1)

Note: Jeff Gordon is on the Daytona 500 pole and has no need to mess around with his car and risk wrecking it by racing hard in this race. The same goes for Jimmie Johnson in the second race. Johnson will start on the front row along side Gordon on Sunday. If either wrecks and goes to a back-up car, they'll start from the rear. The only theory that makes Gordon a good play is that this is his last Budweiser Duel and he might want to let it all hang out. However, I'm thinking Gordon is bigger-picture thinking and is set on winning his first Daytona 500 since 2005 and he knows his chances will be diminished in a back-up. I don't think he'll win Sunday, but it would be a great story book ending and we've seen several instances of great stories somehow occuring in NASCAR.

Budweiser Duel Race No. 2 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1)
2) #19 Carl Edwards (9/2)
3) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
4) #3 Austin Dillon (12/1)
5) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (10/1)
 
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NCAAB SEC Analysis
By Jim Feist

The SEC has a bunch of teams loaded with talent, depth and athleticism. Kentucky won national championships in 1998 and 2012, Florida knocked on the door in 2000 getting to the title game against Michigan State, then won it all with back-to-back titles. Here's a look at some of college basketball's best teams in the SEC.

Kentucky: The Wildcats have another powerhouse young team for coach John Calipari, who likes to groom them for one year before they head off to the NBA. Kentucky has a powerful frontcourt of 6-11 freshman Karl-Anthony Towns (8.5 ppg, 6 rpg), 7-0 junior Willie Cauley-Stein and 7-foot sophomore Dakari Johnson (8 ppg, 5.5 rpg).

Even the backcourt is huge with 6-6 sophomore Aaron Harrison (11 ppg) and 6-6 freshman Devin Booker (10.6 ppg). They flattened Kansas (72-40) and North Carolina (84-70) by double digits, and showed clutch ability with back-to-back overtime wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M. The Wildcats are 7-3-1 ATS on the road and 16-7 run under the total with great defense. Just bring on March: This talented, deep group is ready.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks are getting it done by running, Top 15 in the nation in scoring and assists behind a backcourt of 6-5 senior guard Rashad Madden and 6-6 junior Mike Qualls (15.7 ppg). Arkansas leads the SEC in five categories, including scoring (80) & offensive rebounds (13.7).

The frontcourt has a force in 6-11 sophomore Bobby Portis (17.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), and Arkansas is one of five teams in the nation with two top 30 RPI road wins. The Razorbacks have been great at home and at covering against weak teams, 17-8 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. They play 5 of their final 8 games on the road, including a showdown at No. 1 Kentucky to end February.

Texas A&M: The Aggies are not an easy team to face with their attacking defense. They gave up just 70 points to No. 1 Kentucky in a loss -- in double overtime. They held Kentucky to 28% shooting. 6-7 junior guard Jalen Jones (13.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and 6-7 junior Danuel House (13.8 ppg) anchor the backcourt and lead the team in scoring, with 6-9 senior Kourtney Roberson manning the low post.

Junior guard Alex Caruso is a terrific playmaker averaging 5.5 assists per contest. The Aggies are a great bounce back team, 51-25 ATS following a loss. And that great defense really helps on the road, where the Aggies are 46-21 under the total.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have impressed with another strong offense behind the backcourt duo of junior guard Stephan Moody (15.5 ppg) and senior Jarvis Summers (13 ppg). Like Texas A&M, they took top-ranked Kentucky to overtime, an 89-86 loss. They held Kentucky to 42% shooting. Ole Miss is now 13-102 against Kentucky! Kentucky had its worst defensive game of the season. The Wildcats allowed Ole Miss to shoot 49 percent from the floor and 53 percent from 3-point range. Kentucky was also outscored in the paint 30-26 by Ole Miss. Ole Miss has been on a recent 10-4 run over the total, including 7-2 over on the road.

