UFC on Fox Prelim Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive
Correia vs Pennington
Former Women’s Bantamweight title challenger Bethe ‘Pitbull’ Correia returns to action against the underrated Raquel ‘Rocky’ Pennington. After a 3-0 start to her UFC career, Correia came up extremely short in her opportunity to fight for UFC gold. Pennington is coming off a big win over Jessica Andrade that avenged an earlier loss against the Brazilian- she dropped a split decision to former champion Holly Holm 1 fight prior.
‘Rocky’ is 2 inches taller and will have a moderate 3″ reach advantage. She is also the younger fighter by 5 years.
At first glance, Pennington’s record doesn’t appear to be that strong considering she sits dangerously close to a to an even split of wins and losses. Conversely, she has fought some of the top fighters in the division and Correia will be her third opponent that has fought for the UFC title. Pennington is developing a dangerous submission game. In addition to submitting current Invicta 135 pound Champ Tonya Evinger on the Ultimate Fighter, her last 2 wins have both come by tap out over capable ground fighters. Her wrestling is still developing, but she isn’t afraid to go to the mat. On the feet, ‘Rocky’ relies on her boxing. She can do damage both at close range and at distance. She landed a combined 162 strikes in her first 2 UFC fights and held her own on the feet against Holm over the full 15-minutes.
Pennington advanced to the TUF 18 semi-finals which included a victory over Jessamyn Duke who Correia also defeated at UFC 172.
Correia sought out a fight with Ronda Rousey and her efforts were rewarded with the first loss of her career- lasting only 34 seconds with the former champ. ‘Pitbull’ has never lost a decision, holding a 7-0 record on the scorecards. She has averaged an impressive 6.2 SLpM, landing 91 strikes in a one-sided drubbing of Duke. Against Duke, the Brazilian was forced to overcome a significant length disadvantage and did so by backing her foe up against cage before attacking. She has a pair of knockouts, including a stoppage of long-time vet Shayna Baszler. Correia does her best work in close, landing strikes in flurries. On the mat, she is a BJJ purple belt, but takedowns have played a minimal role in her UFC game and she has zero submission wins.
Correia’s trio of UFC wins have come against opponents no longer in the UFC.
Bethe is coming off of a humbling first loss of her career. Losing that first fight can result in a fighter working to improve and returning stronger. In this scenario, she lost in a title fight which can have a detrimental effect as a fighter struggles to find motivation after coming so close to the title. Pennington has shown marked improvements in both her striking and grappling while facing top level competition. She should have the advantage in striking based on her technique and her size, but her grappling will be equally as important. Correia struggled during an early grappling exchange with Baszler and Raquel will be able to replicate those issues without wearing down. ‘Rocky’ will land the more impactful strikes and find success taking Correia to the mat
PREDICTION - Pennington by Submission
McGee vs Ponzinibbio
In the Welterweight division, TUF 11 winner Court ‘The Crusher’ McGee takes on Argentina’s Santiago Ponzinibbio. McGee is coming off a win over Marcio Alexandre Jr. to improve his UFC record to 6-3. Ponzinibbio is also coming off a win, stopping Andreas Stahl for his third Octagon victory in 5 tries.
The Argentinian is an inch taller and 2 years younger, but Court will have a 3″ reach advantage.
Ponzinibbio is an action fighter. Aggressive on the feet, he pushes the pace and has significant power capable of rendering his foe unconscious. He averages 3.78 SLpM, including a UFC career high 50 in his upset of Sean Strickland. He has recorded 12 wins by knockout, stopping 2 in the UFC and finishing 13 inside the opening round. He is a BJJ Black belt and has 6 submission wins, but has completed just a single takedown in the UFC. Santiago does his best work when pressuring his opponent, backing them up towards the cage, and unloading with heavy-handed barrages. His two key areas of vulnerability are his takedown and striking defense. Ponzinibbio has been taken down 9-times in 5 fights, defending just 43% of his opponents’ attempts. He has also averages a lofty 4.67 SApM.
Santiago did land the higher total in 3 of his 5 fights, but in his 2 defeats he lost the striking battle by a combined total of 139-58.
