Wednesday 11/26/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 3:55 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$6500 - CD 4YO & UP NW $3500 LAST 5 STARTS HORSES RACING FOR A PURSE GREATER THAN $10,501 LAST START NE - STAKES, CLOSERS & 10 HORSE BONUS MONEY EXCLUDED


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 BS SURGIN DON 10/1


# 4 CHIMON 3/1


# 6 S J BETTER DAYS 8/5


All signs point to BS SURGIN DON for the play and could score at a price in here. He has respectable class numbers, averaging 87. Should be considered for a bet for this race. Have to make Merriman the wager here if only for the last thirty days win percent. Big chance for the trip to the winner's circle. This contender could get the victory here beginning from the The Meadows 5 hole. CHIMON - The brain trust will always toss in a solid standardbred from the 4 post here at The Meadows, keep in mind for your exotics. S J BETTER DAYS - Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a big 81 speed figure. Major player. Extremely profitable driver/conditioner team, with a 14 ROI when working with each other.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream West

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 84

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 DRAMA KING 5/2


# 4 COALMINER 9/2


# 6 CARAMELO 15/1


DRAMA KING looks quite good to best this field. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a contender. In this field, this entrant is ranked high in earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. Is tough not to look at based on speed figs which have been competitive - 69 avg - of late. COALMINER - Has run solidly when moving a dirt sprint race. This animal must be played at the expected big odds. CARAMELO - He has strong class ratings, averaging 79, and has to be considered for this event. Reliable average speed figs in dirt sprint races make this equine a definite contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 ZINNIA 20/1


# 10 PLENTY OF HONOUR 7/2


# 8 QUICKLIME 3/1


I think ZINNIA is a very good choice and is a very good value bet given the line. Has a very solid shot in this competition if you like back class. PLENTY OF HONOUR - Sharp profits have been scored by bettors using this rider and trainer twosome recently. Has very good front-end speed and ought to fare very well against this group of horses. QUICKLIME - Is worth taking a close look at and may be a bet - strong Speed Figures (77 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. May best this group of animals here, showing quite good figures of late.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #4 - Post: 1:47pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 HANGINGWITHSONNY (ML=7/2)
#5 MISS MACARENA (ML=3/1)


HANGINGWITHSONNY - Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a solid race on Nov 10th. Speed is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should run well today. MISS MACARENA - Taking a trip down the class scale; has the power to make her presence felt. The 72 last race speed rating looks sound on paper. Last out, finished fourth on a track listed as good at Aqueduct. Has to do better right here. This filly has been training well, and the recent bullet work says she's primed for a top effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CRYSTAL ROCKET (ML=5/2), #8 OPENER (ML=7/2),

CRYSTAL ROCKET - The Brain cautions me to keep away from ponies in sprint events that haven't finished in the money in sprint events recently. OPENER - Can't bet on this questionable contender in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance event lately. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed figure was disappointing when compared with today's class figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #6 HANGINGWITHSONNY on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 30

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 BELLZEE DEAR (ML=4/1)
#7 ROADSIDE BUDDY (ML=3/1)


BELLZEE DEAR - Johnson drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to figure that this animal will be tough to beat at this level. Navarro and Johnson perform well when they join forces. It's hard to beat a +122 return on investment for a jockey and handler. This speedy sort is shortening up today. Should enhance her winning probability. As the only front runner in the race, I expect this filly to be long gone. You have to like that most recent race speed figure, 29, which is the highest last race fig of this bunch. ROADSIDE BUDDY - I'm anticipating this horse to run a big one this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 KELA'S BAD GIRL (ML=5/2), #1 SPACE ANGEL (ML=5/1), #4 DOWHATCHAGOTTADO (ML=8/1),

KELA'S BAD GIRL - Would have to advance off that sixth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. SPACE ANGEL - This filly hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in short distance contests. No picnic to bet on her in this event. DOWHATCHAGOTTADO - No good results for this mount in a sprint race over the last couple months tells me that this mare is in a tough situation This rallier should have a rough go of it to get there in time with the scarcity of early speed in this race.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BELLZEE DEAR - I always check out the horse that is tops in earnings per start. If she meets my requirements I make a bet.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #9 BELLZEE DEAR to win if you can get at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [7,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #1 - AQUEDUCT - 12:20 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $50,000.00 CLAIMING $46,000.00 PURSE

#2 CYNICAL STORM
#4 BETTY BING BING
#1 FLARING
#5 KATE IS A TEN

#2 CYNICAL STORM is the overall speed leader in; this claiming field, and has excellent early speed to compliment for this sprint, takes a BIG class drop (-15), and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her three career starts to date, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her first two starts. #4 BETTY BING BING qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony,", is the pace profile leader, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

There is a $91,575 Pick 6 carryover going into Wednesday’s card at Aqueduct after the wager went unresolved over the weekend. The question mark heading into the wager may be the weather, as there is rain and snow in the forecast.

