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Northfield: Wednesday 10/8 Analysis
By Ken Walters

DRF HARNESS


Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: MR GREEN (11th)

Spot Play: HAT (5th)


Race 1

(3) MOMA JEANS CROWN ships back off a win out of town and fits well versus these. (1) BANDS SUPERSTAR has the rail and should be forwardly placed throughout. (4) CINCINNATI MYSTERIES faces slightly weaker and draws a decent post.

Race 2

(2) RAMEMBER was parked for life in last and rallied well two back. Looks about as solid as you can get. (1) TIDBIT has speed and the rail. Went down the road in last but was nipped at the wire. (3) AT DAYBREAK moves in and was a good third two back this level.

Race 3

(2) BOUNTY has been good last few and has to be considered this level. (1) SEEKING JEANIE showed more last time out but then she didn't break. (5) MOLLYS TROLLEY was in position to be a late threat in last but broke. Can get a piece with right trip.

Race 4

(6) L H REMACHABLE races third off the qualifier and has been tightened enough to give it his best shot. (4) ITS SPIDER has shown some late speed in most recent. (5) ANSWER THE BELL was second best in last with good late foot.

Race 5

(8) HAT gets the nod by process of elimination and if that is the criteria might as well go for a long shot as she takes a modest drop in second over the track. (2) DAY TO DAY wired the field in qualifer and might be ready for these. (1) TRIPOLI draws the rail and should stay close but has not won a race since Pluto was a planet.

Race 6

(2) ANNIES MASTER drops in well matched group and seems a few steps faster than main competition. (1) FUTURE PAST has been pretty good last few and is the one to fear in the late stages. (7) JEN ROCKS has finished well last few but the post hurts.

Race 7

(2) BLISSFUL JESSIE gets a narrow vote in another well matched field of equals. (9) CIN CARDLE won last and can be the main threat. (6) AINTGOTALOTON was too back in last to be real. Disregard the effort and give her another chance to be close.

Race 8

(3) SONICPEDIA was burdened by the eight hole in last. Prior was wire to wire score from pole. (8) JEREME ROCKS has to overcome the post but would be the one to fear with right trip. (6) GUNNIN FORAFIGHT won last from off the pace. Steps up a bit but should be considered.

Race 9

(1) CASHONTHEROCS has speed, the rail and winning streak. (2) NEELYS BOY ships in off some good front-stepping efforts. (8) MISS RILEY has to find a seat on the rail but the post hurts.

Race 10

(2) MOSH PIT was game on the front end two back and rallied late in last. Seems sharp enough to be the one to beat. (3) PRIME TIME POPPA will be forwardly placed but has been weakening in the lane. (1) WELCOME WAGON has found out how to win this year after an o-fer last season.

Race 11

(3) MR GREEN has closed well last three winning two of them. (7) PAMSFOOLISHTERROR has late speed but winning has escaped him. Should have more wins under his belt this year. (8) CODYTHECLOWN was scratched from last but prior was good close effort.

Race 12

(2) HIGH GEAR WINNER moves in and was an odds on winner three back. Amazing how horse never wins but one day he is 20 cents on the dollar and romps. (6) MUCHMUCH WOODCHUCK seeks third straight and has to be considered the one to fear. (1) CONTECH has speed and the rail and would be no suprise.

Race 13

(4) LEE A BRYANT drops and has enough late speed to cause these trouble in the lane. (2) BLUE PUNCH made the move to the lead in last but was second best. Same move will be hard to beat tonight. (3) CATALINA KID takes a modest drop in company and was second back with a pocket trip.

Race 14

(2) BRYNDANS TOY won last and cannot be looked past in here. (1) SEE YA LATER DUDE goes well from the rail. (5) DIGGERS REST N has good late speed but only one win last two seasons.

