UFC 286 Usman vs Edwards III.....discussion and info

[MAGAking1]

Here is the entire card

UFC 286 | UFC

Don't Miss A Moment From UFC's Return To London For UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3, Live From The O2 Arena On March 18, 2023

www.ufc.com

Here are current odds

 

[MAGAking1]

some decent writeups and picks

1. UFC 286 is set for this Saturday night in London, England, with a nice, early start time in North America, thanks to the time difference.
   The card will be topped by an anticipated welterweight title fight between champion Leon Edwards and challenger Kamaru Usman, who is a decorated former champ himself. It will be the pair's third meeting in the Octagon. Usman won their first fight by unanimous decision in 2015, and Edwards evened the score with a come-from-behind head-kick knockout last August—easily one of the biggest upsets of 2022.
   While the Edwards and Usman trilogy is dominating most of the pre-fight chatter, that's not all UFC 286 has to offer.
   In the co-main event, No. 3 lightweight contender Justin Gaethje will look to defend his enviable spot in the weight class against surging newcomer and No. 6 contender Rafael Fiziev. It's a fight that is rife with title implications and, more importantly, looks like a guaranteed barnburner on paper.
   Before Gaethje and Fiziev get to work, Gunnar Nelson will meet Bryan Barberena at welterweight, and unbeaten flyweight contender Casey O'Neill will take on former title challenger Jennifer Maia.
   The main card will kick off with an interesting clash of Top 10 middleweight contenders, with Marvin Vettori taking on Roman Dolidze in a fight that the champion Alex Pereira will be watching closely.
   It may not be the most star-studded card we've ever seen, but in terms of potential for excitement, it is a very, very good one.
   Keep scrolling to see how the B/R combat sports squad sees the five bouts on the main card unfolding.

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman III​

1 of 5

1. 
   
   
   
   Leon EdwardsChris Unger/Zuffa LLC
   Tom Taylor: The moment from Edwards and Usman's second fight that has really stuck with me is not Edwards' stunning fifth-round knockout but the fact that the Brit actually out-grappled Usman in the first round.
   Granted, Usman turned the tables on him in Rounds 2, 3 and 4, but Round 1 gave me confidence that Edwards is, at the very least, almost as good as Usman on the mat. And as we know, he can definitely beat the Nigerian American on the feet.
   I suspect Edwards has leveled up even further in the seven months since that fight, whereas Usman could be less durable and, worse, less confident. You can see where I'm going with this.
   As B/R combat sports legend Scott Harris so frequently said, sound the upset alarms—again.
   Edwards by unanimous decision
   

   ---

   Haris Kruskic: After controlling the majority of their previous two fights, I just can't pick against Kamaru Usman here.
   Having rewatched their last encounter, the unrelenting pressure that Usman implements so well completely negated Edwards for most of the fight. It was only when the former champ took his foot off the gas in the fifth round that Edwards opened up with his striking. The rest is history.
   I imagine Usman now understands that he can't grow complacent in this fight. His conditioning and grappling are clearly better. He just has to finish the job.
   Usman by unanimous decision
   

   ---

   Lyle Fitzsimmons: The most recent image any of us have of Usman is when he was knocked loopy by a head kick that set Edwards off on a particularly memorable post-fight celebration.
   But he'd beaten him in a three-rounder before that. And he'd controlled the initial four rounds of the rematch to the point where the broadcast crew was wondering if Edwards had mentally surrendered.
   The home crowd will boost the new champ, but the old champ is simply better.
   Usman by unanimous decision

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev​

2 of 5

1. 
   
   
   
   Justin GaethjeLouis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
   Tom Taylor: I, for one, am tired of watching the UFC's Top 5 lightweights fight each other—as good as most of their fights have been. It's just time for some new blood at the top of the weight class.
   Enter Rafael Fiziev, who, after years spent honing his muay thai in Phuket, is arguably the best striker in the division right now.
   Justin Gaethje's takedowns could make this interesting—he's a great wrestler, even if he tends to forget that fact in his fights—but I think Fiziev has the striking skill and stopping power to upset the status quo in the UFC's new glamour division.
   Fiziev by knockout, Rd. 3.
   

