UFC 205 - Betting Info / Predictions / Breakdowns

[NewYorkKnight]

Jim Miller (27-8)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’8″ Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 75.5″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Joe Lauzon (8-27-16)
•Camp: Miller Bros MMA (New Jersey)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 4 KO victories
+ 14 Submission wins
+ 10 first round finishes
+ Aggressive pace & pressure
+ Accurate L. hand R. hook
+ Dangerous short elbows
+ Solid leg/inside leg kicks
+ Underrated takedowns
+ Deadly submissions in transit
+/-Willingness to fight from bottom
^ Active & attacking guard
– Gas tank bares watching
+/-3-4 in last 7 fights



Thiago Alves (21-10)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / Carlos Condit (5-30-16)
•Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Muay Thai Accolades
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 13 KO victories
+ 1 Submission win
+ 6 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Technical Muay Thai arsenal
^ Devastating knees & leg kicks
+/- Comfortable in the clinch & pocket
^ Traditionally takes damage
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Improved wrestling
^ Underrated takedown ability
+/-1 fight in 22 months
+/-3-1 against UFC southpaws



Summary:

Headlining the UFC Fight Pass portion of UFC 205 is a fantastic fight as Jim Miller welcomes Thiago Alves to the lightweight division. As one of the most exciting and experienced fighters in the organization, it is only right that Jersey’s own Jim Miller gets to fight at Madison Square Garden. However, Miller has no easy task as he draws a dangerous veteran in Thiago Alves. A longtime welterweight warrior in the UFC’s ranks, Alves has decided to drop some muscle as he looks to compete in a division more suitable for his frame.

Considering that both men have struggled with health issues during the past few years, their physical states will likely be the intangibles of this fight. That said, their mental status and fighting spirit is without question, as these two always come to put on a show. When first hearing of this matchup, my initial thoughts were with the oddsmakers as I favored Alves stylistically. However, upon closer review, I see a surprising amount of pathways that Miller may exploit as I feel he is a live dog. Although Alves has the on-paper advantage in striking due to his superior firepower and technique, I do not feel that Jim will be far behind in that department.

A southpaw with a Muay Thai arsenal of his own, Miller favors the striking tools that have traditionally troubled Thiago. Whether you look his rematch with Derrick Noble at UFC 59 or his battle with Papy Abedi at UFC 138, Alves has had a susceptibility to left hands from southpaws. Even against his last two opponents, we saw Thiago tagged by left crosses and elbows repeatedly. In fact, I feel that Alves has shown a trend to be more hittable in recent years due to his comfortability inside the pocket. Although being comfortable in-range is not a bad thing, Thiago tends to rely on a shell defense which could play directly into Miller’s offense.

Whether he is throwing uppercuts, body shots, or crosses down the center, Miller thrives when his opponents shell up on him. In both of his battles with Joe Lauzon, we saw Jim abuse the inside angle to land counter lefts and upward elbows anytime Joe shelled-up. Given the success of Thiago’s most recent opponents with elbows, I would not be surprised to see Miller start slicing like he is Bill the Butcher from Gangs of New York. Jim’s body kick will also be worth watching for as we have seen drastic weight cuts diminish a fighters ability to absorb those types of blows.

Despite the intangibles of Thiago’s first cut to lightweight, Miller will be the fighter who has the suspect gas tank. Although a lot of his recent poor performances can be attributed to his previously undiagnosed condition, Miller has shown a propensity to fade before. That said, those performances came against opponents who were intent on using their size to ground out Jim on the floor. Given that the ground is Miller’s most potent path to victory, I doubt that Thiago will employ that gameplan here. Even though Alves’ grappling ability is underrated(and likely improved), he may be in for a rude awakening should this fight hit the floor.

