UNLV vs San Diego State 10/27/2012

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San Diego State is a heavy favorite winning 98% of simulations over UNLV. Adam Dingwell is averaging 273 passing yards and 3.5 TDs per simulation and Adam Muema is projected for 87 rushing yards and a 81% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 2% of simulations where UNLV wins, Nick Sherry averages 1.63 TD passes vs 0.49 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.65 TDs to 0.94 interceptions. Tim Cornett averages 102 rushing yards and 0.73 rushing TDs when UNLV wins and 85 yards and 0.34 TDs in losses. San Diego State has a 38% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 99% of the time.
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