UFC Fight Night: Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez
Mookie Alexander: Here's the thing that's sort of been overlooked - RDA hasn't fought anyone with very good takedowns since he fought Khabib and then Jason High in back-to-back fights. RDA lost to Khabib, and the High fight was more competitive than I remember it being upon rewatch. Truth be told, Ben Henderson's wrestling isn't that consistent and RDA KO'd him in 2.5 minutes anyway, Nate Diaz isn't a serious takedown threat, neither is Anthony Pettis, and Cerrone hasn't recorded more than 2 takedowns in a fight in over 3 years. Alvarez is a better wrestler than all of RDA's opponents during his winning streak. It's not far-fetched to think that Eddie can both outstrike Rafael at range, close the distance and go for takedowns, or at least force some ugly clinch-fighting. The problem I have with picking Eddie is RDA's heavy leg kicks, pressure fighting, and excellent cardio, and dogged determination combined with his more refined skill set is just going to be too much for Alvarez in the later rounds. I think Eddie has a real chance at victory, but RDA is going to pull away late.
Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision.
Anton Tabuena: This could very well end up in a firefight that makes it a much closer bout, but picking this is pretty much straightforward to me. I believe Dos Anjos should be faster, less shopworn, and more technical both standing and on the ground.
Rafael Dos Anjos by Decision.
Eddie Mercado: In Alvarez's UFC debut, we saw him get controlled on the ground a bit by the likes of Donald Cerrone. RDA can potentially present an even greater threat on the ground than Cowboy did. On the flip side, Dos Anjos hasn't faced an opponent with a heavy handed kickboxing game since, well, Jeremy Stephens back at UFC 91 in 2008. Yes Anthony Pettis can kickbox. Yes Cowboy can throw straights and kick his ass off. Yes Nate Diaz just put hands on Conor. Those fighters are technically sound strikers yet were overcome by the aggression of Dos Anjos. Eddie Alvarez is a different type of striker that throws bolos with bad intentions. With that being said, I cannot see alvarez taking a backwards step without returning some heat of his own. If Eddie can snuff out the early takedown attempts and make RDA taste the power, I can see him getting the TKO finish.
Eddie Alvarez by TKO, round 2.
Jed Meshew: Honestly, I feel like Eddie Alvarez has been overrated these past couple of weeks. Can he win? Sure. It's lightweight. Anyone can win any day of the week and if RDA just decides to have a firefight in the center of the cage, maybe Eddie puts his lights out. But realistically, Eddie Alvarez should be 1-2 in the UFC with his lone winning being a tight, decision over Giblert Melendez who is a featherweight. RDA ain't no featherweight. He's enormous, has found pant-shitting power, and is the best pressure fighter in the game. Eddie can wrestle but he isn't gonna Khabib RDA or wall and stall his way to a decision. RDA is gonna be in his face for 5 rounds or less, kicking the absolute shit out of him. Alvarez is tough as nails but all that is gonna do is prolong the beating. Moreover, Alvarez's insistence that "there's no such thing as overtraining" is buffoonish and may also play a role here. 150 live sparring rounds will have taken their toll and I expect Alvarez to fade as RDA pours it on later.
RDA by TKO, round 5.
Staff picking RDA: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Bissell, Anton, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Alvarez: Eddie, Tim
Derrick Lewis vs. Roy Nelson
Mookie Alexander: Well let's see here - Lewis has been KO'd before by fighters worse than Nelson. Roy still hits hard. Lewis also isn't a particularly fast starter and I wouldn't put it past Nelson to also shoot for takedowns. Logically, the pick is Nelson. Heavyweight does not work on logical reasoning. Lewis is going to land more than Nelson, avoid the right hand (which has KO'd zero people outside of round 1 in Nelson's entire career), and take a unanimous decision.
Derrick Lewis by unanimous decision.
Anton Tabuena: Heavyweights are unpredictable, but I believe this is Nelson's fight to lose. This will probably be one of the very few times that Roy Nelson faces a willing striker who is a lot less technical than him. Lewis has the size, but will have defensive lapses on the feet and a much weaker ground game as well.
Roy Nelson by KO.
