Valspar Championship PGA

[MAGAking1]

This is a excerpt from long post, click link if you want it all

The Starter - Valspar Championship | Underdog Network

Golf news and updates for the 2023 Valspar Championship. Follow Underdog Golf for more.

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Valspar Championship(March 16th-19th, 2023)​

• Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) - Palm Harbor, FL
• Event #20 of the 2022-23 FedExCup Regular Season
• Full-field cut event

Overview​

The final stop of the Florida Swing is the Tampa Bay area for the Valspar Championship. Coming off two consecutive elevated events with stacked fields, this week's Valspar Championship is understandably going to feel like a step-down.

Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, and Keegan Bradley headline a field devoid of tons of highly-ranked golfers. You have two 2022 major champions in JT and Fitz who feel like they're searching for that spark from a season ago, Keegan trying to play his way onto the Ryder Cup team, Spieth rounding into form, and Fleetwood still seeking his first PGA Tour victory.

Though perhaps the biggest storyline of the week is Sam Burns attempting to become the first player to win the same event in three consecutive years since Steve Stricker (John Deere Classic, 2009-2011).

Additionally, if you're excited to watch the potential PGA Tour stars of tomorrow–Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Pierceson Coody, and so on–get an opportunity to compete then there's even more to look forward to this week at Innisbrook.

The Valspar Championship was established in 2000 and has been played at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort each year.

The Copperhead Course is known well for the "Snake Pit," another one of these stretches of holes on the PGA Tour that has earned a daunting nickname for playing so tough.

The Snake Pit is not quite as difficult as the Bear Trap or the finishing three holes at Quail Hollow, but nonetheless, holes 16, 17, and 18 at the Copperhead Course definitely make for a great closing stretch at Valspar.

The Course​

While Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course has yielded some favorable scoring and a winning score at -17 in each of the last two seasons, historically this tree-lined venue presents a lot of challenges.

Water comes into play on half the holes but ultimately is not nearly as much of a factor as all of the other Florida Swing courses. There are several holes where water forces a layup off-the-tee or is just something to play away from, leading to more challenging second shots. Several doglegs also tend to force players to hit less than driver off-the-tee.

When you also add in 3.75-inch rough that comes into play on some of the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, the Copperhead Course requires a certain level of precision and being in the right position in the fairways.

In most years, the par-3s at the Copperhead Course lean toward the more difficult side. Much of this is due to length–on this year's scorecard, all four par-3 holes measure 195+ yards long. Holes 8 and 17 measure 215+ yards. (These numbers will vary though based on pin location and where the tee boxes are set up.)

In 2018 and 2019, the par-4s and par-5s both ranked near the top in terms of scoring difficulty on the PGA Tour. Again, length plays a big factor on these holes, whether it's the 600+ yard par-5 5th or the par-4 3rd that doglegs over water to cause a long approach shot.

Thick rough surrounding some of the more narrow fairways on TOUR can also contribute towards making these par-4s and par-5s more challenging.

The greens-in-regulation percentage at the 2018 Valspar was just 60.2% (the second-lowest on the PGA Tour that season). In 2019, the greens-in-regulation percentage was 59.7% which was the lowest on the PGA Tour that season.

Altogether, Innisbrook's Copperhead Course tends to present a good test of golf and really requires players to be dialed in tee-to-green. If the winds are up this week then the course expects to play even tougher.

Course Snapshot

• Architect: Larry Packard (1971)
• Yards: 7,340 (Par 71)
• Fairway: Ryegrass overseed
• Rough: 3.75" Ryegrass overseed
• Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
• Avg. green size: 5,822 sq. ft.
• Sand Bunkers: 74
• Number of Water Hazards: 8
• Number of Holes Water is in Play: 9
• Changes to the course:
  • Rough height increased to 3.75" from 3" in previous years
  • Intermediate cut width around greens was decreased from 72" to 21" to bring the rough closer to the greens
  • The fairways are overseeded (they were not overseeded in 2021 since the event was played at the end of April)
    