   ---

   Haris Kruskic: I've been going back and forth with this for weeks.
   Everyone is on the Rafael Fiziev bandwagon. I get it. He's a very gifted striker. However, I still have questions regarding his strength of competition up to this point, with then-37-year-old Rafael Dos Anjos being his best win. I also question if he possesses enough power to finish someone as durable as Justin Gaethje. And if he doesn't, can he out-point him before Gaethje does considerable damage?
   Meanwhile, the former lightweight title challenger has fought the division's very best and knows what it takes to beat world-class strikers. It's exactly the kind of fight he thrives in.
   I normally recognize a passing-of-the-torch fight when I see it, but I'm just not there yet with Fiziev.
   Gaethje by TKO, Rd. 3
   

   ---

   Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's not you, it's me. Actually, it's not me, it's him. While I recognize that Gaethje is a tough dude and an exciting fighter, I've never quite understood the reverence he seems to command.
   He's a pedestrian 5-4 in his last nine fights—losing twice by submissions and twice by KOs—and his wins in that stretch have come against guys who've combined to go 3-17 with a no contest since they fought.
   Maybe he ruined them. Or maybe his timing was exquisite.
   We'll find out for sure against a guy who's won six straight. And if I'm wrong, the first round of crow is on me.
   Fiziev by unanimous decision

Watch more top videos, highlights, and B/R original content

Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena​

3 of 5

1. 
   
   
   
   Gunnar Nelson kicks Takashi SatoChris Unger/Zuffa LLC
   Tom Taylor: To me, this one comes down to how much Nelson has left in the tank. He's been in the UFC for ages and long ago proved he can hang with the best. However, he has never been consistent and has been even less active.
   If he is anywhere near his prime, though, he should be able to beat Barberena, who, while durable and powerful, has proven many times that he can be both knocked out and submitted.
   Whether he does it with his karate striking or his jiu-jitsu, Nelson should win. I'll go with the latter.
   Nelson by submission, Rd. 2
   

   ---

   Haris Kruskic:I'm going to take this time to vent about UFC fight order. Why is Raul Rosas Jr. on the main card of UFC 287, and Muhammad Mokaev is buried in the prelims of this event? Instead of elevating another highly-touted prospect with three UFC wins to his name already, we get two veterans with very little draw power or momentum on the main card. The inconsistency is maddening sometimes.
   All right, off my soapbox.
   Bryan Barberena historically struggles against grappling, which Gunnar Nelson is very good at. Nelson struggles against power, which Barberena isn't known for.
   Nelson by unanimous decision
   

   ---

   Lyle Fitzsimmons: Barberena has been working the senior side of the street for his recent fights, defeating a 41-year-old Matt Brown and a 40-year-old Robbie Lawler before crossing into the 30s and losing by neck crank to a relative youngster in the 38-year-old Dos Anjos.
   Nelson hasn't been particularly active while running up just 15 minutes of Octagon time since before the pandemic, but he's a legitimate jiu-jitsu badass, and that spells trouble for a guy who's been finished in three of his last four losses.
   Nelson by submission, Rd. 1

Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O'Neill​

4 of 5

1. 
   
   
   
   Casey O'NeillJosh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
   Tom Taylor: It would be easy to group Casey O'Neill in with the likes of Alexa Grasso, Manon Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield—all members of the new generation at flyweight. However, I don't think she is quite as good as any of those women, most notably because she isn't quite as athletic, which is particularly evident when she's striking.
   Still, I think she should be able to assert herself as a legitimate title contender by out-grappling Jennifer Maia this weekend—even if her undefeated record falls apart soon thereafter.
   O'Neill by unanimous decision
   

   ---

   Haris Kruskic: This is a step up in competition for Casey O'Neill. Jennifer Maia's grappling is always strong, but all of her losses came against top-tier strikers, and I think O'Neill is in that category.
   O'Neill by unanimous decision
   

   ---

   Lyle Fitzsimmons: If it's a question of who's accomplished more and been in higher-profile matches to this point, then Maia is a hands-down winner. But this one's every bit as much about trajectory.
   O'Neill, at 25, seems destined for the things Maia has experienced and seems, too, like she might be able to succeed in some of the situations where her imminent rival has not.
   Unless it's a rust issue or a knee issue, this is a follow-up coming-out party.
   O'Neill by unanimous decision

Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze​

5 of 5

1. 
   
