WCQ for Wednesday, Oct. 12

[quantumleap]

Spain -3.5 and -4 -132 over San Marino
Spain trails Serbia by 2 points. They will get 3 points on Wednesday when they beat San Marino. If Serbia loses to Bosnia on Wednesday Spain will win Group 7. However, if Serbia and Bosnia tie, Spain needs a 4- or 5-goal victory margin to continue on.

"I don't know if it is a good idea or not but it is normal to play more forwards if you want an offensive display," said David Villa, who has six league goals to his name this season."

San Marino has given up fewer than 3 goals only twice in 9 matches.

 

[chriscol]

that's also my top bet for wednesday

 

[quantumleap]

It's good to see that we are on the same bet chriscol. Good luck.

 

[quantumleap]

Sweden -2 -125 over Iceland
Same situation here. Sweden needs a victory here at home if the Czech Republic does well against Finland. The Swedes are not taking anything for granted.

Sweden is a true powerhouse as they have scored 27 goals in 9 matches while only giving up 3 and beat Iceland 4:1 in Iceland in the last match between these 2.

"I don't like speculation ... we're going to run over Iceland," said defender Erik Edman.

 

[quantumleap]

Cyprus +3 and +3.5 -128 over France
If the Republic of Ireland wins or draws in Dublin and France wins over Cyprus then the French are the winners of Group 4. If the Swiss win in Dublin then France has to score 4 more goals than them. This would encourage the French to try to beat Cyprus by a lot. So why am I taking Cyprus here? The French have only scored 10 goals in 9 matches. The Cypriots are no slouches here either as they have never lost by more than 3 goals.

 

[chriscol]

i am also on these two with you...i like sweden more than cyprus.

also looking into the turkey match right now...i got the feeling that albania can cause and upset. they are quite a strong team at home and turkey is not the power house that would run over these kind of teams,especially under the pressure of a must win. i think it's either a turkey HT/FT win with an early goal or an albania cover.

 

[quantumleap]

i am also on these two with you...i like sweden more than cyprus.

also looking into the turkey match right now...i got the feeling that albania can cause and upset. they are quite a strong team at home and turkey is not the power house that would run over these kind of teams,especially under the pressure of a must win. i think it's either a turkey HT/FT win with an early goal or an albania cover.

Turkey concerns me as well. They are ranked something like 12th in the world and have had some success. They just aren't winning by large amounts so I am thinking they will win by 1 here which isn't enough. I still may make a bet.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[quantumleap]

Azerbaijan/Wales under 2.5 and 3 -116
Azerbaijan has scored 1 goal in 9 matches. Wales had gone 4 matches in a row without a goal until last Sunday's 3-2 victory over Northern Ireland. That match is why the line is so high.

This match has no significance so I cannot see Wales putting in as much effort as they did last weekend. Azerbaijan is no defensive slouch as 7 out of their 9 opponents scored 2 goals or less.

 

[quantumleap]

Czech Republic/Finland over 2.5 -108
The Czechs will not come up blank here (please pardon the pun) as they are one of the highest scoring teams in the European section of the WCQ. They have scored 32 goals in 11 matches and must win their game to get a berth in Germany. Finland is not necessarily the best defensive team either. The previous match between these 2 teams ended with a score of 4:3.

 

[quantumleap]

I just wanted to point out that the reason I feel the line for the Czech/Finland match is so low is because the highest scorer in Europe WCQ Jan Koller is out for the Czechs. Also out for the Czechs is Milan Baros. While these 2 men are important to the club, I feel the Czechs will be able to still score here against a Finnish team that is out of competition.

 

[quantumleap]

Macedonia/Holland under 3 and 3.5 -108
Holland has sewn up a place in the World Cup finals in Germany and is ranked 2nd in the world behind Brazil. Certainly they should be able to score 3 or 4 goals against Macedonia, no? The Dutch will be resting key players such as top scorer Ruud Van Nistlerooij. Their defense is top-notch as well and should limit Macedonia's scoring ability.