Although size advantages count for a lot in MMA, there are overlooked disadvantages that size discrepancies can also bring about. Smaller opponents, for example, are often faster on the feet as I suspect Jim will present a slight speed advantage. On the floor, dealing with the smaller man can also be difficult as they tend to scramble more, which can ultimately make the bigger man work harder to establish control. Despite Miller’s submission thirst often getting him into trouble, I believe that this is the type of fight where Jim’s desperate attempts will not necessarily hurt him.

Ultimately, I feel this fight is a tricky one to call as I am suggesting avoidance in regards to plays. Even though Alves has the power to put away Miller, I see Jersey’s own capitalizing inside the chaos to score the upset.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Miller – Inside the distance

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Liz Carmouche (10-5)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 66″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Lauren Murphy (4-4-15)
•Camp: Team Hurricane Awesome (San Diego, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Purple Belt BJJ
+ 6 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 2 first round finishes
+ Improved striking
^ Accurate shot selection
+/-Favors countering
^ Lacks volume
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Favors attempts off fence
+ Physically strong in clinch
+ Excellent top game
^ Strikes & transitions well
– 1 fight in 2 years



Katlyn Chookagian (8-0)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 27 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 66″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Lauren Murphy (7-13-16)
•Camp: Team Renzo Gracie (New Jersey)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ Boxing & Karate background
+ Experienced in Amateur ranks
+ 2 KO victories
+ 1 Submission wins
+ 2 first round finishes
+ Good footwork & movement
+ High-volume striker
^ Puts together punches well
+ Dangerous knees
+ Competent takedown defenses
^ Solid fundamentals in the clinch
+/-Willingness to fight from back
^ Sneaky triangle-armbar setups



Summary:

Kicking off UFC 205 is a female fight in the bantamweight division as Liz Carmouche faces Katlyn Chookagian. The first fighter to challenge Ronda Rousey for UFC gold, Liz Carmouche will once again be a part of history as she opens up this card. Looking to steal the spotlight is Katlyn Chookagian, an undefeated fighter who is on the rise.

As the accolades would suggest, Chookagian should have an advantage over Carmouche in the striking department. Not only does Katlyn carry Golden Glove credentials, but she has also spent her career training in New Jersey with Mark Henry & company. Employing excellent footwork and movement, Chookagian displays the high-volume approach you would expect coming from that camp. Often punctuating her combinations with jabs, Katlyn has a knack for frustrating her opposition as she keeps counters at the ready.

With this in mind, Carmouche will have to be extra vigilant in her pursuit if she means to catch or contend with Chookagian. However, Liz traditionally tends to sit back and counter, as I see that potentially costing her rounds. Sometimes complacent with her developing a striking game, we have seen Liz experiment with stances throughout her UFC tenor. Since Carmouche has fought only once in the past 30-months, it will be interesting to see what improvements have been made to her game.

I believe that Liz’s best shot at winning will come on the floor. Possessing a solid takedown ability, Carmouche possesses a decent reactive-shot but makes most of her attempts against the fence. Defending well from the cage, Chookagian demonstrates good defensive fundamentals as she also will unleash dangerous knees in close. That said, Katlyn could give away rounds should she allow Liz to ground her. Despite displaying some nice triangle-armbar setups, Chookagian still shows to be a bit too content to fight from her back.

Although I usually avoid playing most female fights, I feel pretty good about my read on this one as Chookagian earns a spot as a recommended parlay piece. I like seeing fighters who grew up with a background in martial arts and spent the proper amount of time in the amateur ranks, as Katlyn looks to have a lot of promise. Despite Carmouche’s heart and toughness keeping her alive in fights, I ultimately feel that the volume of Chookagian will secure her the scorecards in a decision win.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Chookagian – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Mixed Martial Analyst




Recommended Plays:

Draft Kings recommended rosters:


Team #1: $49,800.00

-Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($9,300.00)
-Frankie Edgar ($9,200.00)
-Stephen Thompson ($8,800.00)
-Yoel Romero ($7,700.00)
-Eddie Alvarez ($7,600.00)
-Michael Johnson ($7,200.00)


Team Summary:

With so many selections for your UFC 205 rosters, I elected to stick to my guns in regards to my analysis above. For my high-tier favorites, I elected to go with Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Stephen Thompson, and Frankie Edgar. As the biggest betting favorite on the card, Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a solid choice given that she is a participant in a 5-round affair. Even if Joanna cannot secure a finish, she is a consistent scorer as she carries 3rd highest point average on the card.

