Villanova vs Connecticut on 12/28 by Jay_Robinson

This might be the best team that UConn (13-0 SU, 11-1-1 ATS) have ever assembled, judging by their plus-27.34 on the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference. But the models say we should take Under 137 instead, even though the Huskies have the Over at 8-5 thus far. Maybe it’s because they have the No. 4-ranked defense on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts.

Or maybe it’s because of Villanova (Over 7-5) and their traditionally glacial pace: No. 339 out of the 363 Division I teams in Adjusted Tempo. This is a rebuilding year for ‘Nova under first-year head coach Kyle Neptune, a former assistant under Jay Wright since 2013. Give it time.