Tom Freese
Bonus Play
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Total 8 un-105
Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels is 20-8-1 UNDER when he pitches with 4 days of rest. Philadelphia is 8-3-1 UNDER their last 12 games vs. losing teams. The Phillies are 11-5 UNDER on Wednesday and they are 8-3-1 UNDER their last 12 meetings with the Braves. Atlanta is 11-5 UNDER with Jair Jurrjens on the mound this year and they are 66-31-3 UNDER their last 100 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Braves are 8-2-1 UNDER their last 11 home games and they are 8-3 UNDER vs. lefty starters.
Play ON 'UNDER' (Jurrjens vs. Hamels)
Bonus Play
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Total 8 un-105
Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels is 20-8-1 UNDER when he pitches with 4 days of rest. Philadelphia is 8-3-1 UNDER their last 12 games vs. losing teams. The Phillies are 11-5 UNDER on Wednesday and they are 8-3-1 UNDER their last 12 meetings with the Braves. Atlanta is 11-5 UNDER with Jair Jurrjens on the mound this year and they are 66-31-3 UNDER their last 100 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Braves are 8-2-1 UNDER their last 11 home games and they are 8-3 UNDER vs. lefty starters.
Play ON 'UNDER' (Jurrjens vs. Hamels)
Wainwright, Cardinals look to avoid sweep
By: Chance Harper - 07/01/2009
This series has already seen some fine pitching, Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it's been Giants hurlers that have gotten the job done with Tim Lincecum blanking St. Louis on Monday and Randy Johnson besting Chris Carpenter last night. Now the Redbirds turn to big Adam Wainwright as they look to avoid being swept at home for the first time since the Rockies came to town in early June. ESPN brings you the action beginning at 8:15 (ET).
It’s all about pitching.
When it comes to baseball, there is one man on the diamond who has the outcome literally in the palm of his hand. Everybody else is merely reacting to what the pitcher is doing. Not every baseball GM or ardent statistician will agree with this assessment, but the unforgiving bottom line has trained handicappers to pay more attention to the guys on the mound than anyone else.
We’ve already seen some tremendous pitching in the series between the San Francisco Giants (42-34, plus-8.86 units) and the St. Louis Cardinals (41-38, minus-3.70 units). As it should be; the Giants are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the majors with a team ERA of 3.61. St. Louis is tied with the Atlanta Braves for fourth overall with a 3.89 ERA. But the pitching displays in the first two games of their series at the new Busch Stadium were rather one-sided in favor of the Giants. Both games went Over.
We’ll see if the Cardinals can do better Wednesday night, starting at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Adam Wainwright (3.51 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) has a 10-6 team record for St. Louis, good enough for 1.38 units of profit. This is 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds of raw power on the loose; Wainwright is No. 10 in the National League with 89 strikeouts, and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last 12 starts.
The Giants respond with Matt Cain (2.57 ERA, 4.44 xFIP), who has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in the MLB money standings. In 2007, even with a solid ERA of 3.65 (4.66 xFIP), Cain was dead last out of 315 starting pitchers with 18.03 units of debt on a team record of 9-23. Fast forward to 2009, and Cain finds himself No. 6 overall with 6.19 units of profit on a team record of 11-4.
So you may have noticed the gaping crevasse between Cain’s ERA and his xFIP, which is indeed higher than Wainwright’s. The Giants have somehow managed to strand 86.7 percent of runners this year with Cain on the mound. This is the highest percentage for any starting pitcher in the majors – Kevin Millwood of the Texas Rangers is next at 85.9 percent. This is also highly unsustainable. More of Cain’s runners are almost certain to cash in as the innings accumulate and his left-on-base percentage regresses to something closer to last year’s 75.3.
Wainwright’s 76.7 LOB percentage is much more consistent with his performance since joining the majors in 2005, the same year as Cain. It’s fair to conclude that Wainwright is likely to have a better night on the mound than Cain. But that’s judging by defense-independent criteria. When you put the defense back in, you can start to see how the Giants have been able to keep the money taps flowing. The Cardinals are No. 8 in the majors with 53 errors; San Fran is No. 24 with just 37 errors. Wainwright has seen five unearned runs go up on the board compared to one for Cain.
The Giants also make it easier for Cain to earn the W with a bullpen ERA of 3.39, or No. 6 overall. The Cards are ranked No. 12 with a 3.97 ERA, and they’ve tossed seven innings of relief over the past two games compared to 3.2 innings for San Francisco. The one positive for St. Louis is that closer Ryan Franklin (0.93 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) is fresh after three days of rest and relaxation. Franklin hasn’t allowed a run, earned or otherwise, in his last 11 appearances dating back to May 20.