LSU: It’s no secret how the Tigers win: Like the days of Shaq or Big Baby Davis they have a huge frontcourt with 6-10 sophomore Jarrell Martin (16 ppg, 9 rpg) and 6-8 sophomore Jordan Mickey (16.7 ppg, 11 rpg). Once again they are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation.

The backcourt has size, too, with 6-6 sophomore Tim Quarterman (12 ppg) and 6-4 junior Keith Hornsby (12.6 ppg). The Tigers have been better on the road than last season, pulling off victories at Ole Miss, Florida and Vandy, the latter in overtime. They even have a non-conference win at West Virginia building an impressive resume before March. LSU is 20-7 over the total in SEC play.

Georgia: Let’s call them the “Not-Quite Bulldogs,” because they haven’t quite been there when stepping up. Georgia lost to Gonzaga by 14, lost at home to Arkansas by 4 and lost in double overtime at LSU. 6-8 senior Marcus Thornton (13.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg) is a force at center but missed a few games recently with a concussion.

The backcourt is fine with 6-3 junior Kenny Gaines (11 ppg) and 6-5 junior Charles Mann (11 ppg). They had a showdown at Kentucky and covered as a +18 dog, but lost by 11 after falling behind at the half, 42-27. Georgia committed 16 turnovers leading to 18 Kentucky points. The Bulldogs are an impressive 30-12-1 ATS against the SEC and 19-7 under the total after a spread cover.
 
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NCAAB North Carolina at Duke
By Brian Edwards

The first of at least two Duke-North Carolina games is the annual indicator that we've reached the stretch run in the college basketball season. That comes tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium where the Blue Devils will take on a slumping Tar Heels club at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

As of early this morning, most books had Duke (22-3 straight up, 13-11-1 against the spread) installed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Mike Krzyzewski's team has won 11 of its 12 home games, going 5-6-1 ATS.

Since losing at Notre Dame, Duke has won has won five in a row while posting a 3-2 spread record. The Blue Devils went to the Carrier Dome on Saturday and captured an 80-72 win as 7.5-point road 'chalk.' The 152 combined points slipped 'over' the 148.5-point total.

Jahlil Okafor was the catalyst with 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting from the field. Okafor, who is probably the favorite to win ACC Player of the Year honors at this point, pulled down 13 rebounds against the Orange. The freshman center is averaging 18.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.

Quinn Cook added 17 points, five assists, two steals and only one turnover at Syracuse. Tyus Jones finished with 11 points, six boards and six assists.

North Carolina (18-7 SU, 12-12-1 ATS) has been an underdog three times this year, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. The Tar Heels are currently mired in a 2-8-1 ATS slump. They have lost three of their last four games, including Saturday's 89-76 loss at Pittsburgh as 3.5-point road favorites.

Jamie Dixon's squad just took it to UNC from the opening jump, leading by 14 at intermission and by as many as 24 at one point. The 13-point margin was a misleading final score, as the Tar Heels were never in the game in the second half.

In the losing effort, Brice Johnson had a team-best 19 points for UNC. Kennedy Meeks was also in double figures with 15 points in only 19 minutes of playing time. Marcus Paige had five rebounds and six assists without a turnover. However, Paige was held to just eight points and made only 1-of-7 from long distance.

Paige, who scored 24 points in last season's loss at Duke, leads UNC in scoring (13.9 points per game), assists (4.2 APG) and steals (1.4 SPG). Johnson averages 12.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, while Meeks is averaging 12. 4 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest. Meeks has a team-high 31 blocked shots and Johnson has 26 rejections.

The 'over' is 14-9-1 overall for Duke, 8-2 in its home games.

The 'over' is 14-8-1 overall for UNC, cashing in eight of its last 10 games. The 'over' is 5-3 in the Tar Heels' road assignments.

When these bitter adversaries met at Cameron last year, Duke won a 93-81 decision to take the cash as a 9.5-point home favorite.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- The 'under' is on a 9-3 run in the last 12 Duke-UNC meetings.