Race 15

(3) OH WHATA GUY flashed some late speed two back and draws well. (1) VANISCAPE has the rail and has little to beat. (4) MELVINS DREAM has speed and will be the one to catch.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (3rd) Ferzetti, 4-1
(9th) Maura's Pass, 3-1

Charles Town (6th) Missy Kim, 4-1
(7th) Dr. Drew, 3-1

Delaware Park (2nd) Carson's Ten, 3-1
(4th) Book the Crook, 4-1


Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Reggae Boy, 3-1
(7th) Discreet Romance, 3-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Ifoundmy Mojo, 3-1
(8th) Zippidy Do Hah, 4-1


Indiana Grand (8th) Forever Sure, 3-1
(9th) Daylightem Rich, 9-2


Keeneland (3rd) Errant, 6-1
(7th) Joy Boy, 7-2


Laurel Park (3rd) Cheypooter, 9-2
(9th) Troubled Waters, 3-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Rosa Pantera, 3-1
(4th) Rephrase, 4-1


Penn National (1st) Royal Avenger, 7-2
(5th) Nana's Winner, 9-2


Remington (5th) Our Hope, 7-2
(9th) Bankinonhank, 7-2


Thistledown (1st) Strategic Hope, 4-1
(6th) Hey Bid, 3-1


Woodbine (6th) Silent Auction, 3-1
(7th) Eyes Her Man, 5-1
 
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NHL

Hot teams
Not a lot to go on this early in the season, but after a week or so, we'll have good knowledge in this space every day until the Stanley Cup is hoisted next spring.

Cold teams

Series records
-- Montreal won five of last seven games against the Maple Leafs; Canadiens won five of last seven visits to Toronto.
-- Bruins won three in row, 13 of last 16 games against Philly.
-- Kings beat San Jose 4-3 in playoffs LY, after being down 3-0; Sharks lost ten of their last 11 visits to Staples Center.
-- Canucks won their last seven games with Calgary.

Totals
-- Eight of last nine Montreal-Toronto games went over total.
-- Last four Bruin-Flyer games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1 in last seven San Jose-Los Angeles games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Canucks' last five visits to Saddledome.
 
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Jim Feist

Comp NHL Pick for Wednesday, October 8, 2014: 10:05 PM

(5) SAN JOSE SHARKS VS (6) LOS ANGELES KINGS

Take: OVER the Total

Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, October 8, 2014 is in the NHL opening night contest between the San Jose Sharks and defending Stanley Cup Champion LA Kings. Opening Night Ice Insider: Most experts say it's nearly impossible to win back-to-back Stanley Cups in this salary cap NHL, but don't tell that to the LA Kings. The Kings overcame insurmountable odds last season in the playoffs to win the Cup, so to them nothing is impossible. Drew Doughty has emerged as the premier defenseman in the NHL and likely the backbone of this LA club. Doughty now has two Stanley Cups and two Olympic medals. The salary cap did hit the Kings though as they lose Willie Mitchell to Florida. Tonight the Kings face the Sharks, a team they shocked in the playoffs last year coming from a 0-3 deficit to win the series. The question is, will that collapse in the playoffs carry over to this season? The Sharks have gone to a younger cast this season, ridding themselves of veterans like Dan Boyle, Martin Havlat and Brad Stuart. This Sharks club will still be good, but have to see how they respond to last year's postseason. Both these teams have proven they can score goals, with the Sharks going over in five of their last seven and the Kings posting a 7-2-2 Over/Under mark their last 11. Jonathan Quick is still recovering from some offseason surgery so he may not be on top of his game yet. The last five meetings in LA has produced a 3-0-2 Over/Under/Push record and a 5-1-1 Over/Under/Push mark the last seven overall. With the total sitting at 5.0, that's a number I like to go over since 2-2 guarantees us at least a push or win. Your Bonus Play is on the OVER.
 
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Ben Burns

Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Bonus Play Montreal Canadiens

These longtime rivals faced each other on opening night, at Montreal, last season. The Leafs won that fight-filled affair by a 4-3 margin.

In fact, that was the fourth year in a row that the Leafs began the season by beating the Canadiens.

I feel the Canadiens have a solid shot at finally returning the favor to start this season.

Every season is different and both these teams have some new faces.

That said, Montreal was the only Canadian team to make the playoffs last season and has high hopes for this year.

Meanwhile, the Leafs were atrocious at their own end of the ice last season. They ranked 28th in killing penalties (78.4%) which helped lead to a poor 3.07 GAA mark, 26th worst in the league.

The Habs, who are taking a new “four alternate captain” approach, are well aware the the Leafs start every season by beating them. I expect that to be a motivating factor for them.