To pay lip service to the hitters, we should mention that both teams are pretty bad in this department. St. Louis is No. 19 in the majors with a .735 OPS, and newly acquired Mark DeRosa (.799 OPS with Cleveland this year) might not be able to play third base after reporting a “little tweak” in his left wrist during an at-bat on Tuesday. Joe Thurston (.708 OPS) is a likely candidate to play Wednesday. The Giants are No. 28 in team OPS at an even .700.
The betting odds have St. Louis pegged as a -135 home favorite with a total of 7.5 runs. The Giants are 4-1 against the Cards this year and 12-5 over the past three seasons. Again, despite all that great pitching, the over is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings.
By: Chance Harper - 07/01/2009
This series has already seen some fine pitching, Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it's been Giants hurlers that have gotten the job done with Tim Lincecum blanking St. Louis on Monday and Randy Johnson besting Chris Carpenter last night. Now the Redbirds turn to big Adam Wainwright as they look to avoid being swept at home for the first time since the Rockies came to town in early June. ESPN brings you the action beginning at 8:15 (ET).
It’s all about pitching.
When it comes to baseball, there is one man on the diamond who has the outcome literally in the palm of his hand. Everybody else is merely reacting to what the pitcher is doing. Not every baseball GM or ardent statistician will agree with this assessment, but the unforgiving bottom line has trained handicappers to pay more attention to the guys on the mound than anyone else.
We’ve already seen some tremendous pitching in the series between the San Francisco Giants (42-34, plus-8.86 units) and the St. Louis Cardinals (41-38, minus-3.70 units). As it should be; the Giants are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the majors with a team ERA of 3.61. St. Louis is tied with the Atlanta Braves for fourth overall with a 3.89 ERA. But the pitching displays in the first two games of their series at the new Busch Stadium were rather one-sided in favor of the Giants. Both games went Over.
We’ll see if the Cardinals can do better Wednesday night, starting at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Adam Wainwright (3.51 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) has a 10-6 team record for St. Louis, good enough for 1.38 units of profit. This is 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds of raw power on the loose; Wainwright is No. 10 in the National League with 89 strikeouts, and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last 12 starts.
The Giants respond with Matt Cain (2.57 ERA, 4.44 xFIP), who has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in the MLB money standings. In 2007, even with a solid ERA of 3.65 (4.66 xFIP), Cain was dead last out of 315 starting pitchers with 18.03 units of debt on a team record of 9-23. Fast forward to 2009, and Cain finds himself No. 6 overall with 6.19 units of profit on a team record of 11-4.
So you may have noticed the gaping crevasse between Cain’s ERA and his xFIP, which is indeed higher than Wainwright’s. The Giants have somehow managed to strand 86.7 percent of runners this year with Cain on the mound. This is the highest percentage for any starting pitcher in the majors – Kevin Millwood of the Texas Rangers is next at 85.9 percent. This is also highly unsustainable. More of Cain’s runners are almost certain to cash in as the innings accumulate and his left-on-base percentage regresses to something closer to last year’s 75.3.
Wainwright’s 76.7 LOB percentage is much more consistent with his performance since joining the majors in 2005, the same year as Cain. It’s fair to conclude that Wainwright is likely to have a better night on the mound than Cain. But that’s judging by defense-independent criteria. When you put the defense back in, you can start to see how the Giants have been able to keep the money taps flowing. The Cardinals are No. 8 in the majors with 53 errors; San Fran is No. 24 with just 37 errors. Wainwright has seen five unearned runs go up on the board compared to one for Cain.
The Giants also make it easier for Cain to earn the W with a bullpen ERA of 3.39, or No. 6 overall. The Cards are ranked No. 12 with a 3.97 ERA, and they’ve tossed seven innings of relief over the past two games compared to 3.2 innings for San Francisco. The one positive for St. Louis is that closer Ryan Franklin (0.93 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) is fresh after three days of rest and relaxation. Franklin hasn’t allowed a run, earned or otherwise, in his last 11 appearances dating back to May 20.
To pay lip service to the hitters, we should mention that both teams are pretty bad in this department. St. Louis is No. 19 in the majors with a .735 OPS, and newly acquired Mark DeRosa (.799 OPS with Cleveland this year) might not be able to play third base after reporting a “little tweak” in his left wrist during an at-bat on Tuesday. Joe Thurston (.708 OPS) is a likely candidate to play Wednesday. The Giants are No. 28 in team OPS at an even .700.
