DFS and other Betting ideas.....good summaries
Jamie-Lyn Horth (-154) vs. Hailey Cowan (+126)
Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | $18 | 5' 7" | -- | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hailey Cowan | $12 | 5' 8" | 67" | 0.46 | 1.44 |
A UFC fighter rarely gets signed off
Dana White's Contender Series for a decision win, and
Hailey Cowan isn't making very good on being the rare exception.
Cowan has had two fights canceled to this point, and it was a bit of a mystery she got the nod to begin with. Cowan landed just 1.72 significant strikes per minute on the show with forgettable 42% accuracy. She also landed a takedown on just one attempt.
I had no idea what to expect in a debut before the canceled fights, and now
Jamie-Lyn Horth adds another layer of uncertainty by making her promotional debut. Horth, the
top-ranked unaffiliated Canadian at women's 135 before this official start, has secured an early finish in all five starts -- including her one and only appearance with LFA.
This fight is -220 to see over 2.5 rounds. Other than a flimsy projection that's showing a touch of value on the "under" thanks to Horth's 100% pro finishing rate, this isn't the spot to fire anything off with confidence.
Betting Verdict: I won't even fire at under 2.5 rounds despite a smidge of value showing, which is there due to Horth's finishing rate. These are two total unknowns.
DFS Verdict: Overwhelmingly, this grappling-heavy environment seems like one to avoid. If there is upside, it's likely from Horth (100% finishing rate) as Cowan's toughest opponent to date.
Journey Newson (-188) vs. Marcus McGhee (+152)
Catchweight (140 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Journey Newson | $20 | 5' 5" | 67" | 0.34 | 2.02 |
| Marcus McGhee | $11 | 5' 8" | 70" | 0.00 | 0.00 |
This one become about accepting or rejecting
Journey Newson after Brian Kelleher
pulled out of this fight on Wednesday. LFA bantamweight
Marcus McGhee will step in on short notice.
Admittedly, Newson's not my favorite. He's averaged fewer than three significant strikes per minute with UFC thus far, but his +0.34 SSR and 66% striking defense were good enough to eke out multiple wins with the promotion at this stage.
McGhee is a total unknown coming from MMA Lab in Arizona, training with UFC veterans like Kyler Phillips and Jared Cannonier. It doesn't mean much to be
around success, but it's a quality gym. A vast majority of
McGhee's available footage comes at distance, and his record -- with zero wins by submission -- backs that up.
With just a 43% takedown defense, Newson
wouldn't have signed on the dotted line to face a grappler when needing a win badly. In fact, Newson has shown 0.65 takedowns per 15 minutes and offered a submission attempt. It's a plausible path to dominate this fight if McGhee is lost there.
A fluke knockout is always possible, but I won't be the guy to predict one from McGhee facing -- by far -- his hardest opponent yet and doing so on three days' notice.
Betting Verdict: There is too much unknown with McGhee to target a specific method of victory or lay this heavy moneyline. It's just not my process.
DFS Verdict: Newson at $20 has every conceivable advantage in experience, talent, and modest metrics on paper. However, averaging just 2.02 FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses), there hasn't been justification to force him into an MVP slot despite being a heavy favorite.
Stephanie Egger (-300) vs. Irina Alekseeva (+235)
Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Stephanie Egger | $22 | 5' 6" | 68" | 0.08 | 2.63 |
| Irina Alekseeva | $9 | 5' 8" | -- | 0.00 | 0.00 |
The UFC career of
Stephanie Egger has been an odd one, and I'd expect this next chapter will be, too.
Most of Egger's professional background is in
judo, and she's dominated women in UFC who weren't ready for that. She easily finished Shanna Young, Ailin Perez, and Jessica-Rose Clark (combined 5-9 UFC) as less adept grapplers, but those with jiu-jitsu or wrestling skills -- such as Tracy Cortez and Mayra Bueno Silva -- handed her lopsided Ls.
Irina Alekseeva is much more of a traditional, well-rounded MMA fighter. Dubbed "Russian Ronda," her primary offense is grappling, just like former divisional champion Ronda Rousey. Alekseeva last competed in North America's second-largest MMA promotion, Bellator, and earned a victory by unanimous decision. Alekseeva mixed her
wrestling with her
striking in that one.
The price on Egger's moneyline here is insanity given her known limitations when striking (+0.08 SSR), and she's defended takedowns at just a 44% clip due to her inexperience with more traditional MMA wrestling.
Alekseeva can do both of those in a
division that regularly spits out upsets. I wouldn't be shocked by another here.
Betting Verdict: Alekseeva's history with a bonafide promotion against modest competition leads me to believe she can compete here. I've taken a half-unit flier at +235.
DFS Verdict: Egger's 100% finishing rate in UFC makes her a scary fade if this leans her direction, but this fight is -146 to go over 2.5 rounds, and Alekseeva has arrows in her direction. I'd rather roster the underdog at $9.
Charles Johnson (-144) vs. Cody Durden (+128)
Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Charles Johnson | $16 | 5' 9" | 70" | 0.71 | 2.80 |
| Cody Durden | $13 | 5' 7" | 67" | 0.00 | 3.65 |
There's
sharp money coming in on
Cody Durden, but I really don't see the appeal.