   
   
   Marvin Vettori throws a punch at Robert Whittaker. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
   Tom Taylor: Roman Dolidze is a scary guy. During his fairly short time in the UFC middleweight division, he has proved that he can knock his foes senseless on the feet, pound them into a paste on the ground and submit them if the opportunity presents itself.
   Unfortunately, his next foe is Marvin Vettori, who is extremely well-rounded, has great cardio, and perhaps, most notably in terms of this matchup, is seemingly impossible to finish.
   If Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya, Kevin Holland and a 205-pound Paulo Costa couldn't do it, I doubt Dolidze can either. Vettori makes it ugly and wins a decision.
   Vettori by unanimous decision
   

   ---

   Haris Kruskic: There's a theme on the UFC 286 main card: promising contenders vs. solidified contenders.
   Roman Dolidze is on quite a tear with three straight KO wins, including a victory over Jack Hermansson on short notice last December. Meanwhile, Marvin Vettori is coming off a one-sided loss to Robert Whittaker, where he looked very flat.
   However, Vettori just doesn't get knocked out, and Dolidze struggled in his earliest UFC fights when they went to the later rounds. The Italian Dream is a good wrestler, has great cardio, went to Thailand to improve his striking and will prove to be too well-rounded of a fighter for Dolidze.
   Vettori by unanimous decision
   

   ---

   Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'll admit it. I was all-in on Vettori when he faced Israel Adesanya a couple of years back at UFC 263.
   I read the press clippings. I saw the training footage. I thought he was rough and tumble enough to get Izzy to the ground, keep him there and win himself a middleweight title.
   And then, meh.
   Even though he defeated Paulo Costa four months later, I wasn't ready to turn back to his side. And when he laid another egg against Robert Whittaker last September, I was off the train for good.
   Dolidze pieces him up and wins going away.
   Dolidze by unanimous decision

 

[peanuts]

Leon is a humble guy and I hope he wins or KO Usman again.

 

[MAGAking1]

Leon is a humble guy and I hope he wins or KO Usman again.

I wouldnt mind seeing than, unless of course I decide to bet on Usman.......

 

[peanuts]

I wouldnt mind seeing than, unless of course I decide to bet on Usman.......

It's going to be a tough match, but let's see.

 

[MAGAking1]

Here is the last fight.......

 

[MAGAking1]

Some more picks from a numbers guy......hes been more cold than hot lately though

Two-Leg Parlay​

YTD: 3-5 (-2.90 units)

Our two-legger this year is a cornerstone lesson on unit management.

I regularly fired two-plus units at this last year with much better success, but we just haven't had a lot of cards that set up well for this style of bet. We're in okay shape despite five losses -- including another last week on a -400 leg of all outcomes.

This is the best I've felt about a lay all year, and it comes at plus money. I'm excited about this one.

Joanne Wood and Ludovit Klein to Both Win
(+141; 1.45 Units)​

The core of this wager structure is to support a couple of modest favorites at near-even money, but this plus juice is a gift.

I couldn't feel better about the matchups and profiles for Joanne Wood (-188) and Ludovit Klein (-174) in their early prelim matches.

Wood's setbacks have primarily been due to grappling. In fact, five of her eight UFC losses have come via submission. It's immediately noteworthy that her opponent this week, Luana Carolina, has 0 career UFC takedowns or submission attempts. As a striker, Wood lands more significant strikes per minute (6.76) on equal 50% accuracy to Carolina. Her 52% striking defense also trumps Carolina's (47%).

She's also fought seven fighters currently ranked by UFC to Carolina's zero. Given she's actually the better grappler, I've got this line closer to -375.

