Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Wednesday
7:00 PM NCAAB
(725) ARKANSAS STATE at (726) MISSISSIPPI STATE
Take: (726) MISSISSIPPI STATE -11.5
Is there such a thing as a good value spot on a double digit favorite? Not very often, but I think one can make a case that Mississippi State might be a bit of a bargain tonight as they host Arkansas State.
The visiting Red Wolves are struggling thus far. Aside from some decent offensive rebounding numbers, this team has been pretty mediocre at almost everything. That’s not a surprise, as Arkansas State returned zero starters from last year’s entry and head coach John Brady is still trying to put together the right combinations in advance of Sun Belt play.
Mississippi State is also having problems, and the Bulldogs are probably going to have a rough go of it in SEC play. But this looks to me to be a spot where there are some fairly compelling reasons to chance laying some lumber with the home team.
It’s the first home game for Mississippi State since November 24 and head coach Rick Ray made no bones about the fact his players are looking forward to finally playing in Starkville. We’re getting the Bulldogs off three straight losses, so I would think there’s very little chance they won’t be focused tonight.
Craig Sword is back in action for the Bulldogs following back surgery that had kept him sidelined for the first seven games. Sword admits that he’s still got a ways to go with his conditioning. But his mere presence on the floor makes Mississippi State a better team. He’s the best player on this roster and Sword’s ability to penetrate should definitely help the Bulldogs increase their offensive efficiency.
This amounts to a right opponent at the right time scenario for a Mississippi State team that really could use a win. It would appear to be a good physical matchup for the Bulldogs and when I think I’m going to get a concerted effort out of a home favorite, I don’t mind giving up some points. That’s the case here and I’m laying it tonight with Mississippi State.
Bonus Play Wednesday
7:00 PM NCAAB
(725) ARKANSAS STATE at (726) MISSISSIPPI STATE
Take: (726) MISSISSIPPI STATE -11.5
Is there such a thing as a good value spot on a double digit favorite? Not very often, but I think one can make a case that Mississippi State might be a bit of a bargain tonight as they host Arkansas State.
The visiting Red Wolves are struggling thus far. Aside from some decent offensive rebounding numbers, this team has been pretty mediocre at almost everything. That’s not a surprise, as Arkansas State returned zero starters from last year’s entry and head coach John Brady is still trying to put together the right combinations in advance of Sun Belt play.
Mississippi State is also having problems, and the Bulldogs are probably going to have a rough go of it in SEC play. But this looks to me to be a spot where there are some fairly compelling reasons to chance laying some lumber with the home team.
It’s the first home game for Mississippi State since November 24 and head coach Rick Ray made no bones about the fact his players are looking forward to finally playing in Starkville. We’re getting the Bulldogs off three straight losses, so I would think there’s very little chance they won’t be focused tonight.
Craig Sword is back in action for the Bulldogs following back surgery that had kept him sidelined for the first seven games. Sword admits that he’s still got a ways to go with his conditioning. But his mere presence on the floor makes Mississippi State a better team. He’s the best player on this roster and Sword’s ability to penetrate should definitely help the Bulldogs increase their offensive efficiency.
This amounts to a right opponent at the right time scenario for a Mississippi State team that really could use a win. It would appear to be a good physical matchup for the Bulldogs and when I think I’m going to get a concerted effort out of a home favorite, I don’t mind giving up some points. That’s the case here and I’m laying it tonight with Mississippi State.
Jim Feist
Comp Pick for Wednesday, December 17, 2014: 7:35 PM EST
(705) UTAH JAZZ VS (706) MIAMI HEAT
Take: (706) MIAMI HEAT.
