UFC Fight Night: Expert best bets for Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett ?

[HacheMan]

UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett​

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Calvin Kattar and Josh Emmett, two of the best featherweights in the world, will link up Saturday for UFC Fight Night as the main event in Austin, Texas.

Kattar, No. 6 in ESPN's featherweight rankings, has won three of his past four and comes in on a two-match "Fight of the Night" streak for his contests against Giga Chikadze (win) and former featherweight champion Max Holloway (loss).

Emmett, ranked No. 8 in ESPN's featherweight rankings, continues his impressive return from injury after tearing his left ACL in a victory versus Shane Burgos in June 2020. Emmett's win over Dan Ige in December 2021 was nearly 18 months after his knee surgery, as he carries a four-fight winning streak into Austin.

ESPN's Marc Raimondi touched base with an MMA coaching veteran to get his perspective on a pivotal featherweight matchup and how things could play out inside the octagon. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn added their insights and analysis for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.

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Featherweight: Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett​

Eddie Cha, Fight Ready striking coach​

Tale Of The Tape: Kattar Vs. Emmett​

	KATTAR	EMMETT
Age	34.7	37.3
Height	5-11	5-6
Reach	72.0	70.0
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Last fight	Jan. 15, 2022	Dec. 11, 2021

How Kattar wins: I think he's a better boxer, which will be the key to this fight. I thought the game plan that Kattar and his coach, Tyson Chartier, put together for Kattar's last fight against Giga Chikadze was great. Kattar took away Giga's body kicks and his pressure was effective. He did a phenomenal job executing the game plan. I think Kattar grew from that loss to Max Holloway. Kattar has such high volume, as you saw in his last fight. Giga was so hot coming in with people wondering how to stop his leg and liver kicks. Calvin just stuffed everything. Kattar and his team need to devise an answer to avoid Emmett's big shots, maybe knees up the middle or a teep kick. Of course, Kattar will look to establish his jab.

How Emmett wins: I think Josh Emmett is an excellent fighter and extremely dangerous with his power punching, which is where he has the edge here. I'm also a fan of Emmett's striking coach, Joey Rodriguez, and how they set up game plans as a team. I think Emmett must outstrike Kattar and mix in wrestling to keep him honest. Josh is an entirely different style from Chikadze -- I love Josh's style, which is based a lot on lateral movement. He's a great athlete, explosive and can get the job done. I do have reservations about Josh's age (37) and coming back from knee surgery two fights ago. I have guys that age and recovery is a big part of their training. Emmett's team will have to come up with something great against Kattar, and I think they can. I get excited when I see good coaches with great fighters.

X factor: Emmett's power. Depending on his cardio, how he feels with his knee and the game plan, instead of trying to hurt Kattar early, you can play a point game the first three minutes of the round and then push hard in the last two. If Calvin is constantly pressuring you and making you throw when you don't want to, it's a hard style to deal with. You have to hold your ground. Emmett has to avoid that if he can.

Prediction: Kattar by decision. Emmett can certainly get the job done, but Kattar has proven himself durable in five-round fights. Emmett has trained for five-round fights before, but if you've never finished one, I think the fighter wonders whether or not they have the gas tank for it. Emmett's style is based on lateral movement and that requires a lot of cardio. Kattar is so durable, his distance is good and his boxing looked phenomenal in his last fight. His volume might be a problem for Emmett.

Betting analysis​

UFC Fight Night: Kattar Vs. Emmett​

Stand-up striking offense	Kattar	Emmett
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	5:0	11:1
Distance knockdown rate	2.1%	5.7%
Head jab accuracy	34%	20%
Head power accuracy	36%	30%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	0.8	0.9
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.12	0.19
Takedown Accuracy	29%	48%
Advances per takedown/top control	0.3	0.5
Opponent takedown attempts	19	12
Takedown defense	89%	58%
Share of fight time in ground control	84%	72%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.14	0.07
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Kattar to win (-230). Kattar must be a frustrating draw for anyone, given his huge frame at featherweight. He'll look like a giant against Josh Emmett, and that range differential will come in handy. Kattar uses a very measured attack with plenty of jabs, highly precise in his standup striking. That should keep the smaller fighter at bay.

Neither fighter is an eager wrestler, but Kattar's numbers are a little better there, as is his strength of competition. The biggest red flag for an upset is Emmett's power, with 11 career knockdowns and a knockdown rate that holds up compared with larger divisions. However, that requires him to get close enough to take advantage of Kattar's loose defense. Kattar's range and durable chin could save him in case of a temporary scare while he pumps the jab and wins rounds on points.

 

[HacheMan]

Best bets on the rest of the card​

Kevin Holland vs. Tim Means​

Kuhn: Holland to win (-280). Kevin Holland is among the few UFC fighters who could easily be confused with being a superhero, having captured criminals in the act and rescued survivors from car wreckage. His 81-inch reach and precise power striking are nearly as impressive as the elevated pace he maintains throughout fights.

He's facing a proven veteran in Means, but one who has taken his fair share of damage over the years and hasn't shown the best strike avoidance. Should these two go toe-to-toe, and they likely will, Holland's striking speed should be the difference in the fight.

Julian Marquez vs. Gregory Rodrigues​

Parker: Fight does not go the distance. Riding a two-fight win streak, with both wins coming by way of submission, Marquez will be looking to make it three in a row at the expense of Rodrigues. Rodrigues, whose four-fight winning streak came to an end recently by split decision, will look to get back on track versus Marquez. Both fighters are known for finishing and don't shy away from the action. I do not expect this fight to go the distance, with a combined 18 finishes out of 20 wins between both fighters. Whether by submission or knockout, someone is going to sleep before the third round ends.

Court McGee vs. Jeremiah Wells​

Parker: Over 2.5 rounds. In McGee's past nine fights dating back to 2016, win or lose, they have all ended by decision. McGee has always been a hard-nosed fighter who uses his boxing to set up his wrestling and tire his opponents. McGee will face rising prospect Jeremiah Wells, who won his past two fights by finish and the only losses of his career have come by decision. This will likely be the first time in Wells' UFC career that he will see the third round as McGee has a high fight IQ, is extremely durable and knows how to avoid damage in uncomfortable situations. I like this fight to go over 2.5 rounds as I see McGee using his clinch work and wrestling to take away the power of Wells and drag him into deep waters where he thrives.

Cody Stamann vs. Eddie Wineland​

Parker: Stamann to win, play in a parlay. Stamann and Wineland will likely be fighting for their spots on the roster in a must-win situation. Coming off his third loss in a row, Stamann is the biggest favorite on the card, currently sitting at -500. Usually, these odds are unfathomable when a fighter has this many losses in a row, but in this situation, it's understandable.


Stamann is a powerful striker and technical boxer with good accuracy. However, his strength is his wrestling. Unless Wineland lands a wild punch, he shouldn't be a threat elsewhere. Because the odds are so heavy, look to put Stamann in any of your parlays for this fight card.

Three-way play on the undercard​

Kuhn: Daukaus, Stamann and Ramos for parlays. There are lots of worthy favorites to choose from on this card. Start with submission ace Kyle Daukaus, facing an opponent (Roman Dolidze) with a subpar takedown defense rate (38%). Much of that fight will be exactly where Daukaus wants it -- on the ground, where he excels most.

Stamann is another dominant wrestler, and he's facing an opponent in Wineland who is among the least interested in going to the ground. These stylistic mismatches often favor the grappler.

And lastly, Ricardo Ramos faces a much older, yet less experienced, opponent in Danny Chavez. Mixing these guys with the favorites makes for more reasonable prices on the pairings.