The betting odds have St. Louis pegged as a -135 home favorite with a total of 7.5 runs. The Giants are 4-1 against the Cards this year and 12-5 over the past three seasons. Again, despite all that great pitching, the over is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings.
Colorado Rockies sad to see June go
By: Bread - 07/01/2009
It was a very good month for the Colorado Rockies. After going 21-7 over the past month, with three of those losses coming in the first three days of June, With a favorable schedule coming up, can the winning continue?
Independence Day might be right around the corner, but the party started for Colorado Rockies backers a month early. It was June 4th when they decided to break out of their season-long funk, embark on a 21-4 run and become relevant once again.
To get an idea of just how dreadful they were, you need to go back to June 3rd. After dropping three straight in Houston, the Rockies owned the league's second-worst record at 20-32. Only the Nationals were below them, and they’re hardly a MLB team to begin with. They sat alone at the bottom of the NL West, 15.5 games back. For the gambling-inclined, Colorado was sitting at -12.98 units. Spirits were a mile low in the Mile High.
Break up the Rockies!
Then something reminiscent of their late season playoff push from a couple of seasons ago began to take place. Colorado began to win. And win. And win some more. Before anyone knew what happened, these former sad sacks had ripped off 11 straight wins. Once that streak ended, the victories kept rolling in.
This impressive run currently sits at 21-4. Five teams have gotten the broom treatment as Oakland, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Milwaukee and St. Louis have all been swept away. If you have been following the Rockies blindly during this run, you would find yourself up a cool 20.85 units. Now that’s a turnaround! Fourteen of their 21 wins have been as underdogs to provide some pretty paydays.
The Rockies have climbed all the way up to 41-36, only 7.5 back of the division lead, and in sole possession of the league's 10th-best record. This is now a dangerous group and the credit is to be shared by the entire team. The core of Colorado’s batting lineup has been producing at the plate. It’s odd to find such a lineup of white bread in this day and age. I think Torii Hunter might’ve been referring to this organization when he went on his Jackie Robinson Day tirade a few years ago. But as usual, I’m getting off point.
Torii Hunter is not impressed
Brad Hawpe (6 HR, 16 RBI), Clint Barmes (4 HR, 19 RBI), Troy Tulowitzki (7 HR, 15 RBI), Garrett Atkins (3 HR, 8 RBI), Ian Stewart (6 HR, 16 RBI) and the venerable Todd Helton (18 RBI) have all been turning it up these past 25 games. The production has been pretty evenly spread out and as a result, they have outscored their opponents 147-92 during this span. But obviously, the pitching staff has had a lot to do with that as well.
The starting rotation of Aaron Cook (5 wins), Jason Hammel (4 wins), Jorge De La Rosa (4 wins), Ubaldo Jiminez (3 wins) and Jason Marquis (3 wins) have been spectacular, putting their team in a position to win with a new found regularity. But it has been their closer who has put the exclamation on most of these wins.
Since June 4th, Huston Street is a perfect 11-11 in save opportunities. His only other appearance resulted in a win. Street’s success symbolizes the way things have gone for the Rockies as of late. So the question now is – can the boys in purple keep it up for the Coors Field faithful?
Hell if I knew the answer to that I could pack up my lemonade stand. What I can tell you is that the opportunity is definitely there. Right now they are playing the Dodgers who are the only team to sweep them this year (twice!). Behind a two hit shutout gem from Marquis last night, they guaranteed that L.A. would not sweep them for a third time. Once that is done, Colorado plays 17 straight games against the Diamondbacks, Braves, Padres and those wacky Nationals. You will be hard pressed to find a more favorable schedule than that.
Can the Rockies continue to pile up the W’s? I think it’s definitely possible. But if not, might I interest you in an ice cold lemonade?
By: Bread - 07/01/2009
It was a very good month for the Colorado Rockies. After going 21-7 over the past month, with three of those losses coming in the first three days of June, With a favorable schedule coming up, can the winning continue?
Independence Day might be right around the corner, but the party started for Colorado Rockies backers a month early. It was June 4th when they decided to break out of their season-long funk, embark on a 21-4 run and become relevant once again.
To get an idea of just how dreadful they were, you need to go back to June 3rd. After dropping three straight in Houston, the Rockies owned the league's second-worst record at 20-32. Only the Nationals were below them, and they’re hardly a MLB team to begin with. They sat alone at the bottom of the NL West, 15.5 games back. For the gambling-inclined, Colorado was sitting at -12.98 units. Spirits were a mile low in the Mile High.