McGee is the definition of a high output low power striker. He averages 5.41 strikes per minute, holds a +1.94 striking exchange rate, and has surpassed the 100 significant strikes mark on 2 occasions. Court has just 3 knockouts, with his last coming back in 2009 before entering the TUF house. Working hand in hand with his striking, ‘The Crusher’ uses his superior cardio to exhaust and pull away from his adversary in the second half of a fight. He supports his striking with a serviceable wrestling game. His numbers aren’t overwhelming at 2.16 takedowns at a 29% completion rate, but he is 6-1 in fights where he lands at least 1 takedown and 0-2 when he does not.
Despite his high output striking and impressive cardio, McGee is 7-4 when he goes the distance.
Court was coming off a sizeable layoff prior to his last fight where he put up the lowest striking total in any of his UFC wins. McGee’s is tough and can carry a hefty pace, but he lacks the type of power to gain the respect of Ponzinibbio. While other opponents have struggled to keep up with him, the Argentinian will stay in the pocket and trade. Santiago is durable and will be the far more impactful striker, making Court’s willingness to take a shot to land one a detrimental scenario. Additionally, Santiago’s unwillingness to accept takedowns and ability to get back up quickly will severely inhibit Court’s capacity to score crucial points on the mat. Court thrives when he can use his volume to create inactivity in his opponent, that won’t be the case here
PREDICTION - Ponzinibbio by Decision
Swanson vs Diaz
Opening the televised portion of the under, Cub Swanson meets Nova Uniao product Hacran ‘Barnabé’ Dias in a battle of top 10 Featherweights. Swanson has lost back to back fights to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway after tearing through a 6-fight winning streak. Dias is 3-2 in the UFC with wins over Darren Elkins and Levan Makashvili in his 2 most recent affairs.
Both men stand 5’8″, but Cub will have a minute 1″ reach advantage. Dias is the younger man by a year, while Swanson has been out of action for almost exactly 12-months.
Swanson has been submitted in back to back fights and 5-times in his career, accounting for all but 2 of his defeats. He holds Black belts in both Judo and BJJ. An aggressive and at times unorthodox striker, Swanson has decent power. He has knocked out 8 opponents, including 4 during his 6-fight winning streak. His last TKO victory came over Dennis Siver at UFC 162. Cub will incorporate some Capoeira style kicks into his offense along with other higher risk maneuvers. Swanson’s willingness to attempt such techniques can result in a detrimental exchange, as was the case against Siver who took him down after a missed high-risk strike. Cub is at his best when he is moving forward, landing strikes, and forcing his opponent to fight off of their back foot.
Cub was taken down 7-times by Edgar and was put on his back on 9 occasions in the 5 fights prior to the loss to Frankie.
Dias is also a BJJ Black belt, earning 9 wins by some form of tap out- his last came in 2011 in his final pre-UFC bout. The Brazilian has gone the distance 14-times, winning 11. Getting the better of the takedown battle has played a big role in his success. He has completed 13 takedowns in his 3 UFC wins compared to just 3 given up. Elkins and Makashvili attempted a combined 14 tries. Conversely, in his 2 defeats he was on the wrong end of a 6-3 total. ‘Barnabé’ has a strong top game, focusing on position over potential position costing submission attempts. Hacran’s striking is set up to help him close the distance and create takedown opportunities.
Dias averages just 1.83 strikes per minute compared to 2.24 SApM. His opponent has landed more significant strikes in each of his fights with the exception of his debut where Dias finished even with his adversary.
Swanson is a multi-faceted fighter capable of both knocking out and submitting his opponent. But, his grappling defense has become a glaring point of vulnerability. Dias’s best strength has been his grinding wrestling attack, at the same time the fighters that have defeated him has have used a similar gameplan against him. Swanson lacks a strong offensive takedown game, which is going to force him to rely solely on his ability to remain vertical and use his striking. Hacran is capable of holding his own on the feet and then either dragging Cub to the mat or taking advantage of a mistake to grab top position. Dias has a capable submission game, but he will be more concerned with maintaining position over submission
PREDICTION - Dias by Decision
Dodson vs Gamburyan
In the UFC Fight Pass prelim headliner, TUF winner and former 2-time Flyweight title challenger John ‘The Magician’ Dodson returns to the Bantamweight division to square off with Manny ‘The Anvil’ Gamburyan. Dodson is coming off of a second loss to Demetrious Johnson, the only man to defeat him over his last 10 fights. Since moving down to Bantamweight, Gamburyan is 2-0 with wins over Cody Gibson and Scott Jorgensen- he has 4 victories over his last 6 fights.
Manny is 2 inches taller than Dodson and will have a slight 1″ reach advantage. Dodson is the younger man by 3 years.