Next, I went with Stephen Thompson as he is also the favored fighter in a 5-round affair. Not only do I feel good about him taking this fight, but he will likely do so in an exciting fashion as he is this card’s 4th highest earner. Lastly, I went with Frankie Edgar as I feel is a solid pick if you’re looking for a winning party. Although Stephens is difficult to finish as a live dog, I feel this is a stylistically favorable fight for Frankie as I believe he is worth the asking price.

For my lower tier dog picks, I decided to go with Yoel Romero, Eddie Alvarez, and Michael Johnson. As one of the liveliest dogs on the card, Yoel Romero can finish from the first round to the last. Against a fighter like Weidman who doesn’t mind playing with fire, Romero could potentially payout big should he score an upset. I also stuck with my dog pick of Eddie Alvarez, despite how dangerous his Irish foe has shown to be. Even though McGregor is the one more likely to score a first round finish, I feel that Eddie has more paths to victory as I favor him in the main event.

Finally, I elected to go with Michael Johnson as I officially sided with him to score the big upset. Despite the renown grappling skills of Nurmagomedov, the Dagestani shows little defensive improvements to his aggressive striking entries. Should Khabib get reckless in trying to catch the consistently moving Johnson, we could see Michael counter Nurmagomedov with great effect. Considering that very few fantasy players will be on this pick, I feel that Johnson could potentially payout big and put you ahead in the standings. Given the extra mile I went for my analysis on this card, I decided to keep this section short as I encourage you to read the breakdowns above. Thanks for the love, and good luck with your fantasy picks!




Props worth looking at

-Jedrzejczyk by Decision: -118 (1 Unit)
-Thompson by TKO/KO: +160 (1 Unit)
-Chookagian by Decision: +135 (1 Unit)



Playable favorites for your parlays:

-Joanna Jedrzejczyk
-Frankie Edgar
-Katlyn Chookagian



Fights to avoid:

-Kelvin Gastelum vs Donald Cerrone
-Jim Miller vs Thiago Alves
-Vincente Luque vs Belal Muhammad

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 205 Cheat Sheet: Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson




Woodley: 16-3 record (6-2 UFC); five of 10 previous champions have defended welterweight title at least once

Woodley: 68 percent significant strike defense, best among active UFC welterweights

Thompson: 13-1 record (8-1 UFC); seven-fight win streak

Thompson: 4.7 strikes landed per minute, sixth-highest among active UFC welterweights



Breakdown

There was a time not that long ago that Woodley's collegiate wrestling background would've been the X factor in this matchup. Today, however, that is no longer the case.

It's not that Woodley's wrestling can't (or won't) have an impact on this title fight, but it might better serve as a plan B. Thompson has not surrendered a takedown since 2012, which was also the last (and only) time he suffered a loss.

Thompson's size and style creates so much real estate between himself and an opponent. It's reasonable to think an experienced wrestler, who is used to that explosive first step -- that shot, if you will -- would have as good a chance as anyone to close through it. Woodley is as fast as they come, and that closing speed applies to his right hand as much as, if not more than, his double leg. Then again, the same could have been said about Hendricks when he fought Thompson -- and he was run out of the building.



