Wednesday 07/01/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Yanks]

Big Al McMordie

Bonus Play

Justin Verlander and Dallas Braden will prove too much for the bats in this afternoon contet. Play the Tigers and Athletics below the total in their series finale in Oakland.
Our Wednesday afternoon MLB selection is on the Tigers and Athletics remaining under the total at the Coliseum in Oakland.

Oakland lefthanded starter Dallas Braden hit a small bump in the road in his last start on June 26. True, the young third-year player only gave up two earned runs in that start – the fourth start in a row that Braden has only given up two earned runs – but he lasted just 5.1 innings and threw 100 pitches in the process. However, Braden can be excused, at least a little bit, for struggling in that start as it was against the red-hot Rockies in an interleague game.

Now Braden can get back to work against an American League foe (which is the good news). The bad news is that he will have to face another hot team in the Tigers and their ace, Justin Verlander.

Braden will also have to deal with a very weak offense, that being the one of his own team. Braden knows this problem firsthand as, despite an excellent ERA of 3.26, Braden has been getting very little run support and has a losing record of 5-7. In fact in his last four starts the A's are 0-4 and have only scored a total of 10 runs, or an average of just 2.5 runs per game.

Not to be outdone, in Verlander's last five starts, the Tigers are just 2-3 despite mostly quality starts by their ace, and Detroit has only scored a total of 12 runs in those five games. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Tigers-A's Under 7½ (+105)

 

[Yanks]

We Cover Spreads

Bonus Play

Randy Wells has been a true road warrior this year, pitching well above his experience. Chalk this one up to the Cubs when Chicago and Pittsburgh end their series at PNC Park.
Chicago Cubs pitcher Randy Wells has been pitching more like a veteran rather than a young player in his first year as a starter.

He has a 2.20 ERA, allowing just eight earned runs in 32.2 innings pitched on the highway. He is a young road warrior to say the least with 26 strikeouts and has allowed only 24 hits in road games. That says a lot for a young hurler to have more strikeouts than hits in road play. He has been solid overall with seven quality starts in nine appearances this season.

Pittsburgh sends Virgil Vasquez to the mound, who in his season debut looked very solid pitching six innings and allowing just two earned runs. That was against a lethargic Kansas City Royals offense though. We're not saying the Cubs offense has been superb this year but Vasquez' numbers in his lone start this season don't tell the whole truth about him.

In his rookie season in 2007 for Detroit, Vasquez struggled with a 8.64 ERA. Last year with Triple-A Toledo he had a rather high 4.81 ERA. He has only pitched 22 innings in the big leagues with a 7.14 ERA, allowing 31 hits and 18 earned runs in just 22.2 innings of work.

We're not sold on the inexperienced Vasquez and believe his flaws will be brought forth today and the Cubs pick up the win. We feel much more comfortable laying a little extra change on a young hurler who has been playing with confidence and shows great numbers consistently all year.

Free Pick: Cubs -128

 

[Yanks]

Marc Lawrence

Bonus Play

Chicago's sticks are getting it done during a four-game win streak, and that's one reason to play the White Sox tonight to complete their three-game sweep in Cleveland.
The White Sox and Indians conclude their three-game series when Jose Contreras matches serves with Jeremy Sowers at Progressive Field in Cleveland tonight.

Chicago begins the day on a four-game winning streak during which their offense has come alive with 31 runs crossing the plate. In last night's rain-shortened win, the ChiSox socred 11 times, getting home runs from Paul Konerko, Josh Fields and Gordon Beckham.

While both pitchers have struggled of late, Contreras is 3-0 with a 1.92 ERA in his last three team starts against the White Sox. He's also 7-1 his last eight road starts on Wednesdays.

On the flip side, Sowers is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA in his career team starts against the Pale Hose. With that, look for Chicago to complete the sweep here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox with Contreras versus Sowers.

Free Pick: White Sox +100

 

[Yanks]

Trace Adams

WEDNESDAY'S COMP PLAY

San Francisco Giants

 

[Yanks]

Matt Rivers

Complimentary Play

For Wednesday take the Red Sox minus 1 1/2 runs.

Josh Beckett is just flat out too freakin good right now and despite this being a large road chalk, which is never great, I can't help but back him laying that extra run. Beckett has been absolutely sizzling over the past month or so outclassing quality opponents including looking pretty much unhittable last time out in Atlanta. Plus I love teams coming off of bad beats and I would say that is exactly what happened to the Sox last night.

