THE SPORTS ADVISORS
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Toledo (4-5 SU and ATS) at Central Michigan (7-2, 6-2 ATS)
Central Michigan looks to bounce back from just its second loss of the season and move another step closer to the Mid-American Conference West Division title when it hosts the Rockets at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Toledo is coming off consecutive upset losses to MAC foes Temple (40-24 as a one-point home favorite) and Miami, Ohio (31-24 as a five-point road chalk). The Rockets field one of the worst defenses in Division I-A, giving up 31 points or more in eight of their nine games this year and nine of 10 going back to the end of last season. Overall, Toledo is surrendering 37.4 points and 425 total yards per game, including 177.8 rushing yards per contest.
The Chippewas have been idle since Halloween, when their seven-game winning streak came to a halt with a 31-10 loss at Boston College as a 5½-point road underdog. Central Michigan gave up a season-high in points while the 10 points was the lowest offensive output since a season-opening 19-6 loss at Arizona. The Chips (5-0, 4-1 ATS in conference) lead the MAC’s West Division by one game over Northern Illinois, and they’ve won their three home games by a combined score of 152-29, outgaining those three opponents by an average of 258 ypg (454-196).
Central Michigan has owned this rivalry lately, winning the last four meetings following a 10-game winning streak by the Rockets. Last year, the Chippewas went to Toledo and squeaked out a 24-23 win, but failed to cover as a 3½-point road favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run against the Rockets as the underdog improved to 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The SU winner is 11-0 ATS in Toledo’s last 11 games and 11-2 ATS in Central Michigan’s last 13.
Both teams feature strong quarterbacks. Toledo’s Aaron Opelt is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,863 yards with 15 TDs and six INTs, while Chippewas senior Dan LeFevour is connecting at a 68.8 percent rate for 1,848 yards with 16 TDs and five INTs.
The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after SU loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-covers, but otherwise they’re in pointspread ruts of 8-19 on the road, 5-12 as a road underdog and 1-4 after a bye.
Other than a 7-15-3 ATS slump in November, the Chippewas are riding positive ATS streaks of 36-15-3 overall, 16-4-1 at home, 22-7-2 in conference, 22-8-2 as a favorite, 13-3 as a home favorite, 4-1 as a favorite of more than 10 points (all at home), 6-1-1 after a bye and 16-5-2 versus teams with a losing record.
Toledo comes into this contest on “under” runs of 8-1 against winning teams, 11-5-1 as an underdog, 3-1-1 after a bye and 6-0 as a double-digit underdog. The under is also 4-1 in Central Michigan’s last five overall and 7-3 in its last 10 as a favorite. Finally, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN and UNDER
NBA
Cleveland (4-3, 3-4 ATS) at Orlando (6-2, 5-3 ATS)
The Cavaliers get their first crack at the Magic since being upset in last year’s Eastern Conference finals as LeBron James and Co. resume a three-game road trip with a stop at Amway Arena.
Since opening the season with consecutive upset losses to Boston at home and Toronto on the road, Cleveland has won four of its last five games. The one defeat was Thursday’s 86-85 home setback to Chicago, but the Cavs rebounded the following night with a 100-91 win at New York as an eight-point road favorite. Cleveland has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last six games.
Dwight Howard (15 points, 10 rebounds) and three teammates scored in double figures Tuesday as Orlando capped a brief two-game road swing with a 93-81 win at Charlotte as a four-point favorite, which followed Sunday’s embarrassing 102-74 loss at Oklahoma City as a six-point chalk. The Magic are unbeaten in three home contests (2-1 ATS), averaging 117.3 points per game (51.8 percent shooting) and allowing 103 ppg (48.8 percent).
The Magic eliminated the heavily favored Cavaliers in six games in last spring’s Eastern Conference Finals, going 5-1 ATS. Orlando also went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against Cleveland in the regular season and has cashed in 10 of the last 11 meetings since the 2007-08 season, including six straight at Amway Arena. Going back further, the Magic are on 20-8-1 ATS roll against Cleveland. Finally, the home team went 8-1 SU (6-3 ATS) in the nine head-to-head clashes last year.
The Cavs have covered in eight of their last 11 when coming off three or more days of rest, but they’re otherwise in ATS slumps of 4-9-1 overall going back to last year’s playoff series against Orlando, 3-9-1 against the Eastern Conference, 2-6-1 against the Southeast Division and 1-4 on Wednesday.
The Magic, who are 2-3 ATS since starting the season with three straight spread-covers, are on positive pointspread stretches of 10-4 against Central Division opponents and 11-3 against Eastern Conference foes.
For the Cavaliers, the “under” is on runs of 6-0 overall, 8-2 on the road, 5-0 against the Eastern Conference and 5-2 on Wednesday. Conversely, Orlando carries “over” trends of 6-2 at home, 6-1 against the Eastern Conference, 4-0 on Wednesday and 6-1 against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 6-1 in the last seven series meetings overall and 13-6-1 in the last 20 battles in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and OVER
Dallas (5-2 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (3-3 SU and ATS)
The Spurs and Mavericks get together for the first time since last year’s opening-round Western Conference playoff series, with Dallas making the short trek to AT&T Center.
Dallas heads to San Antonio off of last night’s 121-103 rout of the Rockets as a 6½-point home favorite, as Jason Terry (24 points) and Dirk Nowitzki (23) were among six players to score in double figures. The Mavericks have won and covered five of six since a season-opening upset loss to Washington, and they’ve scored 107, 129 points and 121 points in their last three games after averaging just 93.5 ppg in their first four contests. However, Dallas also has given up more than 100 points in each of its last three games after surrendering 85, 84 and 80 in its previous three.
Playing without All-Stars Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, the Spurs still managed to snap a two-game SU and ATS slide Monday, getting past Toronto 131-124 as a 4½-point home favorite. San Antonio entered the fourth quarter down by two points, but outscored the Raptors 38-29 in the final stanza. Manu Ginobili led the way with a season-high 36 points, while Richard Jefferson (24 points) and seldom-used guard George Hill (22) also had huge games.
Dallas knocked its division rivals out of the playoffs in five games last spring, going 4-1 ATS. Including four regular-season meetings, the Mavericks went 6-3 SU and ATS against the Spurs last year, including 3-2 SU and ATS at the AT&T Center. Additionally, Dallas is on an 11-3 ATS run in San Antonio, but the favorite covered in six of the final eight clashes in 2008-09.
The SU winner is 8-0 ATS in Dallas’ games this year and 6-0 ATS in San Antonio’s contests. Going back to last year, the winner has cashed in 11 straight Spurs games and 21 of the Mavericks’ last 23 outings. Finally, the SU winner has gotten the money in each of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry.
Dallas is on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 9-3 on Wednesday and 6-2 against Southwest Division opponents. San Antonio has now covered in four of its last five at home, but is otherwise in ATS slumps of 1-5 against winning teams, 2-5 against the Western Conference, 2-7 versus division rivals and 4-11 on Wednesday.
The under has cashed in seven of the Mavs’ last eight when they play on back-to-back nights, but the over for Dallas is on runs of 8-3 on the road, 8-3 on Wednesday and 6-1 versus the Southwest Division. Likewise, the Spurs are on a slew of “over” streaks, including 9-3 overall, 11-1 at home, 4-1 when playing on one day of rest, 5-1 on Wednesday and 6-1 against Southwest Division opponents. Finally, five of the last six series battles between these clubs last year – including three straight in San Antonio – topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER