UFL 2024

[truthstorm]

Yeah, UFL.
Why not?

From last year:
"It's difficult to beat a sport when you know the players and stats. It's even more difficult when you don't know much about the league, the players, and the stats, like me with the USFL. I think one way to win is to find anyone who BELIEVES they know how to win but really doesn't, and . . . fade them.

Small bets, just for some fun, action, and to test the theory. There will be ups and downs throughout the season, I just need a few more ups to gain a slight edge before it's over."


How did I do? 16-12, 57%.
Will it work again this year? Who the dafuk knows.

I have different goals than most bettors do.

Goal number one is - Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose. They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost everybody "wins") but it is a fact.

So, as the physicians' creed goes, "Primum non nocere" or ("First, do no harm" - in this case, to my bankroll.)

If I don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
Goal number two is to make a profit; any profit.
Goal number three is The Grail - 67%

And the main goal, like anything and everything else I do is to have fun and enjoy life.
And I do.

What I did last season was look for guys who acted like they knew what they were talking about when they were giving picks on the new league; website guys, YouTubers, and other sources.
I gathered a consensus of their picks and made my bets based on the old maximum that says "Books don't stay in business by paying everybody."
I faded them.

Picks/reasons:

Sides:
Saturday the Consensus of Geniuses shows about 90% on Birmingham, and a little higher on St Louis.
I don't mind taking the points and fading Birmingham, I think that game will be competitive, but I lean towards St Louis covering.
But screw my leans I'm going to stick with the fade.

Sunday's picks show a very slight edge to San Antonio and Memphis. No real edges to fade.

Totals?
Defenses are supposed to be head of offenses early in a season, and if I remember correctly new leagues usually start out with Unders with a slight edge. But the oddsmakers know that too, and it's factored into the lines, all of which are in the 40 to 43 range.
What the hell it's all a crap shoot anyway.

My plays for Saturday (I'll post Sunday's picks Sunday morning if I don't take too much of an ass whooping on Saturday):

Arlington + (common number is +3' now, wait to buy; line will go up because Joe Public loves to bet the favorite, and Birmingham won the USFL title last year, which seems to have more weight than Arlington winning the XFL title, so money will come on the Stallions.)

Birm/Arl Ov 41

Michigan + (+6' now; wait on this one, too. Everybody seems to love St Louis.)


Good luck to anyone else looking for a little fun and action on the new league. You crazy bastards...

 

[jamerx]

GL Tstorm

 

[damkay66]

I work part time at a local book and for some reason I’ve had a few pretty big bets on Stallions this week. Don’t know if they know anything but FYI

 

[truthstorm]

Thanks for stopping in Jamrx and Damjay.

Game one tied 11-11 at the half.
I see second half #'s Birm - 2' and -3,
and the total at 21and 21'.

I got the game at at +4 and over 41 so no second half adjustments for me, I like my position on both plays.

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-1-1
Record: 1-1

Missed with Arlington, mainly due to the QB - two interceptions including one in the red zone, and twice he couldn't connect with a wide receiver who got way beyond the defense, rag arm couldn't reach them either time.

Pushed with the total when a field goal attempt in the final minute hit the upright and didn't bounce my way, but a good job on line shopping and waiting to buy the under knowing it would get most of the action and the line would come down.

Hit with a dog as Michigan won SU.

Today, no real edge on either game when looking at consensus, l picks from writers and touts, 4-3 for SA, 4-3 for Memphis.

Real short on time today, have nothing on the morning game and don't have time to really look for something. Don't want to force a pick.
I have time to look at the later game, if I buy something on it I'll post, may just stand pat, get out of week one with no damage.
During the week when I have time I'll update league stats on favorites, dogs, Overs and Unders.
Good luck to anyone playing these games today.

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-1-1
Record: 1-1

Good move not forcing a play(s) on Sunday, would have split and lost juice with SA (W) and Hou (L).

Had a little fun, no damage done to my bankroll, and made some notes that will hopefully help 'cap plays this week.

Notes from scratch pad I update while watching:

Arlington's Perez under throws a wide open wide receiver, blew it on what was a sure TD.
Perez throws an INT.
Perez under throws a wide open wide receiver, missed a sure TD, AGAIN.
Perez throws an INT, AGAIN.
Perez sucks.

Final minute Birm FG attempt hits the upright, F'd on my Over, getting a Push.

SA looking like a complete team, quality play on O, D and special teams.

Mem easily handling Hou but NOT because they're any good, mostly because Hou is a total mess, O, D and coaching.
Mem QB Cookus looks lousy.

Regardless of what the consensus plays say, BUY SA as soon as the lines come out!!!
Should get a good line with Memphis at Hm off a Rd W.

