US General: Iraq Violence Likely to Increase

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Thursday May 20, 2004 12:31 AM


By ROBERT BURNS

AP Military Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East said Wednesday he may need more than the 135,000 troops already in Iraq once political control is handed back to the Iraqis on June 30 because the insurgency is likely to grow even more violent then.

Summoned to testify before Congress on prisoner abuse, Gen. John Abizaid also addressed broader issues, making clear that he believes time is running short to make a viable handover of sovereignty to the Iraqis on June 30.

President Bush warned that the Iraq could remain dangerous and unstable after the transfer of political power.

``It's tough work there now because killers want to stop progress,'' Bush said following an Oval Office meeting with Silvio Berlusconi, premier of Italy, a strong ally in the war. ``It will be tough work after sovereignty is transferred because there will still be people there trying to derail the election progress.''

A U.N. envoy, working with the Bush administration, is expected to name the interim government within two weeks, but political factions inside Iraq are jockeying over who should be on it. Bush said the full transfer of sovereignty would be accompanied by a U.N. Security Council resolution - a measure being designed to attract more international backing for coalition efforts in Iraq.

Berlusconi said he and Bush also discussed the possibility of convening a meeting in New York where the new president of Iraq could meet with members of the U.S. Security Council and other leaders.

``We fully share the strategy that needs to follow,'' Berlusconi said. ``Should we leave, abandon Iraq before a democracy takes hold, then we would leave this country to chaos.''

At the Capitol, Abizaid conceded in his testimony that he may have underestimated the strength of the Iraqi insurgency and said U.S. forces are hampered by shortages of military police and other support troops.

As chief of the Central Command running the war, Abizaid said he takes responsibility for the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. Overcrowding in the cells of that jail ``contributed to systemic failures,'' and may have created conditions for abuse to take place, he said.

Appearing with Abizaid, Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez told the Senate Armed Services Committee that military personnel who received reprimands or similar sanctions for their roles in the abuse may face criminal charges, too.

The troops who detained and interrogated prisoners at Abu Ghraib and their entire chain of command are being investigated, said Sanchez, the most senior U.S. commander based in Iraq. ``And that includes me,'' he said.

At the same hearing, Sen. John Warner, R-Va., committee chairman, disclosed that the Pentagon had found another disk containing photos of abuse at Abu Ghraib.

The Pentagon told Warner that its criminal investigators in Baghdad were given the new disk ``under circumstances that warranted investigation.'' Twenty-four photos that apparently show abusive acts by U.S. forces are on the diskette.

Assistant Defense Secretary Powell A. Moore, told Warner in a letter to Warner that 13 photos appear to have been already shown on international television. He cautioned that the other 11 ``may not be original or true photographs.''

A Senate GOP aide said senators would wait until investigators know the circumstances of the photos before they ask to see them.

At the hearing, Abizaid spoke in somber tones as he assessed the situation in Iraq, offering a sometimes grim view of the challenge in bringing stability to Iraq.

He predicted ``the situation will become more violent'' after the June 30 handover to an interim government ``because it will remain unclear what's going to happen'' between then and the end of the year, when elections are to be held to begin the process of writing an Iraqi constitution.

``It could very well be more violent than we are seeing today, so it's possible that we might need more forces,'' he said, adding that he hoped more countries would contribute troops.

Abizaid said it might take until April 2005 before U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces are fully functioning.

Now, 155,000 coalition troops are in Iraq, and 135,000 of them are American. The Bush administration has had little luck so far in persuading other countries to offer troops.

Wednesday's hearing took place several hours after Spc. Jeremy C. Sivits pleaded guilty in Iraq for his role in the prisoner abuse that was captured in shocking photos. Sivits was sentenced to a maximum penalty of one year in prison, a demotion in rank and a bad conduct discharge.

In their testimony, Abizaid and Maj. Gen. Geoffrey Miller said there had been limited prisoner abuse in Afghanistan, where Taliban fighters are detained, and at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, where the United States holds suspected al-Qaida terrorists. Miller, the former commander at Guantanamo, now is in charge of the military's prisons in Iraq.

In Afghanistan, the top U.S. commander, Lt. Gen. David Barno, announced a ``top to bottom'' review of all detention facilities in that country. He said it would be led by a general who would visit every facility to ``ensure internationally accepted standards of handling detainees are being met.'' He is to report to Barno by mid-June.

CIA officials also are under investigation for alleged mistreatment of detainees. A Justice Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Wednesday that the department is looking into three detainee deaths known to involve CIA personnel and contractors. They have been formally referred for possible criminal prosecution, the official said.
 

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Wolfowitz said yesterday that they anticipate troops being in Iraq for another 18 months. So conservatively you can double that.

We will be taking casualties in Iraq thru the year 2007.
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Unfortunately, the worst is in front of us.
 

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Mud,

Bobby W. is another neocon draft-dodging chickenhawk. He is a coward that has no business sending men off to war. He is one of these PNAC wackos that figures that soldiers are just chess pieces at their disposal to wage their global war to secure wealth for their cronies.

SEmper Fi,

Lt. Dan
 

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The local insurgents are going to become seriously capable veterans if you hang about too long.

At the end of the day, Iraq is going to implode anyway.

The main pain in the West is going to be economic, from the oil instability.

You don't have to be a strategic genius to see that, the developed/developing places are stockpiling in anticipation of a meltdown.

The 2nd hand value of SUVs is going to nosedive bigtime.
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Operation "EDURING" & Iraqi Freedom. W/ eduring being the key word.

Semper Fi,

Lt. Dan
 

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