Victor Rodriguez: This is strange, because normally I'd go with Roy's experience and fight IQ to set up a good counter game and really shut off Lewis' lights. Problem is that despite my previous assertion that Lewis hit his ceiling in the Mitrione fight, he really has gotten better with each outing and might really put the pressure on Nelson to work angles and do some serious damage, and you have to wonder how much more damage Nelson is able to take before he gets slept again. Granted, only Marku Hantu was able to put him away clean like that (at least since Arlovski did years ago), but Lewis has that kind of power. This fight is a nightmare for Lewis if it hits the ground, but both guys love to stand anyway, so there's that. Wouldn't have gone with this pick, but I'll take a flyer here and go with Lewis.
Derrick Lewis by TKO/KO.
Phil Mackenzie: Derrick Lewis is big and a ridiculous athlete for the division. He's also not a quick starter or defensively responsible or (and let's be honest) good. He's beaten grapplers by physically overpowering them rather than by using footwork to avoid shots. He's beaten strikers by... Derrick Lewis has never beaten strikers. You beat Roy Nelson by avoiding his offense, you don't beat him by absorbing it then being huge and scary. I know people want to believe in a beautiful future of exceptional heavyweight athletes who actually learn how to fight, and that's a wonderful dream but a fragile and ephemeral one, which can be adequately shattered by a fat greybeard who throws one punch.
Roy Nelson by KO, round 1.
Eddie: Roy has always had an outstanding chin and should have a higher FIQ than Lewis. It makes sense to pick Roy here but if he cannot find a home for his patented nuke of a right hand, then what? Roy has the tools to win but i'm picking the beast in this one.
Derrick Lewis by Decision.
Jed: If you aren't picking Derrick Lewis, you hate fun. DL Huge Beast is the heavyweight champion of my heart and I hope he manages to crack the iron beard of Big Country.
Lewis by KO, round 1.
Staff picking Lewis: Nick, Victor, Stephie, Bissell, Eddie, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Nelson: Phil, Anton
Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
Mookie Alexander: Alan Jouban fights are fun fights to watch, and while Muhammad comes into this having won the Titan FC title, I feel like Jouban is too crafty and powerful, particularly with his speed and diverse striking on the inside, for Muhammad to deal with.
Alan Jouban by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Very close fight. I think I give Jouban the edge due to sheer physicality and the way that he is not the man to allow a UFC debutant to get their bearings. That said, he's not a terribly technical striker and Muhammad is clean and far more defensively responsible.
Alan Jouban by unanimous decision.
Eddie: Tough debut fight for Belal. Although Muhammad will have his moments, Jouban is too seasoned to fumble this one. There are levels to this.
Alan Jouban by Decision.
Jed: This fight is gonna rock and I honestly have no idea what is gonna happen. Jouban has the physical advantages and the experience. I think he wins a razor decision where he does some good clinch work.
Jouban by decision.
Staff picking Jouban: Bissell, Eddie, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Jed
Staff picking Muhammad: Nick, Zane
Mitch Clarke vs. Joseph Duffy
Mookie Alexander: Incredibly tempted to pick Clarke here because he's just so damn tough and durable, but Duffy is still a dynamic talent who possesses the technical skills plus power to win this by knockout.
Joseph Duffy via TKO, round 2.
Anton Tabuena: Clarke seems funny and all, and moving to Jackson-Wink probably helps him improve a bit, but based on what I've seen in the cage, Duffy is just on a completely different level.
Joseph Duffy by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: Mitch Clarke is a great guy but this one doesn't need much elaboration. He's a better version of the same kind of limited grappler that Duffy smoked in his first two UFC outings and unless we've drastically misread Duffy and his potential this is a layup.
Joseph Duffy by TKO, round 2.
Eddie: Interview bias for live underdog "Danger Zone" Mitch Clarke.
Mitch Clarke via Canadian D'arce, round 2.
Jed: Mitch Clarke will always have that dope-ass anaconda over Al Iaquinta, but he's not gonna have a good day here. Duffy is one of the best boxers in the division and he is gonna box Clarke up before stopping him midway through.
Duffy by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Clarke: Eddie
Staff picking Duffy: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Tim, Zane, Jed
Alberto Mina vs. Mike Pyle
Mookie Alexander: I shouldn't be picking against Pyle when he's burned me enough times, but even with the win against Sean Spencer, it was a comeback victory against a guy who lacks both power and volume. Mina is a technical mess from time to time, his gas tank is a big question mark, but he is powerful, and Pyle is crackable, so ... time to dive into the deep end.