-- Louisville has suspended starting guard Chris Jones (13.6 PPG) for a violation of team rules. He will miss more than just tonight's game against Syracuse. It sounds like a three-gamer similar to the suspension recently served by Kansas St.'s leading scorer Marcus Foster.

-- Seton Hall has suspended senior guard Sterling Gibbs for the next two games following his cheap shot against Villanova's Ryan Arcidiacono in Monday's blowout loss in Philadelphia. Gibbs, who leads the Pirates in scoring (16.9 PPG), is fortunate the suspension wasn't more stern. In an act of frustration that sums up the last month for Kevin Willard's team, Gibbs deliberately landed a clean elbow to Arcidiacono's nose after he lost a scrum for a loose ball. The Pirates have been immersed in frustration with Gibbs and other upperclassmen clashing while they have lost nine of their last 12 games since getting out to a 12-2 start.

--When Florida hosts Vanderbilt on Wednesday night at the O-Dome, leading scorer Michael Frazier II will miss his third straight game due to a high-ankle sprain. The Gators have lost a pair of games (vs. Ole Miss and at Texas A&M) by one point apiece without the junior guard. They have six losses this season by eight combined points.

-- Georgia guard J.J. Frazier (10.3 PPG) missed Tuesday's home loss to South Carolina due to a fractured orbital bone and a concussion sustained in Saturday's home loss to Auburn. When you are on the bubble, you don't lose back-to-back home games to Auburn and South Carolina. However, that's what UGA has done and it still has to play Kentucky at Stegeman Coliseum next week.

-- Boise St. will be short-handed again tonight at UNLV. The Broncos saw their eight-game winning streak snapped Saturday at Fresno St. when five players were out with injuries and suspensions. Mikey Thompson and Montigo Alford are expected to be out again against the Rebels, while Dezmyn Trent and Jake Ness are 'questionable' with injuries. Of course, Anthony Drmic is gone for the year after having ankle surgery in December. Rashad Vaughn, UNLV's leading scorer, will also miss this game with an injury. Most spots had BSU favored by one early this morning. CBS Sports Network will have the telecast at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

-- After winning and covering at Tennessee last night, Kentucky is 26-0 for the first time in school history.

-- Cincinnati has five wins against RPI Top-50 foes, but it has lost three of its last five games to fall to No. 39 in the RPI. The Bearcats had a horrible loss Saturday at home to Tulane. They will try to get back on track tonight versus arch-rival Xavier as one-point home favorites.

-- East Carolina has covered in six straight until getting beaten by a hook in Saturday's 66-53 loss at Temple as a 12.5-point underdog. Jeff Lebo's Pirates are catching 10.5 points tonight at Tulsa.
 
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NCAAB Game of the Day: UNC at Duke

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils (-9)

Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor receives his first opportunity to experience the school’s rivalry with North Carolina when the No. 5 Blue Devils host the No. 16 Tar Heels on Wednesday. The standout has nine double-doubles and also became the fourth Duke freshman with 10 or more 20-point games in a season when he had 23 points and 13 rebounds in last Saturday’s 80-72 win over Syracuse. The Blue Devils have won five straight games while the Tar Heels have lost three of four.

Slumping North Carolina is tied for fourth place in the tough ACC and is coming off an 89-76 loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday in which it allowed the Panthers to shoot 64.9 percent from the field. The Tar Heels are playing their third consecutive road game – though this one is the short bus ride from Chapel Hill to Durham – and fourth in five games. Duke is hard to beat at home, going 11-1 with the lone loss occurring against Miami on Jan. 13.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN, ACC Network

LINE HISTORY: Offshore books opened at Duke -9.