I am assuming the two turf races (races five and seven) will be shifted to the main track and there seems a good likelihood we could be dealing with a wet racetrack today.

We had a good day on Sunday with five winners on top on the nine race card. The winners paid $13.40, $5.20, $7.00, $6.30 and $14.40. My Best Plays Report for Sunday with eight places from Aqueduct and Del Mar did even better, with six winners on top in the eight races.

The Pick 6 starts in the fourth race today with a post time of 1:47 (ET). The race is a six-furlong race for $20,000 maiden claimers that drew a field of eight.

The trickiest races may be the two races that are scheduled to go on turf. A full field was entered in the fifth race, a one-mile state bred maiden special eight race. An interesting first timer is the Christophe Clement trained Viva Malala, who looks like she is bred to handle a wet track and is a half to stakes winner Icabad Crane.

The other race carded for turf is the seventh race, a second level state bred optional claimer that drew a full field along with a pair of also eligible.

The Chad Brown trained Neck of the Moon was beaten just a neck in her last outing going seven furlongs on turf. The filly ran decent in a third place finish in her lone go over an off track.

A reminder we have racing on Thanksgiving Day. The feature on the nine race card is the $300,000 Fall HIghweight (G3) which drew a field of 10. I will have selections for the race here in tomorrow’s column.


Here is today’s opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $50,000N3L (12:20 ET)
2 Cynical Storm 8-5
4 Betty Bing Bing 2-1
5 Kate Is a Ten 3-1
1 Flaring 6-1

Analysis: Cynical Storm tracked the early pace and tired to finish fifth last out against Alw-2 optional claimers at Philly in her first start off a year layoff. The winner of that race was Sweet Abandon, who came back to beat $10,000 starter allowance foes in her next outing on Nov. 24. She should be tighter second off the bench for former Levine assistant Cannizzo.

Betty Bing Bing pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out at Santa Anita. She was claimed out of the race by the Levine barn that is 21% winners first off the claim and has had plenty of success with horse from these owners shipping in from SoCal. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and a decent enough off track pedigree.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 2 / 4,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 OClm $40,000N2X (3:14 ET)
4 Neck of the Moon 3-1
7 Lucky Nancy E. 5-1
13 Pennymine 9-5
14 Alwaysinstilettos 4-1

Analysis: Neck of the Moon may end up scratching if this comes off the turf as expected, but this gal comes in here sharp and she ran okay in a third in the slop three back. Last out she came with a good late rally, had a short lead and battled on gamely, beaten just a head for the top spot going seven furlongs over yielding footing. She is sharp and has Brown in her corner, the trainer having a solid meeting hitting at a 27% clip.

Lucky Nancy E. is coming off a third place finish last out at this level, no match for the top pair over a wet track in a race washed off the turf. Two back on turf she set the early fractions and weakened late to finish fourth, beaten 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot. She has landed in the money in three of her four trips over wet track including beating state bred Alw-1 foes in the mud by nine lengths at the Spa this summer. She is going to be in the mix early in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 4,7,13,14
TRI: 4,7 / 4,7,13,14 / 4,5,7,13,14

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R3: #5 Blackwater Charly 12-1
R3: #2 Unbridled Hero 8-1
R5: #6 Viva Malala 8-1
R9: #12 We Fly Private 12-1
R9: #5 Heading to Boca 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Wednesday 11/26 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS


Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (49 - 97 / $193.90): FLYING ROCKET (8th)

Spot Play: COLE BLUE (9th)


Race 1

(5) MOON BAY DANCER gets a huge driver change in a really weak field. (1) TWILIGHT DELIGHT gets a provisional pilot but is capable of a good effort against this group. (7) RJ'S IRISH LASSIE is 0 for twenty on the year but will offer a big price underneath.

Race 2

(5) MAYFAIR SOPHIE three-year-old filly trotter was a very nice winner last out. If she minds her manners she's on the ticket. (7) BANDS ALEXIS will look to make it three wins in as many starts for a new barn. (3) A LOCAL BAND rarely wins but has been knocking on the door in two straight.

Race 3

In a field with few contenders (4) LYNRAE JAZMIN should offer the better price and owns the fastest win in the field. (6) BUBBALA has been inconsistent as of late but should be a player with a smooth trip. (5) YOUROLDLOV-ELETTER has raced gamely in two straight but does bump up in class.