    Valspar Championship(March 16th-19th, 2023)​

  • Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) - Palm Harbor, FL
  • Event #20 of the 2022-23 FedExCup Regular Season
  • Full-field cut event
    Overview
  The final stop of the Florida Swing is the Tampa Bay area for the Valspar Championship. Coming off two consecutive elevated events with stacked fields, this week's Valspar Championship is understandably going to feel like a step-down.
  Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, and Keegan Bradley headline a field devoid of tons of highly-ranked golfers. You have two 2022 major champions in JT and Fitz who feel like they're searching for that spark from a season ago, Keegan trying to play his way onto the Ryder Cup team, Spieth rounding into form, and Fleetwood still seeking his first PGA Tour victory.
  Though perhaps the biggest storyline of the week is Sam Burns attempting to become the first player to win the same event in three consecutive years since Steve Stricker (John Deere Classic, 2009-2011).
  Additionally, if you're excited to watch the potential PGA Tour stars of tomorrow–Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Pierceson Coody, and so on–get an opportunity to compete then there's even more to look forward to this week at Innisbrook.
  
  
  
  The Valspar Championship was established in 2000 and has been played at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort each year.
  The Copperhead Course is known well for the "Snake Pit," another one of these stretches of holes on the PGA Tour that has earned a daunting nickname for playing so tough.
  The Snake Pit is not quite as difficult as the Bear Trap or the finishing three holes at Quail Hollow, but nonetheless, holes 16, 17, and 18 at the Copperhead Course definitely make for a great closing stretch at Valspar.
  

  The Course​

  While Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course has yielded some favorable scoring and a winning score at -17 in each of the last two seasons, historically this tree-lined venue presents a lot of challenges.
  Water comes into play on half the holes but ultimately is not nearly as much of a factor as all of the other Florida Swing courses. There are several holes where water forces a layup off-the-tee or is just something to play away from, leading to more challenging second shots. Several doglegs also tend to force players to hit less than driver off-the-tee.
  When you also add in 3.75-inch rough that comes into play on some of the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, the Copperhead Course requires a certain level of precision and being in the right position in the fairways.
  In most years, the par-3s at the Copperhead Course lean toward the more difficult side. Much of this is due to length–on this year's scorecard, all four par-3 holes measure 195+ yards long. Holes 8 and 17 measure 215+ yards. (These numbers will vary though based on pin location and where the tee boxes are set up.)
  In 2018 and 2019, the par-4s and par-5s both ranked near the top in terms of scoring difficulty on the PGA Tour. Again, length plays a big factor on these holes, whether it's the 600+ yard par-5 5th or the par-4 3rd that doglegs over water to cause a long approach shot.
  Thick rough surrounding some of the more narrow fairways on TOUR can also contribute towards making these par-4s and par-5s more challenging.
  The greens-in-regulation percentage at the 2018 Valspar was just 60.2% (the second-lowest on the PGA Tour that season). In 2019, the greens-in-regulation percentage was 59.7% which was the lowest on the PGA Tour that season.
  Altogether, Innisbrook's Copperhead Course tends to present a good test of golf and really requires players to be dialed in tee-to-green. If the winds are up this week then the course expects to play even tougher.
  Course Snapshot
• Architect: Larry Packard (1971)
• Yards: 7,340 (Par 71)
• Fairway: Ryegrass overseed
• Rough: 3.75" Ryegrass overseed
• Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
• Avg. green size: 5,822 sq. ft.
• Sand Bunkers: 74
• Number of Water Hazards: 8
• Number of Holes Water is in Play: 9
• Changes to the course:
  • Rough height increased to 3.75" from 3" in previous years
  • Intermediate cut width around greens was decreased from 72" to 21" to bring the rough closer to the greens
  • The fairways are overseeded (they were not overseeded in 2021 since the event was played at the end of April)

 

[MAGAking1]

Can Sam Burns win this event for the 3rd year in a row?

