UNLV vs. Boise State:
For the biggest game in Mountain West Conference history, it seems only fitting that we get the matchup that we do. Nothing against Colorado State, who has had a great season, but UNLV is the team that everybody wanted to see against Boise State and that is precisely what we get with a trip to the College Football Playoff on the line.The Rebels got that chance when Fresno State knocked off Colorado State in Week 13 to set up a rematch of the best regular season game in the conference. Boise State went to Las Vegas and won and covered in a 29-24 win in the Friday night spotlight on October 25.
In a Friday night spotlight again, but this time on the blue turf of Albertsons Stadium, UNLV looks to return the favor against the Broncos.
For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 15 Hub.
UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos (-4, 58.5)
8 p.m. ETWe’ve already seen an adjustment to this spread based on the trendline for both teams. Boise State was -4 or -4.5 in Vegas for the first meeting. Now at home, Boise State is -4. The first game was very even. Boise State won on the scoreboard and in total yardage, but UNLV was better on a per-play basis. The Broncos were even 4-for-4 on fourth down, including what would prove to be the game-winning touchdown.
It is definitely the game that we deserve and the game that the conference deserves. It is also another chance for Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty to shine. He hasn’t been bottled up much, but UNLV succeeded, holding him to a season-low 3.9 yards per carry in a game where his longest rush was 16 yards. In the other 11 games, Jeanty’s longest rush bottomed out at 35 yards.
He was dinged up in that UNLV game, which didn’t help, but he’s had six games with at least 31 carries in the back portion of the season. He’s shown signs of wear and tear at times, but that’s where Maddux Madsen has picked up the slack, posting a 21/3 TD/INT ratio this season with over 2,500 yards through the air and 215 more on the ground.
UNLV has three running backs and a dual-threat QB averaging 5.3 yards per carry or more. Hajj-Malik Williams has a 17/4 TD/INT ratio and leads the team with nine rushing touchdowns, as he’s accounted for more than 2,500 yards of offense. He’s a huge part of the equation here for UNLV, not only if the Rebels need to keep pace with the Broncos, but also to keep Jeanty and the offense off the field.
The area where UNLV should have the advantage is on defense. As mentioned, they held Jeanty in check in the first game and rank more than 50 spots better in yards per play allowed. Even with Boise’s subpar opening to the season in non-conference action, they’ve allowed more yards per play in Mountain West action than they did against teams outside the MWC.
It is a tricky handicap. UNLV is playing at a very high level and the line adjustment is probably warranted. It’ll be cold for the desert dwellers, but not completely unbearable and there won’t be any wind or precipitation to worry about.
Because the Rebels did such a good job slowing Jeanty down, and Boise State doesn’t really generate a lot of explosive plays in the passing game (T-94th in plays of 20+ and T-121st in plays of 30+), I’d expect UNLV to keep this one close and have a real chance late.
Pick: UNLV +4