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, December 17, 2014 is in the NBA contest between the Utah Jazz and the Heat in Miami, Florida. Utah is playing hard for their coach, on a 2-1 spread run, even beating the defending champion Spurs straight up as a +9 dog, 100-96. Miami is a weak home team with a 4-7 record, ranked 24th in the NBA in points scored and 30th in rebounding. Miami is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. It's the second of a back to back spot for both teams, with Miami at Brooklyn last night. Miami is banged up with injuries, with Dwyane Wade (illness) and Chris Bosh both hurting. The news got worse Monday, when Josh McRoberts was diagnosed with a torn meniscus that has ended his season. Second-year center Justin Hamilton, who's started the last three games, could also be held out with a quad injury. The Heat is 5-13 ATS against the Western Conference. And when these teams meet the underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Play Utah!
Comp Pick for Wednesday, December 17, 2014: 7:35 PM EST
(705) UTAH JAZZ VS (706) MIAMI HEAT
Take: (706) MIAMI HEAT.
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, December 17, 2014 is in the NBA contest between the Utah Jazz and the Heat in Miami, Florida. Utah is playing hard for their coach, on a 2-1 spread run, even beating the defending champion Spurs straight up as a +9 dog, 100-96. Miami is a weak home team with a 4-7 record, ranked 24th in the NBA in points scored and 30th in rebounding. Miami is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. It's the second of a back to back spot for both teams, with Miami at Brooklyn last night. Miami is banged up with injuries, with Dwyane Wade (illness) and Chris Bosh both hurting. The news got worse Monday, when Josh McRoberts was diagnosed with a torn meniscus that has ended his season. Second-year center Justin Hamilton, who's started the last three games, could also be held out with a quad injury. The Heat is 5-13 ATS against the Western Conference. And when these teams meet the underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Play Utah!
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 11 - Post: 9:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$3800 - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $5000.
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium
# 5 LIBERTYS BEST STAR 5/2
# 2 WINDSUN CALLUM 7/5
# 6 LIS DEO 15/1
LIBERTYS BEST STAR figures to be our best wagering option in this competition. A really strong play in here as he has one of the highest winning percents in the group of animals as well as tremendous credentials all around. Post 5 has been winning at an above average stat, suggesting really good probability of success in this race. WINDSUN CALLUM - His 76 average has this gelding among the most solid speed figs in this contest. With a tremendous driver, who has won at a very good 20 percent rate the last 30 days, this has to be one of the top picks. LIS DEO - Horoscope said take a chance today, this nice horse is as good as any to take a shot with.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 11 - Post: 9:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$3800 - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $5000.
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium
# 5 LIBERTYS BEST STAR 5/2
# 2 WINDSUN CALLUM 7/5
# 6 LIS DEO 15/1
LIBERTYS BEST STAR figures to be our best wagering option in this competition. A really strong play in here as he has one of the highest winning percents in the group of animals as well as tremendous credentials all around. Post 5 has been winning at an above average stat, suggesting really good probability of success in this race. WINDSUN CALLUM - His 76 average has this gelding among the most solid speed figs in this contest. With a tremendous driver, who has won at a very good 20 percent rate the last 30 days, this has to be one of the top picks. LIS DEO - Horoscope said take a chance today, this nice horse is as good as any to take a shot with.