Alberto Mina by TKO, round 1.
Anton Tabuena: Pyle has way more experience and is also more technical on the feet. Mina, while well rounded, gets a bit too wild and crazy at times, which could compromise not only his defense but his gas tank for the later rounds. A few years ago, I wouldn't have hesitated picking Pyle, but the guy is turning 41. Any signs of declining reaction time or chin would be bad against a guy as dangerous as Mina.
Alberto Mina by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: I guess I'm just going to make this pick almost every time now for Mike Pyle. He's one of the oldest fighters on roster and fights at welterweight, which is a division filled with strong, technically sound athletes. Compounding this is the way that he's just never been that durable and isn't a quick starter either. Alberto Mina is not a flawless fighter but he is aggressive and hits very hard.
Alberto Mina by KO, round 1.
Jed: Super conflicted about this one. Pyle is the better technical fighter but there is gonna be a major drop off for him soon. I just have a hard time picking a 40 year old dude going into a cage fight with a young guy with some talent.
Mina by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Mina: Bissell, Phil, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Pyle: Nick, Eddie
Mehdi Baghdad vs. John Makdessi
Phil Mackenzie: Makdessi has a really good style. Educated jab, good right hand, snappy TKD-style kicks. He's just a small and underwhelming athlete. Baghdad is bigger and tougher, but he's also a lot sloppier. No Tristar is somewhat worrying but
John Makdessi by unanimous decision
Jed: Legit I am baffled by how many people are picking Mehdi here. Makdessi is definitely small and pretty inconsistent but it seems like he has massive technical edges here which should carry the day.
Makdessi by decision.
Staff picking Baghdad: Nick, Bissell, Stephie, Mookie
Staff picking Makdessi: Phil, Anton, Tim, Zane, Eddie, Jed
Anthony Birchak vs. Dileno Lopes
Phil Mackenzie: Lopes got a nasty lesson last time out, which is that there are people that he can't kill with single shot counters or guillotines. He's still a fine prospect, but this seems like a tough style matchup- a better and more experienced striker who is himself a pretty great athlete. Birchak's own aggression will give Lopes windows of opportunity but
Anthony Birchak by unanimous decision.
Jed: Phil has this one spot on.
Birchak by fun decision.
Staff picking Birchak: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Eddie, Jed
Staff picking Lopes:
Russell Doane vs. Pedro Munhoz
Anton Tabuena: This is admittedly a pretty biased pick for me. I like Doane's style, and I've seen him compete and grow since he was in the Asia-pacific scene. On the other hand, Munhoz failed a drug test (that his camp contests), so I know who I'm rooting for.
Russell Doane by Decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Like Burns below (but less pronounced) this is a slightly soft return for a prospect after he hit a tough wall. Doane is an underrated fighter, but this is a poor style matchup for him, where I don't think he can sprawl and brawl against Munhoz's developing but solid kickboxing, and running Doane's traditional phase-shift mixups means tangling with a much better grappler.
Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision.
Jed: Call me crazy but I see a path to victory here for Doane. Munhoz is obviously very talented, especially as a grappler, but on the feet he is defensively porous and Doane will have a sizable reach advantage. Doane's penchant for inactivity is cause for concern but I think he can effectively sprawl and brawl here, and also could take Munhoz down and hold his own on top. Gimme the upset.
Doane by decision.
Staff picking Doane: Anton, Jed
Staff picking Munhoz: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Eddie
Felipe Arantes vs. Jerrod Sanders
Phil Mackenzie: Story of this one seems to be Arantes' terrible TDD against Sanders' sub-par offense when it comes to anything that isn't wrestling. I think I like Arantes- he's one of those guys like Condit who's been outwrestled so much that it doesn't bother or drain him too much. He's going to keep looking for subs or big strikes, and scrambling or sweeping, and I think eventually Sanders runs into something.
Felipe Arantes by TKO, round 2.
Jed: Phil has the gist of it here, only I disagree with his outcome. I think Arantes is likely the "better" fighter all around but this sure looks like he's about to get held down for 15 minutes. And holy shit, somehow I'm the only one picking him? Cowards. Cowards one and all.
Sanders via decision.