Brad Bergeson is a solid young kid who is good. I would not be shocked to see him match Beckett for a few innings but when all is said and done he is no Josh Beckett and the Orioles are not close to being the overall team that the Red Sox are.

Terry Francona's boys have been winning a ton this season. There are no easy outs in that lineup with Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis, and Ortiz leading the way. If Boston wins the World Series I would not be surprised in the least and to get them here with an absolute stud in Beckett on the hill against an under .500 Baltimore team more than likely will equal a 5-1 or so Boston victory.

1♦ (out of 5) Red Sox minus 1 1/2 runs.

 

[Yanks]

Jake Timlin

Today's Complimentary Selection

In afternoon action, I like the Marlins to blast the Nationals big time.

For one thing, the Marlins now 8-0 against the Nationals on the year it’s clear who the better of two teams are. Secondly, with Washington having lost 7 of their last 9 and with only 9 total road wins it would take a miracle for the Nationals to beat Florida with Johnson pitching today.

Josh Johnson solid on the year at 7-1 with an ERA of 2.76 has been the Marlins best starter on the year as Florida is 12-4 in his 16 starts on the year.

Countering will be Jordan Zimmerman who has been good over his last three starts still just has one win over his last 10 starts as the Nationals offense and bullpen are not quite up to par and won’t be again today as Florida makes it 9 in a row in the series.
Go with the Marlins.

1♦ Florida Marlins -1 ½ Runs

(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

 

[Yanks]

Dominic Fazzini

Today's Bonus Play

I gave you another win Tuesday with my complimentary selection as Dan Haren stole the show with his pitching and offense in the Diamondbacks' 6-2 victory over the Reds. Let's go for three in a row with today's pick.

Jarrod Washburn has not received much help from his offense this year.

The Mariners left-hander (4-5, 3.22) has been solid all season, with quality starts in 10 of his 14 outings, but he is 4-2 with four no-decisions in those quality starts because of a lack of run production.

Washburn has been effective in his career against the Yankees, with 11 quality starts in 12 outings against them. But despite his 2.56 ERA vs. New York, he is just 5-5 lifetime.

Washburn posted a 2.81 ERA in five June starts, but was just 1-2. He won his last start, however, allowing two runs on six hits in six innings against San Diego.

Andy Pettitte, on the other hand, has been quite inconsistent for the Yankees. The veteran lefty was 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA in five June starts, and gave up six runs (three earned) on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings Thursday at Atlanta, but received a no-decision.

Pettitte (7-3, 4.38) has pitched well in his last three starts against Seattle, posting a 3.10 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings, but is just 1-2.

Even though the Mariners are playing without Adrian Beltre, who is undergoing shoulder surgery, I’ll take my chances with Seattle today. Washburn has controlled many of Yankees’ bats, as Melky Cabrera is 0-for-13 against him, and Robinson Cano and Hideki Matsui are both 2-for-14. Take the Mariners to pull off the upset.

(Based on a 1? to 5? scale)

1? SEATTLE

 

[Yanks]

The Sports Investing Professional

COMP.

We do have one play today. With the Red Sox
blowing a 9 run lead there will be no better person than a pissed
off Beckett to have on the bump. In 4 of his last 5 he's given up
0 Earned Runs. If there was any chance of a let down in his
performance it was greatly reduced by the exploding bullpen
last night.

MLB - BOSTON RED SOX -145[LISTED] Beckett / Bergesen 725 / 500

 

[thedegen]

gamehunter

2009 Record: 330-314, +71.5749 Jorgensens
Tuesday: 5-6, -1.770 units

Finally got a miracle with the O's. They are few and far between but much appreciated when the miracles are returned. Short on time today.


WASHINGTON +164 (1.25 UNITS)

MILWAUKEE -1.5 RUNS (+103 (1.5 UNITS)

COLORADO +135 (1.5 UNITS)

SAN DIEGO +115 (1.75 UNITS)

PHILADELPHIA -102 (1.75 UNITS)

TORONTO +120 (1.75 UNITS)

UNDER WHITE SOX/CLEVE 9.5 RUNS (+100) (1.75 UNITS)

SEATTLE +170 (1.5 UNITS)

BALTIMORE +144 (1.5 UNITS)

UNDER ANGELS/TEX 9.5 RUNS (-112) (1.75 UNITS)

 

[BatBoy]

The Consensus Group

I follow these guys and buy them all the time. They are very consistant. It would be nice to share in buying as it's getting old sharing buying and sharing plays that no one else buys and chips in.