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Post: 8:05 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$5200 - 5-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $5,000 LIFE. SARATOGA
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium
# 6 HIGH SERIOUSNESS 5/2
# 8 AUTUMN ESTELLE 2/1
# 1 MOVEUP 3/1
Really keen on the chance of HIGH SERIOUSNESS taking down the winner's share here. He has been performing soundly and the speed ratings are among the best in the group of animals. With a 74 average class statistic, this entrant has one of the best class advantages in the grouping. Many race players will recognize the excellent speed figure in the last competition. Stacks up against any horse in this group of animals. AUTUMN ESTELLE - Has to be given a look based on the really strong TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in the most recent race. This horse will be greatly helped with Aldrich driving. 20 percent winners the past month. MOVEUP - Has one of the strongest win figures in the group and may be able to add to those percentages right here. The 1 hole is on fire here at Saratoga Harness. More wins than you would expect.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Post: 8:05 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$5200 - 5-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $5,000 LIFE. SARATOGA
CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium
# 6 HIGH SERIOUSNESS 5/2
# 8 AUTUMN ESTELLE 2/1
# 1 MOVEUP 3/1
Really keen on the chance of HIGH SERIOUSNESS taking down the winner's share here. He has been performing soundly and the speed ratings are among the best in the group of animals. With a 74 average class statistic, this entrant has one of the best class advantages in the grouping. Many race players will recognize the excellent speed figure in the last competition. Stacks up against any horse in this group of animals. AUTUMN ESTELLE - Has to be given a look based on the really strong TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in the most recent race. This horse will be greatly helped with Aldrich driving. 20 percent winners the past month. MOVEUP - Has one of the strongest win figures in the group and may be able to add to those percentages right here. The 1 hole is on fire here at Saratoga Harness. More wins than you would expect.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 83
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 7 YOUR IN 5/1
# 4 CREME BRULEE 2/1
# 1 OVER AGAIN 5/2
I think YOUR IN is a strong choice. Is a strong contender based on figs put up lately under today's conditions. Ahearn has her trained solidly to break quickly out of the starting gate. Must be carefully examined based on the very good speed fig recorded in the last race. CREME BRULEE - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong angle. This one ranks at the top in this group. With a competitive 83 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. OVER AGAIN - Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 68 speed rating which is one of the best in this group. Strong jockey and handler combo winning 19 percent of their races working together.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 83
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 7 YOUR IN 5/1
# 4 CREME BRULEE 2/1
# 1 OVER AGAIN 5/2
I think YOUR IN is a strong choice. Is a strong contender based on figs put up lately under today's conditions. Ahearn has her trained solidly to break quickly out of the starting gate. Must be carefully examined based on the very good speed fig recorded in the last race. CREME BRULEE - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong angle. This one ranks at the top in this group. With a competitive 83 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. OVER AGAIN - Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 68 speed rating which is one of the best in this group. Strong jockey and handler combo winning 19 percent of their races working together.
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6600 Class Rating: 81
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 10 CITY SHADOWS 5/2
# 4 ROCKY MTN FREEDOM 4/1
# 1 TAX ENOUGH 7/2
CITY SHADOWS is my choice. This animal is highly ranked this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Lucarelli has this gelding racing well and is a respectable selection based on the decent speed figs posted in sprint races recently. Gutierrez has a winning percentage of 18 over the last month. ROCKY MTN FREEDOM - The speed fig of 78 from his last affair looks respectable in here. With a solid 68 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. TAX ENOUGH - Has to be considered versus this group of horses in this race displaying formidable figs recently and an average Equibase speed fig of 68 under similar conditions. Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 70 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the best in this group of horses.
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6600 Class Rating: 81
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 10 CITY SHADOWS 5/2
# 4 ROCKY MTN FREEDOM 4/1
# 1 TAX ENOUGH 7/2
CITY SHADOWS is my choice. This animal is highly ranked this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Lucarelli has this gelding racing well and is a respectable selection based on the decent speed figs posted in sprint races recently. Gutierrez has a winning percentage of 18 over the last month. ROCKY MTN FREEDOM - The speed fig of 78 from his last affair looks respectable in here. With a solid 68 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. TAX ENOUGH - Has to be considered versus this group of horses in this race displaying formidable figs recently and an average Equibase speed fig of 68 under similar conditions. Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 70 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the best in this group of horses.