Prediction: Thompson by third-round TKO

 

[NewYorkKnight]

205 Predictions
from CBS Sports



The team: Bill Reiter (national columnist), Lyle Fitzsimmons (writer), Robby Kalland (writer), Matthew Coca (producer) and Brandon Wise (editor)



Reiter

McGregor
Jedrzejczyk
Thompson
Cerrone
Weidman
Tate


Fitzsimmons

McGregor
Jedrzejczyk
Woodley
Cerrone
Romero
Tate


Kalland

McGregor
Jedrzejczyk
Woodley
Cerrone
Weidman
Tate


Coca

McGregor
Jedrzejczyk
Woodley
Cerrone
Weidman
Tate


Wise

Alvarez
Jedrzejczyk
Woodley
Gastelum
Romero
Pennington



Fitzsimmons on why McGregor wins: Predicting Conor McGregor fights is all about perception. Some believe he's every bit the phenomenon he claims to be, while others suggest he's a front-runner who's been fed a series of beatable foes. I was on the fence before his most recent defeat of Diaz, in which, to me anyway, he showed a level of courage and fortitude I wasn't sure he possessed. Against Alvarez, I believe he's simply able to do more things and will overwhelm the champion with a combination of speed, athleticism and power.


Wise on why Alvarez wins: Call it whatever you want, but McGregor has not faced an opponent as dangerous as Alvarez yet. His last few foes do not possess the one-shot knockout power that the Philly-native does. While I think McGregor is the best thing to happen to the sport since Anderson Silva's reign of terror, I don't think he's well-rounded enough to last in this fight. If Alvarez is able to utilize his pinpoint wrestling skill, this might be over rather quickly.


Reiter on why Thompson beats Woodley: Thompson will own the space in the octagon, dominate his opponent with karate skills and counter-punching, all while solidifying himself at the top of the sport. Thompson is riding a seven-fight winning streak and is considered the favorite for a reason.


Kalland on why Woodley beats Thompson: Woodley looked very comfortable in his title fight with Robbie Lawler and was very patient looking for an opening to shoot that incredibly powerful right hand. He's aggressive, but smart about when to use his speed and power to strike and I think eventually he'll catch Wonderboy pressing and in a vulnerable spot to earn an early finish.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Bloody Elbow collected UFC 205 main event predictions from the top media members of the MMA community.




Iain Kidd – Bloody Elbow

I'm taking Conor McGregor in this fight. Alvarez is a dangerous opponent, but part of that comes from his willingness to get wild, bite down on his mouthpiece and throwdown. That's a dangerous approach to take against McGregor. Conor has the timing and precision to make guys pay for doing that.

Eddie's wrestling could be a problem for Conor, and his gas tank is probably better, especially if there are grappling heavy exchanges, but Conor has this ability to convince guys to stand with him, whether that's by keeping his distance or getting into someone's head, and I don't think Eddie will be the exception.

Both guys have a couple of paths to victory here - Conor definitely has the power to knock Alvarez out, and after seeing the RDA fight it's pretty apparent Eddie has to power to drop McGregor as well.

While most people will favor Alavrez in a decision, I think it's notable that not only did Conor take a decision over Nate Diaz, he actually had Diaz almost as tired as himself by the end. Conor's striking really takes it out of guys, and if this stays on the feet, I think Conor gets the decision. If there's any substantial time on the ground, though, that equation changes and Alvarez takes the decision.

I don't see this one ending in a submission. Conor has 1 sub victory on record, and while Alvarez went through a period of choking guys out in 2009, it's not his bread and butter. Conor has shown some really good work from his back with sweeps and reversals, and his work with Dillon Danis will have reinforced that. All of that in mind, I don't see either guy getting a submission, unless it's on a guy rocked by strikes.

All of that has been a really long way of saying that both guys have multiple ways to win this one, but I think Conor's edge in the stand-up probably gives him the win here.



Zane Simon – Bloody Elbow

I'm of two minds about McGregor vs. Alvarez, most particularly because I know that Alvarez does a ton of opponent specific preparation and has for a long time and I know that McGregor only just started doing that for his last fight against Nate Diaz. If it were a pure skill vs. skill matchup, I've gotta give the edge to McGregor.

He doesn't get backed up nearly as easy as Pettis and even in that fight there was a lot of argument that Eddie lost it just for how badly he got tagged up when the fight was out at range. If McGregor maintains range better than Pettis and pressures better than Pettis, he absolutely has the power, accuracy, and ability to hurt him bad and probably even finish him.

