UFC 288 expert picks and best bets for Sterling-Cejudo and Muhammad-Burns
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALFormer UFC double-champ Henry Cejudo makes his return to the Octagon this weekend as he takes on reigning bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling in the main event of UFC 288 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
Sterling (22-3), No. 9 on ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, is riding an eight-fight win streak. He beat TJ Dillashaw by second-round knockout in his last fight. Cejudo (16-2), unranked by ESPN, last fought in the UFC in May 2020.
In the co-main event Gilbert Burns is making a quick turnaround after his victory over Jorge Masdvidal at UFC 287. Burns will face Belal Muhammad in the co-main with a title shot on the line for the winner. Burns is ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings while Muhammad is No. 5. Muhammad has not lost a fight since January 2019.
Marc Raimondi spoke to Bang Muay Thai coach Duane Ludwig to get his perspective on the matchups in the main event and co-main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis for the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's bantamweight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
Duane Ludwig, Bang Muay Thai coach (longtime striking coach of TJ Dillashaw)
Tale Of The Tape
| STERLING | CEJUDO | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33.8 | 36.2 |
| Height | 67.0 | 64.0 |
| Reach | 71.0 | 64.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Oct. 22, 2022 | May 9, 2020 |
How Cejudo wins: The champ is going to be the one who can outwrestle the other guy. So, if he can outwrestle Sterling, that'd be nice for him. But also, Aljo does get a little bit wide on some of his strikes. Cejudo has got a sharp eye for detail. I think he can counter him. So, I would give, ironically, the wrestling advantage to Aljo and the striking advantage to Cejudo. But the striking will open up the wrestling and vice versa. Again, Aljo gets a little wide with his guard on attacks. So, if Cejudo could time the entry, press a bit and then intercept, that would be effective. I think his path to victory is to counter off the striking. But he has to force Aljo to make a move. He can't just wait and be reactive. He has to be an active predator.
X-factor: Sterling being on fire, assuming he still has that desire and is injury free since he's been pretty active. Meanwhile, Cejudo has nothing to lose. He can throw caution to the wind. Obviously, not be too reckless, but Aljo has literally everything to lose. I think Aljo has the fire underneath him, though.
Prediction: I've got Sterling stopping Cejudo, let's say in the fourth round. Ground and pound TKO. I think Aljo will go strength for strength with Cejudo and actually outwrestle and outgrapple him. He can really squeeze -- he's strong. I was really impressed with his control on the ground.
Betting analysis
UFC 288: Sterling Vs. Cejudo
| Stand-up striking offense | Sterling | Cejudo |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 0:4 | 5:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| Head jab accuracy | 33% | 22% |
| Head power accuracy | 32% | 29% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 24% | 34% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 34 | 15 |
| Takedown defense | 41% | 93% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 68% | 99% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Kuhn: Lean Sterling to win (-105). I was surprised when Sterling opened as an easy favorite, given that the markets normally underestimate him and he's facing a former double champ. But the market response by backing Cejudo only works in my favor.
Stylistically, it's a contrast everywhere. Sterling's long-range, high-pressure striking attack has stymied short-range boxers like Cejudo. And on the mat, Sterling is the one with more dangerous transitions, scrambles and submissions, despite Cejudo boasting more prestigious wrestling credentials.
Cejudo will have an uphill battle on the feet, and a tall order trying to close the distance and maintain top control for five rounds. Plus, Cejudo's long layoff could be a factor. Now on the wrong side of 35, a lot has changed in his life over three years away from the sport. Meanwhile, Sterling might be at his peak, making us lean toward him as a pick 'em champ (or better).
Parker: Cejudo to win (-115). As we saw in the rematch against Petr Yan, Sterling is extremely dominant when he can take his opponent's back and dictate the fight with his wrestling. However, he hasn't faced someone with the wrestling credentials of Cejudo, and if he fails to get the fight to the mat, I do not see him outstriking Cejudo. Granted, it's been a three-year layoff, but I don't think ring rust will be a problem for Cejudo, and I believe he will shutdown Sterling's wrestling to get the win.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns
Kuhn: Burns to win (-130). We rarely get a five-round non-title fight as a co-main event, but Muhammad and Burns deserve it as a potential title eliminator. Muhammad may have the longer win streak, but Burns has arguably faced elite talent more consistently.On the feet, Muhammad has sharper hands, but it's the power of Burns that will be a finishing threat. Both men have taken their share of knockdowns, but a stylistic mismatch of Muhammad's busier jab against Burns's powerful counter-striking is close, if not favoring Burns with 25 minutes to work.
On the ground, they're two of the best grapplers in a grappling-elite division. The difference is that Muhammad has been in control more frequently, while Burns threatens with more submissions. With Burns being the more dangerous of the two and having 25 minutes to find an opportunity -- it's either Burns inside the distance or Muhammad on the cards -- I'm going with Burns this time.
Parker: Muhammad to win (+100). With both men's strength being the ground game, the wrestling of Muhammad and the jiu-jitsu of Burns should cancel out and we end up seeing a five-round kickboxing fight. If that does happen, I favor the volume and high pace of Muhammad over the power of Burns. Muhammad is a cardio machine and continues to improve his overall game. As long as he can stay off his back, I believe he can push the pace and overwhelm Burns with strikes.
Welterweight: Khaos Williams vs. Rolando Bedoya
Parker: Williams to win (-310). For Bedoya, the UFC newcomer, this is a tough task. Bedoya will need to get the fight to the floor, and to take away the power of Williams. However, Williams has solid takedown defense and great counter-striking. I see Williams being able to fend off the many takedown attempts and keep the fight standing. Williams always puts on a fun fight and I believe he will do it again in this one.
Women's strawweight: Marina Rodriguez vs. Virna Jandiroba
Kuhn: Jandiroba to win (+115). Jandiroba opened as a much bigger underdog, and I agree with her backers who made the line much closer. In terms of statistical performance, Jandiroba has big advantages on the mat, though the standup is more of a wash.Rodriguez won't be one to initiate grappling, so the question is how long her 65 percent takedown defense will last. Jandiroba has proven durable and hard to finish, even in losses. So expect her to have plenty of time to set up takedowns. If and when she gets the fight to the mat, she'll be able to keep it there for extended periods, taking points for the round, or even setting up submissions.