Staff picking Arantes: Nick, Bissell, Phil, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Sanders: Jed
Gilbert Burns vs. Lukasz Sajewski
Mookie Alexander: For the record, "Wookie" Sajewski is not related to me, even though his nickname is just my name but with the M flipped 180 degrees.
Gilbert Burns by submission, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Relative softball here for Burns following the puzzling booking against a style nightmare in Rashid Magomedov. Wookie is fairly well-rounded and tough, but doesn't present the dynamic threats necessary to really win this fight in any phase. Burns can likely practice his striking and fall back on the grappling game when he needs it.
Gilbert Burns by submission, round 3.
Jed: Gilbert Burns has sick grapples. He is gonna put them all over the neck and back of Sajewski.
Burns via rear-naked choke, round 2.
Staff picking Burns: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Jed, Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Sajewski:
Marco Beltran vs. Reginaldo Vieira
Phil Mackenzie: Vieira had a really fun fight where he beat a favoured prospect in Dileno Lopes last time out. Beltran had a fairly awful showing where he scraped past Ning Guangyou. Finish is on the cards but I think we get a progressively more one-sided
Reginaldo Vieira by unanimous decision.
Jed: Beltran should be able to land takedowns here and just kind of hustle on top. Sort of tempted by Beltran but I'm a coward.
Vieira by late stoppage.
Staff picking Beltran: Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Vieira: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Jed
Alvaro Herrera vs. Vicente Luque
Phil Mackenzie: He's gotten with Jacksons, but I don't see Herrera making one of the TUF LatAm miracle improvements. He hits pretty hard and has decent instincts, but he's primarily a big, clunky striker who feasts on people trying to grapple with him. Think Luque just kickboxes with him from the outside. Might rock and tap him, but
I'll take Vicente Luque by TKO, round 2.
Jed: Luque seems to be a little more technical on the feet and that anaconda shoke he hit was pretty dope so I'll give him the edge here.
Luque by decision.
Staff picking Herrera: Nick, Stephie, Mookie
Staff picking Luque: Phil, Bissell, Anton, Tim, Jed, Zane, Eddie
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez
Mookie Alexander: Here's the thing that's sort of been overlooked - RDA hasn't fought anyone with very good takedowns since he fought Khabib and then Jason High in back-to-back fights. RDA lost to Khabib, and the High fight was more competitive than I remember it being upon rewatch. Truth be told, Ben Henderson's wrestling isn't that consistent and RDA KO'd him in 2.5 minutes anyway, Nate Diaz isn't a serious takedown threat, neither is Anthony Pettis, and Cerrone hasn't recorded more than 2 takedowns in a fight in over 3 years. Alvarez is a better wrestler than all of RDA's opponents during his winning streak. It's not far-fetched to think that Eddie can both outstrike Rafael at range, close the distance and go for takedowns, or at least force some ugly clinch-fighting. The problem I have with picking Eddie is RDA's heavy leg kicks, pressure fighting, and excellent cardio, and dogged determination combined with his more refined skill set is just going to be too much for Alvarez in the later rounds. I think Eddie has a real chance at victory, but RDA is going to pull away late.
Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision.
Anton Tabuena: This could very well end up in a firefight that makes it a much closer bout, but picking this is pretty much straightforward to me. I believe Dos Anjos should be faster, less shopworn, and more technical both standing and on the ground.
Rafael Dos Anjos by Decision.
Eddie Mercado: In Alvarez's UFC debut, we saw him get controlled on the ground a bit by the likes of Donald Cerrone. RDA can potentially present an even greater threat on the ground than Cowboy did. On the flip side, Dos Anjos hasn't faced an opponent with a heavy handed kickboxing game since, well, Jeremy Stephens back at UFC 91 in 2008. Yes Anthony Pettis can kickbox. Yes Cowboy can throw straights and kick his ass off. Yes Nate Diaz just put hands on Conor. Those fighters are technically sound strikers yet were overcome by the aggression of Dos Anjos. Eddie Alvarez is a different type of striker that throws bolos with bad intentions. With that being said, I cannot see alvarez taking a backwards step without returning some heat of his own. If Eddie can snuff out the early takedown attempts and make RDA taste the power, I can see him getting the TKO finish.
Eddie Alvarez by TKO, round 2.