Gamburyan is a 3rd Dan Black belt in Judo and BJJ Purple belt. He has a 7-1 record in fights ending by submission, including a trio of wins by his signature guillotine choke. ‘The Anvil’ lands 3.38 takedowns per fight at a 35% completion rate. Since cutting to 135 pounds, he has completed a combined 7 TDs on 19 attempts. Manvel has some power, but just 2 career knockout victories- knocking out Mike Brown at WEC 48. His striking is pretty simplistic winging big overhand punches. His inability to keep up with his opponent’s vertical output has made his takedown game a crucial aspect of his offense.
On average, Gamburyan gets out-struck by .57 strikes per minute. Dating back to the Cole Miller fight, he has been out landed in 4 of his 5 fights including a 49 to 11 total in his comeback submission win over Gibson.
Dodson returns to the weight where he defeated former divisional champion TJ Dillashaw to win the TUF title. The Jackson-Winkeljohn product is known for 2 specific traits. He is exceptionally quick and he packs significant power. ‘The Magician’ has knocked out 8 opponents, 4 in the UFC, including the aforementioned Dillashaw, Jussier Formiga, and former Flyweight title challenger John Moraga. His speed makes him both difficult to defend against and equally as challenging to attack. Look for him to dart in and out while engaging, with his speed playing an even bigger role against larger opponents. Dodson’s striking stats suggests a similar pattern to Gamburyan’s, but the numbers are severely skewed by his two meetings with DJ.
More importantly to this fight, John has defended 84% of his opponents’ TDAs.
Gamuryan’s success hinges heavily on his ability to implement a grappling-heavy attack. Considering his Judo background a lot of his TDAs come from close range positions. Closing the gap and then taking Dodson down with consistency will not be easy. This will force the Armenian to rely on his striking, where Dodson should have a sizeable advantage. Manny isn’t the fastest fighter and when paired with an opponent who has the speed of a former Flyweight and Heavyweight power that isn’t a good recipe. Gamburyan has been knocked out twice and if he becomes desperate to close that distance look for Dodson to capitalize on a mistake and catch him with something big
PREDICTION - Dodson by TKO
Brown vs Graves
At 170 pounds, Dana White’s “Looking For A Fight” product Randy ‘Rude Boy’ Brown takes on TUF 21 competitor Michael Graves. Brown debuted with a victory over fellow TUF castmate Vicente Luque last July. Brown also made a successful UFC debut with a decision win over Matt Dwyer.
At 6’3″, Brown is 4 inches taller than his foe and will have a noteworthy 7″ reach advantage. Graves is the younger man by a year and while both have similar pro experience, Graves also fought twice on the reality show finishing with a 1-1 record.
Brown has finished 6 of his 7 victories, requiring the judges for the first time in his UFC debut. He has 4 wins by knockout and 2 submissions- ending 4 of those 6 wins in the middle frame. He has a decent striking game and backs it up with good power. On the regional circuit, he has used a variety of different ways to obtain knockouts- ranging from top position GNP to knees in the clinch. He got off to a bit of a slow start against Dwyer, but upped his striking tempo in rounds 2 and 3 while finding moderate success with his wrestling. His ground game looked a little better than expected against Dwyer, but considering the Canadian’s lack of a strong ground game- that doesn’t say much. ‘Rude Boy’ is a BJJ Purple belt.
Brown won the Ring of Combat Welterweight title in just his third pro bout and defended his title on 2 subsequent occasions.
Graves started his pro run with a trio of opening-round stoppages- all by knockout. His only submission win came by second round RNC. During his time on the show, he dropped a majority decision to Kamaru Usman and then rallied to submit Jason Jackson in his next fight. Against Jackson, Graves got caught with an undetected low blow and was then pummeled on the mat with knees and punches. The American Top Team product endured the prolonged beating and then worked his way to a superior position on the mat before locking in the RNC. In his debut victory, Michael completed 7 of 10 takedown attempts. He took his opponent off his feet using a variety of techniques ranging from single leg shot, clinch-based takedowns, and the always entertaining lateral drop.
As an amateur, Graves finished 3 of his 4 fights including 2 by submission.