INJURY REPORT: UNC - G Theo Pinson (Out-Foot) Duke - N/A

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "North Carolina is really struggling right now; the Tar Heels are just 1-3 SU over their last four games. Since the start of 2015, North Carolina has been burning money as they are just 3-8-1 ATS, including 0-4 ATS when they lose a game straight-up. They were underdogs in two of those games, so the trend is somewhat relevant to this game since they are getting points. Duke is a young team that has been inconsistent this season. The Blue Devils are not as good as their 22-3 SU record indicates. Overall, Duke has a +15.4 point differential this season. But in conference games in 2015, Duke only has a +6.6 point differential which clearly shows that the Blue Devils’ play has been significantly worse against better competition. This series hasn’t been close in recent years as the average winning margin has been 11.8 points per game during the past five meetings." - Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The old adage gets tossed around loosely but this is a rivalry where you can throw everything out the window. We all know that UNC is slumping at the moment, but there will be no shortage of motivation for this marquee matchup. That said, the defense will have to be flying around the perimeter to keep Duke’s shooters at bay, and that has been a very suspect area for the Tar Heels this year. We will need to be high on the Devils’ side to entice dog money." - John Lester

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (18-7 SU, 12-12-1 ATS, 14-8-1 O/U): Guard Marcus Paige continues to play through a foot ailment and it caught up to him against Pittsburgh when he had just eight points to end a streak of six consecutive double-digit outings. Paige leads the Tar Heels in scoring (13.9), 3-point baskets (60) and steals (35) while forwards Brice Johnson (12.5 points, team-best 7.8 rebounds) and Kennedy Meeks (12.4 points, 7.6 excel in the frontcourt. Forward Isaiah Hicks recently moved into the starting lineup and scored a career-best 21 points against Boston College on Feb. 7 but tallied only five points in the loss to Pittsburgh.

ABOUT DUKE (22-3 SU, 13-11-1 ATS, 14-9 O/U): Guard Quinn Cook has scored in double digits in seven of the last eight games, including a season-best 26 points against Florida State en route to winning ACC Player of the Week honors. Cook is averaging 14.8 points – second behind Okafor (18.2 points, team-best 9.3 rebounds) – and has made 65 3-pointers, knocking down at least one in 35 consecutive games, tied for second in school history with J.J. Redick (2006). Guard Justise Winslow (11.4) and point guard Tyus Jones (11.3 points, 5.3 assists) also average in double digits.

TRENDS:

*Tar Heels are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
*Over is 6-1 in Blue Devils last 7 home games.
*Road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
*Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 62.08 percent are backing UNC +9.
 
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Louisville red-hot covering against Syracuse
Justin Hartling

When it comes to Louisville-Syracuse, the results have been one-sided both on the court and at the window. The Cardinals are 10-2 straight up and 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 matchups versus the Orange.

Syracuse is not just cold against Louisville though, as the Orange have covered just one in their past nine games (1-7-1 ATS).
 
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Five college basketball teams wearing Cinderella's shoe size
By JASON LOGAN

There’s just under a month to go before the field for the NCAA tournament shakes out on Selection Sunday. And it seems every year, dedicated college hoop heads are planning their bracket breakdown earlier and earlier.

Obviously, the ultimate goal is to find the next Cinderella team that will burn opposing brackets and make you a pretty penny during their March Madness run. In order to help us identify some possible suitors for the glass slipper in 2015, we looked back at recent Cinderella teams and what made them great, trying to find a current program cut from a similar cloth.

Here are five past tournament stunners and the teams that could be walking in their foot prints come tourney time:

2014 Dayton Flyers: A high-level mid-major program that found their form at this point in conference play and punched their ticket to the tournament as a No. 11 seed, taking down heavyweights Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford before losing to Florida in the Elite Eight. The Flyers faced some notables in non-conference play and had tough test in an underrated Atlantic 10.