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Tampa Bay - Race #5 - Post: 2:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,200 Class Rating: 80
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#2 PRINCE VINCENZO (ML=2/1)
#13 FEROCIOUS TIGER (FR) (ML=8/1)
PRINCE VINCENZO - Running 1 1/16 miles on the grass, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This animal has the tops in the bunch. In this race here, this horse has recorded the highest Equibase speed figure at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. Gallardo rode this horse for the initial time last race out and comes right back today. This colt recorded a nice rating of 77 in his last contest. That speed fig should be high enough to win this time out. FEROCIOUS TIGER (FR) - Ward has a very great win percent in turf routes. This colt should be ready to win. Hernandez comes to get aboard after getting to know the colt in the last contest. Ran last time around the track against tougher competition at Keeneland. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit him well. Don't throw this one out due to his last affair at Keeneland where he finished tenth on the soft turf. Expect better today. When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This horse has the highest average class in the entire field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 VINCENT CHASE (ML=7/2), #8 BROKEN IN (ML=5/1), #10 MIZZ WIZZ (ML=8/1),
VINCENT CHASE - Notched a quite unimpressive speed rating last time out in a Maiden Special race on November 15th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig. BROKEN IN - Hasn't ran since September 13th, probably too long ago to expect much this time out. This colt hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two outings. MIZZ WIZZ - This gelding showed very liitle last out.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PRINCE VINCENZO - Earnings per start is a sign of class. I often play horses like this one that are at the top in the bunch in earnings per start.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 PRINCE VINCENZO to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Bar
Tampa Bay - Race #5 - Post: 2:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,200 Class Rating: 80
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#2 PRINCE VINCENZO (ML=2/1)
#13 FEROCIOUS TIGER (FR) (ML=8/1)
PRINCE VINCENZO - Running 1 1/16 miles on the grass, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This animal has the tops in the bunch. In this race here, this horse has recorded the highest Equibase speed figure at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. Gallardo rode this horse for the initial time last race out and comes right back today. This colt recorded a nice rating of 77 in his last contest. That speed fig should be high enough to win this time out. FEROCIOUS TIGER (FR) - Ward has a very great win percent in turf routes. This colt should be ready to win. Hernandez comes to get aboard after getting to know the colt in the last contest. Ran last time around the track against tougher competition at Keeneland. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit him well. Don't throw this one out due to his last affair at Keeneland where he finished tenth on the soft turf. Expect better today. When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This horse has the highest average class in the entire field.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 VINCENT CHASE (ML=7/2), #8 BROKEN IN (ML=5/1), #10 MIZZ WIZZ (ML=8/1),
VINCENT CHASE - Notched a quite unimpressive speed rating last time out in a Maiden Special race on November 15th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig. BROKEN IN - Hasn't ran since September 13th, probably too long ago to expect much this time out. This colt hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two outings. MIZZ WIZZ - This gelding showed very liitle last out.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PRINCE VINCENZO - Earnings per start is a sign of class. I often play horses like this one that are at the top in the bunch in earnings per start.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 PRINCE VINCENZO to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #2 - Post: 1:12pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 67
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#6 KATIEAFTERDARK (ML=7/2)
KATIEAFTERDARK - Radosevich brings her back again. I suggest you stay with this hot filly. This filly garnered a strong speed figure of 70 in her last race. That speed rating should be strong enough to triumph this time around.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 AND I DID (ML=2/1), #4 IM TELLINGEVERYONE (ML=4/1), #8 CREATIVE KARA (ML=6/1),
AND I DID - Never really did much at all in the last race on Dec 3rd. Hard to play in today's race. Has lost as the favorite the last two times. A repeat is probably in store. IM TELLINGEVERYONE - This mare is always around, but just doesn't get the job done. Tough to bet on her on the win end. Tough to take this racer at this price after the finish position (fifth) in the last event. A 'bounce' is likely to happen for this equine today. May rebound next time. CREATIVE KARA - Not probable that the speed rating she notched on December 8th will be good enough in this race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #6 KATIEAFTERDARK on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Bar
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #2 - Post: 1:12pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 67
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#6 KATIEAFTERDARK (ML=7/2)
KATIEAFTERDARK - Radosevich brings her back again. I suggest you stay with this hot filly. This filly garnered a strong speed figure of 70 in her last race. That speed rating should be strong enough to triumph this time around.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 AND I DID (ML=2/1), #4 IM TELLINGEVERYONE (ML=4/1), #8 CREATIVE KARA (ML=6/1),
AND I DID - Never really did much at all in the last race on Dec 3rd. Hard to play in today's race. Has lost as the favorite the last two times. A repeat is probably in store. IM TELLINGEVERYONE - This mare is always around, but just doesn't get the job done. Tough to bet on her on the win end. Tough to take this racer at this price after the finish position (fifth) in the last event. A 'bounce' is likely to happen for this equine today. May rebound next time. CREATIVE KARA - Not probable that the speed rating she notched on December 8th will be good enough in this race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #6 KATIEAFTERDARK on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
Balmoral: Wednesday 12/17 Analysis
By Jeremey Day
DRF HARNESS
Race 6 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (55 - 107 / $210.60): SS TOMMY TURNER (5th)
Spot Play: JOYFUL GAME (6th)
Race 1
(4) DIAMOND DESIRE IVY pacer just missed last out after being blocked late and finds a weak field. (7) ARLO GRAM was a game winner showing good late kick last start. Watch to make sure the pacer isn't lagging at the start before using on top. (1a) BLACKJACK RIVNDEL owns only one career win but has been knocking on the door at this level.