Favs won with Birm, Dogs won with Mich and SA. Final game of the week went from Hou -1 to Mem -1' so it depends on what line you got.

All four games stayed Under (Birm pushed if you got 41 like me, but it was 42', 42, 41' most houses, most of the week.)


Yes, it was just one week of play, but based on what I saw I'm all over SA when lines come out later this week.
Hopefully the consensus play calls for Mem.

A few other things I noticed (going off memory here, if incorrect please post a reply.)

Neither Bmaker nor Heritage offered team totals.

BMaker lines came out first, Fri morn, Heritage came later in the day (?)

Bmaker let you buys pts if you're interested in such things,
Heritage offered either no buying pts or limited alt lines, choice of three I think it was?
REMINDER - if you're a "buy-the-hook-off" kind of bettor, this is not the NFL, 3 and 7 are NOT key numbers in this league. Save your money.

Heritage offered live betting, BMaker did not?

Back later this week with Fade the consensus plays and the # I get on SA.

 

[truthstorm]

From post above: "Back later this week with Fade the consensus plays and the # I get on SA."

Lines are out, Heritage has SA -2', BMaker has -2.
I made it Mem -1 to pk, but that # had a little wishful thinking added in.
Looks like the books saw the same thing I saw last week - Mem won not because they're any good but because Hou looks terrible, SA looks solid in all aspects.

Back with consensus fades and other info and plays after I do some digging.

Play(s):
SA -2

 

[truthstorm]

Well, there's trouble in "Fade the Consensus of Geniuses" land.

As noted in post number one, with no knowledge of these teams and no database of history and stats to use the handicap, I'm going to look to fade a consensus of touts, sportswriters, etc.

Based on what I saw last week, I took the Brahmas before the consensus of picks was out, and EVERYONE is on them!
Seven picks, seven guys taking SA.
I hate when an overwhelming majority leans one way, I prefer to be betting the opposite. But I'm locked in so...

Here's what I have for each game, picks from the Geniuses:
SA 7 Memphis 0; Over 0, Under 3
St L 5 Arl 2; Ov 3 Un 2
Birm 7 Mich 1; Ov 1, Un 3
DC 4 Hou 2, Ov 1, Un 4

The numbers don't match (examples seven picks on the side of the San Antonio/Memphis game but only six on DC/Houston because not all the guys pick a side or a total for every game.)

Fading the consensus would clearly call for Memphis at 7-0 for San Antonio, but even if I hadn't bought the Brahmas early in the week I'd still take them. The consensus is a guideline, something to look at, not written in stone. And other than looking lousy on third down (I think they were 1-7?) they looked really good overall, so I'll ride them this week.

Game two today, the edge goes to St Louis, 5-2, which would make Arlington the Fade the consensus play.

But Arlington screwed me last week, so the question is do I give them another chance or take St Louis who seemingly underperformed last week on the road (is Michigan's defense really that good?)

I'm not in the mood to let the Renegades do me dirty twice, I'm going to take a chance and hope the Battlehawks put in a better performance on offense in front of their home crowd.

SA -2
St L -5

Good luck today to anyone else playing chess against the bookies in this new league.

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-2
Record: 1-3

The strategy to Fade consensus plays was a good one, too bad I didn't follow it. Went against it in both games yesterday and got tagged with two losses.
Here are today's consensus numbers:
Birm 7 Mich 1; Ov 1, Un 3
DC 4 Hou 2, Ov 1, Un 4

Clear consensus play on Birmingham, slight edges on DC and the Under in both games.

Got screwed going against the consensus yesterday but have a feeling if I jump on it today I'll get screwed anyway, I'll get screwed as it evens out with a couple wins today after losing yesterday. But, I'm going to stick with the Fade in all four plays.

Mich +7 and Ov 41
Hou +5' and Ov 39

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 2-1-1
Record: 3-4

On Sunday, I got back one of the two units I dropped on Saturday, thanks to a W by a hook with Houston.

I usually watch football games with a pen and pad near by, to make notes to assist with making future bets.
At least 5-6 times last week I went to make notes but didn't have a pen, and rather than get up and get one I thought, "No problem, I'll just remember the notes when I 'cap and post next week."
Yeah, sure. Guess how THAT worked out.
So, no notes to help this week.

From above, post #1:
"It's difficult to beat a sport when you know the players and stats. It's even more difficult when you don't know much about the league, the players, and the stats, like me with the USFL. I think one way to win is to find anyone who BELIEVES they know how to win but really doesn't, and . . . fade them.