Their match: Staying inside the A-10, the UMass Minutemen are getting hot at the right time and currently sit on the NCAA bubble after putting together six straight wins heading into Wednesday’s road trip to Rhode Island. Massachusetts' defense has been much better during this run, giving up 63 points per game, and has been able to turn up the tempo on offense when need be – similar to the versatility Dayton showed last year. The Minutemen played the ninth toughest non-conference slate in the country, headlined by matchups with Boston College, Notre Dame, Florida State, LSU, Providence, BYU and Iona.

2014 Connecticut Huskies: Tough to call the national champions “Cinderellas”, but no one had UConn doing this much damage as a No. 7 seed last March. The Huskies were a storied program with tournament experience that finished 12-6 in AAC play and ranked 22nd in RPI at 0.6145. UConn was one of the better teams in the AAC but couldn’t get over the hump against the conference’s elite.

Their match: The Ohio State Buckeyes are pegged for a No. 8 seed in the tournament and have many of the qualities UConn had from last year. Ohio State has a strong defense and an offense that can pile on the points when need be. The Buckeyes have lost games to teams ahead of them in the Big Ten standings, but still roll out an RPI of 0.5869 – ranked 35th in the country. They’re on the edge of potential Cinderella stature, which is line the Huskies walked perfectly last March.

2013 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles: Florida Gulf Coast picked up plenty of fans with their Cinderella run in 2013, thanks in part to their high-flying antics and up-tempo offense. Fifteenth-seeded Florida Gulf Coast scored a favorable matchup versus methodical No. 2 Georgetown in the Round of 64, then out-worked San Diego State before losing to Florida in the Sweet 16. The Eagles were tournament ready as well, with a non-conference slate that included VCU, Duke, St. John’s and Iowa State that season.

Their match: The BYU Cougars run a similar pace as FGCU did in 2013, ranked as the sixth fastest tempo in college hoops. The Cougars average a Div. I-high 84.8 points per game and shoot an efficient 46.9 percent from the field, much like the Eagles in 2012-13. Brigham Young is on the bubble in the WCC, behind Gonzaga and St. Mary’s but just knocked off the Gaels by 22 points last week – part of a 5-1 SU stretch. And BYU had a tough non-conference calendar, ranked No. 16 in SOS, including a spot in the Maui Invitational facing San Diego State and Purdue, as well as matchups with Utah, Eastern Kentucky and Stanford. The Cougars are a team no one wants to play in the opening week of tournament play – if they make the cut Selection Sunday.

2012 Ohio Bobcats: People kind of forget about the Bobcats’ Cinderella run in the 2012 tournament, doing some serious damage as a No. 13 seed. Ohio knocked off No. 4 Michigan and then No. 12 South Florida before losing to No. 1 North Carolina in overtime in the Sweet 16. That 2012 Bobcats team was fueled by an aggressive defense that converted turnovers into easy buckets. Ohio forced opponents to cough up the ball 17.3 times per game. The Bobcats wobbled a bit down the stretch and won the MAC tournament as the No. 3 seed in the East.

Their match: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a similar team this season, forcing opponents to cough up the ball 16.4 times per game – 12th most in the country. They’re putting up 73.3 points per game and top the C-USA with just two conference losses. Louisiana Tech is projected to score a No. 14 seed and boasts an RPI of 0.5585 – very close to what Ohio (0.5672) back in 2012. The Bulldogs faced three major-conference opponents on the road earlier in the season, giving Temple, Syracuse and NC State a good fight in non-con play.

2011 Butler Bulldogs/VCU Rams: These two Cinderellas collided in the 2011 Final Four back before Butler joined the major-conference grind and Virginia Commonwealth leapt to the A-10. The No. 8 Bulldogs and No. 11 Rams were both built on defense, with Butler boasting more tournament experience after losing in the national title game to Duke the previous year (tough to tag them as a real Cinderella). The programs both had tremendous coaching, with Brad Stevens leading the Bulldogs (now coaching the Boston Celtics) and Shaka Smart (who has a long list of big-name suitors) on the sidelines for VCU.