Jed Meshew: Honestly, I feel like Eddie Alvarez has been overrated these past couple of weeks. Can he win? Sure. It's lightweight. Anyone can win any day of the week and if RDA just decides to have a firefight in the center of the cage, maybe Eddie puts his lights out. But realistically, Eddie Alvarez should be 1-2 in the UFC with his lone winning being a tight, decision over Giblert Melendez who is a featherweight. RDA ain't no featherweight. He's enormous, has found pant-shitting power, and is the best pressure fighter in the game. Eddie can wrestle but he isn't gonna Khabib RDA or wall and stall his way to a decision. RDA is gonna be in his face for 5 rounds or less, kicking the absolute shit out of him. Alvarez is tough as nails but all that is gonna do is prolong the beating. Moreover, Alvarez's insistence that "there's no such thing as overtraining" is buffoonish and may also play a role here. 150 live sparring rounds will have taken their toll and I expect Alvarez to fade as RDA pours it on later.
RDA by TKO, round 5.
Staff picking RDA: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Bissell, Anton, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Alvarez: Eddie, Tim
Derrick Lewis vs. Roy Nelson
Mookie Alexander: Well let's see here - Lewis has been KO'd before by fighters worse than Nelson. Roy still hits hard. Lewis also isn't a particularly fast starter and I wouldn't put it past Nelson to also shoot for takedowns. Logically, the pick is Nelson. Heavyweight does not work on logical reasoning. Lewis is going to land more than Nelson, avoid the right hand (which has KO'd zero people outside of round 1 in Nelson's entire career), and take a unanimous decision.
Derrick Lewis by unanimous decision.
Anton Tabuena: Heavyweights are unpredictable, but I believe this is Nelson's fight to lose. This will probably be one of the very few times that Roy Nelson faces a willing striker who is a lot less technical than him. Lewis has the size, but will have defensive lapses on the feet and a much weaker ground game as well.
Roy Nelson by KO.
Victor Rodriguez: This is strange, because normally I'd go with Roy's experience and fight IQ to set up a good counter game and really shut off Lewis' lights. Problem is that despite my previous assertion that Lewis hit his ceiling in the Mitrione fight, he really has gotten better with each outing and might really put the pressure on Nelson to work angles and do some serious damage, and you have to wonder how much more damage Nelson is able to take before he gets slept again. Granted, only Marku Hantu was able to put him away clean like that (at least since Arlovski did years ago), but Lewis has that kind of power. This fight is a nightmare for Lewis if it hits the ground, but both guys love to stand anyway, so there's that. Wouldn't have gone with this pick, but I'll take a flyer here and go with Lewis.
Derrick Lewis by TKO/KO.
Phil Mackenzie: Derrick Lewis is big and a ridiculous athlete for the division. He's also not a quick starter or defensively responsible or (and let's be honest) good. He's beaten grapplers by physically overpowering them rather than by using footwork to avoid shots. He's beaten strikers by... Derrick Lewis has never beaten strikers. You beat Roy Nelson by avoiding his offense, you don't beat him by absorbing it then being huge and scary. I know people want to believe in a beautiful future of exceptional heavyweight athletes who actually learn how to fight, and that's a wonderful dream but a fragile and ephemeral one, which can be adequately shattered by a fat greybeard who throws one punch.
Roy Nelson by KO, round 1.
Eddie: Roy has always had an outstanding chin and should have a higher FIQ than Lewis. It makes sense to pick Roy here but if he cannot find a home for his patented nuke of a right hand, then what? Roy has the tools to win but i'm picking the beast in this one.
Derrick Lewis by Decision.
Jed: If you aren't picking Derrick Lewis, you hate fun. DL Huge Beast is the heavyweight champion of my heart and I hope he manages to crack the iron beard of Big Country.
Lewis by KO, round 1.
Staff picking Lewis: Nick, Victor, Stephie, Bissell, Eddie, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Nelson: Phil, Anton
Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
Mookie Alexander: Alan Jouban fights are fun fights to watch, and while Muhammad comes into this having won the Titan FC title, I feel like Jouban is too crafty and powerful, particularly with his speed and diverse striking on the inside, for Muhammad to deal with.
