Wake Forest vs North Carolina State on 11/05 by blackwiseguy
21
FINAL
30
Game North Carolina State
+3½ -108
WIN
Won 4.65
Handicapper Analysis
0
NC State doesn't have the horses to score enough here but not only that, Wake Forest hasn't lost back-to-back games since September 2020. This is a perfect buy-low spot for the Demon Deacons, and I expect them to win this one by double-digits.
The Wolfpack will roll out its third different quarterback of the season in MJ Morris this weekend. In its last game, a win against Virginia Tech, NC State scored its first touchdown since star QB Devin Leary went down.
Morris came into the game and sparked a pretty impressive double-digit comeback win, throwing over 250 yards along with three touchdowns. It was memorable and likely what led to this spread being closer than it otherwise would have been. However, I'm not entirely convinced he can replicate this success.
The element of surprise will be gone, and Wake Forest will have some film on Morris to prepare for. There's a reason he was a third-string quarterback to start the season. He's facing the task of trying to go point for point with one of the better offenses in the ACC, and I'm not sure I can trust him to do that.
The other side of this is that I expect Wake Forest to atone for one of its worst offensive performances in some time that it had last week against Louisville. Wake scored 21 points (which included a garbage-time touchdown) and had eight total turnovers. I trust that head coach Dave Clawson will have his team, particularly his offense, ready to respond.
Even after last week's disappointment, Wake still ranks second in the ACC in PPG, third in total offense, and second in passing offense. Louisville slowed it down last week with an incredible rate of pressure that included a .23 havoc rate from its front seven and eight sacks.
This is something I don't expect NC State to be able to replicate. The numbers rate the Wolfpack as an excellent defense but not one that has overall positional dominance at one spot. Those are the defenses that Wake Forest has feasted on.
We're in a tremendous situational spot here. NC State is coming off an emotional comeback win with a third-string QB who caught lightning in a bottle. Wake Forest is a veteran team coming off one of its most embarrassing losses in recent memory. I trust this Demon Deacons' offense more than any other aspect of this game. I'll back them to score enough to get the cover.
The Wolfpack will roll out its third different quarterback of the season in MJ Morris this weekend. In its last game, a win against Virginia Tech, NC State scored its first touchdown since star QB Devin Leary went down.
Morris came into the game and sparked a pretty impressive double-digit comeback win, throwing over 250 yards along with three touchdowns. It was memorable and likely what led to this spread being closer than it otherwise would have been. However, I'm not entirely convinced he can replicate this success.
The element of surprise will be gone, and Wake Forest will have some film on Morris to prepare for. There's a reason he was a third-string quarterback to start the season. He's facing the task of trying to go point for point with one of the better offenses in the ACC, and I'm not sure I can trust him to do that.
The other side of this is that I expect Wake Forest to atone for one of its worst offensive performances in some time that it had last week against Louisville. Wake scored 21 points (which included a garbage-time touchdown) and had eight total turnovers. I trust that head coach Dave Clawson will have his team, particularly his offense, ready to respond.
Even after last week's disappointment, Wake still ranks second in the ACC in PPG, third in total offense, and second in passing offense. Louisville slowed it down last week with an incredible rate of pressure that included a .23 havoc rate from its front seven and eight sacks.
This is something I don't expect NC State to be able to replicate. The numbers rate the Wolfpack as an excellent defense but not one that has overall positional dominance at one spot. Those are the defenses that Wake Forest has feasted on.
We're in a tremendous situational spot here. NC State is coming off an emotional comeback win with a third-string QB who caught lightning in a bottle. Wake Forest is a veteran team coming off one of its most embarrassing losses in recent memory. I trust this Demon Deacons' offense more than any other aspect of this game. I'll back them to score enough to get the cover.
