UEFA Champions League - August 29 & 30, 2012

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When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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August 29th, 2012
2:45pm ET

Anderlecht vs. AEL Limassol
(1-2)

AEL Limassol lead on aggregate 2-1
(Winning at home in the 1st match)

AEL played ROUGH Physical Soccer in their first leg match at home. They pressured their opponent and ran constantly; looking tireless. Not only are they physical, but they are especially tough around their own penalty area. Defensively they are solid and it will be their strength in this match. In fact, in their previous round they beat Partizan Belgrade in both legs and in the second leg they won 0-1, holding on to that lead for 63’ after receiving a RED CARD in the 27’.

If I can make one critical point about AEL is that they are not very creative offensively and stumble at times to complete the build. However, when they are presented with an opportunity to strike they usually capitalize on their opponents errors.

What must be noted is that Anderlecht has a key injury in Suarez and forward Jovanovic (who has scored 17 goals in the past 12 months) is unavailable due to suspension.

I don’t want to diminish the quality of Anderlecht, who are a top notch team, have CL experience and are playing at home. However, they did get eliminated last year in this stage by Partizan Belgrade the team AEL just beat in the previous round. I am certain both sides are aware of this interesting fact.

Also an interest point made by soccer journalist John Molinaro:
While the Belgians have the home-field advantage Tuesday and will be favoured to go through, they do have a major psychological barrier to overcome. Anderlecht hasn’t qualified for the Champions League group stage since 2006, and lost four qualifying playoff series between 2008 and 2011.”

In conclusion, I fully expect AEL to play a strong defensive minded first half (and match for that matter) in an effort to limit the number of quality scoring chances for Anderlecht. If they can take a 0-1 lead into half time, it will force Anderlecht to open up and risk a 2nd goal from a counter attack early in the 2nd half. Nil-Nil or a lead at half will be what I am expecting and definitely hoping for to keep the aggregate in my favor.

Be forewarned this is not a popular choice; as it seems (from what I have been reading) the whole world is expecting the Belgians to cover the -1 AH.

AEL Limassol +1 (+105) 2 Units

Anderlecht vs. AEL Limassol Under 2.5 (-120) 1 Unit

!~))!
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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AEL's 7 goals allowed and 2 road goals allowed were #1 in all of Europe last year. not a bad stat for a goal head start
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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Roll, I recall your stat regarding their leagues power ranking and I looked at that again last night to remind myself that the Cyprian league is comparable. Great insight thank you.
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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yeah it's one of those perception vs reality deals. even the overall coefficient is very close with belgium at 11 and cyprus at 13. this match is lined as if there are 10 spots b/w the leagues as people perceive belgian league to be a much higher quality one. i have .75u on both of those same bets myself and also on shmona pk today
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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yeah it's one of those perception vs reality deals. even the overall coefficient is very close with belgium at 11 and cyprus at 13. this match is lined as if there are 10 spots b/w the leagues as people perceive belgian league to be a much higher quality one. i have .75u on both of those same bets myself and also on shmona pk today

Don't know much about the Israeli side, but if you like it I will put 0.5 units on it because I value your insight. I trust they will put on a great show tonight.
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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August 28, 2012
2:45pm

Panathinaikos vs. Malaga
(0-2)

Malaga lead on Aggregate 2-0
(Winning at home in the 1st match)

I mentioned yesterday that I was considering an Over selection in today’s matches and this is it.

I didn’t watch the first leg match but a good Greek friend of mine Vios did and he was emphatic when he said that Malaga is the better team and he was certain that they would advance to the next round.

However, Panathinaikos have every intention of winning this match and they know they need a 2-0 result to have any chance of extending the series. What this tells me is that they have to be more offensive than defensive.

Let’s face it, Panathinaikos will not get a clean sheet today, its defense is not capable and is often unpredictable. If they allow Malaga to score first, they will certainly abandon any thoughts of stopping the Spanish squad in favor of full attack mode.

I expect Malaga to field a full team and more than likely score first; prompting Panathinaikos to really open up this match. Vios also mentioned that the score in the first leg should or could have been much higher and there were many missed opportunities on both sides of the ball.

Strangely enough I expect the Greek side to win this match but I cannot back such a weak defensive team.

Panathinaikos vs. Malaga Over 2.5 (+110) 3 Units

!~))!
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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Sorry for posting the wrong dates above in my first pick, but both matches are Wednesday.

My title is wrong too. I guess I was tired from capping.

Not sure if the moderators could fix this to reflect Aug 28 & 29.

Mia Culpa!!!
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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August 2012 ... +32.5 Units

EPL
11-0
La Liga
2-0
Champions League
4-2
Japan League
2-0
League Championship (Eng)
0-1
Europa League
0-1
Turkish Superlig
0-0-1

Firstly, I want to apologize for the weak results yesterday. Not going to happen again. I had a very busy morning so I am late with my choice.

August 29, 2012
2:45pm

Fenerbahce vs. Spartak

Short and Sweet.............Spartak won the first match 2-1 at home. Tonight they are in Turkey and I believe Spartak will win again. Fenerbahce do not have the defensive personnel to compete in today’s game. They are not the type of defenders that contribute to the offense, they simply clear the ball and that is an important factor in international play.

I expect a war on the field and the pressure will get to the Turkish side and they will eventually break. When comparing leagues; the Russian league is better than the Turkish league and that will be the difference this evening in a mis-match.

Spartak Moscow +0.5 (-135) 4 Units

Spartak Moscow ML (+300) 2 Units

!~))!
 

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I was confused and was not able to find the first 2 plays. I guess they were yesterday, LOL.

I couldn't get Spartak Moscow in either.......it was too late for me. I hope you cash!
 

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By the way, can you consider opening up 1 thread for this league and La Liga and the others? It helps me when i'm trying to follow because i can't always be by a computer......but when you post, the email comes directly to my phone. Not sure if this is possible.....if you can reconsider, that would be awesome. If not, not a big deal. Thanks ARUK!
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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Ok Varkey. I will add a Champions League and La Liga Thread.

Have a great day.
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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ThAnks for the Russian winner today! Needed that 1 super bad.

Late red card working against us too. Wish Spartak Won but the spread is important here.

Stay tuned. :)
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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No plays for me today Varkey, just had leans.

Arsenal Pick
Porto -0.5
PSG -0.5

But not feeling it so I will see if my capping was solid if these come through tomorrow will be a great day.

If you want my written input on these I have it but did not post since I did not wager on them.

I will start a new thread for the whole season as you requested.

BOL
 

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im against arsenal today in a parlay, saw lots of steam against them.. pk went from -164 to -110 or so... they are up 2-1 now, but since u are not on go, GO Montpellier!!
 

When U Win Say Nothing. When U Lose Say Even L
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im against arsenal today in a parlay, saw lots of steam against them.. pk went from -164 to -110 or so... they are up 2-1 now, but since u are not on go, GO Montpellier!!

I hope you win. Like i said i did not wager and you made a bold pick too.

My concern with Monti was their defense. I think they have allowed 10 goals so far in the league and it's their first time in the CL. But their is a 2nd half so let's see how they handle things. BOL.
 

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hopefully they can put atleast 1 more in, i took Malaga ML and Mont PK as a parlay, good payout if it wins since both were at + odds
 

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