How's that working out so far?
Here are the records for the seven "writers/handicappers" I'm charting/tracking this week:
4-8, 1-6, 7-5 (sides 2-4, totals 7-1), 0-6, 6-8, 6-6 (sides 3-2, totals 3-4), 4-4 (sides 4-2 totals 1-1.)

The 0-6 comes from a place called OddsTrader.
Yeah, I never heard of it either until I began looking for UFL predictions, but at 0-6 he's the worst of the worst so I'll have my eye on him this week, as well as ATS-io, hot out of the gate at *1-6.

Still waiting for two of the seven geniuses to post their plays, back tomorrow with the consensus numbers and my plays,

* Despite being 1-6, ATS-io has a new, 1,000 word article on their site entitled, "How to Win Betting the UFL."
Really only needs two words, "Fade us."

 

[truthstorm]

Two Geniuses seem to have dropped out of the running, no picks from them this week. I added picks from a couple others though to add to the volume.

Here's the consensus, team followed by how many picks for them.

Arl 6, DC 1
Ov 2, Un 0

Mem 4, Birm 3
Ov 0, Un 2

Mich 5, Hou 0
Ov 0, Un 3

St L 3, SA 3
Ov 4, Un 0

Oddstrader (0-6) has DC Ov, Birm Un, St L Ov

ATSio (1-6) has Arl, Birm, Mich, San Antonio

I was hoping I'd get a game where I had a match with both Oddstrader and ATSio picking the same team so I could Fade it, but no luck there.

Got a clear consensus on Arlington and Michigan and the over in the Michigan game and St Louis game. Everything else slim to no edge.

Got got tagged with losses last week from ignoring the Fade of the consensus plays so I'm riding it today.
Just one pic for now, may add something later.

DC +2'

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-4

Got a W with DC yesterday by sticking with the Fade, back to even on the record.

Got a clear consensus today with *Mich 6 Hou 0.
Not buying Hou yesterday was a good move, anticipating the line going higher, picked up a full point as it's at +3 today.

The total shows *4 Un, 0 Ov, on Hou/Mich.

* Michigan number was 5 yesterday because two of the cappers I'm tracking had not yet posted their picks before I posted.
One of them, a guy who writes for Rotoballer who calls himself RotoBrady, has now posted his picks so I've added them to the numbers, and he's on Michigan too, as well as the Un.
I'm going to keep a close eye on this guy because he claims he went 4-3-1 last week, but he really went 3-3-2.
Cheating on your record is a dick move.

Hou +3
Hou/Mich Ov 37'

 

[sharky99]

Nice to see you betting the smaller leagues, GL on your plays Truth

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 5-5

Got a split on Sunday to give me a 2-1 weekend to pull me back to even at 5-5.

I have quite a few notes from watching the games last week and just about all of them are about how bad Houston is, not just on the field but their coaching staff as well. As a matter of fact, specifically the coaching staff.

They were in chip shot field goal range when they had an interception on third down. Replay shows a clear pass interference but Houston HC CJ Johnson doesn't throw the flag. Ref official Dean Blandino said his team was ready to overrule the interception and is surprised that Houston's coach didn't throw his flag.
I wasn't surprised.
Nice work by the coach and his assistant coaching staff.

The coach also showed an appalling lack of game awareness when towards the end of the half he let almost 10 seconds run off the clock before he called time out after realizing his team was about to get the ball back. And sure enough his team runs out of time on the 37-yard line. Fortunately the Roughnecks have kicker Jake Bates who's already hit 2 FG's from 60 plus yards this season, and he nailed the short one here to get them 3 points.

It's almost shocking to watch how they're consistently in third and long yet throw passes that are three or four yards short of the marker, putting them in punting situations.

Either Johnson will be the first UFL coach fired or he's related to the team's owner.

Here are this week's consensus numbers:

St L 6, Mem 1
Ov 4, Un 1

DC 1, Birm 6
Ov 2, Un 1

Mich 2, SA 3
Ov 1, Un 4

Arl 9, Hou 0
Ov 2, Un 1

The disparity on the Arlington/Houston game reflects my comments on the Roughnecks.
Not every handicapper I looked at took a side in every game except for Arlington/Houston. Everyone took a side on that and they ALL took Arlington.
Also have clear consensus picks on St Louis and Birmingham.
Slight edges for the Ov in St Louis game and Un in Michigan game.

I'm starting the weekend with the Showboats.
In the later games I'm likely Fading the Consensus Favs so might as well wait to see if the line moves in my favor before I decide to buy and post or not.

Mem +7

Good luck with your play today.