 

[chriscol]

i like for today:

Germany -2.5
Czech -1
Spain -3.5,-5 !! 2 units!!
Danemark -2
Albania +1.5,+2
Swe -2 !! 2 units!!

 

[szlem]

I think there's a value in the France-Cyprus game. +3 is a lot, considering that France is no longer a France of the past (and have trouble winning not to mention winning that high), and Cyprus isn't that weak anymoreSpain should win and cover also - and thanks for the idea of Wales game going under the total - it is very posiible outcome and I go for it. Games in that region (Georgia, Armenia etc) are always tough to play and Welsh are not the best team in Europe
I see the Swedes winning by 2 goals margin (I saw the fragments of their game against Croatia and they showed nothing), but don't think they will go higher than that, playing without Ibrahimovic and Ljundberg so no bet for me
I wonder why Italians are only -1,5 favs against Moldova, even though they don't need this game and will not probably use their basic line-up. They have enough talent to win with Moldovians by 2, wonder if they have enougn will to do it

 

[szlem]

One more game stands out for me, Portugal vs Latvia by 1,5. Latvians are remembered for their good start in Euro champs, but IMO they declined. See value here, as Portugese have something to prove in front of home crowd

 

[MarkieMark+]

and thanks for the idea of Wales game going under the total - it is very posiible outcome and I go for it. Games in that region (Georgia, Armenia etc) are always tough to play and Welsh are not the best team in Europe

This game is being played in Wales

 

[quantumleap]

i like for today:

Germany -2.5
Czech -1
Spain -3.5,-5 !! 2 units!!
Danemark -2
Albania +1.5,+2
Swe -2 !! 2 units!!

bol chris.

 

[quantumleap]

I think there's a value in the France-Cyprus game. +3 is a lot, considering that France is no longer a France of the past (and have trouble winning not to mention winning that high), and Cyprus isn't that weak anymoreSpain should win and cover also - and thanks for the idea of Wales game going under the total - it is very posiible outcome and I go for it. Games in that region (Georgia, Armenia etc) are always tough to play and Welsh are not the best team in Europe
I see the Swedes winning by 2 goals margin (I saw the fragments of their game against Croatia and they showed nothing), but don't think they will go higher than that, playing without Ibrahimovic and Ljundberg so no bet for me
I wonder why Italians are only -1,5 favs against Moldova, even though they don't need this game and will not probably use their basic line-up. They have enough talent to win with Moldovians by 2, wonder if they have enougn will to do it

I read somewher that Ibrahimovic would be returning although I can't imagine he would be at full-strength so I stayed away from that one.

I also stayed away from the Italian match since they have their playoff spot wrapped-up.

Good luck!

 

[quantumleap]

Czech Republic/Finland over 2.5 -108
The Czechs will not come up blank here (please pardon the pun) as they are one of the highest scoring teams in the European section of the WCQ. They have scored 32 goals in 11 matches and must win their game to get a berth in Germany. Finland is not necessarily the best defensive team either. The previous match between these 2 teams ended with a score of 4:3.

This one goes over at the 58-minute mark. The Czechs scored early at 7 minutes. I was afraid they were going to play defensively for the win but were able to score 2 more goals.

Most other matches start around 2:30 pm EDT.

 

[szlem]

This game is being played in Wales

damn, you're right! goofed on this one, however under is still a good bet
arty: POLAND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!arty:

 

[quantumleap]

I read somewher that Ibrahimovic would be returning although I can't imagine he would be at full-strength so I stayed away from that one.

I also stayed away from the Italian match since they have their playoff spot wrapped-up.

Good luck!

Sorry. I meant that I stayed away from Denmark at -2. I still stand by my Sweden -2 pick. I see that Ibrahimovic scores a goal but it's 1-1. Hopefully the goal by Iceland will scare some effort into the Swedes.