Both fighters are still young in their MMA careers, so a significant leap in abilities since their last appearance is a possibility. Brown’s power and length gives him the edge on the feet, but he will need to remain vertical to exploit that advantage. Graves possesses a pretty slick takedown game. His ability to use multiple techniques will make it difficult for Brown to defend against and allow Michael to make adjustments if he can’t score on his initial attempt. Once on the mat, Graves has the ability to both grind out the position or start working for a submission. Brown held up well over his first 3 round fight, but if he is forced to defend on mat that could take away his effectiveness on the feet. Graves comes from a better camp and should be prepared to exploit his opponent’s weakness
PREDICTION - Graves by Submission
Dober vs Makhachev
Lightweights battle when Drew Dober fights Dagestan’s Islam Makhachev. Makhachev is coming off the first loss of his career after getting knocked out by the unheralded Adriano Martins in his second UFC appearance. Dober upset Scott Holtzman at UFC 195 to improve to 2-3 with one No Contest inside the Octagon.
Islam is 2″ taller and 3 years younger, but they have an identical reach.
Makhachev is an International Master of Sport in Sambo, earning 6 wins by submission, including his second victory by RNC in his UFC debut. He owns a masterful takedown game, utilizing throws, trips, and both single and double leg techniques. He went 3 for 5 on TDAs against Leo Kuntz, but was unable to attempt anything in his brief bout with Martins. Islam utilizes top position strikes with an aggressive transition game and sound submission skills. Holding top control has been a point of concern; Kuntz was able to get up from an early takedown despite Islam’s technical advantages. Makhachew trains alongside Khabib Nurmagomedov and utilizes similar grappling techniques and tendencies.
Islam does have power in his hands, but he tends to be a little wide with his strikes. His aggression got the better of him against Martins, who was able to catch him coming forward with a well-timed left hook.
An incredibly durable fighter, Dober is no easy out- he has been finished just twice in his 24-fight career. Despite coming from a Muay Thai background, Drew is a Purple belt in BJJ and has 9 submission wins on his record. He tapped Jamie Varner in late 2014. Dober made a considerable alteration to his traditional game plan versus Holtzman by landing 5 takedowns- he completed zero through his previous 5 UFC bouts. On the feet, he has averaged 3.12 SLpM, compared to 4.02 SApM. He will willingly stand in the pocket and trade, but he lacks legit knockout power. He is an even 5-5 on the scorecards which indicates that he struggles to separate himself from his adversary when he can’t get the finish.
While Dober has won 4-times by Rear-naked choke, he also has 3 submission wins due to strikes.
The new wrinkle that the American displayed against Holtzman was probably the product of his inability to win close fights with just his striking. Taking Islam down will be far more difficult. While Dober lacks the power to stop Makhachev, he will need to turn this fight into a gritty brawl and try to consistently beat him to the punch. Makhachev will most likely come out looking for the takedown to negate the striking skills of Dober. Drew has been taken down in multiple fights and has struggled to mount much offense off of his back. The takedowns of Makhachev will both score points and serve as a deterrent for Dober to get too aggressive when striking. Dober won’t spend enough time om his feet to put his punches together and eventually he will give up position attempting to get off his back
PREDICTION - Makhachev by Submission
Ferreira vs Bamgbose
In the Middleweight division, Cezar ‘Mutante’ Ferreira battles ‘The Holy War Angel’ Oluwale Bamgbose. Ferreira has lost 3 of his last 4, most recently getting knocked out by Jorge Masvidal. Bamgbose picked up the first UFC win of his career, stopping Daniel Sarafian in the opening round- the win came on the heels of his first career loss.
Ferreira is returning after a 1-fight stint at Welterweight. He is 2 inches taller than his opponent, but they share the same 78″ reach. Bamgbose is stepping up on just 1 week’s notice to replace the injured Caio Magalhaes.
‘Mutante’ tore through the inaugural season of the Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, stopping all 3 opponents inside the distance before winning a decision over Sergio Moraes in the tournament finals. Both of his TUF submission wins came via guillotine as did his UFC 163 triumph over Thiago Santos. Ferreira is a BJJ Black belt and Master of Capoeira. Statistically, he is far from an offensive juggernaut. The Brazilian averages just 1.89 strikes per minute with a UFC-high of 42 significant connections coming in his debut. Since the Moraes fight, he has failed to land more than 20 strikes in a fight. In his other UFC wins over Daniel Sarafian and Andrew Craig, he managed to score a combined 5 takedowns helping him to edge out the fight on the scorecards.
Cezar’s striking defense is notoriously poor, but of even greater concern is his glass chin. Knockouts have accounted for 4 of his 5 career losses, including brutal KOs against Sam Alvey and CB Dollaway.