But, I know Eddie will come prepared specifically for McGregor and with his best game. Eventually, I think I've got to depend on McGregor's ability to hurt his opponent at any moment more than I depend on Eddie's ability to not get hurt for 5 rounds. Of course, Eddie's been hurt before, and rallied back to win, but I just hate betting on skills like that.



Shaheen Al-Shatti – MMA Fighting

Full disclosure: I picked Mendes/Aldo/McGregor/Diaz, so go ahead and bet against whatever I say in this next sentence and win yourself some good money. But on Saturday night, inside the hallowed halls of Madison Square Garden, the words shall beat a deafening drum -- "and new" -- and the ensuing chaos as one man controls the fate of two simultaneous divisions will be a spectacle to unfold like no other seen before.



Jonathan Snowden – Bleacher Report

Underestimate Conor McGregor at your own risk. Polar Bear? Sentient robot? Tupac hologram? I've got McGregor over all of them. Conor, KO, Round 2.



Karyn Bryant – FOX Sports

I'm picking Conor, but not because Eddie isn't capable. The LW Champ could DEFINITELY win a 5-round battle; but I'm betting on Conor's speed, left hand + will to win.



Marc Raimondi – MMA Fighting

I’m taking Eddie Alvarez, though I’ve been dead wrong about the results of Conor McGregor’s last four fights. So take my pick with a grain of salt. It could obviously go either way — McGregor could win by KO in a minute. But I feel like Alvarez has more ways to win and is one of the toughest, grittiest fighters to ever do it.



Sean Sheehan – Severe MMA

I think this fight boils down to two things. The clinch of Alvarez and McGregor's ability to cut off the cage. If Alvarez can engage the clinch and keep doing it, he has a great chance of winning. But, the problem is, he'll have to be absolutely perfect.

If McGregor gets even a sniff of an opening he has the power and control to make it count. Alvarez is a very good counter puncher but McGregor's pressure striking is a very tough thing to deal with. Personally, I see Alvarez getting some joy very early but then McGregor will get on the front foot and get the finish in the first half of the fight.



Mike Bohn – MMA Junkie

I'm going with McGregor. It's been a while since we say him fight in the lightweight division but I think his frame and power are perfect for the division. Alvarez will try to pressure his back to the fence and close the distance to clinch and work takedowns, but I think McGregor survives the initial onslaught and lands a KO shot in the second or third round.



Eric Jackman – MMA Fighting

I've got Alvarez in this one.

McGregor is dangerous in ways that Alvarez is susceptible, so a quick finish by McGregor would not shock me in any way.

But every time I visualize this fight, the most likely/repeated outcome has Alvarez closing the distance, getting McGregor against the case, taking him down, and punishing him on the mat.

Taking Alvarez by TKO in the middle rounds, but I don't see it going the distance no matter the outcome.



Peter Carroll – Irish Mirror

Out of all of the fighters in the lightweight title conversation, Alvarez is the best matchup for McGregor. Both guys eat a lot of punches, but I think McGregor's stopping power is far superior. Conor by TKO in Round 3.



Chamatkar Sandhu – MMA Junkie

McGregor. I think with him fighting at 155lbs you're going to see the best version of him yet. I tend to lean toward the the taller, rangier southpaw vs a shorter stockier Alvarez. Also McGregor has big fight / big fight experience and don't think the moment of the MSG debut will phase him. Remains to be seen if Alvarez is able to remain cool, calm and collected in this environment with what will no doubt be another Irish takeover of a crowd.



Damon Martin – FOX Sports

Completely torn on this pick but I'm going with Conor McGregor based on his accuracy and power. Alvarez could absolutely maul him just as easily but he takes a lot of damage in his fights and that's what I'm betting McGregor will feast on.



