It is impossible to escape the sense of deja vu. For the third time in the last four majors, Rory McIlroy holds a commanding lead after the opening day at Congressional. With his odds shortened to just [3.85], the big question this morning concerns whether history will continue to repeat itself. At St Andrews in last year's Open he followed an opening 63 with 80. At the Masters, he kept it going until Sunday before shooting another catastrophic 80. Will he fare better this time, or is McIlroy doomed to carry the 'bottler' tag forever?
To be clear, nothing should be taken away from yesterday's performance. Six under par in any round at the US Open is an outstanding achievement, and proves once again that McIlroy has the right game for these tough major tests. That round has significantly altered the shape of the leaderboard, leaving the likes of Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Phil Mickelson languishing nine or ten strokes back, with a mountain to climb. Were Rory to hit another 65 today, his lead would probably be unassailable. Moreover, I don't really buy into the 'bottler' theory, and expect an improved performance, with lessons learnt from those recent failures.
Nevertheless, you won't get rich backing players at such short odds after just one round in any tournament, let alone a US Open. This major nearly always sees dramatic change over the weekend, with only one of the last six final round leaders going on to win. Today's pin positions will be unforgiving, and even despite last night's rain, there is a chance the course will become significantly harder as the greens dry out over the weekend. Shots can and will be lost very quickly, and that applies as much to McIlroy as anyone else.
Indeed, the morning of the second day at a US Open is often the best time to open new trades, precisely because we can be pretty certain that scoring conditions will get tougher from here. By the time they begin their rounds this evening, the later starters will have advanced up the leaderboard as others fall away. It is quite possible, for instance, that early front-runner Y E Yang regains the lead without hitting a ball. Their odds will shorten unless McIlroy shoots another great round. There seems to be no particular advantage in relation to the wind speed, so my focus is on these later groups.
Continued: Golf Betting
To be clear, nothing should be taken away from yesterday's performance. Six under par in any round at the US Open is an outstanding achievement, and proves once again that McIlroy has the right game for these tough major tests. That round has significantly altered the shape of the leaderboard, leaving the likes of Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Phil Mickelson languishing nine or ten strokes back, with a mountain to climb. Were Rory to hit another 65 today, his lead would probably be unassailable. Moreover, I don't really buy into the 'bottler' theory, and expect an improved performance, with lessons learnt from those recent failures.
Nevertheless, you won't get rich backing players at such short odds after just one round in any tournament, let alone a US Open. This major nearly always sees dramatic change over the weekend, with only one of the last six final round leaders going on to win. Today's pin positions will be unforgiving, and even despite last night's rain, there is a chance the course will become significantly harder as the greens dry out over the weekend. Shots can and will be lost very quickly, and that applies as much to McIlroy as anyone else.
Indeed, the morning of the second day at a US Open is often the best time to open new trades, precisely because we can be pretty certain that scoring conditions will get tougher from here. By the time they begin their rounds this evening, the later starters will have advanced up the leaderboard as others fall away. It is quite possible, for instance, that early front-runner Y E Yang regains the lead without hitting a ball. Their odds will shorten unless McIlroy shoots another great round. There seems to be no particular advantage in relation to the wind speed, so my focus is on these later groups.
Continued: Golf Betting