With that said. Does anyone have The Consensus Groups play for today!

 

[Yanks]

Jimmy Boyd

Bonus Play

I like the Cardinals to end their skid tonight at home with ace Adam Wainwright on the hill. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last 5 Wednesday starts, 6-1 in his last 7 starts during game 3 of a series, and an incredible 22-5 in hiss last27 starts vs. a team with a winning record. We know how good Cain has been for the Giants this season, but he's had some trouble picking up win No. 10. In his last outing, Cain allowed five runs and six hits in a 5-1 loss at Milwaukee. He has also been roughed up against the Cards in three career starts, going 1-2 against the money line with an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.500. The Giants are 3-18 in his last 21 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. After back-to-back home defeats to San Francisco, look for the Cards to get back in the win column tonight.

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -133

 

[Yanks]

Freddy Wills

Bonus Play

Washington Nationals vs. Florida Marlins

Play: Florida Marlins -1½

Today Josh Johnson will go up against rookie Jordan Zimmerman and both pitchers are pitching well, but the difference is in the Marlins flat out dominating the Nationals. They will be going for their 10th win in a row over the Nationals here today. The Nationals have lost all 8 games this year vs. the Marlins seven of which have came by more than 1 run.

Zimmermann has pitched well of late, but he's on the road and during the day here. He has a 5.93 ERA away compared to 3.83 home and a 5.23 day compared to a 4.55 night. I look for him to struggle against a Marlins club that is starting to hit the ball a bit here now.
Josh Johnson on a huge bounce back start vs. a team he has owned in the past. He has a 4-0 career record with a 3.68ERA vs. the Nationals, but struggled last time out vs. the Nats. I think he will pitch a gem here today where he has a 1.94ERA. The Marlins are 11-2 the last 13 times Johnson has been a favorite and they are a big one here today! However, with the Nationals losing 82% of their road games by more than 1 run I see excellent value on the run line!

Take Marlins -1.5

 

[Yanks]

Tommy Gill

Bonus Play

Looking at this matchup we are getting two good pitchers coming into this game Wednesday in Beckett (9-3 3.48 ERA) vs. Bergesen (5-2 3.76 ERA). Bergensen has impressed me a lot as a rookie this year and especially at home with a 5-1 record pitching 52.1 innings only giving up 18 ER. Beckett has turned around his bad start to the season to look like his normal dominate self going 8-1 his last 10 games while having 9 quality starts in those 10 with 6 of those giving up 1 ER or less. I believe we are getting a good spot today in a game day under with 2 quality starters on the mound today and I see a lot of value in this play because I am sure that Boston and Baltimore will be sitting one or two of there starters today. I am hearing Adam Jones is out due to injury and JD Drew for Boston at least. The Under is also 13-3 after a loss by Boston this season while the Under is 7-2 in Becketts starts overall. Also the Under is 4-1 in Becketts last 5 starts in Baltimore.

3 units Under 9 Boston and Baltimore

 

[Yanks]

Ben Burns

Bonus Play

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

Prediction: Under

Plenty of reasons to favor the 'under' here. The Twins are 8-3 to the under this season when the money line on the game is between -100 and -125. Through games of Monday, June 29th, Minnesota is 26-11 to the under in road games this season. The Twins are 19-9 to the under in day games this season. Through games of Monday, June 29th, Minnesota is 27-13 to the under in games against teams with a losing record. When the total is a 9 or 9.5, the Royals are 100-59 to the under the last three seasons. Kansas City is 16-10 to the under in day games this season. Glen Perkins started the season with three straight quality starts. He then struggled from late April through mid-May. But, after a stint on the disabled list he's come back and produced two quality starts in three outings this month. Perkins has a 3.62 ERA and a .267 BAA in 22 day games (14 starts) in his career. Through games of Monday, June 29th, the Royals had averaged just 3.8 runs per game in the month of June. Heading into Tuesday's action, the Royals had gone 6-0-1 to the under in their last 7 games. Heading into Tuesday's action, Minnesota had gone 8-3 to the under in their last eleven games. Through games of Monday June 29th, the Twins had been held to three runs or less in 13 of their last 23 games. Kansas City's Gil Meche is off of back to back losses but he had previously produced five quality starts in his last six outings. He lasted at least six innings in each of those five starts and he allowed two earned runs or less in each outing. Meche is 8-5 in his career against the Twins and he's held them to a .238 batting average. Meche is 27-21 in day games in his career with a solid 3.92 ERA.