Alan Jouban by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Very close fight. I think I give Jouban the edge due to sheer physicality and the way that he is not the man to allow a UFC debutant to get their bearings. That said, he's not a terribly technical striker and Muhammad is clean and far more defensively responsible.
Alan Jouban by unanimous decision.
Eddie: Tough debut fight for Belal. Although Muhammad will have his moments, Jouban is too seasoned to fumble this one. There are levels to this.
Alan Jouban by Decision.
Jed: This fight is gonna rock and I honestly have no idea what is gonna happen. Jouban has the physical advantages and the experience. I think he wins a razor decision where he does some good clinch work.
Jouban by decision.
Staff picking Jouban: Bissell, Eddie, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Jed
Staff picking Muhammad: Nick, Zane
Mitch Clarke vs. Joseph Duffy
Mookie Alexander: Incredibly tempted to pick Clarke here because he's just so damn tough and durable, but Duffy is still a dynamic talent who possesses the technical skills plus power to win this by knockout.
Joseph Duffy via TKO, round 2.
Anton Tabuena: Clarke seems funny and all, and moving to Jackson-Wink probably helps him improve a bit, but based on what I've seen in the cage, Duffy is just on a completely different level.
Joseph Duffy by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: Mitch Clarke is a great guy but this one doesn't need much elaboration. He's a better version of the same kind of limited grappler that Duffy smoked in his first two UFC outings and unless we've drastically misread Duffy and his potential this is a layup.
Joseph Duffy by TKO, round 2.
Eddie: Interview bias for live underdog "Danger Zone" Mitch Clarke.
Mitch Clarke via Canadian D'arce, round 2.
Jed: Mitch Clarke will always have that dope-ass anaconda over Al Iaquinta, but he's not gonna have a good day here. Duffy is one of the best boxers in the division and he is gonna box Clarke up before stopping him midway through.
Duffy by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Clarke: Eddie
Staff picking Duffy: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Tim, Zane, Jed
Alberto Mina vs. Mike Pyle
Mookie Alexander: I shouldn't be picking against Pyle when he's burned me enough times, but even with the win against Sean Spencer, it was a comeback victory against a guy who lacks both power and volume. Mina is a technical mess from time to time, his gas tank is a big question mark, but he is powerful, and Pyle is crackable, so ... time to dive into the deep end.
Alberto Mina by TKO, round 1.
Anton Tabuena: Pyle has way more experience and is also more technical on the feet. Mina, while well rounded, gets a bit too wild and crazy at times, which could compromise not only his defense but his gas tank for the later rounds. A few years ago, I wouldn't have hesitated picking Pyle, but the guy is turning 41. Any signs of declining reaction time or chin would be bad against a guy as dangerous as Mina.
Alberto Mina by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: I guess I'm just going to make this pick almost every time now for Mike Pyle. He's one of the oldest fighters on roster and fights at welterweight, which is a division filled with strong, technically sound athletes. Compounding this is the way that he's just never been that durable and isn't a quick starter either. Alberto Mina is not a flawless fighter but he is aggressive and hits very hard.
Alberto Mina by KO, round 1.
Jed: Super conflicted about this one. Pyle is the better technical fighter but there is gonna be a major drop off for him soon. I just have a hard time picking a 40 year old dude going into a cage fight with a young guy with some talent.
Mina by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Mina: Bissell, Phil, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Jed
Staff picking Pyle: Nick, Eddie
Mehdi Baghdad vs. John Makdessi
Phil Mackenzie: Makdessi has a really good style. Educated jab, good right hand, snappy TKD-style kicks. He's just a small and underwhelming athlete. Baghdad is bigger and tougher, but he's also a lot sloppier. No Tristar is somewhat worrying but
John Makdessi by unanimous decision
Jed: Legit I am baffled by how many people are picking Mehdi here. Makdessi is definitely small and pretty inconsistent but it seems like he has massive technical edges here which should carry the day.
Makdessi by decision.
Staff picking Baghdad: Nick, Bissell, Stephie, Mookie
Staff picking Makdessi: Phil, Anton, Tim, Zane, Eddie, Jed
Anthony Birchak vs. Dileno Lopes
Phil Mackenzie: Lopes got a nasty lesson last time out, which is that there are people that he can't kill with single shot counters or guillotines. He's still a fine prospect, but this seems like a tough style matchup- a better and more experienced striker who is himself a pretty great athlete. Birchak's own aggression will give Lopes windows of opportunity but
Anthony Birchak by unanimous decision.
