WCQ - ***Canada vs. Cuba*** Fri. Oct 12, 2012 7:45pm ET

[ARUKIDNME]

***These Teams Can’t Score***

Canada vs. Cuba

· Cuba has been eliminated.
· Cuba is scoreless in its four (4) group stage matches.
· Cuba has lost their last 12 internationals.
· Cuba has only scored one (1) goal in their last 12 matches.
· Canada has only scored 2 goals in the four (4) group matches.

The last WCQ that Cuba played away from home in a cold weather climate was on October 11, 2008 in Washington DC against the USA. The weather that day was a LOW of 54°F and an average of 65°F. The weather was cool but not freezing cold. Cuba lost 6-1.

On Friday October 12th in Toronto, the weather will be a HIGH of 50°F and a LOW of 34°F. There is a 40% chance of rain and it will be windy. It will be close to freezing and if it rains....LOOK OUT!!!

The weather in Cuba this whole week has been a low of 77̊F and a high of 85°F with 89% humidity.

Cuba: ALL the players play in Cuba for local clubs with the exception of one forward that plays in El Salvador. None of the players are exposed or have ever played in the harsh cold Canadian autumn weather or any cold weather for that matter.

Canada: Seven (7) of Canada’s players play in the MLS and the balance play in Europe throughout the winter. Only the 2nd team keeper plays in Turkey and it’s in the 70’s there, but he will not play Friday.

Extra Info: The Cubans will be complaining about the weather. I am not Spanish but I speak it and I hope to attend the open practice that Cuba will have in Toronto. I expect to hear complaints from the players but not in front of the manager. Look, they don’t want to be here. The cold will bother them and their practice will end up being rather unproductive as they go through the motions.

I also expect Canada to push for as many goals as they can get in 90’. They have discussed this issue as a team. Canada knows that Goal Differential (GD) may be the decider for Canada when it comes down to the final match in Honduras and they don’t want to take chances. Honduras is currently +2 in GD and Canada is even.

Canada is missing 2 starters. Hume is in for injured DeRosario and Klukowski is in for Morgan (tactical).

If Honduras lose to Panama and Canada beat Cuba (the likely scenario) then even if Canada loses the final match it will be GD that decides it.

I don’t know what else to say with respect to this match, but based on what I have revealed above and the need to score; I think you can make an informed decision.

Canada is not a goal scoring machine, and I know that RoundRobin11 has made the Under 2.5 his play of the day. He in all likelihood should cash in on this wager. Both teams just suck at scoring goals. With DeRo out it makes it even tougher.

But I can't help but sense that there is a Perfect Storm Brewing Friday in Toronto. RR11 was at the last match and he should remember what I am about to reveal.

The last time a Warm Weather country played here was St. Kitts last year on November 16, 2011 for a WCQ. It was 36°F at game time (I was there on the sideline and it was cold). Canada just came back from playing in St. Kitts on November 12, 2011 and was only able to get a DRAW 0-0. In Toronto, with temperatures close to freezing, Canada Won 4-0.

Look I've been at field level for all of Canada's qualifiers and in many cases they should have scored at least one or two more goals than they have. Hitting posts and just missing on headers, this team is on the edge of a good goal scoring match and it won't be in Honduras Tuesday. Did I just say Simeon Jackson? OOPS!

Canada -2 (+120) 2 Units
Canada 3-0 EXACT SCORE (+450) 1 Units
Canada vs. Cuba Over 2.5 (-150) 3 Units

Have a great weekend!

I will be at the CAN vs. CUB match and immediately after heading to Ann Arbor for Homecoming Saturday against Illinois.

GO CANADA and GO BLUE!!!

!~))!!~))!!~))!

 

[rolltide]

yeah, i wouldn't be backing under 2.5 in this match as Canada is trailing both Honduras and Panama in goal differential and this is the ONLY game to make those #'s up.

Right now...

Panama 9 +4
Honduras 7 +2
Canada 7 +0

final round is Canada in Honduras which is a really tough game for them. If Honduras lose in Panama then that final hex spot all comes down to Hond/Canada match as Panama will have been qualified. Canada MUST go down to Honduras with 10 points and a nice gd advantage so that they could lose by a goal, or even two, and still advance. This is not a game to stop at 2 or 3 or even 4-0 advantage...keep scoring.

Cuba have lost 7 straight games, all to nil, so really no reason why a 3-0 4-0 5-0 can't be laid down here. Of course Cuba are known for their unwillingness to go forward so must score early and get them out of their shell

 

[roundrobin11]

yeah, i wouldn't be backing under 2.5 in this match as Canada is trailing both Honduras and Panama in goal differential and this is the ONLY game to make those #'s up.

Right now...

