UTEP vs Southern Miss 11/17/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with UTEP winning 51% of simulations, and Southern Miss 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. UTEP commits fewer turnovers in 41% of simulations and they go on to win 62% when they take care of the ball. Southern Miss wins 63% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Nathan Jeffery is averaging 78 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 65%. Desmond Johnson is averaging 70 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (28% chance) then he helps his team win 63%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is SMISS +3.5
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