Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo, taking place at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ on Saturday.
Claudio Ribeiro (-170) vs. Joseph Holmes (+138)
Middleweight (185 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Claudio Ribeiro | $16 | 6' 1" | 77" | 1.02 | 2.35 |
| Joseph Holmes | $15 | 6' 4" | 80" | 0.37 | 2.72 |
Claudio Ribeiro was a modest favorite over UFC winner Abdul Razak-Alhassan in his debut and was flattened. Oddsmakers aren't shorter on him here.
I have a totally different handicap of this fight. Ribeiro was a home-run slugger in that one, but he defended just 41% of strikes and was looking for a highlight knockout while showing zero wrestling threat. Against good strikers, that just won't work.
Joseph Holmes has proven to be a pretty solid one. Importantly, he's absorbed just 2.73 significant strikes per minute behind an above-average 58% striking defense. If he can keep himself safe, he's got a three-inch reach advantage to poke away at the Brazilian.
Plus, Ribeiro's regional experience and his first fight showed zero acumen when grappling. "Uglyman Joe" has only lost in UFC via wrestling and grappling, and he's actually got six of his own eight professional wins by submission.
Never having been professionally knocked out, I'm not sure why things are slanted so far in that direction. I'd favor Holmes in both domains.
Betting Verdict: I'm showing tremendous value on Holmes' ML at +138, but he's also a fine dart by a submission (+380) given the enormous advantage regionally in that department.
DFS Verdict: At a $15 salary, Holmes' floor isn't the best, but he's an excellent swing for the fences in tournaments. I'd be more scared if he had a track record of a weak chin, but he hasn't been knocked down in UFC yet.
Ikram Aliskerov (-215) vs. Phil Hawes (+172)
Middleweight (185 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Ikram Aliskerov | $21 | 6' 0" | 76" | -4.65 | 7.08 |
| Phil Hawes | $9 | 6' 0" | 77" | 1.97 | 4.32 |
We haven't quite seen the Dagestani wrestling brigade take over 185 pounds, but
Ikram Aliskerov will try to do so.
He's a heavy favorite in his UFC debut by way of that pedigree, but I've got questions about that. His fights against UFC fighters
Khamzat Chimaev and
Denis Tiuliulin are free on YouTube, and you can watch for yourself; he wasn't supremely dominant or impressive. Chimaev flattened him quickly.
On top of that, he landed just 33% of his takedowns on the
Contender Series. It wasn't dominant. He'll have to pierce
Phil Hawes' perfect takedown defense (100%) this weekend, too.
With four UFC-affiliated knockdowns, Hawes has the power to replicate the Chimaev result, and on top of his perfect defense, he also lands his own takedowns at a higher 36% clip.
Everything about resumés and analytics favors Hawes, who is 4-2 in UFC, in this bout. Aliskerov's camp, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, has a boogeyman-level reputation, but not all of those fighters win and succeed constantly in UFC.
I'll take the proven veteran at this number.
Betting Verdict: I got one unit down on Hawes at +175, but he's a great bet anywhere at plus money. He's favored in my stuff, and the KO/TKO (+320) angle is interesting after what quick work Chimaev made of him.
DFS Verdict: Hawes has topped 100 FanDuel points in three of his five UFC-affiliated victories. Against what I'm grading as a step back in competition, he's got a monstrous ceiling at $9.
Parker Porter (-170) vs. Braxton Smith (+138)
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Parker Porter | $18 | 6' 0" | 75" | 0.16 | 4.63 |
| Braxton Smith | $12 | 5' 11" | -- | 0.00 | 0.00 |
This is our weekly lesson on heavyweight just being wildly different.
Braxton Smith wouldn't have earned a contract in another division. He was knocked out in 2014 by Chase Sherman (4-10 UFC) and retired. Since returning, he's knocked out five regional bums, including his last opponent twice. That was Jakori Savage, who is just 3-2 as a pro.
We've got no evidence of any tangible wrestling or grappling skill. His striking isn't crisp or refined. He's a 5'11" ball of muscle who hits like a truck, and that's his win condition against
Parker Porter.
Porter's portly frame often draws eye rolls from UFC fans, but he can fight. He's 3-3 with UFC, topping 100 significant strikes twice, and he's also added five career takedowns. His 51% striking defense isn't amazing, but he's only shown momentary lapses of a poor chin, but that includes his only fight of 2023. It was a swift knockout loss to Justin Tafa in Perth.
That's the drama and conception behind this fight. If Porter's chin fails him again, Smith can turn out his lights. However, any other outcome should be a dominant, explosive win for Porter, and regional knockout power just doesn't translate to UFC with a direct correlation.
Betting Verdict: I'm not laying Porter's moneyline given the danger ahead of him, but I don't mind a dart at Porter by Submission (+270) behind a hypothesis that Smith is completely unskilled there.