Break up the Rockies!
Then something reminiscent of their late season playoff push from a couple of seasons ago began to take place. Colorado began to win. And win. And win some more. Before anyone knew what happened, these former sad sacks had ripped off 11 straight wins. Once that streak ended, the victories kept rolling in.
This impressive run currently sits at 21-4. Five teams have gotten the broom treatment as Oakland, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Milwaukee and St. Louis have all been swept away. If you have been following the Rockies blindly during this run, you would find yourself up a cool 20.85 units. Now that’s a turnaround! Fourteen of their 21 wins have been as underdogs to provide some pretty paydays.
The Rockies have climbed all the way up to 41-36, only 7.5 back of the division lead, and in sole possession of the league's 10th-best record. This is now a dangerous group and the credit is to be shared by the entire team. The core of Colorado’s batting lineup has been producing at the plate. It’s odd to find such a lineup of white bread in this day and age. I think Torii Hunter might’ve been referring to this organization when he went on his Jackie Robinson Day tirade a few years ago. But as usual, I’m getting off point.
Torii Hunter is not impressed
Brad Hawpe (6 HR, 16 RBI), Clint Barmes (4 HR, 19 RBI), Troy Tulowitzki (7 HR, 15 RBI), Garrett Atkins (3 HR, 8 RBI), Ian Stewart (6 HR, 16 RBI) and the venerable Todd Helton (18 RBI) have all been turning it up these past 25 games. The production has been pretty evenly spread out and as a result, they have outscored their opponents 147-92 during this span. But obviously, the pitching staff has had a lot to do with that as well.
The starting rotation of Aaron Cook (5 wins), Jason Hammel (4 wins), Jorge De La Rosa (4 wins), Ubaldo Jiminez (3 wins) and Jason Marquis (3 wins) have been spectacular, putting their team in a position to win with a new found regularity. But it has been their closer who has put the exclamation on most of these wins.
Since June 4th, Huston Street is a perfect 11-11 in save opportunities. His only other appearance resulted in a win. Street’s success symbolizes the way things have gone for the Rockies as of late. So the question now is – can the boys in purple keep it up for the Coors Field faithful?
Hell if I knew the answer to that I could pack up my lemonade stand. What I can tell you is that the opportunity is definitely there. Right now they are playing the Dodgers who are the only team to sweep them this year (twice!). Behind a two hit shutout gem from Marquis last night, they guaranteed that L.A. would not sweep them for a third time. Once that is done, Colorado plays 17 straight games against the Diamondbacks, Braves, Padres and those wacky Nationals. You will be hard pressed to find a more favorable schedule than that.
Can the Rockies continue to pile up the W’s? I think it’s definitely possible. But if not, might I interest you in an ice cold lemonade?
James Dodson
Bonus Play
Texas got a big lift last night with 9-5 win, and this evening they have their ace Kevin Millwood on the hill. Take the Rangers as small home favorites Wednesday against the Angels.
The Texas Rangers aim to put together back-to-back home wins Wednesday as they look to take another game from the American League West leading Los Angeles Angels.
On Tuesday, the Rangers found their bats once again and pulled out an impressive 9-5 home win against the only team that is up on them in their division. A win on Wednesday would place the Rangers just a half-game out of first place with many games still to play this season.
Texas starts their ace, Kevin Millwood, who is as hot as a firecracker lately. Millwood’s ERA is a 2.64 overall, but is a smoking hot 2.25 in his last three outings giving up only five earned runs in his last 20 innings pitched. He is 4-4 against the Angels and has won two of his last three starts against them.
Jared Weaver is having a great year as well for the Angels. He has a 2.65 ERA, but is somewhat less impressive in his last two starts in which he has surrendered nine earned runs in 11.1 innings of work. Weaver is 2-2 against the Rangers and has lost two of his last three matchups against Texas. Both of Weaver’s last two losses to the Rangers were in Texas' home stadium.
The Angels were on a 13-3 run prior to Tuesday’s win by the Rangers, and have a road win ratio of 22-18. Texas is hot at home for the season and carries a win ratio of 24-17. On Wednesday, look for Texas to continue their new found momentum in the bats as they swing to yet another home win over the Angels.
Free Pick: Rangers -107
Bonus Play
Texas got a big lift last night with 9-5 win, and this evening they have their ace Kevin Millwood on the hill. Take the Rangers as small home favorites Wednesday against the Angels.