Panama 9 +4
Honduras 7 +2
Canada 7 +0

final round is Canada in Honduras which is a really tough game for them. If Honduras lose in Panama then that final hex spot all comes down to Hond/Canada match as Panama will have been qualified. Canada MUST go down to Honduras with 10 points and a nice gd advantage so that they could lose by a goal, or even two, and still advance. This is not a game to stop at 2 or 3 or even 4-0 advantage...keep scoring.

Cuba have lost 7 straight games, all to nil, so really no reason why a 3-0 4-0 5-0 can't be laid down here. Of course Cuba are known for their unwillingness to go forward so must score early and get them out of their shell

Canada can score 10 goals in this match and it wouldn't help their goal differential. When it comes down to tie breakers, all that counts is "goals scored in matches among the teams tied." Meaning if Canada, Panama and Honduras were to finish with 10 points a piece, goal differential would be taken from matches played amongst these three teams, the Cuba games would be thrown out the window.

Canada will look to just escape this game with three points. They know how important the game vs. Honduras is, so they will be looking ahead to Tuesday. Cuba have been eliminated meaning they have nothing to play for. They will be more relaxed and loose, likely playing a strong team game. While Cuba isn't good, they have played well on the road holding teams to one or two goals. Yes, Canada has had their chances, but they don't have the quality or the go to guy up front who can convert on a lot of these chances. I think we will see Canada dominate this game, but once they take the lead they will play a bit more conservative and ensure they walk out of this with three points setting up a final showdown with Honduras.

My prediction: 1-0 Canada

GL to you both though, don't like to be on opposite sides, but what can ya do!

 

[Mutiny]

Canada will no doubt try to put 4 or 5 past Cuba as the GD will indeed matter.

Here's the tiebreaker rules for WCQ per the USSoccer website:

a) Greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) Goal difference in all group matches;
c) Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches;

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings shall be determined as follows:

d) Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) Goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) Greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) The goals scored away from home count double between the teams concerned (if the tie is only between two teams).

 

[roundrobin11]

Canada will no doubt try to put 4 or 5 past Cuba as the GD will indeed matter.

Here's the tiebreaker rules for WCQ per the USSoccer website:

a) Greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) Goal difference in all group matches;
c) Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches;

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings shall be determined as follows:

d) Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) Goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) Greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) The goals scored away from home count double between the teams concerned (if the tie is only between two teams).

unless I'm way off here, I was told the tie breaker is goal difference in games played between the teams in question. So if Canada, Panama and Honduras finish with 10pts a piece, the tie breaker would be goal difference in the 6 games they played against each other... i'll look into it now though to confirm which is correct. This makes a big difference without a doubt. Thanks for bringing this up Mutiny

 

[roundrobin11]

You are correct.

In all group tournaments, three points are awarded for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss. FIFA has set the order of the tie-breakers for teams that finish level on points:

1. goal difference in all group matches
2. greater number of goals scored in all group matches

Where teams are still not able to be separated, the following tie-breakers are used:

1. greater number of points obtained in matches between the tied teams
2. goal difference in matches between the tied teams
3. greater number of goals scored in matches between the tied teams

I'm sticking with the under though. Canada doesn't have the firepower up front to score more than two IMO. GL fellas, let's have a winning day tomorrow!

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Excellent points and great info from all. My gut tells me the fix in Panama vs. Honduras is in play and I will play 2 units on the Draw. Making the HEX is too important to these countries.

I stated it in my post and I will state it again.....

RoundRobin11 is 100% correct in taking the under in this match. These teams can't get it past the goal line.

My approach here is purely weather and GD motivation. All the sports writers and Hart the manager are stating that its going to be tough playing Cuba. Cuba is tough on the road. They are right.

But the weather at BMO Field and the wind blowing in that cold breeze is enough to make me side with Canada.

No matter how much they want to play spoiler, Cuba will not hurt Canada's chances. They will hold back and lose.

Keep in mind that Canada spends a boat load of money in Cuba via tourism and we all know soccer is fixed. So let me put 2 and 2 together and see what I get.....

Canada wins 3-0.

 

[DialSquares]

cuba loses big because of tourism dollars....love the conspiracy reasons. To me betting the total is a complete crapshoot because of the 2-0 or 3-0 score. Either one is just as likely as the other. If I bet for club or country i'd go with the -2 as Aruk did ... hard to see cuba scoring (probably not snowing in T.O. like it is in Timmins) but should still be pretty cold and Cuba had 0 chances to score in Cuba I think. Canada won't play the goal difference game...win here and beat hondurus and then we can get creamed by mexico and usa ....

but 2-0 3-0 makes total sense to me so Canada -2 would be my play....or Cuba draw no bet because we are well known to choke by this time or earlier....