Race 4

In a suspect field full of question marks (8) SPEED RACER was the drivers choice and exits a solid qualifier closing good ground the last half mile. (5) FINNTASTIC just raced evenly last out sitting the rail but finds a really weak bunch. (7) LITTLE MAN MORAND is one of few with a win at this level but really folded easily off of very soft fractions last start; command a price.

Race 5

(8) JOYFUL GAME mare has beaten this bunch with consistency all year long. (4) STAGE STAR gets sent out for a high percentage barn and has flashed ability earlier in the year. (6) BABYSHOEBUYER just missed at this level last out but needs more to hit the top spot.

Race 6

(4) THREE NEW DAWNS doesn't look like much on paper and should offer a monster price. The pacer could be ready for a better effort third start over the track. (5) REALLY LUCKY well bred pacer has recently shown signs of turning it around; threat. (3) NIP PAN TUCK is 0 for the year but finds a wide open and evenly matched field.

Race 7

(7) OUR MISS LILY mare has won three of four at this level since the layoff. (5) LADYBONES just missed to the top choice last out and will probably offer the better price. (2) DONTMESSWITHANGEL would need a lot of racing luck to upset; use underneath.

Race 8

(8) FLYING ROCKET could race up to his name racing for new connections who are lethal in this scenario. The pacer takes a huge drop in competition. (2) BLUE RIVER just raced evenly last out but has been knocking on the door at this level. (1) GLIDED TOWARDS ME looks to be in line for a nice ground saving trip.

Race 9

(10) COLE BLUE mare owns a class edge on the field when right but will need to find a way into the race. (1) GET THE TERROR was the driver's choice and is capable of a good effort. (9) MIND ERASER was brutalized last out after missing the gate but has shown a big burst of speed.

Race 10

(2) AJ GET'S THE MONEY just missed at this level last out and owns good early gate speed. (6) WOOP D DO BAZZLE went a big effort being used multiple times racing gamely all the way to the wire. (7) RUSSELL L gelding probably owns the best late kick in the race but needs a good setup.

Race 11

(7) INDIAN CREEK KATIE gets a big driver change and should offer a fair price. (6) MEET ME TONIGHT filly has been progressing throughout the year and drops back down to a much easier level after being competitive up in class. (1) VAL'S WAY filly is one of few threats in the race and gets the best post.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 11/26 Analysis
By Ken Walters

DRF HARNESS


Best Bet: STAR MASTER FOX (5th)

Spot Play: DR JACK’S SHACK (13th)


Race 1

(6) MUCKMUCK WOODCHUCK made a big move to the third panel to loom boldly but flattened. Has to earn a look in field begging to be beat. (7) BAR NONE will have to come from off the pace off a covered trip. (9) CANDY J seldom wins but should be able to avoid traffic from second tier with speed in front of her.

Race 2

(5) ITS SPIDER has flashed some late speed from time to time and gets the call with Merriman. (4) GALLOWS POLE closed well in last and current form may be all it takes in here. (9) LATE NIGHT TERROR failed to fire in last but if he escapes the post there is enough life in him to earn a share.

Race 3

(9) ABBEYCREST should be along in time with a late rally if she gets any kind of decent trip. (7) BUILDING WEALTH was weathered out last week but prior was second best effort. (2) JEN ROCKS will give it all she has from post two.

Race 4

(9) LEE A BRYANT sucked along pretty good from same post in last facing slightly better. Same trip and any kind of improvement can get him home. (6) FOREVER HAPPY finished well in last, faces slightly weaker and with the right trip he can upset. (7) HERE COMES WHITEY finished with strong rally from a game second in latest and can be tough if he gets a trip but the post hurts.

Race 5

(3) STAR MASTER FOX has no excuse if he fails in here. (1) RACE ME ROCKY should be the lone threat from the rail. (7) BACARDI PUNCH was wiped out in last and bothered in race before that. Tough-luck youngster has not shown much but he is due for some racing luck.

Race 6

(1) ALLAMERICAN DORA draws the rail and that is a major change. (5) SHAKINMYMONIMAKER closed well two back and was burdened by the second tier, snow and a speedy winner in last. (4) GILLA DREAM moves to the middle of the pack. Has yet to win this year but has finished with pace in most of last races.

Race 7

(4) BROULE HANOVER was used twice in last and suffered the consequences. Should be tighter this evening. Two back was a brave second with a horrible trip. (3) SOUTHWIND MAIZE broke in last. Won prior with strong rally. (1) A J CRESS has the pole and veteran will be close as far as he goes.

Race 8

(6) LUCKEY REI seeks third straight and faces same kind. (5) FLIRTIN closed stoutly to win two back. Toured the track in last. Ships in primed for best. (3) SONICPEDIA has broke two of last three and needs to overcome the new habit.