As for Klein, he'll have to dodge the power of Jai Herbert, but that appears to be his lone path to failure. Herbert has also never landed a UFC takedown or submission attempt, but unlike Carolina, he's just a poor striker overall. His 41% striking accuracy lags well behind Klein's (56%), and Klein's 48% striking defense also surpasses that of Jai (42%).

Herbert's 2.72% knockdown rate is very much a concern, but he also lands a very low percentage of the time. I really can't ask for much more than the more efficient strikers -- with grappling advantages -- that have faced better competition.

Straight Bets​

Gunnar Nelson by KO/TKO/Submission (-120; 1.0 Units)​

We're going to find out on Saturday whether Gunnar Nelson (-430) is totally shot or not. Obviously, with this bet, I'm going with the latter.

Nelson took the current 170-pound champion to a split decision in London back in 2019, but since, he's lost a huge chunk of his late prime to a bad rib injury. Nelson finally returned in March 2022 back at the O2 Arena, but his unanimous decision win over Takashi Sato wasn't the explosive re-emergence that was expected from the -800 favorite.

In his prime, this is a fight Nelson would finish quickly. Bryan "Bam Bam" Barbarena has always been willing to stand and bang, but his grappling stinks. His 55% takedown defense is poor, surrendering a total of 26 takedowns in his last six fights. He was submitted in his last fight for the first time in his UFC career by undersized lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos, so it's only getting worse.

Nelson should dominate this fight on the mat. His 60% takedown accuracy, considering his two fights before this were Leon Edwards (+196) and Gilbert Burns, is tremendous, and he's added 0.90 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Without the jitters and back in a normal camp routine, expect Nelson to be more confident and aggressive hunting this finish.

Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards Don't Go The Distance
(+124; 0.85 Units)​

The elevation in Utah didn't change the outcome of the second fight between Kamaru Usman (-260) and Leon Edwards. A loss of focus did.

Usman dominated the fight with a +28 striking differential and a +4 takedown differential, adding over 10 minutes of control time along the way. He was coasting into the final round when a lazy stance switch in range led to the opening of a lifetime for "Rocky" Edwards.

Leon's performance in that fight didn't provide me hope he wins this rematch; the wrestling gap was enormous. I just think it squashed the value of Usman's betting line when Kamaru was equally poor defensively. Edwards landed 72% of his significant strikes, and Usman posted 61%. Defense wins titles, fellas.

The former champion didn't really show much of a sense of urgency when he had Edwards in disadvantageous positions last year. I don't believe he considered him dangerous. Obviously, now knowing the danger, expect a very different temperament.

Usman's inside-the-distance odds are +250, but I don't mind this plus-money hedge considering Edwards was also landing a vast majority of his shots. Leon's volume remains poor (2.59 significant strikes landed per minute), so a finish is likely his only path to win, too.

This bet perfectly encapsulates both outcomes, and it's undoubtedly what both will aim for to close this trilogy.

Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO or Decision (+195; 0.95 Units)​

I don't understand the Rafael Fiziev love at all this week.

In other dimensions, Fiziev is allegedly a technical wizard that many have pegged as a potential lightweight title challenger. In my analytical world, I see a guy with a -0.05 striking success rate (SSR) that's got plus striking accuracy (50%), average striking defense (50%), and no wrestling or grappling to speak of.

He had a +10 striking differential against the aforementioned Dos Anjos, a +7 one to Brad Riddell, and a -39 striking differential against the unranked Bobby Green. He's yet to put on a dominant showing entering -- by far -- his toughest test yet.

Justin Gaethje (+186) won't win an award for his -0.39 SSR, either. However, Gaethje's issues have come in grappling-heavy losses to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. As a striker, Gaethje lands more significant strikes per minute (7.46) with higher accuracy (60%) and better defense (55%) than Fiziev.

Plus, he's fought tougher guys, holding a +13 striking differential on Michael Chandler and a +7 differential on Tony Ferguson that don't tell the full story of the damage.

These longer odds add a tiny bit of juice by taking out a submission that would be Gaethje's first attempt in 11 fights. I like him to win this weekend via violence.

Dart Throw of the Week​

Roman Dolidze by Submission (+750; 0.25 Units)​

I think I've finally made sense of Roman Dolidze (+220) flying up the middleweight rankings.