Consider the Under

 

[Yanks]

ALEX SMART

Bonus Play

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

Cole Hamels(4-4. 4.43 ERA) the Phillies starting hurler today against the Atlanta Braves goes for his fifth straight win at Turner Field on Wednesday night. The ace of Phillies' staff is 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his last four outings in Georgia, and once again looks like a good hurler to back, vs a Braves team that has averaged just 3.7 RPG at home this season via a lowly .253 team BA. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent , Jair Jurrjens, despite of being a top tier pitcher , has not had much luck of late going 0-4 in his 5 June starts, thanks to a offense that has supplied him with a total of 9 runs (1.8 RPG) during that span. I expect his bad run continues tonight vs the defending champs. Final notes & Key Trends: Phillies are 10-2 on the road this season with a moneyline of -100 to -125.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies

 

[Yanks]

Rocketman Sports

Bonus Play

LAA Angels vs. Texas Rangers

Play: Texas Rangers

LA Angels come in at 42-33 on the season while Texas is 41-35 overall this year. Texas is 14-4 against division opponents this year. LA Angels bullpen has a 5.34 ERA overall and a 5.46 ERA on the road this year. Kevin Millwood is 8-5 with a 2.64 ERA overall this year, 6-1 with a 2.17 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA his last 3 starts. Texas is 4-1 overall vs LA Angels this year.

We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight!

 

[Yanks]

Jr Tips

Bonus Play

ANGELS vs. RANGERS

The Rangers can pull within one-half game of Los Angeles tonight with awin. Texas (41-35) will face starting Angel Pitcher Jered Weaver (8-3, 2.65 ERA), who went 7-2 with a 2.08 ERA in his first 13 starts but has allowed nine runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts but he earned a victory against Arizona on Friday, working six innings in a 12-3 win. In Weavers last start against the Rangers, Los Angeles didn't give him any support as he allowed three runs in eight innings in a 3-0 loss. It will be tough for the Angel bats against Kevin Millwood (8-5, 2.64). Millwood is coming off a month of June in which he went 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA. Millwood beat the Angels on May 15, allowing two runs in six innings. Two of the top six AL pitchers in ERA match up tonight which will keep this a low scoring game.

TAKE UNDER 9 1/2

 

[Yanks]

Karl Garrett

Bonus Play

White Sox +105 at CLEVELAND

For Wednesday night, have to back the surging White Sox to leave Cleveland with the three-game sweep.

Chicago pounded Cleveland 11-4 last night for their 4th straight win, and their 8th win in their last 10 games. The Sox know the Tigers are struggling on the road right now, so expect Chicago to continue their run against a Cleveland team that has now lost 4 straight, and 9 of 11.

Jose Conteras has gone 2-0 his last 3 starts against the Indians, while Jeremy Sowers is 0-4 the last 4 times he has faced the Pale Hose, allowing 14 runs in just 18 innings of work.
Get the broom out fellas, Chicago wins another!

4? WHITE SOX

 

[Yanks]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Bonus Play

Houston at SAN DIEGO

Tonight we play the OVER between Houston and San Diego, as the pitching matchup suggests to us that the bats will rule the roost at Petco Park tonight.

Brian Moehler is 2-0 over his last 3 starts, but he has allowed 7 runs in 17 innings, and for the season, sports an over 6 ERA.

His counterpart Walter Silva is fresh off 8 runs allowed against the Rangers in just 2 innings of work. That start ballooned his season ERA up over 9!

Yes, both the Astros and the Padres have been on a slew of UNDERS of late, but not tonight, tonight the hitters will feast on the suspect pitching, and we will see the scoreboard sprayed with crooked digits.

Play on the OVER in Diego this evening.

3? OVER

 

[Yanks]

MTi Sports

Bonus Play

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates won an interesting game yesterday by a margin of 3-0 to even the series at a game each. Chicago had a lot of men in scoring position, but they couldn?t push a run across. Pittsburgh pitchers struck out ten and allowed a single walk. Low-scoring wins are positively inspiring for Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 17-9 as a DOG after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a dog and 18-8 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series.

The Cubs are 5-17 as a road favorite in the last game of a three game series when they split the first two, as long as they were favored in game two of that series.

Consider Pittsburgh.