Washington vs Philadelphia on 11/14 by blackwiseguy
32
FINAL
21
Game Washington
+11½ -110
WIN
Won 4.55
Handicapper Analysis
0
Washington veteran receiver Curtis Samuel had seven grabs for 48 yards receiving the last time these teams met and will be vital to the Commanders' success in Week 10.
Samuel is starting to build better chemistry with QB Taylor Heinicke and has posted receiving efforts of 53, 50, and most recently 65 yards in the three games since Heinicke took over as the starter for the injured Carson Wentz.
Last week’s output was a bit weird, as 49 of those 65 yards came on a reckless bomb into triple coverage in which the game official took out one of the Vikings defenders and allowed Samuel to make the grab for the deep touchdown.
While that bonkers play may take the shine off Samuel’s stats, it should also be noted that he wasn’t targeted once in the final 15 minutes of the game and finished with three grabs on four targets – or two catches for 16 yards if you take that lucky shot out of the mix.
Offensive coordinator Scott Turner took heat for the Commanders’ play-calling in the home stretch vs. Minnesota, as Samuel and Terry McLaurin were both ignored on offense in that fourth-quarter collapse without a single target between the two of them. Turner took notes and is preaching consistency ahead of this primetime outing.
Samuel’s prop total for Monday Night Football sits as low as 39.5 yards in Week 10 – his lowest number since Week 1. But given the defensive setup for the Eagles, there’s a good shot he could eclipse this number and go Over his receiving yard prop for the fourth straight game.
Schematically, Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon leans into zone coverage to protect against the deep ball and keeps opponents in front of this very talented front seven. That means Philly will look to take away the speedy McLaurin, who had 102 yards through the air back in Week 3.
McLaurin will draw coverage from outside corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry, leaving more room for Samuel to work underneath on shorter routes into space. Samuel sees the bulk of his snaps out of the slot, and the Eagles just so happen to be down two slot corners heading into this game with Avonte Maddox and Josh Jobe out of action.
That leaves Josiah Scott as the next man up covering the slot. Scott was slowed by an ankle injury which limited him in practice Thursday and Friday and at 5-foot-9 and 185 pounds, he’s undersized even against a 5-foot-11 and 195-pound Samuel.
Washington does have other receiving options back in the mix, which could take touches away from Samuel. Rookie WR Jahan Dotson is making his first appearance since suffering a hamstring injury in Week 4 and TE Logan Thomas was back last week after missing nearly a month. However, Dotson hasn’t had many reps with Heinicke, and Thomas was targeted only three times for a goose egg in receptions in Week 9.
The game script also paints a potent picture for the passing props, with Washington pegged as an 11-point underdog and likely playing from behind for the bulk of this contest. That means a probable uptick in passing snaps for a playbook that has gone from throwing on 67% of snaps under Wentz to just 50.5% the past three games with Heinicke at the helm.
Samuel is starting to build better chemistry with QB Taylor Heinicke and has posted receiving efforts of 53, 50, and most recently 65 yards in the three games since Heinicke took over as the starter for the injured Carson Wentz.
Last week’s output was a bit weird, as 49 of those 65 yards came on a reckless bomb into triple coverage in which the game official took out one of the Vikings defenders and allowed Samuel to make the grab for the deep touchdown.
While that bonkers play may take the shine off Samuel’s stats, it should also be noted that he wasn’t targeted once in the final 15 minutes of the game and finished with three grabs on four targets – or two catches for 16 yards if you take that lucky shot out of the mix.
Offensive coordinator Scott Turner took heat for the Commanders’ play-calling in the home stretch vs. Minnesota, as Samuel and Terry McLaurin were both ignored on offense in that fourth-quarter collapse without a single target between the two of them. Turner took notes and is preaching consistency ahead of this primetime outing.
Samuel’s prop total for Monday Night Football sits as low as 39.5 yards in Week 10 – his lowest number since Week 1. But given the defensive setup for the Eagles, there’s a good shot he could eclipse this number and go Over his receiving yard prop for the fourth straight game.
Schematically, Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon leans into zone coverage to protect against the deep ball and keeps opponents in front of this very talented front seven. That means Philly will look to take away the speedy McLaurin, who had 102 yards through the air back in Week 3.
McLaurin will draw coverage from outside corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry, leaving more room for Samuel to work underneath on shorter routes into space. Samuel sees the bulk of his snaps out of the slot, and the Eagles just so happen to be down two slot corners heading into this game with Avonte Maddox and Josh Jobe out of action.
That leaves Josiah Scott as the next man up covering the slot. Scott was slowed by an ankle injury which limited him in practice Thursday and Friday and at 5-foot-9 and 185 pounds, he’s undersized even against a 5-foot-11 and 195-pound Samuel.
Washington does have other receiving options back in the mix, which could take touches away from Samuel. Rookie WR Jahan Dotson is making his first appearance since suffering a hamstring injury in Week 4 and TE Logan Thomas was back last week after missing nearly a month. However, Dotson hasn’t had many reps with Heinicke, and Thomas was targeted only three times for a goose egg in receptions in Week 9.
The game script also paints a potent picture for the passing props, with Washington pegged as an 11-point underdog and likely playing from behind for the bulk of this contest. That means a probable uptick in passing snaps for a playbook that has gone from throwing on 67% of snaps under Wentz to just 50.5% the past three games with Heinicke at the helm.