DFS Verdict: I also can't lock Porter into an MVP spot given the odds (greater than 30% in my stuff) that Smith does find his knockout. However, every other outcome favors Parker at an $18 salary that'll be largely ignored due to his perception.
Marina Rodriguez (-132) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+108)
Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | $16 | 5' 6" | 65" | 1.75 | 3.02 |
| Virna Jandiroba | $15 | 5' 3" | 64" | -0.74 | 2.76 |
This is one of the closer fights on the card by the moneyline, and I truly see an argument for both sides.
Marina Rodriguez is an excellent Muay Thai striker (+1.75 SSR) that has often handled everyone in this division there. However, she's a bit older than reputation at 36 because of a late UFC debut, and you've got to wonder if that played a role in a shocking, knockout loss to Amanda Lemos last year.
On the other side,
Virna Jandiroba is a decorated jiu-jitsu practitioner with 13 of her 18 pro wins via submission. Jandiroba's three UFC losses have all come to other grapplers where she's a bit behind in the striking (-0.74 SSR), but she's handled anyone else who wasn't comfortable there.
Rodriguez, with a 65% takedown defense, has done a fine job keeping her feet in most situations. Conversely, Jandiroba (57% striking defense) has kept herself safe and comfortable at a distance to avoid a UFC loss via finish.
This will just come down to who enforces their offense better, and since she's closer to her prime, I'm leaning toward Jandiroba. Rodriguez ceded three takedowns to Cynthia Calvillo, five to Carla Esparza, and nearly a full round of control to Amanda Ribas before -- stunningly -- knocking her out. Jandiroba is a better grappler than all three.
Betting Verdict: I don't feel definitive enough about Jandiroba to bet her +108 moneyline, but slightly favoring her, there is a smidge of value there.
DFS Verdict: Over 2.5 Rounds is -230 here. Rodriguez has never been professionally submitted, and Jandiroba has never been finished. I'd use Jandiroba at $15 in very light doses.
Khaos Williams (-325) vs. Rolando Bedoya (+250)
Welterweight (170 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Khaos Williams | $22 | 6' 0" | 77" | 0.88 | 3.00 |
| Rolando Bedoya | $8 | 5' 11" | 72" | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rolando Bedoya might have the weakest resume to make a debut in 2023, but he's here as a training partner of former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira, who was originally scheduled to be on this card.
Bedoya has gone to a decision in 7 of his 13 pro fights, which is a bad omen entering UFC. He's scuffled with guys not sniffing this opportunity and tasked with dethroning multi-time UFC winner and knockout artist
Khaos Williams.
Williams' profile isn't perfect. His 48% striking defense is low, but he's never been professionally finished. He's been largely untested by way of grappling but did survive there against more accomplished submission artists like Michel Pereira and Randy Brown. They both largely chose to strike with Khaos -- and won doing it.
Still, Williams lands over five significant strikes per minute and has a 1.40% knockdown rate. That's huge power, and he's a mammoth favorite over the newcomer for excellent reason.
Betting Verdict: I'm right in line with Williams' lofty moneyline and the short -120 odds he wins by KO/TKO. I don't see a reason to bet this with all the unknown, though.
DFS Verdict: Williams will be a pivot off of a heavier favorite at MVP, but he's got the multiple-knockdown, first-round finishing upside you'd hope for at a $22 salary.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (-176) vs. Devin Clark (+142)
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
| Fighter | FanDuel
Salary | Height | Reach | Striking
Success
Rate (SSR) | FanDuel
Points Per Minute
(excl. bonuses) |
|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | $17 | 6' 5" | 83" | 0.44 | 3.11 |
| Devin Clark | $14 | 6' 0" | 75" | 0.20 | 2.72 |
Just like last week with Waldo Cortes-Acosta (who lost), there's
sharp money flowing in on
Devin Clark, and I just don't get it.
Clark has been a benign, simple puzzle if he can get his wrestling (2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes) going, and
Kennedy Nzechukwu holds an 80% takedown defense. That's a horrible starting point for him.
On the feet, Kennedy lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy, but that's projected to increase behind an eight-inch reach edge this weekend. Clark's 45% striking defense is also awful, which is why he was finished last June by Azamat Murzakanov.
However, I see another path for Nzechukwu this weekend. Clark's own 59% takedown defense is poor, and Nzechukwu flashed wrestling skills out of nowhere last year in Singapore and has a 55% takedown accuracy overall.
I'd favor him comfortably in both domains.
Betting Verdict: If you're willing to pay the juice, I see Nzechukwu as a -250 favorite despite this -176 moneyline. Clark's career-long battle with jiu-jitsu also makes Nzechukwu by Submission (+1200) an interesting lottery ticket to me.
DFS Verdict: I'll be largely alone, but Clark's poor defense in both domains could result in a coming-out party for Kennedy's offense. He's a top-five MVP candidate for me at $17.
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