Race 2
(6) A LOCAL BAND has shown slight improvement with a new driver and finds a suspect bunch. (3) AGENT BOOTH is a contender with a smooth trip; fires late. (5) BANDS ALEXIS gets sent out for hot connections but the filly was never put into the race last out. A good drive makes her the horse to beat.
Race 3
In a field full of question marks (2) ONCE A CHEATER beat a better bunch last start and just needs a similar effort. (7) PARTY IN THE PARK raced gamely last out showing a nice burst of speed. (1a) HURRICANE FINALE one part of an entry that is 0 for the last fifty-nine; use underneath.
Race 4
(2) MARZY BEARZY well bred filly has been facing much tougher and drops in for a tag. (8) MEET ME TONIGHT has lacked pop late in her last two but has won at this level consistently most of the year. (6) EARTHLY DESIRE could be the sleeper in the race and will be much closer turning for home.
Race 5
(5) SS TOMMY TURNER was sharp last out and will look to make it two straight for hot connections. (8) WOOP D DO BAZZLE gelding gets sent out for a barn that could be heating up late in the season. (6) JO JO SPUR was empty last out after racing gamely. If the pacer races back to the start prior he's a threat.
Race 6
(7) JOYFUL GAME mare just needs a good setup to have a say late. (5) CHILLY BREEZ filly was out gamed in her last start but has been first or second in five straight. (6) WESTERN BOUDOIR mare beat this same field last out at a price.
Race 7
In a field with few contenders (7) IT'S A BIG SECRET is one of few with upside in the race and showed a nice late kick in his last outing. (2) SPEED RACER gelding has been much better off the layoff despite tiring late in the mile last out. (1) CHIPPER scored the first victory of the year for the barn and should be in the mix with a similar effort.
Race 8
(2) SUN DREAM has won four of five and gets sent out for a new barn that is on a good roll. (1) KITTY O'BRIEN mare has a tough time pacing the turns but can pace up a storm late in the right scenario. (5) MOON BAY DANCER closed good ground late last out and should offer a nice price.
Race 9
In a tough race to gauge (1) SB BETTYS IDEAL could step up in a really weak field at a price. (2) NA ZDROWIE doesn't look the best on paper but has been slightly improved in a new barn and faces softer. (8) SANDCASTLE GIRL would have been a heavy favorite against this group a short time ago but has been very disappointing for two months; command a price.
By Jeremey Day
DRF HARNESS
Race 6 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (55 - 107 / $210.60): SS TOMMY TURNER (5th)
Spot Play: JOYFUL GAME (6th)
Race 1
(4) DIAMOND DESIRE IVY pacer just missed last out after being blocked late and finds a weak field. (7) ARLO GRAM was a game winner showing good late kick last start. Watch to make sure the pacer isn't lagging at the start before using on top. (1a) BLACKJACK RIVNDEL owns only one career win but has been knocking on the door at this level.