On short notice, Dolidze upset Jack Hermansson in Orlando late last year. It was his sixth win in seven tries, and the only exception was universally regarded as a narrow decision against Trevin Giles. How does he keep doing it? He's an excellent grappler, and this division can't grapple.

11 of the 15 ranked middleweights average less than one submission attempt per 15 minutes. At 2.1 submission attempts per 15, Dolidze is a massive outlier. I made this mistake with Andre Muniz three weeks ago. He had a few submissions climbing the ranks at 185, so I assumed he was skilled, but Muniz was flattened by a higher-volume grappler in Brendan Allen (1.6 per 15).

There's a difference between competent and confident. Marvin Vettori, the favorite over Dolidze this weekend, is competent. He's got two unranked wins via submission in UFC and averages 0.6 attempts per 15 minutes. Dolidze is confident.

Therefore, I don't actually know if Vettori is a solid grappler. We assume so based on his results thus far, but Dolidze is the first high-volume, high-skill guy that he's faced averaging north of a submission attempt per 15 minutes.

This is a small flier that middleweight remains incredibly unreliable in this department.

 

[MAGAking1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635370148558172161

 

[MAGAking1]

Some short write ups and ideas

UFC 286 Odds For The Under Card:​

Jack Shore (-500) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+400)​

Honestly, not opposed to sticking Shore in a parlay if you need that little bit extra. Great wrestling and great cardio are the exact tools needed to ruin Amirkhani’s day, as we saw in “Mr. Finland’s” loss to Jonathan Pearce last time out. Though the weight is a concern — as this is Shore’s UFC debut at 145 pounds — everything else is so tilted in his favor that he merits a look regardless.

Omar Morales (-120) vs. Chris Duncan (EVEN)​

Too close to call. Duncan probably has a slight edge in power, but he’s so defensively lax that it’s hard to justify betting on him.

Sam Patterson (-265) vs. Yanal Ashmoz (+225)​

Patterson strikes me as a reasonably safe investment. Though he’s got his fair share of flaws, his huge height and reach advantages should let him control things on the feet, while his guillotine is waiting should Ashmoz get too eager to force his way inside and initiate the grappling.

Lerone Murphy (-165) vs. Gabriel Santos (+140)​

Murphy should have the edge on the feet, but he’s been out for awhile and Santos has an attrition-heavy style that could wreak havoc if “The Miracle’s” got any lingering rust.

Muhammad Mokaev (-800) vs. Jafel Filho (+575)​

Too wide to be worth an investment, especially since Filho is a very adept Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist.

Christian Leroy Duncan (-205) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+175)​

I’d recommend a bet on Duncan, though with some reservations. He’s shown some vulnerability to grinding styles in the past that makes a huge bet ill-advised, but at the same time, Todorovic’s struggles with Jordan Wright and other strong athletes suggest that Duncan can blow him away without getting sucked into a slog.

Jake Hadley (-380) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+310)​

Steer clear! Gordon’s flipped the script before and Hadley leaves enough openings that an out-of-nowhere reversal from “X” isn’t out of the question.

Joanne Wood (-190) vs. Luana Carolina (+160)​

For as badly as Wood has struggled of late, it’s worth keeping in mind that she’s fought the likes of Taila Santos and Alexa Grasso, who are on a whole other level than Carolina. “Dread” lacks the pressure and wrestling skills that have bedeviled Wood in the past, preferring to play a rangy striking game that plays into Wood’s hands. The takedowns Carolina surrendered to Molly McCann also suggest that Wood can take it to the ground as needed, making her a worthwhile investment.

Ludovit Klein (-190) vs. Jai Herbert (+160)​

Klein opened at around -160, and while I’m frustrated that it didn’t last, he’s still a steal. His bugbears are pressure and wrestling, neither of which Herbert brings to the table. In a pure kickboxing battle, Klein’s edges in technique and power are far more significant than Herbert’s height and reach. Bank on “Mr. Highlight.”

Juliana Miller (-435) vs. Veronica Hardy (+350)​

Hardy’s been out for a long time, so caution seems warranted.