Outside of an overwhelmed, short-notice debut against Mohammed Mokaev,
Charles Johnson has defended takedowns well. He's defended 9 of the last 13 that he's faced, which isn't a surprise for a dude that towers over the rest of this division.
Durden (4.17 takedowns per 15) has needed to get that going to win. He's landed at least four takedowns in every UFC win short of a quick run-in with the thin-chinned JP Buys (0-3 UFC). Durden's +0.00 SSR and 49% striking defense largely leave him as a sitting duck on his feet.
As a wrestler, Cody has also just attempted one submission in six fights. That leaves a lot of time for the more powerful Johnson (+0.71 SSR) to find a standing knockout or a ground-and-pound finish -- like the one he delivered to Jimmy Flick.
Johnson has landed at least 47% of his shots in all four UFC bouts. If Johnson's grappling issues were unmanageable, I'd sooner give Durden a chance. I can't imagine Cody's limited skillset moving to four wins in five fights when he's been embarrassed so emphatically previously.
Betting Verdict: Johnson hasn't secured a standing knockout yet in UFC but had two straight in LFA before transitioning over. With Durden's poor defense, I love his moneyline and Johnson by KO/TKO (+380).
DFS Verdict: Not a great environment despite my bullish leanings toward Johnson on the feet. Over 2.5 Rounds is -225. It likely means MVP is off the table, but Johnson could be a sneaky tournament play at $16.
Martin Buday (-110) vs. Jake Collier (-110)
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Jake Collier | $15 | 6' 3" | 78" | 0.93 | 3.97 |
| Martin Buday | $15 | 6' 4" | 77" | -0.29 | 2.75 |
This heavyweight pick'em hasn't budged all week, but I feel tremendously confident in picking
Martin Buday when I've been one of his largest cynics.
Buday has a bad habit of ugly clinch battles against the fence, and he got walloped with a -52 striking differential by Lukasz Brzeski (0-2 UFC) in his last bout. However, I have a high opinion of Brzeski (+1.76 SSR), and Buday's mutual opponent with
Jake Collier provides hope.
Buday had Chris Barnett on the ropes in his first UFC bout until an inadvertent elbow sent the fight to the judges prematurely, but he still easily won via unanimous decision. Barnett knocked out Collier in the second round last year.
Styles make fights, so that doesn't guarantee a Buday win, but Collier, a former 185-pounder with UFC, remains a volatile wager. He's more athletic than plenty of his opponents, but the extra weight often compromises his cardio, and his only two wins at heavyweight have come over foes that have a 2-8 record since the start of 2021.
Buday, having never been professionally finished, cuts to 265 pounds. The one-inch height discrepancy doesn't tell the story of the massive gap in power and size. If Collier has a speed advantage at distance, Buday likely swallows him against the cage anyway.
Betting Verdict: With even odds, I see value in Buday. This is a projected striking match, and Buday's striking accuracy (48%) and defense (55%) are both considerably higher.
DFS Verdict: Over 2.5 Rounds is -134 here, so this isn't a world-class environment, either. I'd still prefer Buday -- who has never been finished -- at $15 over the volatile Collier.
Josh Quinlan (-184) vs. Trey Waters (+148)
Welterweight (170 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Josh Quinlan | $19 | 6' 0" | 72" | 4.43 | 3.27 |
| Trey Waters | $11 | 6' 5" | 77" | -1.43 | 4.04 |
A prior edition of my process might have gotten this horribly wrong, but this improved handicap might
still be wrong.
Josh Quinlan is the type of fighter my analytical approach would heavily favor. Quinlan's card-best +4.43 SSR has come with an 80% striking defense, which would be a guy who's untouchable in an extended sample. However, this sample totals fewer than three minutes of octagon time.
That's why he's no steal at -188.
Trey Waters is the late-notice opponent, but he's actually got some tangible UFC experience. He fought on
Dana White's Contender Series against undefeated UFC winner Gabriel Bonfim, and he actually did pretty well. Waters had a 61% striking defense before a perilous guillotine choke attempt that resulted in him getting submitted himself.
At 6'5", Waters is a generational athletic freak at this weight class. We know basically nothing about these two, but Quinlan's lone path to victory thus far has been knocking out guys, and Waters has never felt that fate. Plus, Quinlan's grappling is totally untested at this level, and Waters willingly went into those waters with Bonfim -- pun intended.
Here's our first highly volatile fight of the evening with under 1.5 rounds at -130. Though a Quinlan knockout is on the table, I've adjusted the fight to a coinflip with all of the uncertainty and see some value in Waters.
Betting Verdict: Even though I lean toward Waters being a value at this number, I have no interest in this betting experience. The -130 price is a bit aggressive on an early finish given this fight is on a week's notice and could have a feeling-out process.
DFS Verdict: Quinlan, with gaudy counting stats and a history of KOs, should be overwhelmingly popular at $19. Waters, at an $11 salary, has the potential to finish this one early, too.
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