The US Open is no ordinary tournament and likely winners are few and far between, says Paul Krishnamurty, who recommends four wagers at Congressional
With Sunday's results fresh in mind, there is a temptation to conclude that backing the market leaders is a mug's game. In the States, Harrizon Frazar became the 15th triple-figure priced winner on this year's PGA Tour, ending a 354 tournament losing streak. Italian Open winner Robert Rock was a likelier pick at [70.0], but he too had never previously delivered in a decade of trying. Such results strengthen the new consensus that golf has never been more open, illustrated by the fact that there is nobody trading in single figures for the US Open.
That certainly doesn't mean, however, that the favourites are poor value. Far from it. Run of the mill tournaments are one thing, the US Open quite another. Whereas at least 50, perhaps 100, different players could plausibly have won the St Jude Classic, it is hard to fancy more than a couple of dozen contenders this week at Congressional. Along with the other majors, the US Open is usually one of the most predictable events of the year, because the demands of these tough set-ups are simply too penal for most. As explained in detail here, these courses strongly favour specific types of experienced, US Open specialists.
Plus, the formbook usually stands up at Congressional. The last US Open here was won by Ernie Els, with tournament specialists Colin Montgomerie, Tom Lehman and Jim Furyk close behind. The four PGA Tour events played there this century were all won by plausible candidates - Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, KJ Choi and Sergio Garcia. I'm expecting another leaderboard packed with obvious names, and recommend the following portfolio.
Outright Trading Plan Lee Westwood @ [14.0] Phil Mickelson @ [17.0] Place order to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]
So far as winning the tournament is concerned, it is hard to envisage either Lee Westwood or Phil Mickelson being far away. A trade on Westwood at [14.0] would have yielded dividends in recent majors. He's made the top-three on four of his last six, with nothing worse than 16th. His case is a classic example of how world-class players often enjoy a better record in majors than lesser, weaker events. Lee's ability to consistently drive the ball long and straight is ideal for these tough layouts, particularly in this major.
While that breakthrough major has remained painfully elusive, with his career at it's peak, Westwood will never get a better opportunity. He's really taken the eye on his last three starts, suggesting a perfectly timed preparation. First he was outstanding for two rounds at the World Matchplay, then he lost a play-off at Wentworth. Last week's respectable title defence at Southwind improved as the week progressed, closing with 66.
Continued: Golf Betting
With Sunday's results fresh in mind, there is a temptation to conclude that backing the market leaders is a mug's game. In the States, Harrizon Frazar became the 15th triple-figure priced winner on this year's PGA Tour, ending a 354 tournament losing streak. Italian Open winner Robert Rock was a likelier pick at [70.0], but he too had never previously delivered in a decade of trying. Such results strengthen the new consensus that golf has never been more open, illustrated by the fact that there is nobody trading in single figures for the US Open.
That certainly doesn't mean, however, that the favourites are poor value. Far from it. Run of the mill tournaments are one thing, the US Open quite another. Whereas at least 50, perhaps 100, different players could plausibly have won the St Jude Classic, it is hard to fancy more than a couple of dozen contenders this week at Congressional. Along with the other majors, the US Open is usually one of the most predictable events of the year, because the demands of these tough set-ups are simply too penal for most. As explained in detail here, these courses strongly favour specific types of experienced, US Open specialists.
Plus, the formbook usually stands up at Congressional. The last US Open here was won by Ernie Els, with tournament specialists Colin Montgomerie, Tom Lehman and Jim Furyk close behind. The four PGA Tour events played there this century were all won by plausible candidates - Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, KJ Choi and Sergio Garcia. I'm expecting another leaderboard packed with obvious names, and recommend the following portfolio.
Outright Trading Plan Lee Westwood @ [14.0] Phil Mickelson @ [17.0] Place order to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]
So far as winning the tournament is concerned, it is hard to envisage either Lee Westwood or Phil Mickelson being far away. A trade on Westwood at [14.0] would have yielded dividends in recent majors. He's made the top-three on four of his last six, with nothing worse than 16th. His case is a classic example of how world-class players often enjoy a better record in majors than lesser, weaker events. Lee's ability to consistently drive the ball long and straight is ideal for these tough layouts, particularly in this major.
While that breakthrough major has remained painfully elusive, with his career at it's peak, Westwood will never get a better opportunity. He's really taken the eye on his last three starts, suggesting a perfectly timed preparation. First he was outstanding for two rounds at the World Matchplay, then he lost a play-off at Wentworth. Last week's respectable title defence at Southwind improved as the week progressed, closing with 66.
Continued: Golf Betting