Patrick Wyman – Bleacher Report

Alvarez has a couple of different paths to victory, both with wrestling against the fence or sticking and moving while lacing the aggressive McGregor with counterpunches, but the big issue with both approaches is the combination of McGregor's power and Alvarez's tendency to get hit really, really hard. McGregor lands a knockout shot in the second round.



Frontrow Brian – Flo Combat

Eddie. I think he's got a better gas tank, more KO power and has the wrestling advantage. Eddie controls where the fight takes place, avoids big strikes from Conor and finishes him via strikes late in the fight.



Jim Genia – Caged Insider

Eddie. Alvarez may lack McGregor's explosiveness, but he's resilient and has power for days. Eddie is going wear him down and pound him out.



James Lynch – MMA Oddsbreaker

Alvarez. This is the toughest fight to pick on the card but Alvarez is extremely difficult to knock out. I see him surviving the early rounds, using his wrestling to control McGregor's onslaught and sink in a late submission to retain the title.



TJ De Santis - Sherdog

I rarely bring emotions into analysis. However, the hardcore MMA fan inside of me has a heart for Eddie Alvarez. He once told Jeff Sherwood and I that he has nightmares that he wakes up and has to go back to construction. Win or lose, I hope this payday puts that hardhat firmly in the trash.

With that said, Alvarez tends to get hit. Shinya Aoki even tagged him in their Bellator rematch. Over the course of 25 minutes Conor McGregor will tag him. Can Eddie walk through it? Once he eats it will he continue to fight smart or will he get emotional? These questions cloud the lightweight champion's path to victory. While it's not a foregone conclusion I think the safer pick is Conor. Volume, angles, and efficiency should pay dividends.



Adam Hunter – MMA Roasted

I'm picking Eddie Alvarez. I think he's too experienced, too good of a wrestler and will distract Conor with his boxing and eyebrows.



Shawn S. – Combat Docket

I am a sucker for a risky wrestle-boxer, and a big fan of the Underground King. But in this instance I believe that Conor's reach, early rounds foot-speed, overall fight IQ, and ample skill-set will give him a significant edge. I'm hoping otherwise, but: McGregor, T/KO in the 2nd.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[Stickee]

Great writeups and info knight! Thanks man

 

[NewYorkKnight]

No problem ... Enjoy the fights

 

[NewYorkKnight]

MMAjunkie readers’ consensus picks 2016: 108-64 (63%)	McGregor (60%)	Thompson (71%)	Jedrzejczyk (86%)	Weidman (67%)	Tate (86%)
Ben Fowlkes @BenFowlkesMMA 2016: 110-62 (64%)	McGregor	Thompson	Jedrzejczyk	Romero	Tate
Matt Erickson @MMAjunkieMatt 2016: 107-65 (62%)	McGregor	Thompson	Jedrzejczyk	Weidman	Tate
Steven Marrocco @MMAjunkieSteven 2016: 107-65 (62%)	McGregor	Thompson	Jedrzejczyk	Weidman	Tate
Mike Bohn @MikeBohnMMA 2016: 106-66 (62%) 2014 Champion	McGregor	Thompson	Kowalkiewicz	Weidman	Tate
John Morgan @MMAjunkieJohn 2016: 106-66 (62%)	McGregor	Woodley	Jedrzejczyk	Weidman	Tate
Brent Brookhouse @BrentBrookhouse 2016: 106-66 (62%)	Alvarez	Thompson	Jedrzejczyk	Weidman	Tate
Dann Stupp @DannStupp 2016: 106-66 (62%) 2015 Champion	McGregor	Woodley	Jedrzejczyk	Weidman	Tate
Brian Garcia @thegoze 2016: 103-69 (60%)	Alvarez	Woodley	Jedrzejczyk	Weidman	Tate
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 2016: 96-76 (55.8%)	McGregor	Woodley	Jedrzejczyk	Weidman	Tate
Fernanda Prates @nandaprates_ 2016: 59-47 (55.7%)	McGregor	Thompson	Jedrzejczyk	Weidman	Tate

 

[NewYorkKnight]