US Open @ Winged Foot - the key stat

[rolltide]

according to a discussion on Golf Channel EVERY winner at Winged Foot, including 4 US Opens, has played either #1 or #2 in scrambling for the tourney

Here are your 2020 scrambling rankings https://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/stats/stat.130.y2020.html

guys in top 20 favorites that are top 25 in scrambling:
1 = Berger
2 = Schauffele
11 = Rahm
12 = Simpson
17 = Bryson
19 = Matsuyama
21 = Reed
25 = Thomas

worst scramblers in the field:
189 = Walker
186 = Herman
177 = Willett
174 = Kang
172 = McDowell
169 = Leishman

 

[rolltide]

my favorite prop is Harman top lefty +350

- 4 left handed players are Mickelson, Watson, MacIntyre, and Brian Harman

T2G, driving accuracy, scrambling, and putting are your keys this week (IMO)
Harman = 50 - 53 - 9 - 43
Philly = 75 -174 - 60 - 130
Bubba = 32 - 135 - 111 - 91
MacIntyre is a Euro Tour guy so no PGA stats

Harman is 3rd favorite when i have him a very solid overall fav from this 4-player group and even snagged some 250/1 to win the event

 

[HarryCaray]

I took like 8 guys to win, including the top 4 on your list and then some long shots
i like Rahms chances a lot

 

[rolltide]

I took like 8 guys to win, including the top 4 on your list and then some long shots
i like Rahms chances a lot

yeah i round-robined Rahm, JT, and Xander to finish 1-2

rahm/JT pays 150, rahm/xander 190, and jt/xander 190 (and the inverse of each so 6 bets in all)

bryguy, deki, and reed are untouchables for me and i think the course is too long for webb

berger seems short at 30/1 but looking around at group betting for him as i really don't like any of the others similarly priced (deki, day, reed, finau, fleetwood, tiger) so might find one that i like

i haven't found any h2h involving jimmy walker but probably not a worse course fit than him as he is dead last in the field in both driving accuracy and scrambling.

 

[rolltide]

found Jaeger ML over Walker -110 at bovada

and Berger +450 in group betting with morikawa, cantlay, bryson, and webb

Jaeger is a Korn Ferry guy who has finished 3 of his last 4 tourneys there in the top 10. He is also behind only Harman, Day, English, and Palmer in SG:ARG in past 24 rounds and is a top 10 scrambler on the KFT. i would take any of the KFT guys over their PGA counterpart h2h as they are the guys in top 5 of KFT points. They are Zalatoris, Riley (RTR), Hodges (RTR), Sigg, and Jaeger. Zalatoris will be as strong next year as Im and Scheffler, Riley and Hodges are Bama guys that have played in national title matches, Sigg is a fairway machine, and Jaeger a great scrambler

a lot of love for Patrick Reed this week and while he's an absolutely elite scrambler his SG:OTT and SG:APP has been dismal for months.

 

[HarryCaray]

One could make the argument that IF you like Rahm at ~11/1, the better bet is Rahm top Euro at 3/1

Main Euro competition is Rory. Fleetwood, Hatton, Fitzpatrick feasible, after that it's kind of a stretch.
But you eliminate DJ, JT, Morikawa, Berger, Xander, Webb, Cantlay, Bryson, Finau.

Obviously has a MUCH higher chance to cash

 

[chrishansen]

I think the value may come after round 2.

scrambling and guys who keep it cool are biggest two things imo.

Behind the ropes info is fairways are narrow but they are getting crazy good run off the tee up to 40 yards. History will show that short accuracy guys do well at opens. The win equity isn’t there as much but Top 10 is. I was close to playing a fun bet on Stricker T20 but 8-1 was bit short for me.

Xander was the guy I liked but odds to short imo.

To win or T5 T10 guys I looked at
Xander
Casey
Reed
Fitzpatrick
Webb
Louie

I think value can be found after Day 2 much like Rahm a few weeks ago. Anybody 4-7 shots back can be in play. 7 shots back after 2 rounds can post an E or -1 day 3 and surge past a ton of golfers.