Race 9

(1) PICK YOUR POISON looks to get it done from the pole shipping in after facing much better last few outings. (3) GO HERBIE GO has two wins last three and has the late speed to be a threat if top one is not up to the challenge. (4) ULTIMATE WINNER has been earning money with all out hooves in recent and earns a long look.

Race 10

(1) MAJOR AT HEART won last from the rail. Faces better but best can get it done. (5) MYSTICAL BROTHERS won last from the pocket and has been battling last three outings. (7) FREDSABULLDOG is always in the hunt.

Race 11

(6) OIL SLICKER stepped up for last and enjoyed the exercise. Drops back down with winning on his mind. (2) HOOREI FOR FLASH sucked along from the rail with a pocket trip and finished second in last. (1) DONTBEACHATME shipped in for last and rallied along the rail too late to get it done. Do not ignore in well matched field.

Race 12

(2) DARLING ANGEL has little to beat and little in the way of an excuse to offer if she doesn't. (5) CAMPSIDE ANGEL has done nothing recently to warrant this kind of look but has more wins this year than the rest of the field combined and that needs to be noted. (9) PEPSTEPN PENELOPE has never had the winning habit but does possess the picking up a check habit and should clear early traffic.

Race 13

(6) DR JACKS SHACK has flashed some modest late speed in most recent and can pull it off with the right trip. (1) JALAPENO has been close in all recent but failed to spice it up when needed. (2) MUSIC AGAIN won last and has to be considered.

Race 14

(4) AINTNOFOOLSGOLD shipped in for last and toured the track. Faces slightly weaker and should fire his best shot this evening. (1) KING RICHARD has the pole but needs to show more of the heart of the lion if he hopes to score. (3) LARRY CLARK will do his best and may land a share.

Race 15

(9) EARLYMORNINARRIVAL has to overcome the second tier but his last was huge closing effort that ran out of track. (6) EXPRESSO FORTE has been close battling in most recent and can cause some late closing concern if the choice fails to fire. (2) AMERICAN PILOT crashed and burned in latest trying the front end. Prior was no luck parked the mile effort. He has what it takes but putting it together may need a little work.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Miss Macarena, 3-1
(7th) Neck of the Moon, 3-1

Churchill Downs (3rd) Sierra Delta, 3-1
(5th) Sealark, 5-1

Delta Downs (3rd) Captain Tyree, 7-2
(7th) Nordic Bull, 7-2

Finger Lakes (1st) Victorious Song, 4-1
(5th) Starry Eyed Renate, 4-1


Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Tormenta de Oro, 3-1
(10th) Coalminer, 9-2


Hawthorne (1st) Autumn Dreams, 3-1
(9th) Show'em Pop, 7-2


Laurel Park (2nd) Happy Talk, 3-1
(5th) Hurricane Creek, 5-1


Mahoning Valley (3rd) Say Hey Ellly Mae, 6-1
(7th) Privacy Invasion, 7-2


Mountaineer (1st) Totee, 7-2
(4th) Afleet Chill, 6-1


Woodbine (4th) Malbec, 4-1
(5th) Be Mind Phil, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Wednesday's free selection: Louisville Cardinals - 22

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: California -14 Over Cal Poly

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY:Take CALIFORNIA -14½ over Cal-Poly

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Wednesday's Free Selection: Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Lakers over 199 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Platinum Plays

Free Pick: Utah St Aggies -2 Over UC Davis

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Brooklyn -8' NBA

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: Utah State -2' College BB

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Wednesday: Take MASSACHUSETTS -5 over Northeastern

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Wednesday: California Golden Bears - 14 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr. Vegas

Free Wednesday NBA Play from Mr. Vegas: 11/26: 7:35 PM ET

(711) TORONTO RAPTORS VS (712) ATLANTA HAWKS

Take: over

Reason: Mr Vegas FREE:

Toronto has become one of the beasts of the East, posting a 12-2 record this seaosn. The Raptors have done it with a well rounded team and deep bench. They have also been pretty good to bettors, posting a 9-4 ATS mark. On the road they have been pretty good too, with a 3-1 mark both S/U and ATS and 3-1 O/U. The Hawks have not been as good at just 6-5 S/U and 5-6 ATS. Al Horsford is back, which is great news for the Hawks. But they are still not a very good defensive team, evidenced by their 109.1 team defensive efficiency number (108.4 at home). That's above the league average of 107.3. The Raptors have been a under team of late, with three of the last four going under. Still, on the road this team has very good efficiency numbers on offense (115.3) and a pace above the league average. The Hawks are 4-1 O/U at home, partly thanks to a very good offensive rating of 115.5 and poor defensive rating of 108.4. Six of the last nine meetings between these clubs have gone OVER and I look for that again here on Wednesday. Take the OVER.