Jed: Phil has this one spot on.
Birchak by fun decision.
Staff picking Birchak: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Eddie, Jed
Staff picking Lopes:
Russell Doane vs. Pedro Munhoz
Anton Tabuena: This is admittedly a pretty biased pick for me. I like Doane's style, and I've seen him compete and grow since he was in the Asia-pacific scene. On the other hand, Munhoz failed a drug test (that his camp contests), so I know who I'm rooting for.
Russell Doane by Decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Like Burns below (but less pronounced) this is a slightly soft return for a prospect after he hit a tough wall. Doane is an underrated fighter, but this is a poor style matchup for him, where I don't think he can sprawl and brawl against Munhoz's developing but solid kickboxing, and running Doane's traditional phase-shift mixups means tangling with a much better grappler.
Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision.
Jed: Call me crazy but I see a path to victory here for Doane. Munhoz is obviously very talented, especially as a grappler, but on the feet he is defensively porous and Doane will have a sizable reach advantage. Doane's penchant for inactivity is cause for concern but I think he can effectively sprawl and brawl here, and also could take Munhoz down and hold his own on top. Gimme the upset.
Doane by decision.
Staff picking Doane: Anton, Jed
Staff picking Munhoz: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Eddie
Felipe Arantes vs. Jerrod Sanders
Phil Mackenzie: Story of this one seems to be Arantes' terrible TDD against Sanders' sub-par offense when it comes to anything that isn't wrestling. I think I like Arantes- he's one of those guys like Condit who's been outwrestled so much that it doesn't bother or drain him too much. He's going to keep looking for subs or big strikes, and scrambling or sweeping, and I think eventually Sanders runs into something.
Felipe Arantes by TKO, round 2.
Jed: Phil has the gist of it here, only I disagree with his outcome. I think Arantes is likely the "better" fighter all around but this sure looks like he's about to get held down for 15 minutes. And holy shit, somehow I'm the only one picking him? Cowards. Cowards one and all.
Sanders via decision.
Staff picking Arantes: Nick, Bissell, Phil, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Sanders: Jed
Gilbert Burns vs. Lukasz Sajewski
Mookie Alexander: For the record, "Wookie" Sajewski is not related to me, even though his nickname is just my name but with the M flipped 180 degrees.
Gilbert Burns by submission, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Relative softball here for Burns following the puzzling booking against a style nightmare in Rashid Magomedov. Wookie is fairly well-rounded and tough, but doesn't present the dynamic threats necessary to really win this fight in any phase. Burns can likely practice his striking and fall back on the grappling game when he needs it.
Gilbert Burns by submission, round 3.
Jed: Gilbert Burns has sick grapples. He is gonna put them all over the neck and back of Sajewski.
Burns via rear-naked choke, round 2.
Staff picking Burns: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Jed, Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Sajewski:
Marco Beltran vs. Reginaldo Vieira
Phil Mackenzie: Vieira had a really fun fight where he beat a favoured prospect in Dileno Lopes last time out. Beltran had a fairly awful showing where he scraped past Ning Guangyou. Finish is on the cards but I think we get a progressively more one-sided
Reginaldo Vieira by unanimous decision.
Jed: Beltran should be able to land takedowns here and just kind of hustle on top. Sort of tempted by Beltran but I'm a coward.
Vieira by late stoppage.
Staff picking Beltran: Zane, Eddie
Staff picking Vieira: Nick, Phil, Bissell, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Tim, Jed
Alvaro Herrera vs. Vicente Luque
Phil Mackenzie: He's gotten with Jacksons, but I don't see Herrera making one of the TUF LatAm miracle improvements. He hits pretty hard and has decent instincts, but he's primarily a big, clunky striker who feasts on people trying to grapple with him. Think Luque just kickboxes with him from the outside. Might rock and tap him, but
I'll take Vicente Luque by TKO, round 2.
Jed: Luque seems to be a little more technical on the feet and that anaconda shoke he hit was pretty dope so I'll give him the edge here.
Luque by decision.
Staff picking Herrera: Nick, Stephie, Mookie
Staff picking Luque: Phil, Bissell, Anton, Tim, Jed, Zane, Eddie