GL gentlemen

 

[rolltide]

I think value can be found after Day 2 much like Rahm a few weeks ago. Anybody 4-7 shots back can be in play. 7 shots back after 2 rounds can post an E or -1 day 3 and surge past a ton of golfers.

GL gentlemen

that was my plan with JT but he kinda screwed that one up for me

 

[rolltide]

if you have a Morikawa win ticket you can rip it up

he won't see more benign conditions all week and can't play the course. that's one dude i can scratch off against berger

 

[rolltide]

my fav R2 play is Bama's Michael Thompson ML over Chesson Hadley

Pure stats play at Thompson hit is great on Thursday but couldn't make a putt, and he's usually an excellent putter. He gained more than 5 strokes on the field T2G...

Also took Webb ML over Day

9/18/2020 Majors Golf 7305 Michael Thompson (2nd Rnd) -110* vs Chesson Hadley (2nd Rnd)

 

[rolltide]

my fav R2 play is Bama's Michael Thompson ML over Chesson Hadley

Pure stats play at Thompson hit is great on Thursday but couldn't make a putt, and he's usually an excellent putter. He gained more than 5 strokes on the field T2G...

Also took Webb ML over Day

didn't realize Thompson went off very early... he's +3 thru 4, ugh

Webb is -130 ML vs Day

Day was -3.35 SG:APP yesterday, Webb was +0.22 but Day's putter saved him. Tough to expect another +2.25 on the greens today where the pins should be in more difficult spots and the course windy and more dried out in the afternoon. Like Webb in this one

 

[rolltide]

took adam scott 100/1 live

was terrible around the green on Thu but gained strokes off tee, approach, and putting

he finished 2020 9th in SG:ARG and 2019 was 10th so he's an elite scrambler who had an off day. 6 strokes off the lead to start the day so he can make that up

also added Kaymer ML -160 over Walker ... wind expected to increase this afternoon and Kaymer a strong wind player like most Euros, Walker is not strong at anything. kaymer finished 2nd on euro event earlier this month

 

[rolltide]

3R Zalatoris ML over Zach J +120

- zalatoris is far and away the top player on KFT...always 10/1 or less for any tourney he enters. His numbers blow zach away T2G as johnson is only saved by the putter. +6.10 vs -1.53 T2G and Will gaining strokes off tee, approach, around the green but losing on putting. Zach losing strokes both off tee and approach is not good for the weekend

 

[rolltide]

DJ over Rory ML -125
- DJ played really well on Friday, Rory did not, and conditions today should be similar to yesterday. in R2 DJ was +1.68 APP (Rory -0.24), +0.99 ARG (Rory -2.52) and +3.04 T2G (Rory -0.95). DJ drove poorly both days, Rory drove great both days, so much higher ceiling on DJ as Rory is likely to come back to field off the tee (he's #2) while DJ should improve a lot. I'd be this down to -160


(note: Zalatoris overnight went from +120 to -120)

 

[rolltide]

rooting for Wolff, Hovland, or Xander today...

ML treble JT, Hovland, and Webb to win their matchups pays 3/1

single Thompson ML o Pendrith -120

need a big day from Harman coupled with a Bubba failure to hit the lefty bet. Pretty much down to those two guys

interesting stat....no player from final group has won a US Open at Winged Foot. 54 hole leader has averaged 77.5 on Sunday

this week R1 leader came out and shot 73, R2 leader went out and shot 70 (but +5 on back 9), so Wolf probably needs even par to assure the win perhaps even +1. Even worse for him is that this year, unlike any other year here, has a 65 or 66 out there for someone back in the field to make a charge.

even more than JT's horrible 3rd round the shocker for me was Rahm's 76...

 

[chrishansen]

0-6 To win picks
2-4 To T5 (Louie Xander)
3-4 To T10 (Webb Louie Xander)

Reed collapsed
Fitzpatrick MC
Casey tried to sneak in a T10

 

[rolltide]

went into sunday very optimistic with wolfie, x-man, and hovland but bryson just lapped the field. that nascar-winner speech he gave was disgusting