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 5-6

Missed with Mem +7.
Was within three pts at the half, playing well in what looked like what was going to be a tight game. But then the Showboats lost quarterback Cookus. I was okay with this (because Cookus sucks) until I saw who was coming into the game - Johnson from the Pittsburgh Maulers of last year.

And as expected Johnson was totally ineffective, leading the 'Boats to 0 points.

So the first game gets a win for the Consensus of Geniuses.
Next edge goes to Birmingham 6-1.
This is the third time in the first four weeks that Birmingham has had a consensus of at least four games over their opponent. They won two of the three, so I'm not loving today's final play, but I'm sticking with the consensus Fade.

DC +9

 

[truthstorm]

Mistake above, I can't even read my own handwriting.
Bates is on Michigan not Houston.

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-6

Split two games last weekend, 1-1.
I stayed off the biggest consensus play of the week, Hou, who were also the biggest consensus play of the season so far with picks going 9-0 against them. I watched their week 3 game and they were just so bad I couldn't bring myself to play them. And they won SU. It wasn't even difficult for them, Arlington was just terrible in every facet of the game. This puts me in a difficult spot because Arlington is the biggest consensus player this week, a week in which I'd like to just play all the consensus play losers.

Here's what I have for Saturday's games:
SA 7, Arl 2
Ov 5, Un 2
Birm 7, Hou 2
Ov 1, Un 4

If I follow my plan and play all the consensus losers I have to play ON winless Arlington who is clearly the worst team in the league. And I have to play ON Houston which puts me in one of the sports betting spots that I hate - playing ON a team I laid off of last week who won, and now hoping they'll do it again.

Week 5 now, I'm okay at 6-6 but it's time to open things up a bit and start picking up some units or digging a hole.

Both games are played at the same time today so I don't get to try and pick up some cash on the early game and then make a decision whether or not to play the late game.

I'm playing Fade the Consensus Geniuses, all four spots.

It helps having a couple outs, (Captain Obvious), I'm seeing differentials of 1' to 2 pts.
BMaker has Birm at -9', up from the opening -7', Heritage at -8'. Since the game doesn't start for another 8 hours I was thinking of waiting to see if I can get + double digits, but I'm going to grab the +9' now in case there's a buyback.

Arl +3
SA/Ar Un 42'
Hou +9'
Birm/Hou Ov 40'

 

[mdog45]

GL Truth, on the over with you!

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 7-7

Got another split yesterday. Stuck with the "Fade the Consensus" strategy and got stuck playing the worst team in the league and the second worst team in the league - and, deservedly, got tagged with two losses. Fortunately, hit both totals, barely sliding by with the Over in Birmingham thanks to Bbookmakers 40'.

Slight line differentials with this morning's numbers,
BM has St Louis -4, 47', and Mich -1', 38'
Heritage at St Louis -4, 47, and Mich -1, 39.

The Michigan line has flip-flopped, Memphis was a -1' Fav, now they're the Dog.
Looking back at my weekly charts I see two other times where the Fav flipped, depending on when you got your line and where you got your line.
In week 3 Arlington opened as small Fav -1', but closed as a Dog against DC at some houses.
In week 4 I see Michigan opened -1, and I see picks for SA -1.
In both games the opening line Fav lost SU.
DC won by one point, so probably a push there, SA won the game by 10 points so an ATS win there.
Small data sample but it appears that betting on the original Fav is not the way to go.

Consensus numbers for today:
St L 7, DC 4
Ov 7 Un 1
Mich 3, Mem 3
Ov 1, Un 8

No edge in the Michigan/Memphis game but I'm going to go with Memphis based on the Flip-Flop Fav outcomes noted above.

My plays:
DC +4
StL/DC Un 47'
Mem +1'
Mich/Mem Ov 38'

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-3
Record: 8-10

After a 1-3 Sunday I'm in a two game hole for the second time this season. Got some work to do.

Saturday game consensus numbers:
Birm 10, Mem 1; Ov 6, Un 0
St L 10, Mem 1; Ov 3, Un 3

Huge edges for the consensus picks.
The theory going in was to Fade the consensus plays, but going into week 6 my charts show that any game where the consensus has a two to one or more advantage on a side they're hitting at 67%.
That's a play ON number not AGAINST.
The totals numbers show any game consensus with a differential of three or more as a record of 3-2.

Hope that switching strategies doesn't come back to bite me on the ass but I'm playing ON the 67% edge.
Birmingham and Memphis met already once this year and Birmingham won by 33-14 so a win by > 10' pts doesn't seem to be too much to ask for today.

BookM and Heritage numbers pretty similar today but a decent edge on the over in the first game, Heritage at 42', Bmaker at 44.

Plays:
Birm -13
Birm Ov 42'