Related

Expensive UFC 286 Tickets Rank Second Highest In Sports​

Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

UFC 286 Odds For PPV Main Card:​

Kamaru Usman (-245) vs. Leon Edwards (+205)​

I’ve been trying to figure out the best way to word this, so here goes: Edwards will have a lot more trouble engineering the scenario that won him the first fight than Usman will have in avoiding it. I’m not saying it was a fluke or lucky or anything like that — Edwards capitalized magnificently on an opportunity. However, I just don’t see him creating that opportunity a second time.

Rafael Fiziev (-230) vs. Justin Gaethje (+195)​

Before Fiziev’s fight with Rafael dos Anjos, I’d have leaned toward Gaethje. Now — despite being a diehard “Highlight” fan since his World Series of Fighting (WSOF) days — I’ve got “Ataman.” The speed difference, combined with Fiziev’s increasingly potent ability to deal with pressure, figures to be decisive.

Gunnar Nelson (-435) vs. Bryan Barberena (+350)​

Nelson is a world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist and Barberena still can’t wrestle. Looks like a bargain from here.

Casey O’Neill (-165) vs. Jennifer Maia (+140)​

Too evenly matched. Maia’s the more destructive striker, O’Neill the more potent grappler, and I wouldn’t touch a matchup this volatile at these odds.

Marvin Vettori (-295) vs. Roman Dolidze (+245)​

I’ve sworn off betting on Dolidze fights — the guy never runs out of rabbits to pull out of his hat.


Related

 

[MAGAking1]

Solid early prelims so far

 

[MAGAking1]

What a brutal KO by Yanal Ashmouz......Patterson was in another galaxy for well after the fight was over

 

[ERockMoney]

What a brutal KO by Yanal Ashmouz......Patterson was in another galaxy for well after the fight was over

He looked like he was trying to fight the ref several minutes later, what a KO

 

[MAGAking1]

He looked like he was trying to fight the ref several minutes later, what a KO

Amazing that Mokaev didnt tap .....gonna keep an eye on him to see if his knee is bad or really bad....

 

[MAGAking1]

The judge who scored it 30-27 for Morales needs to be supsended and investigated

 

[MAGAking1]

Main Card fixing to start up........

 

[MAGAking1]

What a great fight.....Gaethje still GOT IT!!!!!!

 

[exploited17]

Usman after he lost referring to Edwards
"Just like me ya know he is a brother like myself"
lol
Nows ask yourself what is the point of even saying that?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Usman after he lost referring to Edwards
"Just like me ya know he is a brother like myself"
lol
Nows ask yourself what is the point of even saying that?

Usman never been the best with words but I give him credit for taking his L like a man.

I thought he lost but there was a lot in that fight he could've bitched about. The glove grabbing and not being given position, the fence grabbing, the low kicks. Even the decision was a close 1 and a lot of guys wouldn't be so gracious.

 

[exploited17]

Usman never been the best with words but I give him credit for taking his L like a man.

I thought he lost but there was a lot in that fight he could've bitched about. The glove grabbing and not being given position, the fence grabbing, the low kicks. Even the decision was a close 1 and a lot of guys wouldn't be so gracious.

True
He took both pretty good
Time for Chimaev or Rakhmonov
None of this Colby stuff
He needs to earn his way back
New blood time

 

[PatsFan1283]

At one point he looked at Edwards like dude cmon what the fuck lol

I think what Edwards is waiting is to see if Masvidal can beat Burns, he probably won't but if he does I'm sure they will do that as a title fight given the history. If that doesn't happen, I can see Colby getting it. Once Edwards sits down with his people, they're gonna tell him you get PPV pts now and Colby/Masvidal are big names. You don't wanna be fighting these young horses that nobody really knows. Rakhmonov or Muhammed just haven't really done enough to earn a title shot.

Chimaev who knows, he can't make the weight consistently probably and Dana said he doesn't expect him back until October. So I'd cross him off, think he might just move to MW.

But given $/draw, Edwards might be fine with Colby once he scans his options. You get in that top spot and fially get PPV pts and you aren't trying to find killers that no one knows.