 

[rolltide]

cuba loses big because of tourism dollars....love the conspiracy reasons. ...

well i guess if ESPN can publish an article stating the US beating A&B is no sure thing because they left off a striker that hasn't scored in a year then tourism fixes don't seem all that outlandish

canada have solid strikers (that score at club level at least), good speed, and a nice defense. none of that will make a shit load of difference when honduras spanks them but for sure it's enough to put 3 in cuba's net

 

[DialSquares]

canada have solid strikers

not having occean was a big blow last match....i watch a lot of german football and he is certainly solid..i would love him and jackson to start up front...no reason not to unless they plan to hold off the duo until the next match. But 12 European club players --- damn --- we are so close to being a hex team or more but i just don't see a result in hondurus...god i hope so though...

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Sorry about the Conspiracy Theory but it really does feel right in this situation.

Look Cuba isn't bad....they're just playing in the cold and it will feel like playing in a meet locker for 90'.

I really think Canada bring it Friday and make a dent on the score board.

Win or lose on the wager is secondary. I really want to see Canada advance. Going to the Hex will be awesome.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

SCENARIOS

Panama (9 points)
Honduras (7 points)
Canada (7 points)
Cuba (0 points)

Remaining games for Canada:

... vs. Cuba (tonight)
... at Honduras (Oct. 16)

Canada will advance with …

• Consecutive wins over Cuba and Honduras.
• Consecutive draws combined with a Honduras loss in Panama.
• A win in Honduras combined with a Honduras loss in Panama.
• A draw in Honduras combined with Canada beating Cuba and a Honduras loss in Panama.
• A loss in Honduras combined with a Honduras loss/tie in Panama and Canada beating Cuba by three or more goals.

The last scenario is the one that sticks out the most.

A loss in Honduras combined with a Honduras loss/tie in Panama and Canada beating Cuba by three or more goals as it stands right now.

Honduras will likely not beat Panama. So a LOSS or DRAW is the likely outcome. Canada needs to win by 3 goals and Cuba will be made aware of this as well.

 

[roundrobin11]

I like that last scenario... I'll be on under as I'm expecting a 1-0 scoreline. So the 2.5 at + money is too much for me to pass up. HOWEVER, I will still be rooting for a big Canada win. A BIG win. If they win 4-0, I will in no way be upset about losing my total play. Too much love for this Canada team. Would love nothing more than to see them in the Hex.

GL tmrw Aruk, see thee rise!

 

[DialSquares]

seems strange the team total for canada over 2.5 goals is -120...that's a line set for Puerto Rico but in normal circumstances not for Cuba. The last scenerio certainly plays into the line being where it is but really makes me think the over 2.5 goals is a strong possibilty. My only issue is we see this all the time - teams need to win big and end up 1-0 2-0 because the other side parks the bus just to prevent something from happening. And Canada probably needs all three and the need for goals might play into their minds and we Silva ourselves by missing the net by 10 feet....i'm waiting for lineups...our crack staff could easily outhink themselves and maybe start Ricketts as a lone striker...haha.....Canada 3-0 and Panama win....sounds good to me

 

[rolltide]

Sorry about the Conspiracy Theory but it really does feel right in this situation.

Look Cuba isn't bad....they're just playing in the cold and it will feel like playing in a meet locker for 90'.

I really think Canada bring it Friday and make a dent on the score board.

Win or lose on the wager is secondary. I really want to see Canada advance. Going to the Hex will be awesome.

uh, yes they are. when you don't score a goal in 7 straight defeats against powerhouses like Jamaica, Canada, Panama, and Bolivia...you're bad

I know Canada are not a team to trust for goals but it's all in their hands now....even a loss in honduras will advance them by beating the out of a really poor Cuban team

 

[ARUKIDNME]

OK. I placed my wagers with B365.

But I found it strange that The Greek and Pinnacle are not taking action on this match.

So, I know a Canadian kid who's brother is working in Turks an Cacos for Pinny and he does just soccer.

I asked him to send his brother a note to find out why no lines are available. His message back was....."They're not buying that wine, it's bad."

So that's the coded message Dan got back.

I think I made a mistake putting money on this one. I have no idea what the "F" he means by that statement.

 

[DialSquares]

i don't think i've seen a non-italian or non-eastern-european game be taken off the board...i hope it means Cuba is lying down for us and not that Canada is taking the money on a 1-0 win. I guarantee we on this board will know 15-20 mins in if a fix is in and who fixed what......if we play like shit I will be calling the RCMP at Halftime....

 

[DialSquares]

canada -2 is -101 at pinny now.....gotta take it at those odds fix or not...

 

[rolltide]

cuba showed up with only 11 players...

no subs now even if injured.

 

[DialSquares]

maybe they were worried about defections....crazy...never heard that in my life....