Race 2
(6) A LOCAL BAND has shown slight improvement with a new driver and finds a suspect bunch. (3) AGENT BOOTH is a contender with a smooth trip; fires late. (5) BANDS ALEXIS gets sent out for hot connections but the filly was never put into the race last out. A good drive makes her the horse to beat.
Race 3
In a field full of question marks (2) ONCE A CHEATER beat a better bunch last start and just needs a similar effort. (7) PARTY IN THE PARK raced gamely last out showing a nice burst of speed. (1a) HURRICANE FINALE one part of an entry that is 0 for the last fifty-nine; use underneath.
Race 4
(2) MARZY BEARZY well bred filly has been facing much tougher and drops in for a tag. (8) MEET ME TONIGHT has lacked pop late in her last two but has won at this level consistently most of the year. (6) EARTHLY DESIRE could be the sleeper in the race and will be much closer turning for home.
Race 5
(5) SS TOMMY TURNER was sharp last out and will look to make it two straight for hot connections. (8) WOOP D DO BAZZLE gelding gets sent out for a barn that could be heating up late in the season. (6) JO JO SPUR was empty last out after racing gamely. If the pacer races back to the start prior he's a threat.
Race 6
(7) JOYFUL GAME mare just needs a good setup to have a say late. (5) CHILLY BREEZ filly was out gamed in her last start but has been first or second in five straight. (6) WESTERN BOUDOIR mare beat this same field last out at a price.
Race 7
In a field with few contenders (7) IT'S A BIG SECRET is one of few with upside in the race and showed a nice late kick in his last outing. (2) SPEED RACER gelding has been much better off the layoff despite tiring late in the mile last out. (1) CHIPPER scored the first victory of the year for the barn and should be in the mix with a similar effort.
Race 8
(2) SUN DREAM has won four of five and gets sent out for a new barn that is on a good roll. (1) KITTY O'BRIEN mare has a tough time pacing the turns but can pace up a storm late in the right scenario. (5) MOON BAY DANCER closed good ground late last out and should offer a nice price.
Race 9
In a tough race to gauge (1) SB BETTYS IDEAL could step up in a really weak field at a price. (2) NA ZDROWIE doesn't look the best on paper but has been slightly improved in a new barn and faces softer. (8) SANDCASTLE GIRL would have been a heavy favorite against this group a short time ago but has been very disappointing for two months; command a price.
Northfield: Wednesday 12/17 Analysis
By Ken Walters
DRF HARNESS
Best Bet: NITEROI OAKS (5th)
Spot Play: MOONTAN (6th)
Race 1
(1) HOLLYS SECRET has speed and rail and was second best in last. (2) CANDY J sat the trip in last and proved best in the lane. Can hardly have a bad trip from post with speed inside. (3) LEGACY CHIP has late speed and her best puts her in the late mix.
Race 2
(5) MRS BATTIN ships in to a winnable spot. Two back was big effort over an off track. Last was a beaten favorite failure off a good trip. Seems to be ready to give it a real shot and she gets the call. (2) A LADY OF GRACE has failed to step it up in the late stages last few outs but should be ideally placed. (6) TERROR IN MOTION was wide too early in last and tired as she got within range. Seldom wins but earns a look.
Race 3
(2) BOOKEM faces much weaker and looms strong. Need only stay flat to earn the nod. (6) GINGER TREE JIMMY faces weaker second over the track and earns respect off that alone. (4) MUSICAL PRINCE put in a decent qualifier two back and was tightened in last. Drops and could get lucky.
Race 4
(2) SHANNONS BOY SCOUT faces slightly weaker and when last seen this level proved to be second best off an uncovered trip. (5) GOODNITE WILBUR flashed some late speed in all recent but has yet to win this year. (3) TYMAL TRITON has also failed in his many quests for the winners circle this year but has shown some life last two.
Race 5
(3) NITEROI OAKS has been good last four and should be the one to beat. (2) FOUL BALL has speed and the inside. Has been second best last two and is the one to fear. (1) HIGH GEAR WINNER has the rail but little early speed.
