IMO the more accurate number would be 14 or 17.
I haven't been to as many practices as I normally get to in the summer, but I have been to a few.
USC is still in the vanilla mode, and with Lienart having a gimpy arm, I wouold expect that to continue.
They have been running a lot of screens and running plays, and that generally doesn't bode well for a team that has to basically win by 3 TDs.
Not to mention that their defense has never been any good at stuffing the run. Even last year they weren't all that great at stopping the run, and with the losses up front that probably won't be any different this year. That is also pretty much all VT has to fall back on, and they are still decent in that area. Suggs is gone, but that kid that replaced him was breaking records last year while sharing the duties with Suggs, so he will be improved for sure.
USC is also clouded in some controversies, and that definately has to factor in. VT had some controversey of their own with Marcus Vick, but if anything that probably helped them as Randall will now not have to look over his shoulder, and is firmly in place as the starting QB.
Lastly VT has only been a home dog twice in 7 years, and never this big. They were only +14 against Miami the year Miami was blowing people out 64-0, and that was the LAST game of the year, not the first. That might mean nothing, but it is a clear case over over hype for one team, and the infamous "rebuilding" tag put on another.