Oluwale needed just 60 seconds to finish Sarafian, landing a brutal head kick before finishing him on the mat. Both against Sarafian and in one of his final pre-UFC fights, his opponent appeared to block a head kick but they were still stunned and finished shortly after. Bamgbose has massive power, scoring all 6 of his wins by knockout. His longest fight lasted just 3:18. An unorthodox striker; he is light on his feet, he will switch stances, and moves pretty well. Against Sarafian, he used a number of odd hand fakes to set up his the finishing blow. He will throw hard hooks and leaps into his strikes to further increase their impact.
Against Uriah Hall, he slipped on a leg kick attempt and was stopped with top position strikes. His short fight time has resulted in minimal footage of ‘The Holy War Angel’ working on the mat.
This bout will be decided under 1 of 2 circumstances. Ferreira is a decent wrestler and capable submission grappler. If he is able to take his foe down he should have a sizeable advantage that leads to either a submission win or dominant decision. Oluwale’s history of brief fights and the short notice suggests that if Cezar can get on top he could wear him down and make him far less effective in the second half of the fight. Conversely, Bamgbose has shown that he only needs 1 opportunity to knock out his opponent out. He should have a slight speed advantage and his unorthodox style will make it difficult for Ferreira to settle in. The Brazilian is simply too reckless, charging forward to attack and his chin will not be able to withstand Bamgbose’s type of power
PREDICTION - Bamgbose by Knockout
Dos Santos vs Akhmedov
Opening the card, Welterweights Elizeu Zaleski ‘Capoeira’ dos Santos and Omari Akhmedov meet with their UFC roster spot on the line. Akhmedov is coming off a disappointing loss to Sergio Moraes, getting stopped in the final round to fall to 3-2 in the Octagon. dos Santos dropped his promotional debut, losing a split decision to Nicolas Dalby and ending his 4-fight winning streak.
The Russian is 1″ taller and a year younger than his foe. dos Santos has been out of action for the better part of 11-months.
A physical bruiser, Akhmedov has won 7-times by knockout along with a 5-2 record in fights ending by submission. He averages roughly 1 more strike per minute than his opponents land against him. He put up a personal best 64 significant strikes against Mats Nilsson, but arguably did his best work against Brian Ebersole. Omari utilized thudding leg kicks to damage the legs of Ebersole, earn the TKO victory and sending the American into retirement. His hands are primarily deployed in the form of powerful hooks that can be equally as damaging. His cardio and chin are a bit of a question mark for the big Russian. He has a tendency to fade in fights, which cost him against Moraes. In addition to the TKO loss to Sergio, he was rocked in his debut and dropped before getting submitted by Gunnar Nelson.
Akhmedov showed decent wrestling, landing 5 takedowns against Nilsson. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found a way to weave his ground game more cohesively into his offense with a total of just 2 completions over his other 4 fights.
The former Jungle Fight Welterweight champion, dos Santos has stopped 11 men via knockout compared to just 2 submission wins, and 1 victory on the scorecards. As the number suggest, he has significant power and he is capable of evenly distributing it over the full duration of a fight. Against Dalby, he landed 57 significant strikes and held the Dane to just 41. After a bit of a slow start, he found his stride in rounds 2 and 3 and got the better of the exchanges. While he will periodically forgo technique for power and wing his punches- he can also put together some pretty decent combinations. Look for him to throw hard leg kicks and draw on his Capoeira background for some of his flashier techniques. Elizeu has stopped 5 opponents after the opening round and is 6-5 in fights that last longer than 5 minutes.
The Brazilian was taken down 6-times in his debut which was the reason his superior striking numbers were the not enough to earn the decision.
Akhmedov is powerful, but he is a little stiff and tends to muscle his punches which results in his inability to maintain his pace for a full 15-minutes. Against Moraes, he was commanding the action and fighting his style of fight, yet he still slowed and got knocked out by a man known for his grappling skills. ‘Capoeira’ is a more fluid striker and should have the speed advantage. Look for him to unload with powerful combinations against a fighter willing to stand in directly in fron of him. Omari should rely on his takedowns to ground his foe, but that might also prove too taxing his cardio. The Russian has only been out of the opening round twice in his last 13 fights, while dos Santos has never been finished in the opening frame. ‘Capoeira’ endures the early onslaught and finds increasing success with his strikes as the fight progresses before landing something big
PREDICTION - Dos Santos by TKO