The Texas Rangers aim to put together back-to-back home wins Wednesday as they look to take another game from the American League West leading Los Angeles Angels.
On Tuesday, the Rangers found their bats once again and pulled out an impressive 9-5 home win against the only team that is up on them in their division. A win on Wednesday would place the Rangers just a half-game out of first place with many games still to play this season.
Texas starts their ace, Kevin Millwood, who is as hot as a firecracker lately. Millwood’s ERA is a 2.64 overall, but is a smoking hot 2.25 in his last three outings giving up only five earned runs in his last 20 innings pitched. He is 4-4 against the Angels and has won two of his last three starts against them.
Jared Weaver is having a great year as well for the Angels. He has a 2.65 ERA, but is somewhat less impressive in his last two starts in which he has surrendered nine earned runs in 11.1 innings of work. Weaver is 2-2 against the Rangers and has lost two of his last three matchups against Texas. Both of Weaver’s last two losses to the Rangers were in Texas' home stadium.
The Angels were on a 13-3 run prior to Tuesday’s win by the Rangers, and have a road win ratio of 22-18. Texas is hot at home for the season and carries a win ratio of 24-17. On Wednesday, look for Texas to continue their new found momentum in the bats as they swing to yet another home win over the Angels.
Free Pick: Rangers -107
Lee Kostroski
Bonus Play
The new stadium in the Bronx has a home run happy reputation, and that's pushing totals too high. Play the under tonight when the Yankees host the Mariners.
The Mariners have been the ultimate Under team this season, now 44-29-2 on the season. Seattle owns a team ERA of just 3.65 while featuring an offense that has scored just 3.8 runs per game. The Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 road games for the Mariners and there is sure to be an inflated total in this matchup being played at Yankee Stadium.
Although the new ballpark has been considered a home run haven so far this season, the Over is just slightly ahead of the Under, and in the last 20 New York games the Under has cashed 13 times.
Jarrod Washburn has delivered a standout season for the Mariners with a 3.22 ERA. Washburn owns just a 4-5 record but he has allowed two or fewer earned runs ten times this year. Opposing batters are hitting just .232 against Washburn and the ‘under’ is 9-5 in his starts.
Seattle features the second-best bullpen ERA in all of baseball and the Yankees have gone on a cold offensive stretch, hitting just .256 in the last 10 games. At home this season the Yankees are batting just .267 in contrast to the assumptions of incredible production.
Veteran Andy Pettitte has allowed four or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and the Under is 6-1 in his last seven outings, including 4-0 in his last four home starts. New York’s bullpen has also made great strides from the early season struggles as the unit now features a 4.27 ERA and a .232 batting average against.
For the season Yankee Stadium has averaged 11 runs per game, but those numbers have dropped considerably in the past month, down to below 10 runs per game in the last 15 home games. Expect lower than listed scoring in what should be a tough pitchers duel with two lefthanded starters.
Free Pick: Mariners-Yankees Under 9½ (-110)
Bonus Play
The new stadium in the Bronx has a home run happy reputation, and that's pushing totals too high. Play the under tonight when the Yankees host the Mariners.
The Mariners have been the ultimate Under team this season, now 44-29-2 on the season. Seattle owns a team ERA of just 3.65 while featuring an offense that has scored just 3.8 runs per game. The Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 road games for the Mariners and there is sure to be an inflated total in this matchup being played at Yankee Stadium.
Although the new ballpark has been considered a home run haven so far this season, the Over is just slightly ahead of the Under, and in the last 20 New York games the Under has cashed 13 times.
Jarrod Washburn has delivered a standout season for the Mariners with a 3.22 ERA. Washburn owns just a 4-5 record but he has allowed two or fewer earned runs ten times this year. Opposing batters are hitting just .232 against Washburn and the ‘under’ is 9-5 in his starts.
Seattle features the second-best bullpen ERA in all of baseball and the Yankees have gone on a cold offensive stretch, hitting just .256 in the last 10 games. At home this season the Yankees are batting just .267 in contrast to the assumptions of incredible production.
Veteran Andy Pettitte has allowed four or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and the Under is 6-1 in his last seven outings, including 4-0 in his last four home starts. New York’s bullpen has also made great strides from the early season struggles as the unit now features a 4.27 ERA and a .232 batting average against.
For the season Yankee Stadium has averaged 11 runs per game, but those numbers have dropped considerably in the past month, down to below 10 runs per game in the last 15 home games. Expect lower than listed scoring in what should be a tough pitchers duel with two lefthanded starters.
Free Pick: Mariners-Yankees Under 9½ (-110)