He is around 16 to 1

 

[MAGAking1]

Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. However, finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they select a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Valspar Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds.
Another Scottie Scheffler runaway win is in the books, and we head a few hours south and to the Gulf side as the PGA Tour wraps up its Florida swing. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club awaits, and much like the last non-elevated event, we find a top-heavy field set to take on a tricky course.
Sam Burns (+1600) is the two-time defending champion and is rightfully priced just behind the favorites this week. While Burns has been a reliable winner over the past three years, a three-peat is among the rarest feats in professional golf, and we'll pass on that happening in favor of a more seasoned favorite. Beyond Burns and three other big names, the field thins quite drastically. With the new schedule staggering huge events in quick succession, this week is another breather, but it is perhaps our best chance to nab a mid-range winner.
With narrow fairways muting the importance of driving and, frankly, most of the top drivers nowhere in site, approach play takes center stage this week. Some scrambling and recovery will be important with 74 bunkers, so we don't want to ignore those stats. But iron play is the primary target. In addition to course history, we'll examine records at PGA National, the other challenging Florida course that now has a similar field for its annual tournament.
For more info on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, along with this week's key stats, check out Brandon Gdula's primer. All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

At The Top​

Justin Thomas (+1000) - Thomas had mixed results early in his career at Innisbrook, finishing T10, missed cut, T18, and missed cut, but he's found some success the past two years after adding it back to his schedule. He improved on a T13 in 2021 with a T3 last year, gaining off the tee, on approach, and around the green in both seasons. He has to be disappointed with his efforts the past two months in the big payday possibilities, and JT is not one to stand on the sidelines out of contention for long. He finished fourth at the WM Phoenix Open but needed a Sunday 65 to shoot up the leaderboard and still lost by six strokes to Scheffler. He's made all the cuts but hasn't finished better than 20th aside from Phoenix, and this is a get-right spot at a course he likes that suits his strengths.

Value Picks​

Davis Riley (+3100) - We're banking on a Burns-ish breakthrough for Riley this week. Despite a bizarro week on the course, he was runner-up last year in a playoff thanks to a 32-foot birdie from Burns. His strength is iron play, in which he ranks 29th on Tour this season, but last year he gained off the tee, around the green, and putting but was -0.62 with his irons, according to stats from datagolf. Some confidence will be key for him, as he enters off a missed cut but right on the heels of T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T29 at the Honda Classic. Outclassed in the elevated events, Riley has a chance to make his mark this week, and this is a great spot on his schedule.

Long Shots​

Ben Martin (+6500) - Just ahead of Davis in the strokes gained: approach season rankings is Martin, at 28th. He held his own without making much noise at Sawgrass, shooting four rounds in the 70s and finishing T54. But before that, he was T5 at the Honda Classic and T13 at Pebble Beach, the two events in the last month and a half that didn't have all the big boys in the field. Still searching for his first career victory, he is in some of the best short-term form of his career, with consecutive top 20s and another made cut a highlight for him since 2016. Hard to fully trust but undoubtedly striking our fancy, Martin is also someone I am backing as the Leader After Round 1 (+7000).
Matthew NeSmith (+8000) - Nesmith's strength over his career has been iron play, and he has room to improve at just 70th in the Tour's strokes gained: approach metric after finishing 30th, 11th, and 23rd the past three years. He tied for 3rd here last year and was 21st the year before, and while the recent form leaves much to be desired, he's been dancing with the world's elite of late. A T39 at the Arnold Palmer and three missed cuts over his last four events, NeSmith had just one round in the 60s over that span. Contrast that with his fall swing, in which he racked up three straight top 10s and broke 70 all but twice in those 12 rounds. The peak performance is there, waiting for the right field and event, and at 80/1, he's worth a flier.
Kevin Kisner (+14000) - A big number even for the wayward Kisner, who's been out of sorts for most of the season. The carrot here is the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play coming up in two weeks. Kisner was runner-up to Scheffler there last year and has won the Match Play before, and he needs to find some semblance of form to get his game into gear. There are fewer and fewer opportunities for a golfer in Kisner's mold to have a real shot at a premier event, and letting one pass is Kisner's path to irrelevancy. Innisbrook does not require massive length off the tee, so Kisner stands a chance here. Solid-if-unspectacular finishes of T33, missed cut, and T24 in the past three editions here are enough for me to consider him for a Top 40 Finish (+240).

 

[peanuts]

I'm not really following Golf, but do you know any books that offer lines for this event?

 

[MAGAking1]

I'm not really following Golf, but do you know any books that offer lines for this event?

All the above lines come from Fanduel

 

[peanuts]

All the above lines come from Fanduel

Great. Thanks, I will check it out.