Race 6
(6) MOONTAN has been facing better with limited success. When she faced this kind a few back, she won. (2) MORGANS MAJESTIC has speed and knows how to win but has to get over the breaking habit to give his best. (4) HELLO CARLO steps up after being a beaten favorite last three.
Race 7
(1) ALLAMERICAN DORA just missed two back facing this kind from same post going down the road. Took a tour of the track in last from post eight facing slightly better. Drops, draws the rail and has no excuse. (3) MACHNAZETROIS was a game uncovered second in most recent outing and will have to be dealt with. (6) ATTACKATOOFORU closed well from third over at 40-1 in last and should not be ignored.
Race 8
(1) BANANA SHOOTER won going away two back. Shipped in for last and just missed. Has the rail and is the one to beat. (3) FIXTHEDEFICIT has been good in all recent and will be there at the end. (4) MASERATI SEELSTER has late speed and could benefit from a speed duel but winning is not what he does best.
Race 9
(3) MR BAILEY has late speed. It is the Christmas season so what better time for for Mr. Bailey to deliver a wonderful life experience to his followers. (6) FOREVER HAPPY tried uncovered in last but failed to fire. Will be much more effective with a covered trip. (7) JUDE HALL tried the front end two back out fo town and ran out of gas. Returned and was in too deep. Fits better this level and should be considered.
Race 10
(2) HALLIN was a close second this level three back. Drops back down, draws well and has hit the board often this year. (3) A J CRESS won last with big finish and has closed strongly last three. He is the one to fear. (5) WELLSAIDANDONE ships in and faces weaker. Has won a bunch of races this yer and is the highest money earner on the season.
Race 11
(1) LUCKY REI has speed and the rail and is the one to catch. (2) HOOREI FOR FLASH should be on the top one's tail throughout. (6) HA HA was beaten by a horror trip in last and this beaten favorite may atone.
Race 12
(4) MAJOR SPEED drops into a field that collectively has been little in recent weeks. (1) WESTERN MARK has the rail and faces weaker. (9) ARTISTIC DREAMER has to clear early traffic but once done, he could be tough in the late stages.
Race 13
(5) QUINTAL BAYAMA faces slightly weaker and was second best at this level two back. Field begs to be beaten and he gets the call. (4) DANCE WITH DAN tried the front in last, faced pressure and gave way. Could be tighter this time out. (3) JAWORKSKI has been facing better in all recent.
Race 14
(6) SHOCKBYELECTRIC qualified a winner two back from off the pace. Got tightened in last before giving way. Seems to be rounding into form to take a win and has to earn a long look. (3) MUSIC AGAIN was game winner three back and closed decently in last. Seems to be the main threat in field of multi possibilities. (7) I RECKNO SO has to overcome the post but seems like a wakeup trying to happen. Do not throw him out.
Race 15
(5) TIELER BEA HOTSPUR faces little, has late speed and that should carry the day. (9) MCHOFFMAN has to get involved early but this is a weak bunch. This shipper would not have to be much to earn the victory. (1) CONSTANTINOBLE has the rail and is lightly raced this year.
By Ken Walters
DRF HARNESS
Best Bet: NITEROI OAKS (5th)
Spot Play: MOONTAN (6th)
Race 1
(1) HOLLYS SECRET has speed and rail and was second best in last. (2) CANDY J sat the trip in last and proved best in the lane. Can hardly have a bad trip from post with speed inside. (3) LEGACY CHIP has late speed and her best puts her in the late mix.
Race 2
(5) MRS BATTIN ships in to a winnable spot. Two back was big effort over an off track. Last was a beaten favorite failure off a good trip. Seems to be ready to give it a real shot and she gets the call. (2) A LADY OF GRACE has failed to step it up in the late stages last few outs but should be ideally placed. (6) TERROR IN MOTION was wide too early in last and tired as she got within range. Seldom wins but earns a look.