Starting on the road, away from the intense pressure in Montreal, may also be helpful. The Canadiens have won five of their past seven here and 12 of their past 20. Consider Montreal. (1* Free Opinion)
 
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Art Aronson

Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames

1* Bonus Play on the Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks and the Flames renew their rivalry on opening night in the NHL at the Saddledome in Calgary. Visiting Vancouver made a few key moves in the offseason highlighted by a front office and coaching shakeup. Rookie NHL head coach Willie Desjardins takes the helm after a disappointing 2013/14 under John Tortorella. The Canucks also traded away disgruntled star center Ryan Kesler for some promising young players in Nick Bonino and Lucas Sbsia from the Anaheim Ducks. Vancouver would also make some big moves in free agency, signing goalie Ryan Miller and adding winger Radim Vrbata. Calgary meanwhile brought in veteran goalie Jonas Hiller to carry the load for this up and coming squad. The team is young but talented with future stars it can build around in Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano and Shawn Monahan. Neither of these clubs made the playoffs last season and each will be hungry to get things started off on the “right foot”. Vancouver though is built to succeed right now and I think it starts with game one of 82. The Canucks still have a lot of veteran players who are proven in this league and they’re already under pressure to perform out of the gates. I also make this pick knowing that the Canucks have won nine of the last ten meetings in this series and seven straight overall (note that Vancouver has outscored the Flames 10-3 in the last two meetings in Calgary as well, meaning “home ice” has meant little in this series). Consider a second look at the CANUCKS in this one.

AAA Sports
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday 10:05 PM NHL

(5) SAN JOSE SHARKS at (6) LOS ANGELES KINGS

Take: (5) SAN JOSE SHARKS +120

There’s no reason to think the Kings aren’t going to be a factor come springtime. The defending Stanley Cup champs have a loaded roster, and while repeat titles are clearly not the norm in any sport, the only shocker here would be if this team isn’t very involved come playoff time.

I’m not all that high on San Jose. They’re still playoff caliber, but this outfit always seems to be missing that certain something, and this year’s entry is no different. But this isn’t a full season profile, it’s just a look at one game. And in this instance, I’ll focus on a couple of intangibles as the key to grabbing a winner.

It’s banner night at Staples, and while this is an absolute blast for the fans and Kings players, it’s really not the best thing as far as game focus goes. Betting against the defending champs in that first home game of the new season has worked out pretty well. While the Kings are going to be standing around pre-game taking in all the pomp and circumstance, the visiting Sharks will be getting their game faces on.

There’s also a little mater of revenge here. There’s no way a win tonight can erase the agony of what took place last spring, but it’s sure an incentive for the San Jose side. They had the Kings dead to rights kin the playoffs, skating to two blowout wins at home followed by an overtime win at LA. Up 3-0 and with Kings goal Jonathan Quick really struggling, the final result seemed to be nothing more than a mere formality. Of course, we all know what happened. The Kings came out firing in Game Four, won that game, and ended up winning four straight by a combined 18-5 count.

I’ll be disappointed if the Sharks don’t come out breathing fire in this opener. I make the Kings the superior team and have no problem at all with the game being priced where it is. But it looks to me like a good situational wager given the circumstances, so I’ll be taking the money line with the visiting Sharks this evening.
 
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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Today

I don't have any plays for Wednesday. Check back on Thursday as I try to regroup and get things going again. Best of luck.

-EZ
 
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NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTREAL (56-33-0-10, 122 pts.) at TORONTO (38-36-0-8, 84 pts.) - 10/8/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 14-7 ATS (+21.3 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-4 (+1.7 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-4-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+7.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (45-34-0-10, 100 pts.) at BOSTON (61-23-0-10, 132 pts.) - 10/8/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-1 (+2.5 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.4 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE (54-26-0-9, 117 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (62-36-0-10, 134 pts.) - 10/8/2014, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 12-9 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 12-9-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.9 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VANCOUVER (36-35-0-11, 83 pts.) at CALGARY (35-40-0-7, 77 pts.) - 10/8/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 36-46 ATS (-18.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 9-1 (+7.8 Units) against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 9-1-0 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.0 Units)
 
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NHL

Wednesday, October 8

Trend Report

7:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. TORONTO
Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal

7:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. BOSTON
Philadelphia is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Boston
Boston is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

10:00 PM
SAN JOSE vs. LOS ANGELES
San Jose is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Jose
Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

10:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. CALGARY
Vancouver is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Vancouver is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Calgary is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Vancouver
Calgary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver
 

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