Their match: The Wichita State Shockers find themselves more like Butler than VCU, having gone to the Final Four in 2013 and to the Sweet 16 last March. The Shockers are projected for a No. 7 seed, and have a smothering defense that allows just 56.1 points on 40.1 percent shooting per game. Wichita State has been challenged by Northern Iowa in the always-fun Missouri Valley Conference, the same way Cleveland State and Milwaukee pushed Butler in the Horizon League in 2010-11. Head coach Gregg Marshall is ranked among college hoops royalty right now and could take a big job if he wanted one. This WSU team is very, very "Butlery" right now.
 
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NCAAB

UMass beat Rhode Island 60-56 in first meeting Jan 17, after trailing by 6 with 6:12 left. Minutemen won last six games overall,. are 5-1 in road in A-14, with only loss by 6 at St Joe's- their last 11 games were decided by 8 or less points. URI won six of last seven games, with four of six wins by 5 or less points; they're 2-2-1 as home favorites. UMass is 3-1 as an A-14 underdog. A-14 home faves of 6 or less points are 11-9 vs spread.

Xavier won five of last seven games with Cincinnati in a hotly contested inner-city rivalry; last four series games were all decided by 15+ points. Both teams come into tonight 2-3 in their last five games; Musketeers are 6-1 in last seven games when they allowed less than 78 points. Bearcats averaged 55.6 ppg in last five games, losing last two by 1-16 points; they lost last game as a 12-point favorite to Tulane- they turn ball over 21.8% of time, in bottom 40 in country.

Florida lost its last four games, is under .500 and likely going nowhere in March, after SEC tourney; Gators scored 62 or less points in each of last six games- their last seven were all decided by 7 or less points. Gators got beat 67-61 at Vanderbilt Feb 3; Commodores outscored them 29-13 on foul line. Vandy won its last three games, allowing 59.7 ppg; they're 2-3 as road underdog, with four of five road losses by 8+ points. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 12-19-2 vs spread.

Louisville senior G Jones is suspended for non-basketball reasons; he is averaging 30.8 mpg, 13.6 ppg- big loss. Cardinals lost two of last three games, are 4-2 on ACC road, losing at UNC/Virginia. Syracuse is 3-5 in its last eight games, losing two of last three at home; they allowed 77.4 ppg in last five games, covered once in last six games overall. Teams split last two meetings in '13, with Cards winning Big East title game. ACC home underdogs of less than 5 points are 8-5 vs spread.

William & Mary beat Northeastern 78-62 at home Jan 24; they had a +7 turnover ratio (14-7), held Huskies to 2-20 from arc. Tribe is underdog in CAA for first time this year; they won five of last seven games overall, are 4-3 on CAA road, with three of four wins by 13+. Huskies won five of last six home games, but are 4-6 as CAA favorites- they won last seven times they scored 69+ points. Favorites are 12-8 vs spread in CAA games with spread of 3 or less points.

James Madison waxed Drexel 54-35 in Philly Jan 15, ugly game they led 17-12 at half; Dukes are 7-3 in their last ten games, winning last three by 2-13-11, but they're 3-3 at home, with one win by more than six points. Drexel won six of last seven games after starting season 4-14; they are 8-4 as CAA underdog, 4-2 on road, with losses by 7-28 points. Visitor won last five JMU games SU. CAA home favorites of 6+ points are 5-15.

Toledo made 9-11 from arc, spanked Akron 84-67 Jan 9, game that was 37-34 at half. Rockets won six of last seven games, are 4-1 on MAC road, with only loss by 7 at Kent, their only MAC loss by more than three. Akron split its last four games but is 5-0-1 as home favorite, with four of six MAC home wins by 9+ points, but four of their last five overall were decided by 3 or less points. MAC home favorites of less than 4 points are 10-4-1 vs spread.