Race 3
(2) BOOKEM faces much weaker and looms strong. Need only stay flat to earn the nod. (6) GINGER TREE JIMMY faces weaker second over the track and earns respect off that alone. (4) MUSICAL PRINCE put in a decent qualifier two back and was tightened in last. Drops and could get lucky.
Race 4
(2) SHANNONS BOY SCOUT faces slightly weaker and when last seen this level proved to be second best off an uncovered trip. (5) GOODNITE WILBUR flashed some late speed in all recent but has yet to win this year. (3) TYMAL TRITON has also failed in his many quests for the winners circle this year but has shown some life last two.
Race 5
(3) NITEROI OAKS has been good last four and should be the one to beat. (2) FOUL BALL has speed and the inside. Has been second best last two and is the one to fear. (1) HIGH GEAR WINNER has the rail but little early speed.
Race 6
(6) MOONTAN has been facing better with limited success. When she faced this kind a few back, she won. (2) MORGANS MAJESTIC has speed and knows how to win but has to get over the breaking habit to give his best. (4) HELLO CARLO steps up after being a beaten favorite last three.
Race 7
(1) ALLAMERICAN DORA just missed two back facing this kind from same post going down the road. Took a tour of the track in last from post eight facing slightly better. Drops, draws the rail and has no excuse. (3) MACHNAZETROIS was a game uncovered second in most recent outing and will have to be dealt with. (6) ATTACKATOOFORU closed well from third over at 40-1 in last and should not be ignored.
Race 8
(1) BANANA SHOOTER won going away two back. Shipped in for last and just missed. Has the rail and is the one to beat. (3) FIXTHEDEFICIT has been good in all recent and will be there at the end. (4) MASERATI SEELSTER has late speed and could benefit from a speed duel but winning is not what he does best.
Race 9
(3) MR BAILEY has late speed. It is the Christmas season so what better time for for Mr. Bailey to deliver a wonderful life experience to his followers. (6) FOREVER HAPPY tried uncovered in last but failed to fire. Will be much more effective with a covered trip. (7) JUDE HALL tried the front end two back out fo town and ran out of gas. Returned and was in too deep. Fits better this level and should be considered.
Race 10
(2) HALLIN was a close second this level three back. Drops back down, draws well and has hit the board often this year. (3) A J CRESS won last with big finish and has closed strongly last three. He is the one to fear. (5) WELLSAIDANDONE ships in and faces weaker. Has won a bunch of races this yer and is the highest money earner on the season.
Race 11
(1) LUCKY REI has speed and the rail and is the one to catch. (2) HOOREI FOR FLASH should be on the top one's tail throughout. (6) HA HA was beaten by a horror trip in last and this beaten favorite may atone.
Race 12
(4) MAJOR SPEED drops into a field that collectively has been little in recent weeks. (1) WESTERN MARK has the rail and faces weaker. (9) ARTISTIC DREAMER has to clear early traffic but once done, he could be tough in the late stages.
Race 13
(5) QUINTAL BAYAMA faces slightly weaker and was second best at this level two back. Field begs to be beaten and he gets the call. (4) DANCE WITH DAN tried the front in last, faced pressure and gave way. Could be tighter this time out. (3) JAWORKSKI has been facing better in all recent.
Race 14
(6) SHOCKBYELECTRIC qualified a winner two back from off the pace. Got tightened in last before giving way. Seems to be rounding into form to take a win and has to earn a long look. (3) MUSIC AGAIN was game winner three back and closed decently in last. Seems to be the main threat in field of multi possibilities. (7) I RECKNO SO has to overcome the post but seems like a wakeup trying to happen. Do not throw him out.
Race 15
(5) TIELER BEA HOTSPUR faces little, has late speed and that should carry the day. (9) MCHOFFMAN has to get involved early but this is a weak bunch. This shipper would not have to be much to earn the victory. (1) CONSTANTINOBLE has the rail and is lightly raced this year.