Providence beat DePaul 83-72 at home Jan 29, outscoring Blue Demons 26-13 on foul line in game they led by 18 at half. Friars are 2-3 since that game, are 3-3 on Big East road (dog in all six games). DePaul lost five of last six games, covering last three- their last five losses are by 8+ points; they're 5-1 as home underdogs, 4-2 at home in Big East, losing by 6 to Georgetown, 13 to Villanova. Big East home underdogs are 12-7 against the spread.

Northwestern snapped 10-game skid by upsetting Iowa at home in last game; Wildcats are 5-1 as road underdogs, with only two road losses by more than 7 points. Minnesota is 1-4 as Big 14 home favorite, with one home win by more than 9 points; Gophers won three of last four games overall, are forcing turnovers 24.1% of time, best in Big 14. Teams split last 12 series games. Northwestern's last three losses are all by 15+. Big 14 double digit home favorites are 5-11 vs spread.

Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 63-61 at home Jan 6, blowing 11-point second half lead in game where both teams were 7-21 from arc. Cyclones lost last four road games, allowing 78,8 ppg; they're 2-2 as road dogs, 3-5 vs spread in last eight games overall. Cowboys won three of last four, are 4-1 as home favorites, with four of five home wins by 11+. Underdogs covered Oklahoma State's last five games. Big X home favorites of 4 or less points are 10-7 vs spread.

Duke won eight of last eleven games with North Carolina, winning last two here by 5-12 points. Blue Devils won last five games, with three of five by 6 or less points; they're 2-3 as home favorites, with four of five home wins by 14+ points. Tar Heels lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 10+ points; they allowed 70+ pointsin six of last seven games, are 0-2 as ACC underdogs. ACC home favorites of 6+ points are 9-18 against the spread.

UCLA won seven of last eight games wirh Arizona State, splitting last six games played here; Bruins won five of their last six games, but four of the five wins were at home- they're 2-5 on Pac-12 road, winning at USC and Stanford. ASU is 5-0 in Pac-12 when it scored 73+, 0-7 when it doesn't; UCLA held its last six opponents under 70 points. Sun Devils are 5-3 in last eight games, 3-2 at home in Pac-12, losing to Oregon/Utah. Pac-12 home favorites of less than 5 points are 8-4 vs spread.

Will be emotional night at UNLV; they're honoring Jerry Tarkanian on a night where Strip will go dark for 3:00 after game, but Rebels are down to seven scholarship players with star Vaughn hurt. UNLV lost 82-73 at Boise in OT Jan 13, game Rebels led by 3 with 3:00 left. UNLV won four of last six games; its last three losses are by total of seven points. Boise won seven of its last eight games. Mountain West home teams are 7-11-1 in games with spread of 4 or less points.
 
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'Thursday Hoops'

A brutal three week's of nine straight road games has San Antonio Spurs opening the second half in L.A where they will clash with Clippers. Ejected from the AT&T Center by the San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo the Spurs opened this year's road trek with a loss in Toronto followed by a pair of victories at Indiana and Detroit. The 2-1 start to this year's Rodeo Tour moves Gregg Popovich's troops to 43-20 the past 63 during these excursions cashing 36 tickets over the span (36-25-2 ATS). As consistent as Spurs have been during these road swings the 'Rodeo Boys' are in for a battle when they hit Staples Center hardwood. The Clippers have an exceptionally good 21-7 home-court record (12-16 ATS) where they net a whopping 107.1 PPG. On the other side, Spurs are a pedestrian 14-12 on the road this season dropping 96.9 through the hoop (13-13 ATS). When handicapping this game a few betting nuggets to consider. Even without Blake Griffin on the floor the Clippers have won 2-of-3 averaging 111.0 points/game. Spurs have not been good betting choices of late posting a 2-7-1 ATS record. Spurs are just 2-7 ATS this campaign allowing 105 or more points/game, 1-4-2 ATS last 7 vs a Pacific opponent, 3-7 ATS with 4 or more days rest.
 

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